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Caterpillar Delivered Some Terrible News
Caterpillar Just Delivered Some Terrible News For The Global Economy
MYLES UDLAND
JAN. 27, 2015, 8:10 AM
http://www.businessinsider.com/caterpillar-q4-earnings-2015-1
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) -NYSE
79.73 Down 6.30(7.32%) 10:54AM EST - Nasdaq
Insight China (10) World Largest Crawler Crane
XCMG XGC88000 Crawler Crane (4000 ton) - World Largest Crawler Crane
Geo-Economic Series include:
- The great transition that reshape the world orders
- Insight China - outline the competing status in the world economy
- Miscellaneous hot Geo-Economic events
China has gained market shares in construction equipment market.
Caterpillar and Komatsu, as well as Chetra and Liebherr, will find China counterpart is becoming very tough rival.
Youtube Video (4 mins:59 secs)
01/27/15 Gold
1,289.60 +9.20 (+0.72%)
15:19:57 GMT - Real-time CFD Data. Currency in USD
http://www.investing.com/commodities/gold-historical-data
Gold future peaked at 1308.80 on 01/22, the performance was weaker than the mean 1313.5 between the two targets 1289 and 1338. IMHO. without regaining the 1300 level in the next few sessions, then Gold has reached a short term peak.
session low
Jan 27, 2015 1273.30
Jan 26, 2015 1276.60
archive:
Friday, 01/23/15 10:30:04 AM
Gold is testing the support 1289 (former resistance, target)
Tuesday, 01/20/15 09:50:40 AM
Gold is testing the target 1289
Upon the testing result, the bullish target is 1338
Thursday, 01/15/15 10:11:57 AM
Gold is testing the resistance 1258
Upon the testing result, the bullish target is 1289
01/27/15 UUP USD
sold the rest of UUP.
imho, USD may have reached a short term peak
94.40 -0.88 (-0.93%)
15:14:26 GMT - Real-time CFD Data. Currency in USD
http://www.investing.com/quotes/us-dollar-index-historical-data
session high
Jan 27, 2015 95.32
Jan 26, 2015 95.85
Jan 25, 2015 95.86
Jan 23, 2015 95.78
Jan 22, 2015 94.77
archive:
Friday, 01/23/15 09:49:30 AM
meet resistance, take partial profit, set stop for the rest.
Monday, 01/05/15 09:54:57 AM
have mentioned UUP the other day, it moves ‘slow’, but it moves in the right direction.
USD middle term target 95-96 (approx.)
When a long-term trend loses it’s momentum
A Look at 9 Quotes from George Soros
Posted by Ivanhoff on August 23rd, 2012
http://ivanhoff.com/2012/08/23/a-look-at-9-quotes-from-george-soros/
“When a long-term trend loses it’s momentum, short-term volatility tends to rise. It is easy to see why that should be so: the trend-following crowd is disoriented.”
“A surprising countertrend pop or drop reminds investors of the risks involved and all of a sudden the fear of losing (giving back gains) becomes bigger than the fear of missing out. This is the beginning of the end of the established trend. It doesn’t end here, but it is a damn good spot to consider closing positions and moving to something else. The distribution/accumulation stage is in full force.”
>>ahimsak: big pain in second half
Hurst Cycles ....
coincides with what i have reported before, a 'respectful' low near March/April. 'Sometimes', this kind academia work is a 'fatal attraction'. i have been 'zapped' a few times. Aiyaaya ... read at your own peril
FYI FWIW
----------------------------------
January 23, 2015 by David Hickson
chart: http://hurstcycles.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SP500-23-01-2015.jpg
full text source: http://hurstcycles.com/markets-and-manipulation/
entertainment
Good Ole Hurst Cyclist 'SilentOne' suffered a big arrow, Sigh!
$USB US 30 YR Treasury Bonds, Secular top ahead but when?
