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Not just stupid, but nasty and evil-minded. I'll say no more.
I'm cussing everything right now jav.....I'm in a foul mood. Stupid people everywhere I go. It's a wonder the earth turns for their sake. And I thought I was thick.
By all means SG.....I'm tired of wasting my time trying to out-guess those pretty little liar lagging indicators . Just so you know though......I've been as frustrated with fib levels as much as I have been those lying lagging indicators because the fibs to me are much like pivot lines and and ADR lines and levels; it's still a crap shoot figuring out which line the price is going to give due respect to and offer a good 150 pip reversal on. Will it be the 161.8......no.....wait, will it be the 261.8........nope it was the 423.6 give or take 50 pips....and on the larger time frames those fib distances can really take you out for hundreds of pips. Have you found a way to make it really simple, Simple? lol Not being sarcastic, just venting my frustration.
No problem jav......I've had my share of appliance problems lately and can't afford to have new machines delivered/installed.
Since I'm stuck in GU with the shallow descending trend and all the failing divergences that I mentioned in my previous post, it's a pair to apply that momentum/divergence to for me. I'm not following N/U and I can only afford to be wrong on one pair at a time and right now it's GU.
Things to do so I'll be back on later today/evening....
Another thing jav.......I noticed that in most of the examples in that pdf there would have been immediate paper losses before the actual reversal occured as the price would retrace into the evolving eventual swing high/swing low fib "box" and price would finally reverse within that fib box either at the 78.6 fib level, or 50 fib line, or 38.2, or even the 23.6 fib line and I would expect you could even see price pullback in between the 23.6 and the 0.00 line before the reversal would occur. I'm wondering if the best way to play that setup would be to start light at the initial entry mark based on the slack between entry and stop loss. Then add again at the 50 fib line and once again at the 38.2.
I know support/resistance lines can help with determining odds of a reversal, but what else can we do to minimize failed divergence?
GM jav, and thank you for sharing that strategy with the rest of us! I like it and can see where it can be applied along with SGs fib box method for finding exit points and entry points as well as with wave counting and everything else we've learned along the way.
If we could only find a way to keep from entering during periods where you can see divergence on the momentum indi (or TDI or AO or whatever you are using) but the reversal isn't going to happen yet. In point of fact, if you look at the first example of divergence on that pdf you can see where there was divergence on the first price action lower low with a higher high on the momentum indi which might have been falsely interpreted as a reversal point as it preceeded a second price action drop with a second higher high on price action and lower low on momentum before the reversal actually occured.
And sometimes there are three waves of divergence before the reversal occurs and sometimes the price just coninues in the trend, making divergence a moot observation.
So how do we avoid the ineffective divergence? You can improve your odds with the TDI baseline being below 32 for increased odds on a long entry or above 68 line for improved odds on a short entry but even that can fail you. It's usually those damned shallow ascending or descending consolidation waves that kick our butts over and over again. I'm finding that the trix overlay indi window can help, along with combos of other lagging indis, but they can fail you or be misenterpreted too.
Maybe the exits are the easier answer because you are already in profit when you begin to apply them and you could potentially close out multiple positions along the way as each new fib extension is hit, but that doesn't answer the question of how to eliminate false divergence entries or how to avoid having to lock in losses with stops on the original entry.
I'll check it out as soon as it's loaded. Appreciate the updates!
Pennies......what kind of pullback to form a right shoulder on an inverse H&S pattern on your 1 hour GU chart should we be expecting? And if the right shoulder evolves into a test and eventual break of the current low (head) with a break down past that bottom fib box trade level line on your chart then should we expect the next 0% fib line on this current fib box to bring about a bounce?
Well that's 80 pips on GU that I missed out on because I didn't stay up till 3am colorado time or take a stab at an approximate priced open order to fill overnight..
Same ol', same ol'.
I see on that trendline that there is often a touch of it, or a hit and retest of it, by two monthly candles before the price action reversal occurs. I'm assuming that's an illustration of what you're trying to point out. I'm holding for now whether I'm getting your point or not fully. Time to vegetate in front of the TV instead of the computer. I'll check in again before hitting the hay though.
Seems to me though that there's not really much wiggle room at the trendline. Once it breaks that trendline, it could go any number of pips large or small below it and I don't want to risk it.....that's why I'm not holding this current long if it breaks below that trendline. I'll take the smaller hit and protect my larger account balance.
Thank you for confirming my thoughts! I didn't trust the alert and I it sure looked to me like a standard and completed solid 5 A,B,C,D,E waves. That's why I'm not adding and I'm nervous over this current long that we're in on GU. If the E wave is over, couldn't it just drop right through the floor a few hundred pips?
Hey pennies.......I wouldn't mind being wrong at all. Hope you prove right on its reversing tonight or tomorrow.
pennies......maybe a touch on that upper trendline or the 240ema on the 5 at least if not 15 minute chart? The ema5 didn't stop it on the hour chart. Good little scalp if nothing else.
Looks like it's going to be another week or two before GU bounces for us or brings me back to even on my two loser entries. I'm light so it's not wreaking havoc with my account but it's irritating that I have to wait it out.
Thanks SG. I've set my fibs off your dates and I'm off at 1.56926 but that's not a big deal. Hopefully we'll see a bit of bounce there for me to get right on my GU long. I'm about done with not using stop losses.
SG....would you toss us a 4 hour fib box annotated chart so I can see where we're at with GU since I can't trust my fib boxes with the alpari us account?
GM all......I know weekly charts aren't popular for trading from around here as they are too slow and too much happens in between on the 4 hour chart, but when looking at them I do find that they can carry heavy weight in price action.
