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2xer, this was meant for you.
Didn't get as good of an entry. Went long around ~3:45 on QLDs.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=29894310
2, thanks.
Intraday, it looks like a double bottom. But on the daily, the ndx up trend is broken. I am thinking may be a retest/kiss of broken trendline ~88 for the QLD and 200dma which may act as resistance.
2xer did you close out before the close? Decided to open a long position with QLD, holding over night. Hope not to get heart burn tomorrow morning.
CJ, I thought that a megaphone is a bearish pattern. What exactly does that mean for gold now that it's dropped out of the megaphone trendlines? I'm not sure I fully understand the Gold to Oil ratio. Aren't they both suppose to move in the same direction which is up as the USD drops? Strange that Gold isn't really moving up as the USD drops and OIL spikes. Does this mean gold is going to drop further? Daily charts shows $GOLD being repelled by the 50dma. I guess we'll see in the next few days if it can break through.
OT Oman, we got a lot of snow in the cascades this year. I was going to try summiting Mt. St. Helens during memorial weekend, but the roads to the parking lot/trail were still closed because of too much snow. The NPS ranger said a typical one day summit up the winter route is taking 2-3 days now since you have to do a 1 day hike in 12-14+ feet of snow just to get to the trail. I need to make some mountaineering friends up here in Seattle, my wife didn't want to do it so I may have to go solo. (Helens is the smallest out of the 5 well known mountains in the cascades.) Probably wouldn't do Rainer or Mt. Adams alone.
I think you are right there Blash. Just got back from installing 5 cans (recess lights and ran a new 15amp circuit) for my sister after I sold this morning at SP1377. (Too early again.) But anyhow a win is a win.
VXO rising looks to hit ~26 from the inv. H+S target, CPCE curling back up. TRIN & TRINQ shows a ST bottom, but probably a good place to short the bounce.
QQQQ Daily trendline broke today. (EDIT - NDX last piece in the puzzle, all other major indices are in a downtrend.)
$VXO... breaking out above neckline of Inv. H+S. Let's see in the next couple days if they close that gap. Still thinking it can hit ~26 based on the Inv. H+S count.
Dan,
More middle east crap as usual.
Friday June 6, 12:35 pm ET
By Adam Schreck, AP Business Writer
Oil prices jump to near $135 a barrel on weaker dollar and prediction of price spike
"We had a rally of something like $12 in about 24 hours. It makes no fundamental sense," said Stephen Schork, an analyst and trader in Villanova, Pa. "With oil pushing back up to the mid-$130s, it's the make it or break it point. If we go past that, we set the course for uncharted waters and head up toward $150."
Growing tensions in the Middle East may also have helped prop up oil prices. Israel sent aircraft, tanks and ground troops into the Gaza Strip on Friday, and a Cabinet minister hoping to replace embattled Prime Minister Ehud Olmert was quoted as saying Israel will attack Iran if it doesn't abandon its nuclear program.
2-bit, I've switched to just pivot points, 3/7 MAs and S/R for short-term 5min charts, but for long-term weekly/daily stuff still use RSI, MACD and 50/200MAs.
I just have to learn to trade the damn triggers and not be all emotional at times. (That's the hard part.)
Out and flat... Hit my price objective of 58.36 and SPX 1377. Will figure out what to do next.
TRIN near-term top. If not down late afternoon, probably tomorrow morning. Hopefully I can get back even. (EDIT - SDS currently @ 56.78. Entry @ 57.22 SPX 1392ish. Should've waited around 1400 to enter.)
Gleno, not that this means anything, but, $NDX and QQQQs have all closed the Jan gap. $COMPX and QLD has not. There is still a gap at ~2594 and $95.
Be, decided to try SDS today. SPX looks weaker than NDX and is below the daily trendline. In SDS at 57.22 (edit crossing fingers), but 5 mins looks like it is starting to rollover on the SPX.
Foot, I am trying to stay objective here. This trendline hasn't broken for the NDX and until then I'm not planning to hold any shorts too long. (LOL). BTW there has been a symmetric triangle from the October top. I drew a line coming off of that and the bottom line from the march lows. Looks like we broke the triangle up today. The high for today on QQQQs so far is 50.40. The old QQQQ high was at 50.47.
Blasher and 2bit, thanks for the advice. I will keep them in mind.
Yup never fails. Always leaving quite a bit on the table. I need to figure out a way to stay in/stick with the trend. May be I need to look out further on my charts instead of 5min, may be 10-15min.
Me too... Out 37.95. I think NDX may go down lower today. Probably left some on the table again.
That sucks. That must mean you're rich. LOL. Well I've been sick of paying AMT. No kids, but I should be able to deduct my dog as an expense, she's been costing me an arm/leg lately. Ear and respiratory infection. X-rays, meds, diarrhea, etc. I almost killed her a week ago when I ran 6 miles. She kept hacking 1/2 way through and couldn't keep up.
Anyhow what is your price objective for this move? I'm looking at around ~38.16. But I've always left crap on the table. (Who knows we may not even get there.)