SilentOne Jan 17 2015, 04:12 PM
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=158352
Insight China (9) deep water semi-submersible drilling platform
Geo-Economic Series include:
- The great transition that reshape the world orders
- Insight China - outline the competing status in the world economy
- Miscellaneous hot Geo-Economic events
The drilling platform development team continues writing new brilliance. with an average age of only 30, the design team took 4 years, accompolished China's first 3000-meter deep water semi-submersible drilling platform task.
"Ocean Oil 981" 3000 meter deep water semi-submersible drilling platform operates in South China Sea
sources:
http://www.guancha.cn http://bbs.miercn.com
http://www.guancha.cn/Science/2015_01_20_306914.shtml
Prior:
10/10/14
Insight China (8) China automobile Chapter One
link
OPTION MILLIONAIRES - a very active traders' thread
http://investorshub.advfn.com/Option-Millionaires-12013/
>> wildcard would be more stimulus from China
China rules out large fiscal investments to boost economy
Updated: 2015-01-08 15:41 Chinadaily.com.cn
http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2015-01/08/content_19274190.htm
China will not inject large amount of newly added fiscal investment to stimulus the economy in 2015, a senior official of the National Development and Reform Commission said on Thursday.
"The critical point is, we won't use large amount of newly added fiscal investment to stimulus economy, but instead guide social capitals participation in investment, that's a very important policy direction,"
This is a more effective way:
China’s millions of government workers to get huge 60% pay raise
By Caixin Online
Published: Jan 22, 2015 12:38 a.m. ET
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-millions-of-government-workers-to-get-huge-60-pay-raise-2015-01-21
Pension for enterprise retirees beat the CPI increase
Published: 16:08:21 2015/1/16 16:08:21
from January 1, 2015, China's basic pension for enterprise retirees will be increased by 10%, which is our tenth consecutive year of continuous adjustment of corporate retirement pensions,
http://www.getinews.com/news-9310240-Pension-for-enterprise-retirees-beat-the-CPI-increase.html
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) & ECRI
soft
ECRI weekly
https://www.businesscycle.com/
10-Oct-14 134.1 +1.0
17-Oct-14 131.8 -0.1
24-Oct-14 131.5 -1.3
31-Oct-14 132.6 -2.0
07-Nov-14 132.2 -2.8
14-Nov-14 133.1 -2.3
21-Nov-14 131.5 -2.3
28-Nov-14 132.4 -2.4
05-Dec-14 132.4 -2.3
12-Dec-14 131.1 -3.0
19-Dec-14 130.9 -3.3
26-Dec-14 129.9 -4.2
02-Jan-15 130.2 -4.9
09-Jan-15 130.9 -5.0
16-Jan-15 130.5 -5.0
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)
January 23, 2015
https://www.chicagofed.org/~/media/publications/cfnai/2015/cfnai-january2015-pdf.pdf?la=en
https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/cfnai/index
Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –0.05 in December from +0.92 in November. None of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from November, and two of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in December.
SPX pivot 2069.93
my archive:
Saturday, 01/17/15 04:53:59 PM
While the general consensus has reached an overwhelmed bullishness level. To be bullish, the serious test remains in between 2069.93 and 2130.46.
SPX Short term reversal
< 2018.78 to resume the decline.
> 2069.93 back to bullish mode
TWT Analysis 23 JAN 2015
SPX: The Exuberant Uptrend Is Back
http://www.thewavetrading.com/spx-exuberant-uptrend-back/#more-8217
so far with the available price information I am considering two potential scenarios that should lead to a Major Top:
1. Ending Diagonal:
http://charts.stocktwits.com/production/original_31639020.png?1421961723
2. Triangle:
http://charts.stocktwits.com/production/original_31639130.png?1421961799
The 50 dma will determine which scenario could be the correct one
China Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP in 2014
Highlights: Premier Li's government work report
BEIJING, March 5 (Xinhua)
http://english.sina.com/china/2014/0304/680304.html
MAJOR TARGETS FOR 2014
-- Gross domestic product (GDP) grows about 7.5 percent
Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP in 2014
National Bureau of Statistics of China 2015-01-22 09:50
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/201501/t20150122_672565.html
According to the preliminary estimation, the gross domestic product (GDP) of China was 63,646.3 billion Yuan in 2014, an increase of 7.4 percent at comparable prices.
