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ALTI........................................................
Posted about ALTI last week. Still holding full position from $1.30.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=1428263
Volume is currently running almost 3 times the norm on news this morning that the company has paid off all its convertible debt.
http://biz.yahoo.com/pz/030915/45043.html
Good luck.
Regards,
Naz
Husky - ADL
There appears to be a moderate amount of selling in ADL today. We'll probably continue to see some weakness if the FDA submission process lingers.
While I have no information on exactly when the company would submit to the FDA, from talking with commercial trading monkeys and hearing a rumor here or there, it was generally expected that the company would submit to the FDA some time in August or September. With only two weeks left in September, I'm hopeful the company will submit to the FDA for approval of its cancer test kit prior to the beginning of October. Whenever the company submits, no fundamentals have changed and still like the stock both short and long term.
Good luck.
Regards,
Naz
LS - NKTR
The Amazing Monkey would like to see more of you than just your old boot. He's getting a little stiffy just thinking about it.
As for NKTR, nothing much happening today from a technical perspective. Perhaps you'd care to shed some additional light on the stock.
TECHNICAL OPINION - NEKTAR THERAPEUTICS (NKTR) - 09/15/2003
Daily Opinion: HOLD
Monday's low volume (52% of average), with little or no movement relative to the open, has no significant technical importance.
Short-Term Opinion: HOLD
On a short-term technical basis, the trend is Bullish (up) and the stock is above its 50-day moving average at 9.83 which also confirms its Bullish (up) trend. The stock is extremely overbought according to the Stochastic indicator (79.31), so look for a possible pullback.
Long Term Opinion: OUTPERFORM
On a long-term technical basis, the stock (NKTR) is trading above its 200-day moving average which implies it is in a positive trend.
The stock has support at 10.76 and 10.00. If the stock breaks down through support at 10.76 then it will probably continue lower to 10.00. The stock will meet resistance at 14.30 and 16.09. If the stock breaks up through resistance at 14.30 then it will probably continue higher to 16.09. The 200-day moving average is at 8.26. This will also act as support. The stock is extremely overbought according to the Stochastic Indicator (85.97), so look for a possible pullback soon.
Regards,
Naz
LS...........................................................
Yes, you've been very busy seeking trading opportunities for the thread. Its much appreciated.
However, why would I be glad you cut back on your posts? I want to hear more from you. I want you to utilize every single one of your daily allotment of 18 posts per day. I want to see more passion on this thread like yours.
As I said before, you are on fire! Keep shootin' Lonestar.
Regards,
Naz
Good morning MW (still a.m. in the midwest) - Merlin
While I await any new info from my Amazing Stock Picking monkeys, your game plan looks like its in sync with what Merlin is looking for this week. Merlin's been tracking well recently:
http://www.crystalball-forum.com/merlin/
Good luck and happy you got your nap in. BTW, thats one serious eye.
Regards,
Naz
TRPH...........................................................
Tripath Tech - TRPH. No. 3 percentage gainer on the casino today, setting a new 52 week high, currently @4.03 (No.'s 1 & 2 have less than 275K volume, so I'm discounting their moves at this point).
Tripath to Present at the Wall Street Analyst Forum Conference on September 17, 2003
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/030902/25788_1.html
TECHNICAL OPINION - TRIPATH TECHNOLOGY (TRPH) - 09/15/2003
Daily Opinion: BUY
Monday's very Bullish (up) move, forming a yearly high, is accompanied by huge volume (340% of average), suggesting a continuation to further new highs. This is generally a very bullish sign. Monday's gap up in price suggests further new highs are ahead. This is an extremely bullish sign. Sometimes a stock will pause, or retrace for a few days to fill the gap, before continuing higher.
Short-Term Opinion: HOLD
On a short-term technical basis, the trend is Bullish (up) and the stock is above its 50-day moving average at 1.61 which also confirms its Bullish (up) trend. The stock is extremely overbought according to the Stochastic indicator (79.11).
Long Term Opinion: OUTPERFORM
On a long-term technical basis, the stock (TRPH) is trading above its 200-day moving average which implies it is in a positive trend.
The stock has support at 2.75 and 2.25. If the stock breaks down through support at 2.75 then it will probably continue lower to 2.25. The stock will meet resistance at 4.44 and 5.14. If the stock breaks up through resistance at 4.44 then it will probably continue higher to 5.14. The 200-day moving average is at 0.69. This will also act as support. The stock is extremely overbought according to the Stochastic Indicator (85.19).
Regards,
Naz
Fed OMO, Market - Where is everyone this morning?
Board awful quiet so far today. Very unusual, especially with all the women that participate on this thread.
The Fed issued a $5 billion overnight repo against no expiries, for a net addition to liquidity on the session.
Friday is opex, so I expect to stay in a trading range on the QQQ's between 33 and 34, all things being equal and MP not moving up or down during the week.
Homebuilders Higher - The DJUSHB index is higher today, led by Toll Brothers TOL after J.P. Morgan upgraded the stock from "neutral" to "over weight". TOL is up nearly 5%.
A few of the homebuilders do look like tempting bullish candidates. Shares of Centex (CTX) are bouncing up from support near $71, but remain under its 50-dma. Shares of Pulte Homes (PHM) is bouncing from its 50-dma and lows near $64. Shares of Lennar Corp (LEN) probably look the most appealing, up +1.89% above short-term resistance at $72.
Bank of Japan governor Toshiko Fukui has set a news conference for this Wednesday, with that conference potentially market moving. The Nikkei was closed Monday for a holiday, but other Asian bourses were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted closed down 0.39%, and Singapore's Straits Times closed down 0.28%. China's Shanghai Composite also closed down, by 0.82%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed up 1.00%.
In Sweden, voters rejected the adoption of the euro as their currency, but Estonions voted to join the EU. This morning, an economist on CNBC Europe commented that Sweden's rejection of the euro would give U.K. opponents to its adoption more confidence and might influence the U.K. against such a referendum.
Good luck.
Regards,
Naz
Star - VXGN, ADL & ILA
The story of the morning is VXGN. As I indicated on Friday, the stock made a technical breakout by closing above the $6.50 level. Chart says VXGN is headed to double digits. Certainly the news out late Friday has been a catalyst.
TECHNICAL OPINION - VAXGEN INC (VXGN) - 09/15/2003
Daily Opinion: BUY
Monday's very Bullish (up) move, forming a recent high, is accompanied by huge volume (363% of average), suggesting a continuation to further new highs. This is generally a very bullish sign.
Short-Term Opinion: OUTPERFORM
On a short-term technical basis, the trend is Bullish (up) and the stock is above its 50-day moving average at 4.60 which also confirms its Bullish (up) trend. The stock is slightly overbought according to the Stochastic indicator (72.88).