OT - Wow I did not know they rose it significantly this year. Crap... At least it's only 12.4% if you are Self-employed. Thinking of taking a 1099 contracting gig. I think SS Tax for 1099 use to be 15.5% at one point. (Although I do not think I will see any of it in when I retire.)
For the year 2008, the Social Security Wage Base is $102,000. Since 2000, the SSWB has been:
Year Wage Base
2008 $102,000
2007 $97,500
2006 $94,200
2005 $90,000
2004 $87,900
2003 $87,000
2002 $84,900
2001 $80,400
2000 $76,200
Yeah... It's worse then watching paint dry right now. Trying to see if we roll over here on the 5min.
QID 1st rez at 37.62. Testing right now.
Yeah I know... May be it was a boneheaded thing to do since the Daily trend is still up for the NDX. The 5min chart looks like a possible bullish flag for NDX/QLD. I have my finger on the button.
Be - I jumped in at the 11:28 QID at 37.48. My finger is on the trigger too. May only make a dime or breakeven on this.
Banks and Brokers are funny. 1st it was all about downgrading each other. (Were they hoping that customers may jump ship and go to them if they decide to say something bad about their competition?) Now they are trying to upgrade each other. (Is it b/c they are really worried? - the house of cards type deal.)
BTW - Oil is weird... So this report came out:
"The Department of Energy just announced that crude inventories for the week ended May 30 fell 4.8 million barrels, compared to the expected increase of 400,000 barrels."
But we are now down to $122.98 for crude from the $135 high and down $1.38 today. (Not that I am complaining, since gas is $4.35 for 87. But the markets never make any sense.) I only read these headlines now for amusement then anything else.
Well the $NDX gap is closed. HOD so far is 2033.67. Top of the gap was 2032.57. Now what... Still waiting for the 5min 3/7MAs to roll over.
OT Yeah it is a membership deal. I use it a lot and upgraded a couple years ago to the Exec Member where you get back 2% on all purchases. It worked out well as I moved from the east to west coast and bought a lot of new furniture, new tires, etc through them. But in terms of savings, food is definitely a lot cheaper than Safeway/Albertson/QFC, etc, but quality IMO is better than Walmart. The funiture is all solid wood, nice dove-tail joints, etc, not the crappy mdf.
Geez... It looks like they want to close that $NDX gap from 5/30 close to 6/2 open. Close on 5/30 - 2,032.57. Open on 6/2 - 2,026.58.
Speaking of WMT what about COST (Costco)? Walmart seems like it will do well for less affluent americans, but Costco seems like it will do well for the middle/high-middle class. But may be the middle class is in too much debt? I shop at costco for just about everything.
Testing the 50dma right now.
(Edited - Dan, hope you get better soon.)
Good call, looks like 49.61 may be the top for now? I am still flat waiting patiently on the 5min to go short with QID.
I would feel much better if the QQQQs dropped below this daily trendline. Nasdaq is still pretty strong, unlike the DJIA and SPX which have already dropped below their daily trendline.
I think he's refering to Bill-Hillary-Obama.
Be, looks like they want to try to close it green. I am flat too. Didn't take the entry at 14:45 to go long on the 5min. I have to get ready for a job interview in an hour. So tonight, I will try to figure out what to do tomorrow.
If $NDX can stay about 1975 the daily uptrend appears to remain in tact. It will be interesting the next 2-3 days to see whether we stay above/below 1975. Above 1975 w/ brad turn date, and Foot may be right, which means more up.
Crap... Sure is volatile today. Didn't take the signal to go long. QLD just hit 87.25 2mins after I posted.
I was reading up on Derivatives a couple months ago and JPM and Citi scares the heck out of me. If I remember correctly, JPM has 1.2 trillion in assets but 95 trillion in derivatives outstanding. Citi is slightly bigger and has 32 trillion in derivatives.
QLD at Daily Trendline support. Is anyone going long before the close. (may be a DCB tomorrow morning?) 5min MA just crossed up on my charts at around $86.
(Edit - MACD looks bad, and under 200ma)
On another note, BKX looks bad, making new lows.
She is 3 years old. I've been walking her a lot for the past 2 days. She ate something bad... She was having the runs every 3 hours yesterday. Today she seems much better. But I agree. It was our test before having kids. (We live in a 2br apt. downtown in Seattle on the top floor, so I have to walk 2-3 blocks just to find a small strip of grass for her to do her biz.)
$VXO - 21.12. EOM. (Edit- Still too close around the neckline, will be watching.) I am waiting for the next signal... Not sure I want to jump back in QID even though I sold out too soon.
I meant to send this to you gleno...
Crap... On phone. Left my sell order at 38.65. Out now. QID just hit 38.93.
BTW - Quit my job and this is the 1st 2 days that I've been at home. The only job right now is to walk the dog, and make sure I don't lose money. LOL...
Crap... On phone. Left my sell order at 38.65. Out now. QID just hit 38.93.
Next point of rez for QID is around 38.57 on the 5min.
Wow be, that was a quick drop. I was a bit nervous when I switched out my QLD and entered some QID this morning around 11 AM.
Gleno, wonder if they try to close the NDX opening gap. Yesterday's close 2006.84. Currently at 2013.58.