In 2014 the China GDP figure hit a 24-year low
This is the second year the Tertiary Industry (service sector) surpasses Secondary Industry (manufacturing sector) . A very clear sign that China’s economy intrinsic is evolving from an emerging to a developed nation, to the western standard, it is still a long way to go.
2014. amount-100-million Yuan, (Y/Y growth rate)
Gross Domestic Products..636463 (7.4)
Primary Industry..........58332 (4.1)
Secondary Industry......271392 (7.3)
Tertiary Industry..........306739 (8.1)
2013
Gross Domestic Products.568845 (7.7)
Primary Industry..........56957 (4.0)
Secondary Industry.....249684 (7.8)
Tertiary Industry.........262204 (8.3)
China’s Economy Realized a New Normal of Stable Growth in 2014
National Bureau of Statistics of China 2015-01-20 10:00
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/201501/t20150120_671038.html
biased view. No love
XXXy Jan 19 2015, 07:50 PM
if anyone believes China's GDP rate of growth slowed only 0.1-0.2% last year, i have some swamp land beach front property in NJ to sell you!
XXXX2 Jan 19 2015, 08:01 PM
I wonder which sectors were removed from the GDP calculation? They learned to rig the numbers from us, likely.......... I've been reading that better estimates of their GDP is ~5%.
01/23/15 Gold (PHYS NUGT DUST)
Gold Futures - Feb 15 (GCG5)
1,288.00 -12.70 (-0.98%)
15:22:20 GMT - Real-time CFD Data. Currency in USD
http://www.investing.com/commodities/gold-historical-data
Gold is testing the support 1289 (former resistance, target)
Gold Extends Losses as Profit Taking, Technical Correction Featured Heading Into Weekend
Friday January 23, 2015 8:23 AM
http://www.kitco.com/news/2015-01-23/Gold-Weaker-On-Corrective-Pullback-Surging-US-Dollar.html
archive:
Tuesday, 01/20/15 09:50:40 AM
Gold is testing the target 1289
Upon the testing result, the bullish target is 1338
Thursday, 01/15/15 10:11:57 AM
Gold is testing the resistance 1258
Upon the testing result, the bullish target is 1289
http://www.chartupload.com/images/58751227075551255825.jpg
USD chart by Mike Larson
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/media/mam/2015/3167/chart1s.jpg
Dollar Rally Drives Deflation Fears — Will It Persist?
Mike Larson | Friday, January 23, 2015 at 7:30 am
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/dollar-rally-drives-deflation-fears-will-persist-69572
01/23/15 UUP USD
95.25 +0.58 (+0.62%) (94.35 - 95.77)
14:32:05 GMT - Real-time CFD Data. Currency in USD
http://www.investing.com/quotes/us-dollar-index-historical-data
meet resistance, take partial profit, set stop for the rest.
Monday, 01/05/15 09:54:57 AM
have mentioned UUP the other day, it moves ‘slow’, but it moves in the right direction.
USD middle term target 95-96 (approx.)
Beyond Bulls And Bears: A Wall Street Bestiary
Beyond Bulls And Bears: A Wall Street Bestiary
AUGUST 12, 201110:40 AM ET
http://www.npr.org/2011/08/12/139554818/beyond-bulls-and-bears-a-wall-street-bestiary
Hog — This is the animal that bulls, bears and sheep shape-shift into "when they lose their senses," according to Alan Abelson, writing for Barron's in 2009. "Hogs have long occupied an important and unique place in Wall Street's bestiary."
ahimsak: Arch Crawford has a 5% Stop
i took loss on 18 SPX points, 3X ETF is scary.