Long Term Opinion: HOLD
On a long-term technical basis, the stock (VXGN) is trading below its 200-day moving average which implies it is in a negative trend.
The stock has support at 6.25 and 5.85. If the stock breaks down through support at 6.25 then it will probably continue lower to 5.85. The stock has resistance at 7.74 and at 12.80. If the stock breaks up through resistance at 7.74 then it will probably continue higher to 12.80. The 200-day moving average is at 7.74. This will also act as resistance. The stock has broken out of its long-term downtrend and is looking more positive recently. If the stock can form new support above 6.25 look for a rally to previous highs. The stock is extremely overbought according to the Stochastic Indicator (77.46).
*************************************************************
ADL news this morning has caused a pullback. Still like its long term prospects.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/030915/lam068_1.html
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ILA trading well, but getting pretty stretched on the s.t. and l.t. stochs. Will look for a pullback near term to add the other 1/2 of my position:
TECHNICAL OPINION - Aquila Inc. (ILA) - 09/15/2003
Daily Opinion: HOLD
Monday's Bullish (up) move, forming a recent high, is accompanied by above average (120% of average) volume.
Short-Term Opinion: HOLD
On a short-term technical basis, the trend is Bullish (up) and the stock is above its 50-day moving average at 2.50 which also confirms its Bullish (up) trend. The stock is extremely overbought according to the Stochastic indicator (92.98).
Long Term Opinion: OUTPERFORM
On a long-term technical basis, the stock (ILA) is trading above its 200-day moving average which implies it is in a positive trend.
The stock has support at 3.22 and 2.95. If the stock breaks down through support at 3.22 then it will probably continue lower to 2.95. The stock has resistance at 5.25. The 200-day moving average is at 2.21. This will also act as support. The stock has broken out of its long-term downtrend and is looking more positive recently. If the stock can form new support above 3.22 look for a rally to previous highs. The stock is extremely overbought according to the Stochastic Indicator (93.44).
Good luck.
Regards,
Naz
Barron's - Risky Business
From airline to biotech stocks, speculation is back with a vengeance. Where the hot money's going. Why a "junior crash" could follow.
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 15, 2003
Russian Roulette?
Scorning history's lessons, investors again are betting heavily on tech and biotech
By ANDREW BARY
JUST SIX MONTHS AFTER a bear market left many technology stocks trading for little more than the value of the cash on their balance sheets and a bevy of well-known companies languishing for less than 10 times earnings, speculation is alive again on Wall Street.
The technology sector has been the most obvious beneficiary of investors renewed willingness to embrace risk. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index is up 38% this year, and that understates the gains in some of technology's most volatile sectors. The 18-member semiconductor index has risen 56% and the Street.com's Internet index is up 57%, paced by the likes of Amazon.com and Yahoo!, which both have more than doubled.
The speculative ardor has reached biotech stocks, which are having a great run after a rough 2002. The Amex biotechnology index is up 42% year-to-date, paced by industry leader Genentech, which has soared 150%. Industrial and other economically sensitive stocks have been on a roll lately, fueled by hopes that the U.S. economy is poised for a powerful and sustained upturn.
Airline stocks, left for dead in the winter, have come roaring back despite a still hazy profit outlook. AMR, the parent of American Airlines, has risen tenfold, to 12.73, following a brush with bankruptcy in March. Other travel stocks have surged, including debt-heavy Royal Caribbean Cruises, which has risen to 29 from 12 in March. Hilton Hotels, Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide and other lodging stocks have advanced sharply despite lackluster revenue and occupancy trends in the first half. Investors are betting on a recovery in 2004 and 2005.
Indeed, much of the enthusiasm for certain sectors hinges on hopes for 2004, and even 2005. Semiconductor capital-equipment stocks like Applied Materials and KLA-Tencor, for instance, are being touted by numerous Street analysts, based on 2005 price/earnings ratios, partly because it's nearly impossible to justify buying them based on multiples of more proximate earnings.
Thanks to high valuations and the hot money residing in the most speculative swaths of the stock market, there isn't much room for disappointment. The perils of chasing highflying stocks were illustrated last week by Texas Instruments and Xilinx, which fell more than 5% Wednesday after both disappointed Wall Street by failing to raise their financial guidance for the current quarter. Without continued good news, high-P/E stocks can fall.
"We could have a junior crash, a stock-market version of what happened in the Treasury bond market earlier in the summer," says Bob Marcin, head of Marcin Asset Management in Conshohocken, Pa. Marcin, the subject of a recent Barron's article ("Bob's Back," July 28), says the major market indexes could fall 10%-15% in the next six weeks, a seasonally weak period, and that speculative stocks could slip by double that amount.
Tech stocks have gotten a boost lately from buying by hedge funds and growth-oriented mutual funds that trailed their benchmarks this year, plus upgrades from seemingly reluctant Street analysts. One notable mutual fund that's lagged behind the S&P 500 owing to an undersized tech stake is $62 billion Fidelity Magellan, which is up 15% this year, almost two percentage points below the S&P. Magellan skipper Bob Stansky may feel pressure to raise his tech weighting.
There appears to be a greater-fool element to the tech buying as some investors figure there will be enough good news over the next 12 months to let them make money and get out before the markets start discounting the next downturn. The semiconductor and semiconductor-equipment stocks are classic trading vehicles. Analysts and investors regularly value them against one another, not against the entire market, in which price/earnings ratios generally are much lower. Tech investors also tend to ignore inconvenient items, such as options expense, which can markedly depress reported profits.
Tech strategist Steven Milunovich of Merrill Lynch observed recently that the group commands double the rest of the market's price/earnings and price/sales ratios. The last time that happened, November 2002, was followed by six months of lagging tech performance.
"Sell-side action tends to be a contrary indicator," Milunovich wrote in a client note. "Earlier in the rally, analysts were downgrading on valuation. Now, they're upgrading to reflect improving business and the pain of watching the stocks take off."
Capturing the current mood in the tech sector, J.P. Morgan analyst Christopher Danely headlined his upgrade last week of semiconductor maker Xilinx: "Taking a Sip of the Kool Aid."
Xilinx is a well-regarded semiconductor producer, but its valuation is hard to justify. At 30, it's up about 50% this year and trades for 47 times projected profits of 65 cents in its fiscal year ending in March 2004. Why should Xilinx go higher? Danely argued that it could trade at 10 times sales and 40 times the peak profits projected for 2005. Put a P/E of 40 on $1 in 2005 profits and Xilinx hits 40. Danely also said that it was inexpensive relative to another semi stock, Altera, which trades at 50 times 2004 profits. This logic is hardly compelling.
In other cyclical sectors, such as forest products, energy exploration and autos, stocks rarely trade for much more than 10 times peak profits, but tech fans say the group is an exception to that rule.
