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The clues are all there folks; just connect the dots:
1) Friendly investor who appears to be committed to see Management execute to achieve future milestones = "Dominion"
and just may be the main Financing arm going forward = big capital raise looming here.
2) Multiple MANF Orphan IND's on the way = the technology platform is going to be HUGE (Parkinsons, Ischemic Heart disease, Opthamalogy, TBI, Diabetes....what next)?
3) Becton Dickinson alliance for LymPro (Alzheimers) - $500mm revenue potential = to be commercialized in 2014.
4) Nuropro Diagnostic blood test; can be used for the following future indications:
a)Parkinson’s disease
b)Alzheimer’s disease
c)Lou Gehrig’s disease (ALS)
d)Neuromuscular disease
e)Breast Cancer
f)Chonic Myelogenous Leukemia
5)Outstanding advisor team including people from Amgen, Novartis, Bayer, Bristol Myers Squibb.
I believe the worst is over for this company; as positive news continues to flow; the market cap. will adjust upward to reflect the progress and true underlying value of the asset base.
GLTA!!!
Now why would Gerald want to raise a significant amount of money at $.03; when a LymPro partnership or licensing deal is a reasonable possibility..
You need to see the big picture as to how and why they will leverage their best asset to raise money (timing is an essence). Its senseless to issue a ton of shares to raise a boatload of money on an immediate basis.
Official Shares Outstanding (all issuer classes included):
State the number of shares outstanding of each of the issuer’s classes of common stock, as of the latest practicable date: 460,973,956 common shares as of August 12, 2013 .
Shares outstanding (excludes Preferred shares issued):
Common stock, $0.001 par value - authorized 1,000,000,000 shares; 441,627,659 and 342,516,931 shares issued and outstanding as of June 30, 2013 and December 31, 2012, respectively
NEWS ALERT:
Financing transaction just announced after the close:
http://ir.stockpr.com/amarantus/company-news/detail/824
It will be timely filed.
Quote:
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Gerald,
As an investor who has been here for just about a year now and having endured a DTC chill due to late filings in the past, can I trust management will get this one filed on time?
I know it is easier said than done, but the very notion of "maximizing shareholder value" was brought up in your Chairmans Blog post today, and getting these Q's filed on time is essential to that shareholder value.
Hope to hear from you soon, and I hope everything is well in your life!
Thanks,
XXXX
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Gerald replied to me within minutes;
Quote:
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XXXX
The 10q is being filed late only due to our filing firm being very busy at the deadline. It will be timely filed.
Furthermore, the Chill had absolutely nothing to do with the late filing, contrary to popular belief. When I said in my May Chairman's blog it was no fault of the Company, apparently no one noticed.
Best regards
Gerald
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It was my understanding that someone literally spoke to Gerald (copied his dialogue on the MB here regarding the 10Q filing); and Gerald confirmed that it wont be filed late ...I think it was the poster Brickbybrick (please correct me if I am wrong).
Good points! Its OK to dream as any possible scenario could unfold at any given time.
I think the 10-Q was delayed this time around for the right reasons; it will more than likely include some timely and critical information. GLTA!!!
The future MANF indications may be reflected in the information attached (I think this is where one can deduct a possible road map for MANF):
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=MANF%3A+astrocyte-derived+neurotrophic+factor
From another message board; this person has some above average knowledge of AMBS...wanted to share with everybody here:
"My opinion is that MANF will secure several licensee deals with multiple pharmaceutical companies in the months to come. MANF is capable of being licensed in six defined areas that I am aware. I know because I am very familiar with the technology, MANF, encoded by 4.3 Kb gene with 4 exons, it's located on the short-arm of our chromosome 3, if you're into science and medicine that means marvels for humans to come. Two things I guess around your question, financing is a non-issue. They can secure loans from any equity at any moment, the terms are most critical, clearly Gerald is careful with that, credit to the guy for his efforts thus far. Anyone worried about financing should just leave the stock, you need to understand the technology and it's worth to recognize its potential. Lympro "update" news will be announced any day, literally and will change that game seriously for the company. The original intent was always to license MANF and not run their own human trials, now you see this. I spoke about Orphan and Fast Track Designations when I first came on the board. I suspect three P1 trials will kick in q1. If you can license a platform like MANF, the sky is the limit. You start to gain spontaneous revenue streams and residual royalties. Rubinfeld is here for a reason, the master of this execution. Most of these occur at 5-10% for starting bio's. If the valuation of the disease being treated has a market place of 1b, we would suspected AMBS would look at 50-100mm for such a single agreement. Don't look at it like AMBS will see that 10b from RP, look at the licensing. Keep something in mind with that said, this is spontaneous, unlike waiting for trials to come to fruition. There's a licensee fee and then royalties to follow. A shareholder will recognize two pivotal points before the end of August, assuming someone else doesn't come in screaming with more money. That's not where it stops, watch for two more immediate MANF applications in the next few weeks".