will wait ECB QE saga settles, may re-short upon the conditions
FYI
------------------------------
Arch Crawford perspectives
January 5, 2015 Vol. 15/1
http://www.crawfordperspectives.com/documents/CP15_Jan5.pdf
State of the Union Address - an excerpt
For Immediate Release
January 20, 2015
Remarks of President Barack Obama – As Prepared for Delivery State of the Union Address
http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/01/20/president-obamas-state-union-address-prepared-delivery
21st century businesses, including small businesses, need to sell more American products overseas. Today, our businesses export more than ever, and exporters tend to pay their workers higher wages. But as we speak, China wants to write the rules for the world’s fastest-growing region. That would put our workers and businesses at a disadvantage. Why would we let that happen? We should write those rules. We should level the playing field. That’s why I’m asking both parties to give me trade promotion authority to protect American workers, with strong new trade deals from Asia to Europe that aren’t just free, but fair.
take loss on SPXU
wait for new opportunity
archive:
01/15/15 02:31:35 PM
mental stop around SPX 2028-2030.
01/17/15 04:53:59 PM
the serious test remains in between 2069.93 and 2130.46.
SPX Short term reversal
< 2018.78 to resume the decline.
> 2069.93 back to bullish mode.
Johnson-&-Johnson Facing Headwinds From A Stronger Dollar
1/20/2015 @ 9:48AM
link
Johnson & Johnson's Fourth Quarter Sales Got Whacked By Currencies
Business Insider (Tue 10:25AM EST)
link
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Stock Falls Today After Lowering 2015 Earnings Forecast
BY Sebastian Silva | 01/20/15 - 10:07 AM EST
link
Barchart.com Support/Resistance Levels
Pivot Point 1st Level Resistance
2,030.50
Pivot Point 1st Level Support
1,998.23
38.2% Retracement from 4 Week Low
2,028.39 (actual 2028.94, in progress)
http://www.barchart.com/cheatsheet.php?sym=$SPX
01/20/15 Gold
Gold Futures - Feb 15 (GCG5) 1,290.10 +13.20 (+1.03%)
14:49:20 GMT - Real-time CFD Data
http://www.investing.com/commodities/gold-historical-data
Gold is testing the target 1289
Upon the testing result, the bullish target is 1338
archive
-----------------------------------------
Thursday, 01/15/15 10:11:57 AM
Gold is testing the resistance 1258
Upon the testing result, the bullish target is 1289
http://www.chartupload.com/images/58751227075551255825.jpg
jumanji: your question is beyond my scope
Geo-economic - the chess moves again
MOSCOW, December 23, 2014 (Sputnik)– Kyrgyzstan
signed a deal to join the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union
President of Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, President of Armeniathe President, Russia President Vladimir Putin, Belarus, President of Kyrgyzstan, President (12/23/2014)
China-Belarus Industrial Park, 25 km from Minsk.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China-Belarus_Industrial_Park
The big picture is clear:
China, Russia and Europe will establish an across the entire Europe-Asia Continent Economic zone.
let me borrow the words from Gerald Celente
"All the pieces keep adding up into a very serious economic and geopolitical game changer for 2015"
ahimsak: ECRI weekly growth rate
has dipped into negative territory since Oct-10-2014. it is getting worse lately
Let us know more about what your uncle's outlook, Thank You
10-Oct-14 134.2 0.9
17-Oct-14 131.7 -0.3
24-Oct-14 131.5 -1.4
31-Oct-14 132.5 -2.1
07-Nov-14 132.0 -2.9
14-Nov-14 133.1 -2.4
21-Nov-14 131.6 -2.4
28-Nov-14 132.3 -2.5
05-Dec-14 132.3 -2.4
12-Dec-14 131.1 -3.1
19-Dec-14 130.9 -3.3
26-Dec-14 129.8 -4.2
02-Jan-15 130.1 -5.0
09-Jan-15 131.1 -5.0
(Source from ECRI web site)
01/17/15 Outlook
Review:
Monday, 12/08/14 02:19:23 PM
Middle term upper rail projection
link
SPX http://www.chartupload.com/images/99280192870917928554.jpg
2079.76 2104.27
2069.93 2085.06 2100.20 2115.20 2130.46
DJI http://www.chartupload.com/images/35572302753628157028.jpg
18062 18657
17975 18103 18230 18357 18485
Palo Alto & Mountain View
Palo Alto area 25.787 sq mi (66.787 km2)
Mountain View area 12.273 sq mi (31.788 km2)
near the center of the Silicon Valley, very small city in land size
With so many high tech/high pay companies such as LinkedIn, Google in this area, it drives real estate red hot, a pure Local phenomenon.