Goldman Sachs' top-rated software analyst, Rick Sherlund, last week boosted his rating on the group to Attractive from Neutral even though it is up 42% year-to-date and trades for 33 times projected 2004 profits. Sherlund noted that the forward P/E for the software sector has averaged 8 to 34 in the past 10 years, excluding 1999-2000. This doesn't suggest a lot of appreciation potential for software stocks, barring a return to bubble-era nuttiness.
Analysts are stretching to justify the prices in the semiconductor capital-equipment sector. Industry leader Applied Materials may earn $1 a share in its October 2005 fiscal year, up from just 13 cents to 15 cents this year. Does that justify a $21 stock? KLA-Tencor, meanwhile, trades at 56, about 28 times projected peak profits of $2 a share in 2005. KLA made just 70 cents in its latest fiscal year, ended in June, and its year-over-year comparisons remain negative.
Another tech darling, Juniper Networks, has jumped to 17, about 100 times estimated 2004 earnings. Juniper's much larger rival, Cisco Systems, trades around 20, but it's expected to earn 65 cents a share in its fiscal 2004. Cisco quietly made its fiscal 2004 stock-option grant recently. Setting the strike price at 19.59, it issued options on 141 million shares -- equal to about 2% of all its shares outstanding.
The new Cisco grant is worth around $1 billion ($7 per option), or nearly 10 cents a share after taxes for Cisco. This suggests that Cisco's economic profits in its current year are apt to be closer to 55 cents than to the Street consensus of 65 cents and that its true P/E is about 35, rather than the widely reported 30. Cisco and other major tech companies urge investors to ignore option costs.
It's also hard to take Broadcom, the semiconductor maker, seriously after it issued 8.6 million shares of stock worth $162 million to employees in the second quarter in return for cancelled, out-of-the-money options and then said the grant shouldn't be treated as an expense because it didn't involve cash. It was excluded from Broadcom's "pro forma" profit calculation for the period -- a calculation preferred by many tech companies but one that is at variance from generally accepted accounting principles.
The Broadcom grant, plus the acceleration of other stock-based compensation, totaled $220 million in the second quarter. Adjusted for taxes, that wealth transfer to Broadcom employees was more than the company's projected pro forma net income this year. Only in the tech sector do investors embrace companies that liberally reward employees at the expense of shareholders. Broadcom stock, at 26, is up 76% this year to 26 and trades for 60 times projected pro forma earnings of 43 cents in 2003 and 40 times estimated 2004 earnings of 65 cents a share.
Give Amazon.com and its management credit for surprisingly strong operating results this year. But Amazon, at 45, now trades for 53 times projected 2004 pro-forma profits of 85 cents a share. Many investors don't realize that those earnings exclude a tax provision and the cost of Amazon's restricted-stock grants to employees.
One benefit to Amazon of its enormous losses since its 1997 initial public offering is a gigantic crutch; $2.7 billion in tax-loss carryforwards. Adjust Amazon's estimated 2004 net for taxes and restricted stock, and its P/E jumps toward 100.
Like many tech issues, airline stocks are trading on 2005 hopes. While some carriers were profitable in the seasonally strong summer quarter, the majors -- AMR, Continental Airlines and Delta Airlines -- are all likely to post sizable losses this year and may still operate in the red in 2004. In recommending AMR as a "Focus 1" stock recently, Merrill Lynch analyst Michael Linenberg said it might earn $1.50 a share in 2005 and $2.50 in 2006, owing in part to big cost savings.
What AMR or any major airline earns in 2005 amounts to guesswork. The group could do well if business customers return in force. But over time, the industry has been a disaster for most investors and much of the growth is occurring at profitable, low-fare carriers such as Southwest Airlines and JetBlue Airways.
Neither Southwest nor JetBlue is cheap. Southwest, at 18, trades for 30 times projected 2004 profits of 60 cents a share. JetBlue, at 57, commands 33 times estimated 2004 profits of $1.73 a share. JetBlue has been a big success on an admittedly small scale, and has developed a loyal group of customers. But at its current price, the stock is anticipating $4 a share in profits by 2007 or 2008, a very tall order in the competitive airline industry.
While major drug stocks have been tepid performers this year, biotechs have starred, helped by favorable news from such notables as Genentech, whose cancer drug Avastin looks like a big winner. But biotech valuations don't leave much room for disappointment. Genentech, at 84, trades at more than 40 times estimated 2005 profits, and Genzyme, at 49, fetches almost 30 times expected '04 net, about double the P/E of the major drug stocks.
The hotel industry finally is getting a lift from increased travel, but its stocks anticipate bigger gains. Hilton trades around 15, over 30 times projected 2004 profits of 46 cents a share, while Starwood Hotels, at 34, fetches 38 times estimated '04 net of 91 cents a share. Further gains in the group could be limited because the stocks already command double the market multiple.
Bottom line: Despite the lessons of the tech and telecom bubbles, speculation is very much alive again on Wall Street.
http://online.wsj.com/barrons/article/0,,SB10634126185511000,00.html?mod=b_this_weeks_magazine_main
Weekly Momentum, Sentiment & Strength Indexes............
A slew of negative events including disclosure of the NYSE chairman's outrageous compensation package, memories of 9/11, favorable treatment for mutual fund "timers", and a less than stellar August retail sales report sent stocks lower last week. The DJIA snapped its five week win streak as it lost 32 points (-0.34%) and closed at 9471. The NASDAQ, which scored an 18-month high on Monday (1888.62), dropped 3 points (-0.16%) and closed the week at 1855. For the year the DJIA is up 13.7% while the NASDAQ has gained 38.9%.
Momentum Index: The Momentum Index is positive at +3. Breadth was positive as the NYSE Advance/Decline line, which recorded a new recovery high on Monday (-12916), gained 1231 units for the week. The number of NYSE stocks making new 52-week highs outpaced the new lows on all five trading days. The percentage of NYSE stocks above their 200-day moving average was steady at 89.0 down a touch from last week (89.9%) while those above their 50-day slid to 76.4% from 81.5%.
Sentiment Index: The Sentiment Index is neutral at +1, down a notch from last week. The VIX returned to neutral ground at 20.50, up slightly from 19.89. Readings under 20 are regarded as bearish. The percentage of bullish investment advisors also returned to a neutral 54.1%, down a touch from last week's bearish 55.5% reading. The put/call ratio remained a neutral 1.63, up from last week's neutral 1.50 reading. For the week ending 09/10/03, U.S. equity mutual funds had inflows of $94 million compared to inflows of $4.2 billion the previous week.