I agree with your assessment and analysis. Its been a very painful drop; I feel good that the inflection area (turning point is now closer than ever).
I think the market is signaling a financing deal is coming (as the PPS has consistently declined and has not rebounded on good news). My prediction; a respectable capital raise will create a high volume washout; and the PPS will begin to rise and ascend on positive news releases (and will react more favorably).
Lastly, lets see how the 10-Q looks this coming week (should be out by Tuesday or Wednesday).
I somewhat agree; he has been explicit about a more significant funding for quite a while now; so I believe his thoughts are quite speculative since that has not materialized yet.
Overall, he is directionally accurate; but he will never know the exact outcomes at all times.
I feel MANF is still way in its infancy; however, the potential is enormous(as Jason N. has indicated in his Zacks analyst report). Also, I feel Dr. Rubinfeld will lead the Orphan indications down the right path.
S/T ...its all about the funding capabilities. Can Gerald attract L/T quality institutions who are willing to finance and progress the Science.
I think Sept. is going to be a HUGE corner and eventually a critical turning point (from a timing standpoint)...as so many possible catalysts are looming (LymPro validation, possible Financing, additional MANF Orphan indications, MANF delivery partnership and jut maybe some progress with NuroPro is looming as well (at leas the remainder of 2013 and 2014 should be very exciting).
In my opinion; the next round of financing should only a final (and decisive) decision by BD or perhaps Lilly (or another interested party) on LymPro. I feel good and somewhat confident once the results are validated by BD (either they or another interested Pharma. will look to potentially partner). Therefore, I hope their wont be any significant dilution down at these levels until that decision is made(keep the bridge financing going until LymPro is validated).
The upcoming 10-Q will get us more information on financing and dilution (it will continue to be quite a journey and ride from here).
I am intrigued with how the next round or phase of financing will play out. Certainly, the company has enormous potential; but I would like to see a high quality venture capital firm or high quality financing institution step in to add to the credibility of the firm.
I truly believe a final bottom will be put in for good (if the financing is significant and accomplished) and then the PPS will begin to adjust to a more proper valuation (over time). Moreover, the Science is so powerful based on preclinical findings ..and can be leverage in many different indications....as recently confirmed by the Orphan data (and knowing it has potential with Parkinsons, TBI, Myocardial infarction, etc). GLTA!!!
One key point in Geralds blog this AM:
"We intend to rely heavily on not-for-profit funding for certain indications in order to minimize shareholder dilution while maximizing patient benefit as we move MANF forward. The economies of scale created by having a single therapeutic candidate treat multiple diseases cannot be overstated, as development milestones in one area support further development in the others".
Its extremely important to know he is tring to minimize dilution; but they will need a significant capital raise sooner than later (I wish he spent some more time expanding on this important topic as well).
Lets get about $.04 I am confident it will happen today). GLTA!!!
Gerald is on record stating that the early Orphan MANF indications will be the eye and ear (lets see if the next set of data aligns to the an ear related indication).
Could you imagine what our PPS will do once a formidable capital raise is announced. The opportunities are enormous; the MANF technology could be a MAJOR jackpot and if the proper funding is aligned and put in place.....the sky is the limit.
Thanks for posting this outstanding presentation:
Includes all the latest data, timelines, market size potential and clearly articulates commercialization readiness and potential for LymPro and MANF.