01/16/15 closing
did not watch the whole session.
SPX closed near the 2019 pivot,
- a 0.764 retracement put Index at 2020.09
0.764 * (2064.43-2022.58) + 1988.12 = 2020.09 (actual 2020.46)
- Moves above 2022.58, needs to think about different wave structure.
intraday resistance
2022.58
2024.36
2029.97
intraday lower supports
1994.60
1987.57
1978.61
archives
01/16/15 10:59:42 AM
SPX intraday critical support 1988.46 (EDIT: actual 1988.12)
01/15/15 09:48:09 AM
Pivot 2019
01/16/15 SPX intraday critical support 1988.46
intraday low 1988.12, in progress
intraday supports
1989.38 0.764
1988.46 0.786
1979.50 1.000
intraday resistance (approx)
2004.9
2008.7
PCLN . . . . . . .
is defending its 1000 mark. How much is Price Line really worth?
rab120 . . . . . . .
I bought SPXU @40.36, i have a mental stop around SPX 2028-2030.
Short term lower target
200 SMA
T1 1979.50-1953.64 (based on latest data, fast market)
T2 1963.32-1900.82 (01/13/15 04:51:06 PM, Gap 1905.03-1909.38)
i am 'helping' two of my friends day trading TZA/TNA, all skirmish trades; sometimes feel very loaded on their phone calls. They use trade station, a platform suppose much advanced than mine, but they want my 'Yes/NO service' too .... life is full of fun. ...
01/15/15 Gold
Gold is testing the resistance 1258
Upon the testing result, the bullish target is 1289
Real-time CFD Data. http://www.investing.com/commodities/gold-historical-data
chart date 01/07/15
01/14/15 At critical juncture
intraday low 2001.38, in progress.
holding by
- minor supportive trend line
- 2K mark
- 1998.45, 0.786 (important)
attempts on resistance 2008.25-2011 (approx)
Tuesday, 01/13/15 04:00:32 PM
short term supports
2018.78 (Edit: support is becoming resistance)
2008.01
2001.11
1998.45 (important)
short term
short term supports
2018.78
2008.01
2001.11
1998.45 (important)
short term resistance
2043.00
2054.93
2063.92
2069.69
2071.91 (important)
Short term lower target
200 SMA (as of 01/13 1964 approx)
1963.32-1900.82
major support 1904.78 (day low on 08/07/14)
- day traders' market
- Anthony Caldaro 01/13
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend now under pressure
https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2015/01/13/tuesday-update-472/
- Avi Gilburt Jan 12, 2015 3:18 p.m. ET
Is the S&P 500 ready to break out to 2200?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-the-sp-500-ready-to-break-out-to-2200-2015-01-12?link=MW_TD
01/13/15 SPX
closing 2023.03
No action
2018.78 (2019)
2008.01
Friday, 01/09/15 12:12:26 PM
plan: i am waiting for a 'Lower-high' (Edit: 2064.42) (see illustration chart) and close below 2019 for the confirmation of that Lower high, to buy inverse ETF for a large swing trade. Do your own DD.
illustration chart link: http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Reports/b05b53dc-f954-444d-a666-6c2d322d5bab/stocks2_20110913112718.jpg
01/10/15 Gold
Trader Dan's Market Views
Large Speculators returning to Gold - but with this Caveat
Saturday, January 10, 2015
http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.ca/2015/01/large-speculators-returning-to-gold-but.html