Strength Indexes: As anticipated, all of the Strength Indexes pushed into positive ground. The percentage of Dow (DIA) stocks under accumulation jumped to 53.3 from last week's 33.3. The percentage of NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) stocks considered to be under accumulation soared to 77.1 from 46.9 while those in the S&P-100 (OEX) jumped to 60.2 vs 38.8. Readings above 50.0 indicate that the majority of the stocks in the index are under accumulation, a bullish condition.
Support for the DJIA is in the 9030 area while resistance is at 9750 followed by 10200. Support for the NASDAQ is 1640 with resistance now at 1900 followed by 2100.
Regards,
Naz
SGMS - One I missed posting on last Friday.
Scientific Games Corp. - SGMS: Disclosure: No position yet. I got the lead on SGMS on Friday morning from another one of my Amazing Commercial Trading monkeys when it was trading @$10.65. Unfortunately, I was in my CORV rage at the time and didn't do anything. SGMS went on to have a very nice session on Friday, closing @11.87, +20%.
SGMS announced Friday morning that it will be buying IGT OnLine Entertainment Systems from Intl Game Technology (IGT) for $143 million in cash. IGT OnLine operates on-line lottery systems in seven states and the Caribbean. SGMS is now trading at another new 52-week high and should move to the $13 level in the near-term.
Regards,
Naz
designer.................................................
Suffice it to say, I wasn't my usual self on Friday. I make a concerted effort to make certain the information I post is as accurate as possible. This is why bad trades are generally few and far between. Still, when a debacle like CORV happens, I don't take it lightly. When a stock gaps down that much, that fast, you have no way to trade yourself out of it. Fortunately, I had made a little over 12K on my QQQ trades and my CORV short earlier in the week. So, I realized a net +7K on the week.
But Friday was just a disaster all around. I also got into an intense shouting match with one of my co-funding partners. I wanted to tell him to go shove it up his a-s-s in the worst way, but..........he's having marital issues, his wife is spending them into the poor house and he's constantly under the gun with his finances......so I bit my tongue so hard it was bleeding before it was over. It still doesn't excuse his behavior. However, on Saturday, he called and apologized and my other partner also called me as well to make sure I was O.K. and to apologize on his behalf as well. The problem is, it was just the wrong day for it after the morning I'd had with CORV.
Anyway, a couple of days off and my going out to Hooters with my FFL buddies last night has made the experience a complete blur at this point.
Thank you as well for the encouragement and the kind words. It certainly helps keep me motivated to continue contributing to this thread and making it better in the future. "Please continue and lets rock and roll." You're 100% correct designer. And that is what I intend to do.
Good luck.
Regards,
Naz
flimflammy7, thanks, appreciate the kind words. eom
VXGN & ILA...................................................
Took the balance of my CORVie money, added some cash and bought positions in VXGN & ILA.
VXGN - In @6.50. VXGN is setting itself up for a triple top technical breakout. Vaxgen is developing an HIV Vaccine and last April, after a hammer job when negative test results were announced, the stock fell to $2.42 per share. The stock is acting well on positive news that Vaxgen and Britain's Health Protection Agency have signed a pact to deploy Vaxgen's Anthrax vaccine. A close of $6.50 or above has the potential to double the stock quickly.
Aquila Inc. - ILA: In @$3.13. The same Amazing Commercial Trading Monkey who gave me WMB last fall, is now saying to buy ILA. Williams Companies (WMB) traded in the $2.00 range last November and is trading today at $8.62. Aquila is suppose to be in a similar situation and I'm told several positives will soon be announced, including debt resolution and asset sales. Look for a double before the end of the year.
However, ALWAYS, ALWAYS do your own due diligence before entering a trading position. No one is responsible for your trading choices except yourself. Take what you want and leave the rest.
Good luck.
Regards,
Naz
LS, re: CORV news
Unfortunately, its a fact of life that not all trades work out as originally intended. I took an approximately $5K hit today in CORV and moved on for the time being.
It fully anticipated they would be awarded a portion of the Global Information Grid Bandwidth Expansion (GIG-BE). Hasn't happen thus far, so I'm not going to allow funds to wallow in potentially dead money.
As in baseball, there's no crying in trading.
Regards,
Naz
Market Replay
Relief Bounce?
By Jim Brown
After two days of declines the markets rallied after each memorial service and as the clock ticked down on the possibility of another terrorist attack. As it became apparent there had been no terrorist event the markets began to creep upward from the morning dip. They ignored negative economic news and low volume to retest 9500 and 1850 once again. Fear of darkness took hold at 3:PM and the indexes began giving up their gains.
Dow: The Dow rebound stopped exactly at the 50% retracement level at 9500. The 200 point drop from the prior two days ended with a 57 point rebound. This is far from conclusive evidence that the selling is over.
Nasdaq: The COMP closed under the previous 1850 support level for the second consecutive day. The retracement of yesterday's drop was turned back at exactly 50%.
The morning started out badly with the Jobless Claims coming in well over 400,000 as we expected. The official consensus estimate was for a drop to 395,000 but the headline number rose to 422,000 instead. Last weeks number was revised up to 419,000. If you have been reading my articles you know I was expecting something in the 425K range for this week and I was not far off. Not only are more workers being laid off but the number of continuing claims rose +61,000 to 3.67 million. This was the largest number since July 12th. The four-week moving average rose to 407,250 and the highest level since July-26th. 29 states reported rising claims. The Jobless Claims were very negative to the bullish case but after the initial drop in the S&P futures to 1009 on the news at 8:30 they rebounded to almost 1016 before the open.
Helping confuse the issue was a +0.2% rise in Import Prices. This was less than expected at +0.3% but when taken in context of a +3.9% increase in energy prices it left most investors scratching their heads. The lack of a major change in the headline number would indicate the trend to lack of inflation is still intact despite the higher energy prices. Should the energy prices suddenly drop the number could quickly go negative.
The Trade Deficit increased once again to $40.3 billion in July, with $11.3 billion applicable to China. This ever increasing black hole is about to find a bottom if the current China legislation passes. The war over the devaluation of their currency will have some serious fallout. Companies that design products in the U.S. and then manufacture them in China could see a huge jump in their import tariffs. One version has a +27.5% tax on all imports from China in order to level the playing field. Currently China's currency is kept at artificial levels to give it a competitive advantage in the marketplace. They have refused to let it float and one U.S. threat is to remove their favored nation trade status and associated benefits. Tom Clancy, the author of many fiction novels about China and its economic attacks on the U.S. has got to be jumping up and down saying I told you so. Of course most of his books end up with a shooting conflict where the U.S. wins and I do not see that in the immediate future.