There are so many activities in play across their portfolio ....it is only a matter of time before investors will recognize the enormous potential this company has with its Science.
One key note: Once the Performance analysis study is completed in Q3 for LymPro...it will open the door to partnership possibilities with any Pharma. or Diagnostic based companies. Moreover, AMBS has retained full ownership of the LymPro asset; which can allow them to negotiate with any 3rd party to partner with them....so keep in mind that BD will most likely get and take the first shot (assuming the test meets the necessary milestones...don't rule out that Lilly or another large Pharma. could step in as well.
These are truly exciting times for this organization; I believe its a steal to buy and/or accumulate this stock ahead of a very busy 3rd quarter (and beyond).
What good is going to do to bash the CEO endlessly? You have very positive developments with BD (and LymPro)and MANF Orphan drug data that will be released shortly (indicating the MANF programs will be moving forward).
Until the company rectifies its financial position (we are stalled...that will get resolved in due time).
Go play golf or head to the beach...the sun will shine another day.
I am looking for lower lows; and higher highs on the chart. Be patient folks.
Honestly, I could care less...the fundamental picture is solid and bright going forward...and if the S/T flippers aren't happy...see ya.
What do you expect to occur for an young, junior biotech company in its infancy. As per Gerald's game-plan, I strongly believe that execution here has been very good.
What most want here is a huge partnership where the PPS rises exponentially overnight (those individuals are selling out on a day like today...as the expectations that our PPS will skyrocket aren't happening....and they are bailing).
The faithful longs are those who will be rewarded.
Who exactly is the "market" as you define it? Do you think their are many institutions who can trade this stock at $.03-$.04? More than likely, it will be retail buyers who will move this higher or lower at these levels (as before).
And exactly how do you know its only a client service agreement? I guess you presume Gerald has publicly stated, shared and defined the exact relationship between the two parties for the definite future? Huh?
A Licensing deal with BD could come at any time.....whether its based on certain milestones, scientific validation of their own scientists or simply based on agreeable terms (yet to be defined...anything is possible going forward).
Absolutely agree...but to do any major dilutive equity financing now would be borderline idiotic. I hope Gerald was astute and savvy enough to leverage the future relationship with BD (a LymPro licensing deal makes the most sense going forward).
Thank you for that information. I was hoping it was a method of accelerating the commercialization plans and to start generating revenue earlier.
Does anybody have further knowledge and expertise to translate this statement? This communication was part of Geralds Mid year update this AM.
Specifically.....Why a CLIA waived test?
"In the next 6 months, we expect to be initiating a pivotal clinical study to support the commercial launch of LymPro as a CLIA-waived Laboratory-Developed Test ("LDT")".
Great post! You are right on the money my friend. I don't know what exactly people are looking for or want for this company to be successful (at this point in the journey to making progress with future commercialization of their drug development programs and products...to reach commercialization).
Bottom line: They are making significant progress with reaching their stated goals and objectives. Its very transparent in Gerlads communication and update.
I guess you will need to take Reading 101 all over again. Fundamentally, this company is well on track and executing its gameplan effectively.
LymPro has enormous potential and Gerald has indicated that its full speed ahead. They are going to add new talent and expertise and now have an solid relationship with Becton Dickinson to commercialize LymPro (what you need to understand is that Amarantus will retain full rights meaning they wont have to share the revenues or pay royalties at this time).
MANF programs will now be accelerated as they have identified Orphan indications to speed the process. It sounds very promising that their will be an IND sometime next year for one Orphan indication. Also, they have purchased a Phase IIb compound that will be developed within a year (for Parkinsons too).
Lastly, the capability to obtain the necessary funding/financing will now only increase as the company hits their milestones (I would not want any dilutive deals to occur down at these prices....we had enough dilution already).
Long term bulls will be happy to hear the positive news/update. The S/T flippers and quick buck artists will more than likely leave (and that's a good thing).
Its great to see the volume come back into the buy side; it appears that $.04 is a very major resistance level and minor resistance is at $.05 (it might take news to get through these levels...but it could be smooth sailing above these prices).
GLTA!!
It will be interesting to see how the much the PPS reacts to positive news. Hopefully, we will have less motivated sellers on the way up as we reach clinical milestones.