So GU is still trending lower which has surprised many of us, but where is it going to find a couple hundred pips worth of support? In my chart below I've got a couple trendlines worth considering and we're some 175 pips from hitting the bottom trendline on this current large (wave 4?) triangle. Will that offer support for a good bounce before a possible wave 5 kicks in as I've drawn onto the chart? Or is my wave count off on the weekly chart? Thoughts and opinions are welcome.
Right jav........well I would assume that the TDI alert indi is only as effective as it's programmer wrote it up to be based on his or her understanding of how best to apply and interpret it and even if his or her understanding was very good, there still may be flaws to it. I'm leaving it up with my standard TDI from compassfx site to see how it's lines and signals want to play out in the long run. I'm not tossing it just yet.
Btw, I was reading on the last page of that site I gave a redirect for earlier and I see where "eelfranz" was thought to have passed away. I'll be spending more time going back through the site to gather whatever useful info he had presented. It was a bit sad to read though and just reminded me of my own mortality, especially when I sit here on my ass trying to figure out the secrets to trading forex successfully as other things I'd rather do go undone.
jav......your TDI alert indi is giving a strong sell on the 1 hour and a weak sell on the 4 hour chart with a TDI trend strong up signal. Don't know quite what to make of that. lol
Hey I never thought of that. I've been too busy trying to think of ways to appease her and make her think I'm really worth keeping around while she's putting in all those long hours at work so we can keep up with obamanomics. If it weren't for my doing all the laundry, cooking all the meals and toting her (our) kids back and forth to school like the good househusband I try to be (I even dust and mop floors), I think she'd start to question the value of my existance. LOL
True, very true. Now if only people were more like my chocolate lab.......affectionate, devoted, protective and not easily offended. And all he asks for is to have his ears scratched, his belly rubbed and to be fed as many times during the day as possible. lol
Yep, if only our wives were more like our dogs, except in appearance. lol
LMAO!!! They're not kind at times are they, but it ok though because they love us. Right? Or is that just an assumption? LOL....
Nope......I must declare that you are a true oracle, a seer, a soothsayer and guru. You're a real know-it-all! LOL!!!
j/k! lol....
Sure jav........here's page 1 of 1035 pages bringing you up to jan 21st postings. I'm giving you page 1 because that's where he describes his method of trading. Maybe you can read it and see why he calls it the 5 method. I'm a little thick sometimes. "Trading Made Simple" he calls it. Say....that's what SG should call his room, even it trading really ain't that simple. lol
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?s=3ff9e54c087ac9a2054bd2bd59bcf360&t=291622
Ya know, you're just like the market......you just can't seem to make up your mind, now can ya! lol....
Ok, sounds good. Thanks! eom
Good thing you didn't now that you're neck deep in forex instead of options trading..lol
So where did you expect GU to pin it's final bottom price before really taking off? If we're good to go on this long, I'd like to add since I'm 80 pips under on my 1st two positions already.
Yeah, well if you'd change your membername to krugerands2007, I'd wanna be you! LOL Pennies; the name just doesn't do you justice. I have to admit, boca's a pretty cool name though.
Yeah boca......or ugly, or a "stupid, fat Hobbitses"! LOL....
I know it pennies. I was just having a little fun with ya. ;)
Pennies.......I know the guy is also using the ema5 set typical shift3 and the stochs 8,3,3 for direction confirmation, but other than that I'm a little confused as to how he's calling it a 5 method. He admits to having the occasional stop hit and losing trade but his winners outnumber his losers. Based soley on the current 4 hour GU chart and the way price action is teasing the TDI crossover lines, I'm seeing where these shallow ranging areas can be a bane for his method of trading as it is yours. lol. And my name's not boca!! LOL
GM jav and thanks for sharing. It will indeed be interesting to see how accurate it is in the long run and when it triggers an alert in relation to line crossovers etc..
Hey pennies......GM, and are you familiar with the 5 method using the TDI? I came across it while googling more on javs TDI alert indi. It's essentially a fast line/slow line crossover entry on the 4 hour chart but I couldn't figure out what the actual meaning was of "5 method" and I only see one obvious method which is the crossover. The guy that came up with it enters on the 1st or 2nd crossover candle but not the 3rd and only lets it run till he gets a hook or rollover or "check" on the TDI fast line. I've just come across it so not very familiar with his "method" of trading.
Pileit......not a problem. Fwiw, I've not been able to log on easily nor spend any time on the board today. Anyway, I just wanted to know if you were seeing any bearish hidden divergence on GU when I pm'd you and what you were thinking with U/C at the time, but since then sdcaalan posted four charts (post #112288) showing each form of divergence on the TDI and I was able to orient off his chart to see that there really wasn't any apparent hidden bear divergence on GU. And I'm not in U/C so it doesn't really matter anyway.
Settle down now SG......I hate coors and all the other walmart beers too, so don't feel singled out. And, to be perfectly honest, I must admit to drinking the occasional Killians Irish Red from the local wallyworld chill shelf, so I guess I'm not really any better than you backwoods folk with your roadkill and your budweiser beer. LOL....
Hey SG......I would have replied to this post sooner but I was locked out of ihub for whatever reason. I had to go through admin support to work out an answer to the problem. Fun.
Oh and in reply to your post......noone here would ever think you're the least bit squirrely SG! Would we everyone? snicker, snicker......lol
LMAO!!!.....
Oh no.........I'd rather drink out of the toilet with my chocolate lab! LOL I'll take mine with a nice dark ale. lol....
So SG......do you trade forex when you are testing your employees drugs? And is that maybe why I'm not making a killing at it myself? So do share........which of these drugs are you using while trading? Hmmmmmmm???? LOL