Traders also shook off a downgrade on IBM by Salomon Smith Barney at the open. SSB said the stock price had gotten ahead of fundamentals and that the CSFB assessment was wrong. CSFB had upgraded IBM saying that it would benefit from a late year turnaround in IT spending. SSB said that investor sentiment had gotten ahead of revenue growth and lagging services bookings would hurt IBM. SSB said bookings might be strong in the 3Q but down for the entire year. They recommended clients take profits in IBM now. IBM shook off the opening drop to $86.40 and finished slightly positive at $87.90.
The banking index rebounded from yesterday's drop with a jump back to 870.51 intraday but dropped at the close to 864.69. It was still positive for the day but the oversold bounce was weak. The pressure from yesterday came from multiple warnings of falling loan demand from businesses as well as a sudden drop in mortgages due to the rise in rates. Key Bank, National City and Washington Mutual all warned that demand was slipping and conditions were worsening. The rebound was likely bargain hunting but the volume was weak.
Thursday was a throw away day in my opinion. The drops for the last two days were due as much to worries about a potential terrorist event as much as profit taking from the big gains. The constant break away to memorial events and the numerous sound bites for politicians and reporters kept the volume on the exchanges to a minimum. The price action was based on small buy/sell programs pushing the indexes from one range to the next with no defining trend. The volume ended with the lowest full day of trading since Aug 28th and about 16% below Wednesday.
This light volume relief bounce of +22 points on the Nasdaq after a drop of 50 points (2.6%) on heavy volume from Wednesday was far from conclusive. If anything it was an oversold bounce and brought us back to neutral for Friday. We are approaching the middle of September, the most volatile month of the year for the markets and we are moving into the most active weeks of this warning cycle.
The valuation dogs are loose and the IBM downgrade this morning should be followed by other analysts wanting to get their 15 minutes of fame. We get earnings from Oracle at the open on Friday and while nobody expects them to miss estimates it will be interesting to see how they spin their guidance. Larry Ellison is tied with John Chambers for his ability to spin the news to Oracles benefit. The majority of analysts expect ORCL to announce inline at 8 cents on revenue of $2.14 billion. The dissenters think ORCL will make their earnings on cost cutting instead of revenue increases above the expectations. The real answer is sure to impact tech stocks tomorrow. Announcing inline has not been a winning strategy lately.
The bond market absorbed another huge inflow of government paper this week with bid-to-cover ratios still high despite the continuing uncertainty. With a few earnings warnings beginning to appear on the fringes and the continuing drop in employment the bond junkies are feeling better about holding inventory.
The Dow rebounded from yesterday's test of 9400 to test the high from yesterday at 9500. That test failed with a drop that split the difference with a 9457 close. One trader said it was a patriotic bid under the market more than anything else. I believe it was traders coming back into the market after taking profits on Wednesday to avoid any attack risk. Much of the volume for the day came in the last 30 minutes of trading.
Futures volume rose significantly on both sides of the market. I have received numerous emails from readers who feel serious distribution is in progress and the chance for a major up move from here are becoming weaker every day. I received numerous other emails pointing out the bullishness of the limited drop and instant reversal when considering the distance we have come and the calendar. Unfortunately I agree with both. It is bullish that the markets are holding up as well as they are at these levels. I watch the volume flow through the Eminis on Wed and at the close today and I was impressed at the number of buyers. This is definitely not a normal rally or a normal September market.
Friday may not give us a real clue to direction either. We have several economic reports at the open in addition to the ORCL earnings. We have the PPI and Retail Sales at 8:30 and Michigan Sentiment at 9:45. I do not expect a big move from these events. I would think traders would watch them from the corner of their eye but they are focusing on the Fed meeting next Tuesday. With Bernanke and Ferguson being renominated to the board they are probably hoping Ben will be carrying a bigger stick into the meeting in an effort to fight that deflation monster with another rate cut. Do not hold your breath. There is a possibility with the nonfarm payrolls down 93,000 and Jobless claims well over 400K for the last two weeks but that chance is still very slim. According to the Fed funds futures the next change is expected to be a 25 point hike in April 2004.
While the Fed may want to head off the deflation monster, they have clearly shown they do not want to move until they have to. Cutting another 25 points now would endanger billions of dollars currently held in money markets. With MM yields already only pennies above zero any further cuts could make it unprofitable for funds to continue to offer any return to holders. We could see a massive shutdown of money market funds and that cash withdrawn for other purposes. Shucks, some of it might even find its way into the stock market. (Are you listening Ben?) Maybe the Fed still has one more ace up their sleeve that nobody is counting on but that ace cannot be played without exacting a terrible price on the investment community. I doubt Greenspan will allow it without a strong reason. Either way traders will be either holding their breath until Tuesday afternoon or buying the hope for that surprise cut.
The anniversary is over and the terror alert was never raised. The fear of another event is slowly dwindling but somewhere in the U.S. there are people alive today that will eventually die in the next attack. Next week, next month or next year, eventually there will be another attack. It will probably come when we least expect it. We need to use every anniversary of the WTC attack to motivate us to go the extra mile to prevent them from being so massive. Just today there was an article about a canister of 15 pounds of highly radioactive depleted uranium being smuggled into Los Angeles by ABC reporters for the second straight year while doing an investigative piece on lax border security. Despite the obvious radioactivity and the ease at which it could have been detected it arrived at its destination right on schedule. The package was designed to emit radiation in a form and strength of a more dangerous device. It was shipped from Jakarta, a terrorist hotspot, in a shipping container all the way to the final destination in Los Angeles. If a radioactive device, active or otherwise, can be shipped without discovery then how simple would it be to ship C4 or some germ warfare component right through the security screen. There are an estimated 10,000 containers offloaded in the U.S. each day and only a very small fraction are searched. Our borders are porous and cannot be fixed. 65,000 people gather together at more than a dozen locations each weekend for football games and offer prime targets. 25% of the weight on scheduled passenger planes is unscreened commercial shipments. If an idiot can ship himself home for the holiday in a shipping crate without being found then what else is shipped each day that could be dangerous. We may be a harder target than we were two years ago but for anybody with a death wish the security will never be enough. Our best defense is a strong offense and the refusal to let these people impact our daily lives. I leave you with the battle cry from the passengers on the fourth plane who refused to see their plane used as a weapon. Let's roll.
Designer, thank you for the kind words.....................
However, I will pass on your sentiment to whom the credit is due. My amazing team of stock picking monkeys have been on a roll recently and are deserving of the accolades.
Yes, a hot comb would have been an appropriate gift for the Amazing Bad Hair Monkey today.
Although, I wish I woke up looking this good.
As for the monkeys' specific home address, I am not at liberty to disclose such highly sensitive information for security purposes. They are under intense pressure dealing with a highly competitive market as well as constant demands for information from yours truly. They guard and cherish their privacy in order to be prepared to do financial battle each and every day.