I want our management team to finalize one last finance arrangement to progress us through LymPro commercialization (minimizing the downside risk). Also, I think their will be a surprise collaboration on the MANF side (to expedite commercialization for the MANF Orphan indications).
Better times ahead....the longs have earned greater returns on our investment. GLTA!!!
A big victory indeed; our mission and plan is well in tact. I expect Gerald is going to heat things up over the next few business days (or moving into next week).
Overall, I think Gerald had every intention to clear the DTC Chill issue before releasing meaningful news (its just best for shareholders to get a nice pop in any positive news). Moreover, the future looks brighter than ever...be patient as to initial reaction to this specific news (which was an 8-k release)..it will take some time to get noticed.
Although I am highly against any Reverse split; it would not be wise for Gerald to raise significant monies and dilute down at these levels. He would better suited to do a more modest R/S ....and then raise funding where it will be less highly dilutive.
I am feel really good about the quiet nature of our PPS; I believe their are many attractive options for Gerald to take going forward (hence, he is allowing the things to come together patiently). Of course; its my own personal and speculative theory....but the momentum is about to change...as it appears we have bottomed out and have been building a base around $.03 (always could be another shakeout out lower before moving higher).
GLTA!!!
If your were CEO of a company and had something good to share with the market; and the stock market was in a free fall or correcting sharply ....would you release the good news? No effect on the PPS whatsoever?
I am not presuming that every CEO in America practices this reality; but if a CEO was smart and tried to time it properly....they most certainly would consider it.
Wall street is a dirty game..its not always about whats right; its about what works for influenced interests (I am sure you can read between the lines).
I believe it would be wise for Gerald to resolve the Chill issue before releasing any meaningful news. Letts keep in mind that releasing MANF Orphan drug data does not have any relation to it being an FDA based news driven event. Specifically, the goal is to identify and indicate what areas MANF could be effective that would accelerate the possibility that the FDA could expedite approval down the road.
Since AMBS and BD have collaborated months in advance of the lab certification announcement; its possible that the LymPro program is much further along then most might be aware of ...hence, its Geralds call as to time communicating the progress with meeting the next milestone.
BlackH - I think you are trying to provide a bullet proof logical argument as to why companies should or should not release news on an immediate basis or when know......but as publicly traded companies are heavily aligned to Wall Street (it will never surprise me to see any CEO time the market to get the best positive upside with the PPS (its common sense).
Good point....there are many funding possibilities that exist going forward. Govt., State, Agency, Private equity, Corporate....the Science will play a major role in attracting the right funding (this could get really exciting over the next 1-6 months).
You are simply missing the point. There are multiple S/T catalysts that AMBS management has laid out (within their business plan) that will unfold very shortly. If they happen to materialize in a positive way; it will give management more leverage to find more creative and suitable financing options going forward.
They could do an additional S/T bridge financing to get them through potential LymPro commercialization; however, if BD comes to bat and orchestrates a partnership and/or collaboration for LymPro (the massive dilution scenario is a foregone conclusion).
You are thinking in myopic terms; see the bigger picture.
As we move forward, I am excited at the prospects that our company will blossom to a more mature company (going from its infancy to a true player in the biotech space). Jason Napodano has built a reasonable argument that once our PPS gets adequate funding; you just might see a paradigm shift in how Wall street values the company (obviously, it would get more fairly valued...which Jason has insuated that $.25 was a closer to or near a proper valuation). Certainly, it wont happen overnight...but as strong or positive news is released...it will build credibility with the Street and things will progress our stock price higher (over time).
What remains to be seen is if Gerald can avoid the nasty R/S (which is by far my worst fear). I hope that the MANF Orphan data and a new update on the LymPro program will become available within a week or two). Overall, the sentiment has gotten really bad here; but I believe the true bonus is any sign that funding has been secured and the capability to fund operations (up through a possible Lympro commercialization) does exist. GLTA!!!
Who would you rather hear from ...Investors relations or the CEO. I think you need to re-think your thought process if you were a shareholder. I find it deeply respectful that Gerald stays aligned to his investors...its something he wont be able to do forever (but its a luxury in my opinion for now).