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Snackman and Ispro, at some point does the installed base really even matter? If companies want to use the TPM, they will seek Wave out whether or not the software is pre-installed or not. I would think pre-installation will become more important in a more competitive landscape where any advantage can make a big difference. Perhaps I am way off, but that's how I would see it. Feel free to set me straight.
John
So basically every installed TPM is a possible customer for Wave as the use of tpms increases.
John
Player,
if the wave software is uninstalled it can be re-installed, no?
Snackman,
I don't buy it...it must be a small shred:0) I am a big bear on the economy right now. This makes a growth stock like Wave even more appealing in my opinion on a relative basis.
Lot's to overcome in the economy. Banks still have troubling balance sheets, governments have poor balance sheets and consumers have poor balance sheets = troubling for me. However, buffet just increased his stakes in Wells and US bank, so maybe he knows something I don't know. Wave on the other hand, will be selling into a growing opportunity where IT dollars will have to be more intellegently invested for roi.
John
Snackman,
I think what they have done up until this point is absolutely amazing. The risks have been drastically reduced, but unfortunately they are now selling into a grizzly bear economy. Since they have survived until now, it seems pretty likely that they will be able to generate a combination of revenue and secondary offerings that will enable them to make it – unless the tcg is an absolute farce, i.e. there is a fundamental flaw in the approach. Revenue is up, expenses are down. Opportunities are growing. The tpm installed base is growing. More FDE drive makers are coming on line. Windows 7 will take greater advantage of the tpm. Intel is rolling out more tcg compliant chips. More connection points to a fully connected and secured world.
Wave has a tremendous story and has created a wonderful opportunity for shareholders. It will be incredibly interesting to see how this plays out, but it seems quite obvious that more is being invested in this space and security threats are not going away anytime soon. This will slowly become a best-practices solution (in my opinion) and when/if that is the case, there will be many happy investors. Until success or failure there will apparently be a great debate on the final outcome and the capabilities/competence of the crew running the show.
John
Doma,
so if you complain that makes you smart? Why is it a religion for me? Because I believe the company is positioned well and I act on my views? I will tell you that if I did not believe in the progress I would not be posting about it -- I would sell my shares or find a better outlet to try and make a difference.
Some investors focus on today and yesterday. When investing in new technologies it also makes sense to be forward looking...watching the company you are invested in and the space they are playing. That does not make me right and you wrong, but that is how I look at it. Personally, growth opportunitie are the only things that have any appeal right now, given the amount of excess capacity in the system there will not be many other attractive returns on capital.
John
Doma,
the company is better positioned than ever. You were happy with Wave five years ago. Yet you are frustrated today and the company is in a FAR better position. Mistakes have been made, but they have been off-set by smart maneuvering by Wave. The tpm market is obviously not fully developed, but that is slowly changing. The early adoption rate has been slow. That being said, I think you need to stop looking in the rear-view mirror and instead focus on the opportunities that are being created. If you are long and do not believe in the direction, management or opportunity, it seems silly to be long. If you have no position, it seems silly to be posting. If you are short, good for you for putting your money where your mouth is.
John
Doma,
they shouldn't. They should look at other info like expansion to new OEMs and existing OEM contracts as a leading indicator.
John
Helpful,
all jobs are easy when you don't actually have the respondibility of doing the work.
John
Tinypinetree,
agreed -- prospects look better than ever to me. There is a bigger and bigger push of trusted computing and Wave is front and center.
John
Weby,
if Intel, Dell, Seagate, etc... don't eventually use TPMs and FDE there is a problem.
John
Wildbear, my guess would be that the industry has run up against issues around overall penetration %. While a large organization may have a significant number of machines with TPMs, because of leasing or purchasing cycles, I bet very few have 100% penetration. I would also bet that for some institutions some threshold of penetration needs to be reached and then the dialogue of selling can begin. I will also note that I know diddly squat, but that’s what my gut tells me. The TCG solution requires hardware. Hardware + software solutions are much different than typical software only implementations.
This is a paradigm shift. At some point it will seem silly for corporations to not take advantage of hardware that is already in the box. When it becomes best practices at a couple of large institutions (e.g. Dell, Intel, any other TCG behemoth) it would seem to be a game-changer. Until then, the speculation will continue. At the same time, why is Dell, Acer, Intel and others deploying tech they do not ultimately intend to use themselves? Something is obviously holding this up.
John
Ramsey, well said. I think people are getting caught up with what sprague has said vs. the practical reality of a new tech. push. There is no doubt sprague has over estimated their ability to sell early. His comments have greatly de-valued the currency of his words. That being said, the future looks brighter than ever to me.
I am not familiar with Wave’s sales approach to end customers, so I cannot comment as others have on their approach to selling. The one thing I will note from what I have seen is that the message should be better customized to the audience. Use tech words for tech crowd, cost savings and efficiency for CEOs and general public. Also, it seems like a grand opportunity for some of the sales savvy investors who believe in the tech to make an easy buck.
John
Barge, if Wave is denying involvement, they are likely not involved as disappointing as that may be.
Secure the data of your mobile workforce:
http://www.wave.com/collateral/470682_ClientSecurityBrochure_FINAL_2%2017.pdf
I am not familiar with HID.