However, I can offer you a glimpse into their highly private lives. The area they reside in are the palatial grounds of, what else, Monkey Island.
Let me know when this story is getting too deep for you, because I'm about to drown in all this B.S.
Regards,
Naz
Welcome Cardio.............................................
Nice to see another old RB MMClub person here.
Congrats on getting in on CYPB. My ACT monkey thanks you.
Feel free to email me regarding any personal financial issues you wish to discuss @naz_trader@hotmail.com.
Talk to you soon and hope you continue to post here in the future.
Good luck.
Regards,
Naz
lonestar49, you are quite welcome eom.
BRIG........................................................
Saw your post on the MoMoClub today:
"OT: Star...you know my opinion on this issue...CRAP! Remember the fallen G.I.'s in Iraq Afganistan...and every war we ever fought...they went in with their eyes wide open...the people in those bulidings...while horrible that they died were just in the wrong place at the wrong time....so remember the War Dead......JMO....BRIG".
Thanks for the heads up. I went ahead and bought a boatload of CRAP.
In all candor, I share the same sentiment with you. I have a friend who's son is on the front lines in Iraq. We're constantly sending him letters of encouragement as well as paperback books, etc. to help maintain their moral. Unfortunately, its likely not going to end any time soon.
Good luck.
Regards,
Naz
Buzz - QQQ's................................................
Notice what level the Q's ultimately bounced off of today? LOD was 33.01, just a shiny penny above MP. Option writers didn't want to see that boatload of puts suddenly go ITM I guess.
I noticed that MP dropped today for the first time in quite awhile. Bears finally able to take some profits on their poots which they wisely did. The QQQ's now have a call bias @34 and above, bringing MP back to 33+. I'll likely short a gap up open tomorrow for a trade. My QQQ long position last night and in premarket worked out very well, merely by following the options.
I don't need no stinkin' charts!
Good luck to you and your fellow swingers!
Regards,
Naz
ALTI & WGA..................................................
Sorry for the delayed posts on trades, been a busy afternoon.
Altair Nanotechnologies - ALTI: In @$1.30. Until recently, the stock has been a total nonperformer. After trading up to 1.40 on 5/14, it retraced back below $1.00 while spending the last several weeks treading water just above or just below the buck level. Recently, volume has kicked in leading me to believe positive developments may be on the horizon. Technically speaking, a close of $1.50 will be a double top breakout, likely taking the stock another point higher in the near-term.
Today, the stock is trading twice its average daily volume.
Wells-Gardner - WGA: In @3.95. From the Amazing Commercial Trading Monkey not having a bad hair day, they're hearing this stock will trade much higher. Chart looks good, closing only $.10 cents off its 52-week high @4.05.
Good luck and please do your due diligence before entering a trading position.
Regards,
Naz
Star - CYPB..................................................
Its possible. Not to be a killjoy, but bear in mind that several phara's have had some positive news this week. It may be giving a lift to the overall sector.
From Briefing.com today:
14:58 ET MOGN MGI Pharma tgt raised to $48 from $35 at JPM Sec (41.10 -0.10). The target increase to $48 is based on improved market sentiment and reduced product risk resulting from FDA approval and commercial launch of Aloxi, co's lead product for chemotherapy induced nausea and vomiting that was approved in July.
Also the $510 million Aventis & Regeneron experimental cancer drug deal earlier this week was huge for Regeneron. Regeneron's future was looking bleak several months ago. Back on 3/31/03, the stock plunged 56% after the company released news that the Phase 3 clinical trial data for its obesity drug candidate wasn't as positive as investors had hoped.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/030908/health_aventis_3.html
So things are looking up this week in pharmaland. Hopefully the deal will be announced soon.
Good luck.
Regards,
Naz
MG re: CHRD..................................................
Yes, I'm also loving the action in CYPB.
As for CHRD, I haven't had any updates recently from the Amazing Stock Picking Monkey. Unfortunately, the monkey has had an exceptionally bad hair today, so he's been virtually useless to me on the session.
I checked out the intraday chart on CHRD and overlayed it with the QQQ's. It looks to me like CHRD has merely traded in sync pricewise with the overall market. Volume wise, its currently trading a little above 1/2 of its daily average.
Here is today's layman's technical take on CHRD:
TECHNICAL OPINION - Chordiant Software (CHRD) - 09/11/2003
Daily Opinion: HOLD
Thursday's very Bullish (up) bar with low volume (55% of average) has no significant technical importance. This day's price action formed a Bullish Key Reversal which suggests the stock will go higher in the short term, but the decreasing volume suggests a lack of enthusiasm and the upmove may be short-lived.
Short-Term Opinion: HOLD
On a short-term technical basis, the trend is Neutral (sideways) and the stock is above its 50-day moving average at 2.77 which also confirms its Neutral (sideways) trend. The stock is neutral according to the Stochastic indicator (37.30).
Long Term Opinion: HOLD/BUY
On a long-term technical basis, the stock (CHRD) is trading above its 200-day moving average which implies it is in a positive trend.
The stock has support at 2.97 and 2.78. If the stock breaks down through support at 2.97 then it will probably continue lower to 2.78. The stock will meet resistance at 3.40 and 3.89. If the stock breaks up through resistance at 3.40 then it will probably continue higher to 3.89. The 200-day moving average is at 1.69. This will also act as support. The stock is neutral according to the Stochastic Indicator (41.59).
Good luck.
Regards,
Naz
O.T. flimflammy7 re: Is this what you were trying to say?
In a word, no. I wasn't referring to the wars in Iraq or Afghanistan. I know the government's offical position is that each of these conflicts arose as a result of the overall "War on Terror", but I was only referring to the events which led up to, occured on, and immediately subsequent to the 9-11 attacks.
Again, I don't want to engage in any ongoing political discussions on the thread, as politics is a subject of great passion for many people. Everyone has their own thoughts and opinions which they are entitled to and there are other forums on IHub where one can go and discuss them.
I prefer we remain true to the thread's mission statement.
Good luck.
Regards,
Naz
lonestar49 - AAC............................................
Its not a stock that I follow, however, I'll be happy to give you a layman's technical read on it from my TA software.
TECHNICAL OPINION - ABLEAUCTIONS.COM INC (AAC) - 09/11/2003
Daily Opinion: HOLD
Thursday's Bearish (down) move is not accompanied by high volume (66% of average) suggesting that the current move lacks broad participation. If the volume continues to be light the move will probably be short-lived. This day's price action formed a Bearish Key Reversal which suggests the stock will go lower in the short term, but the desreasing volume suggests that if there is a decline, it may be short-lived..
Short-Term Opinion: HOLD
On a short-term technical basis, the trend is Neutral (sideways) and the stock is below its 50-day moving average at 0.61 which also confirms its Neutral (sideways) trend. The stock is neutral according to the Stochastic indicator (41.23).
Long Term Opinion: HOLD/SELL
On a long-term technical basis, the stock (AAC) is trading above its 200-day moving average, but has broken through an important support level, which implies it is in a neutral trend.
The stock has support at 0.48 and 0.43. If the stock breaks down through support at 0.48 then it will probably continue lower to 0.43. The stock has resistance at 0.61 and 0.72. If the stock breaks up through resistance at 0.61 then it will probably continue higher to 0.72. The 200-day moving average is at 0.25. This will also act as support. The stock's long-term uptrend has changed into a sideways or downtrend. In this case, the stock will either go sideways for a while or sell-off back to where it started prior to the latest big upmove. This is a risky time for the stock, so be careful. Use caution during times like these, as the stock will be more volatile. The stock is slightly oversold according to the Stochastic Indicator (25.79).
Good luck.
Regards,
Naz
Star, SCLD - Old Lopy and Monkey pick running hard as well, up 22%+ today.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/030911/dcth005_1.html
Sold it a while back @5.13. It dropped all the way down to 4.30 this morning, then took off. Too bad I didn't recycle my long position since I've always kept it on my radar.
I know I'm going to get a nasty email from the Amazing Commercial Trading Monkey for not rebuying SCLD again this morning.
Good luck.
Regards,
Naz
Fed OMO & Intraday Market Overview.............................
Sold my QQQ's trading long position @33.41 from my average cost of 33.18909 (gotta love the very tight spreads on the Q's) It was a sizeable position, so its Happy Meals for everyone today!
The Fed has issued a $5 billion, 28-day repo and a $6 billion, 7-day repo. With a $7 billion, 28-day repo and a $2.5 billion O/N repo expiring today, this action represents a net addition to liquidity of $1.5 billion on the session.
Opening gap fading as I post, particularly on the COMP. SOX @436.72, -1.16%, is the leading tech sector loser after early bid has faded. Looks to be souring other tech sectors with the BTK @472.31 -0.52%, and others now turning fractional red.
Triple test of 1013 underway on the SPX, and it appears to be holding. Very strong buy orders at 1012.50. The put to call ratio is up to .77, equity pcr .59 and index pcr 1.48. Euro futures are hitting a session low, but gold is up fractionally, now -3.90 at 377.20.
Good luck.
Regards,
Naz
Good morning Starshine.......................................
I would also like to commend you for the heartfelt sentiment you expressed 'In Rememberance' post. Very well thought out. Thank you.
I'll never forget just watching in amazement and horror, the media coverage of the planes hitting the WTC, the damage they caused and the panic that ensued.
One day I hope the WHOLE truth comes out regarding ALL the events which occurred prior to, on, and subsequent to 9-11. I'll leave it at that, since I don't want to start a political debate here. However, those events don't change the fact that many VERY REAL lives were lost in the attacks. And for those individuals and their families, my heart and prayers go out to them today 'In Rememberance'.
Regards,
Naz
CYPB & CORV...................................................
CYPB continues to act well and intraday on the session it traded at a new 52-week high. Still looking for double digits in the near-term.
CORV - Added more @1.89.
Regards,
Naz
ADL - update
Still holding from my repurchase @1.53. Closed today @1.79. After attaining a new 52-week high of $2.40 on August 11, ADL has spent the last 4 weeks consolidating its gains originating from below the 1.00 level.
This stock was priced at $.50 cents a mere three months ago. On August 12, ADL traded at a low of $1.31 and since that time the stock has been setting a series of higher highs and higher lows, and it's pretty apparent that someone has been quietly accumulating the stock over the last few days.
TA wise, its shaping up with a similar chart pattern prior to the breakout above the $1.00 level when the stock doubled quickly. Because of the similar "cup-with-handle" chart formation, the Amazing Commercial Trading Monkey is raising his near-term price objective from $3.00 to $3.50 per share. We've probably got another week or two of consolidation after which time he fully anticipates a breakout to new 52-week highs.
The company's DR-70 Cancer Test Kit appears to be a very powerful clinical test. In an article published in "Immunoassay," it talks about "sensitivities" and "specificities" in detecting cancer. SENSITIVITY means the likelihood of a positive test result in a patient with a given disease, while SPECIFICITY means the likelihood of a negative test result in a patient without a given disease (it is the complement to the false-positive rate).
At a Specificity of 95% (meaning that there is a 95% chance that someone without cancer won't have a positive test), the Sensitivity for lung, stomach, breast and rectal cancers are a combined 83.8% (meaning that you will miss only about 16%). In other words, if the test is calibrated to eliminate the "noise" so that you are not over-diagnosing someone with cancer (with about a 5% over-diagnosis rate), you'll pick up the listed cancers in about 84% of the cases.
Make no mistake, this is not a perfect test, but neither is a mammogram, a PSA, a chest x-ray, a bodyscan or any other available clinical test for cancer. The beauty of the DR-70 is that it screens pretty well for the cancers already noted plus at least another 9 and it is significantly cheaper than anything currently available on the market.
If all this is as it appears to be, DR-70 could likely become part of the standard battery of tests ordered during yearly exams for those over age 40. Apparently, there is no other clinical test that screens as widely for cancer other than the bodyscan. With all this in mind, the ACT monkey feels this stock could be a huge winner! Hopefully, FDA submission should occur very soon. Stay tuned.
Good luck.
Regards,
Naz
LS, there is only one thing I can say to you................
You are on FIRE girlfriend!
Nice work locating trading ops for the thread.
Good luck.
Regards,
Naz
Good afternoon Buzz.......................................
Nice of the media to trot out a Bin Laden tape today ahead of the second anniversary of 9/11 to trigger a selloff. Honestly, people are so gullible. Does anyone honestly believe the Arab Mafia will try anything with the whole world watching? Not likely.
However, i'm not complaining. Covered my dung CSCO short @20.49 from a 20.81 average for Happy Meal money.
But made big, Buzz type cash on my sizeable QQQ short from a 34.40 average which I covered this afternoon @33.22. Took 1/2 of those proceeds and flipped long on the Q's @33.21 average for a trade.
Not likely you'll see a gap down if all is clear at the opening bell. I would expect an oversold bounce/rally initially which I plan to sell my Q's long position into. If it gaps down, I'll buy the other 1/2 position.
BTW, congrats on your options trade. Good luck.
Regards,
Naz
Buzz.....................................................
I've done my share of futile top calling early in the rally. Fortunately I got religion in late April and began trading primarily from the long side, often in the small crappers and options. As you stated, the beauty of swing trades, especially in story or prestory stocks, trade higher regardless of overall market direction.
Denmo has been consistently spot on since the March bottom. He certainly deserves all the success he has enjoyed, especially with the handicap he has to trade with in his 401K.