Somebody is willing to pay .29 -- unles their bid moves up, why would the price change?
John
MIB,
that is a good question. I suspect that member companies are doing what you say and as soon as we hear of it, we will all feel better. However, I find it hard to believe that Western Digital is going to deploy Seagate hardrives. In other words, I bet some of the members are waiting for their own products.
John
As long as Wave can take care of financing -- it seems much easier from here…more TPMs, more FDEs, Intel encryption, etc. Faster, cheaper, and more secure is ultimately an easy sales pitch. There will be a saturation point that eliminates the compatibility issue.
John
Armp,
how many people does the company employ?
John
Alea,
I have used many consultants/contractors. I imagine the consultants wave is using can be dismissed at any time. Unless you are truling using consultants and not contractors, that is usually the way it works.
John
Nice news today! Another confirmation point and a little less to worry about.
John
MIB, one more time. The business environment for Wave's products has never been better. Forget about the cash position, as I have already noted that as tenuous. I am talking business prospects. Prove me wrong.
John
Allandinator, in regard to capital, yes. In regard to business prospects, obviously no.
Jhon
MIB, revenues are at the highest levels and growing. There is more business in the pipeline than ever. There are more TPMs deployed than ever. Dell is increasing the licensing fee they are paying Wave. Hardware FDE is making further penetration. These are all good things. From a business perspective, Wave is in the best position it has ever been. However, they need money to run the business. That being said, good ideas and the right sales pitch will always attract capital.
I would provide you with a more broader response, but I do not have time.
John
There is no doubt Wave is in the best position it has ever been from a business perspective. There is also little doubt that Wave has ever been in a more precarious financial position. The game has been to finance small amounts and wait for better terms in the future. For the most part, this has been a losing approach.
I believe SKS and co. have believed news that will be tied to future revenue will move the stock. Unfortunatley, investors do not have a way to gauge any relationship building news, because it has produced little in the way of $$$ to date. As a result, here is where we stand. It is both sweet and sour. Unfortunately, without money, you have no business so the sour overwhelms the sweet.
Hopefully they raise money soon. I have little doubt in their ability to do so, but there will be much anxiety and hopelessness around here until it is done. Everything points to Wave being in the center of the managment of this new hardware that will inevitably used at increasing rates. However, that is a tough story to sell with an empty bank account.
John
Wavedoctor, investors are talking about tvtonic because ther is a void of new and meaningful topics to talk about. SKS needs to give an update on the sales cycle and other progress. There should also be some further vetting on the tvtonic valuation as well. I do not recall the SKS quote, but I still do not know how the market can value tvtonic. I agree with helpful and others, things are moving forward, but the pace is pleasing to no one.
John
Ramsey,
if they do, they might be the first!:)
John
tkc,
this would likely show up on the income statement, but it is non-recurring revenue. As you know the real value would be in having raised cash efficiently.
John
Fullmoon, what about it?
John
Muenchen,
I do not know how anyone can reasonably estimate the value of the NBC deal with information in the public realm. I do see it as the best validation of the technology to date by a long-shot, but I have no clue on the ultimate value to Wave.
John
Awk,
do you have a shareholder meeting summary?
John
Dell power solutions:
http://www.dell.com/downloads/global/power/ps2q08.pdf
Seagate FDE with wave management software on page 101.
John
Helpful,
that's the thing. I would argue investing now is less risky than it was ten years ago. When I first invested ten years ago, I invested in a theory of a better way. Today a dollar is invested on the notion that the largest technology companies have been accurate in their judgement that TPMs, FDE hardware, etc will ultimately be used to their fullest potential. Quite a difference, yet we are at a psychological low.
John
Player, I am a simple guy, so I make simple points, lol. Following up on my simple point, my only concern about the share price is in regard to raising money. I personally would never raise enough money to run a business for one quarter, even if I was about to unveil a car that runs on water. Unexpected events happen. I have voiced my concern on this matter to management. I will admit I have not been presented with all of the data points that Wave management has to make funding decisions. However, I do know there are real benefits to having plenty of working capital.
John
Helpful,
the symphony of trusted computing is getting louder and louder, although some people will not hear it until they have a tuba in their face. It will be real when Wave sells upgrades. Until then, investors have to determine whether opportunities are expanding or contracting. I for one believe there IS a reason for seeing further proliferation of the elements necessary for trusted computing. I also believe Wave will materially benefit when trusted computing turns the corner and becomes something you use and not just something you read about.
John
Player,
the simple point is the inflated price predicted nothing.
John
It is interesting that as the opportunities have become greater and closer, the share price has declined. Share price is not necessarily predictive of prospects. The price/share was $150 7-8 years ago.
John
An interesting presentation:
http://boston.naisg.org/Archive/2008/01TPC/Default_files/frame.htm
Snackman,
that is all-out quacky if people are selling because they got an e-mail telling them to do so. All long Wave investors have been wrong up until this point, unfortunately I am among the wrong. However, there appears to be a real business model behind this industry wide push...so I hold.
John
Genz, me too. One thing is for certain, hardware security is becoming more and more pervasive. You can trust that at some point someone will turn it on.
John