This close to opex, I rely more on MP than on charts. If a near term downturn gathers some momentum, I doubt the QQQ's fall below 33 on more than an intraday basis. The option writers have a vested interest in not letting the boatload of puts built up at 33 going ITM with a 1.7:1.1 ratio of puts to calls. Like I mentioned earlier, if the bears become any more lathered, they'll push MP up to 34 in September.
At some point a pull back is in the cards, especially with 14 unfilled gaps on the COMPX since last October. But I'm not going to attempt to be a top guesser at this point.
Unfortunately, I have not traded any Monk picks. I've got commercial trading monkeys that have consistently fed me profitable trades which I have posted. I believe its for all of our benefit to elicit and post leads from various sources.
Good luck and continued success with your trades as well.
Regards,
Naz
EYE re: Argentina Defaults on $3 Billion IMF Debt............
Argentina's default on a $2.9 billion payment shouldn't impact equities. The default itself isn't likely to put International Monetary Fund resources at risk. There is widespread market expectation that Argentina will get an accord in the next few weeks, avoiding an official 30-day notification of its default and sanctions from the IMF and other multilateral lenders, such as the World Bank.
And after Sunday's provincial and city elections in Buenos Aires, which are key to President Kirchner's establishing a power base, he is expected to gain more room for maneuver on politically unpopular IMF demands, such as a rise in utility rates.
This is more a geopolitical game of chicken between Argentina and the IMF after the two sides failed to agree on terms of a new three-year aid program.
Regards,
Naz
United States flow of funds...................................
Not only has the Federal government long since pissed away the budget surplus from the go-go 1990's, but they are borrowing at a record pace. Anyone surprised?
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/Current/z1r-3.pdf
Regards,
Naz
LS - XMSR.................................................
You are correct. Short interest has increased on XMSR for 5 consecutive months.
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/quotes_full.asp?mode=&kind=shortint&symbol=XMSR&symbol=&sy...
I would imagine with the breakout in XMSR the past couple of days, it has sent some of the shorts running for cover.
As for ALO, its not one I follow so let me run it on my TA software and see the result. It looks like you may be correct once again:
TECHNICAL OPINION - ALPHARMA INC CL A (ALO) - 09/09/2003
Daily Opinion: HOLD
Tuesday's very Bearish (down) move, forming a recent low, is accompanied by huge volume (951% of average), suggesting further new lows are ahead. Tuesday's gap down in price suggests further new lows are ahead. This is an extremely bearish sign. Sometimes a stock will pause, or rebound for a few days to fill the gap, before continuing lower.
Short-Term Opinion: UNDERPERFORM
On a short-term technical basis, the trend is Bearish (down) and the stock is below its 50-day moving average at 20.70 which also confirms its Bearish (down) trend. The stock is extremely overbought according to the Stochastic indicator (75.83), so look for a possible pullback.
Long Term Opinion: HOLD
On a long-term technical basis, the stock (ALO) is trading above its 200-day moving average which implies it is in a positive trend. However, the stock has broken through an important trendline at 18.69 suggesting the next level of support is 18.14. The long-term uptrend has now turned neutral.
The stock has support at 18.14 and 17.19. If the stock breaks down through support at 18.14 then it will probably continue lower to 17.19. The stock will meet resistance at 18.55 and 20.34. If the stock breaks up through resistance at 18.55 then it will probably continue higher to 20.34. The 200-day moving average is at 17.93. This will also act as support. If the stock closes below 15.81 a negative trend change is probable. Look for the stock to fall to the level where it started prior to the latest big upmove. The stock is extremely overbought according to the Stochastic Indicator (79.89), so look for a possible pullback soon.
Keep up the grear work LS!
Regards,
Naz
Buzz re: "Any thoughts on QQQ staying in a 32.50 to 34.50 trading range until earnings season?"
Its interesting that much of what I read on the threads by the bears is about the irrational exhuberance of the bulls based on the how far and fast the market has moved higher.
The problem with the bear case at this point is their insatiable appetite for put buying and continuous selling into strength. It is their irrational exhuberance which continues to underpin the market and remains their achillies heel.
http://quotes.nasdaq.com/asp/option_chain.asp?symbol=QQQ&selected=QQQ#OCT%202003
September MP on the QQQ's is rapidly approaching 34. This indictes any selloff prior to 9/19 expiration will be quick and shallow, IMO. I don't believe the QQQ's will trade below 33 near term, if it all for the balance of the month. October isn't looking any better for the bears at this point as MP is sitting at a solid 34 on the QQQ's presently. I believe most of the downturn will occur over the next session as some nervous bulls may not want to expose their positions ahead of the second anniversary of 9/11. If all is clear on 9/11, I would expect the QQQ's to continue trading flat to higher depending upon where price is relative to MP.
After expiry, I expect the QQQ's to trade at 35+. Until the bears capitulate, I don't see any sustained movement down in the indices.
I plan on removing my QQQ and CSCO short hedges by the close tomorrow and looking to put additional funds to work from the long side. As far as I am concerned, you and your fellow swingtrades should continue to prosper for the foreseeable future until the bears pack it in and step away.
As an aside, front month switches to the December contract starting this Thursday. December month symbol is "Z".
I would welcome your thoughts Buzz.
Good luck.
Regards,
Naz
MG - PPHM. Looks good for more upside.......................
Hope this helps. I'll be happy to post TA on any listed stock you like. Just let the monkey know.
TECHNICAL OPINION - PEREGRINE PHARMACEUTICALS (PPHM) - 09/09/2003
Daily Opinion: BUY
Tuesday's very Bullish (up) move, forming a recent high, is accompanied by increasing volume (231% of average), suggesting a continuation to further new highs. This is generally a very bullish sign.
Short-Term Opinion: OUTPERFORM
On a short-term technical basis, the trend is Bullish (up) and the stock is above its 50-day moving average at 1.56 which also confirms its Bullish (up) trend. The stock is neutral according to the Stochastic indicator (60.79).
Long Term Opinion: OUTPERFORM
On a long-term technical basis, the stock (PPHM) is trading above its 200-day moving average which implies it is in a positive trend.
The stock has support at 1.89 and 1.60. If the stock breaks down through support at 1.89 then it will probably continue lower to 1.60. The stock will meet resistance at 2.03 and 2.19. If the stock breaks up through resistance at 2.03 then it will probably continue higher to 2.19. The 200-day moving average is at 0.98. This will also act as support. The stock is slightly overbought according to the Stochastic Indicator (71.22).
Regards,
Naz
MG - I was referring to my average cost on my CYPB position being in the very high 6's. Ultimately, I'm looking for double digits on CYPB. We'll see.
Regards,
Naz