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Over five times normal volume.
wow
The volume is the key indicator.
i think what's going on is that the socalled 'execution risk' is rapidly diminishing. The market is just beginning to recognize that this enterprise is set to go and is being well managed.
just a hunch
Yup. bid moving up & there is little being offered.
we'll see.
Yup. the bid is much higher today.
so it will happen sooner or later......
ian's report was fantastic. his comments on the skill
based games was very very interesting.
I'll stick my neck out & say we break resistance today!
not much stock out there being offered.....
just a hunch
ian forgot to ask you.........
do you have a guess as to what the revenues could be
yearend 2011? maybe a range....
thanks
ian GREAT REPORT!!!
i am guesstimating that QPSA will have a yearend 2011
membership of about 55 million. By 2Q 2011 the execution
risk will be pretty much gone.
Your comments about the skill based games revenue potential are
very interesting. It appears that QPSA could ramp up its
monetization alot faster than some of its peers.
thanks for your report
yup. i am looking at delayed quotes.
but the volume today is way over the daily average.
yeah. probably so....but look at the Volume now.
things are really heating up!!
Wow. The spread is really tightening up!!
I am betting that with the bid at $5.40 now they will raise
the ask over $5.50. This may break resistance.
just guessing.
I see $5.49 last trade. you mentioned the ask
price when up. I am wondering whether they raised the
ask over $5.50. I think the bid is up to $540 now.
Is it over $5.50 now?
This technical outlook on QPSA may be interesting
http://www.barchart.com/opinions/stocks/QPSA
CharlesD......great volume today.
this is very good
CharlesD I like the volume today.
The fascinating aspect of this investment is that QPSA is the
only publicly traded vehicle in this space. FaceBook and all
the others are privately held.
So, if someone wants to participate in this arena, then they
have to consider QPSA.
What's even more interesting is that QPSA is the leader in Latin
America, which is the fastest growing global market.
pretty fantastic
samk you are right.
the new guy at HP might move things along. Who knows?
one of the branches in the govt is going to activate the TPM
and activate WAVX along with it.
It's about time to get another bellwether contract like the
GM one. that would be nice.
Something has got to happen somewhere. We are juggling alot of
balls in the air and something has to hit big.
just a matter of time.
Good performance today relative to the market
geez...the Nasdaq got smacked.
Beltrones...isn't he the President of the Senate?
pretty cool. others will follow,i assume.
Well, Snackman we have 3 months left.
we have 3 months to hit your 2010 goal of $10.
I still very much believe in the super bull case for
WAVX. I would be happy with $5 or $6 by year end.
What do you think could happen to get us there?
thanks
CharlesD just so you understand
if we project 60 million users by the end of next year
(i am splitting the difference between your numbers and
mine) and then say that QPSA generates revenues of $1 per
user....this gets us a $60 million revenue number.
However you have to blend the number over twelve months and this
gets an ave number of 43 million. Multiply that by $1 and you
get $43 million.
OK.....let's kick in $10 million in ad revenues. This brings the
total to $53 million.
Let's say that a big company wants to acquire a company in this
space for whatever reason. OK....these days high growth companies
are being bought out at seven to ten times trailing revenues.
OK....let's be conservative and use a five times number.
$53 X 5 = $265 million
13 million shares O/S so that gets us $20.40 per share which is
very close to your number!!
CharlesD see my latest updated post with new #s.
I think you have a yearend 2011 user number of 66 million.
is that right?
CharlesD...great chart!
Just to be ultra conservative I will stick with a yearend
user number of 55 million. We agree with this year's end of the
year tally of around 27 million. I am going to say that they
average new user additions per month of about 2.3 million. This
gets me to almost exactly 55 million by December 2012.
OK....so let's say conservatively we have 55 million users by
12/2011. Right now it looks like FaceBook is generating about
$20 per user in revenues. How do I get that number? Well, analysts
are saying that FB is producing revenues of about $1 Billion on
about 500 million users. So, that's $2 per user in revenues.
OK...let's say that QPSA only generates 1/4 of that because it
is smaller than FaceBook and doesn't have the same brandname yet.
So, if QPSA is only $1 per user in revenues and I take a blended
average of users next year (40 million) then we get $40 million.
Add in 10 million in revenues from ads and you get $50 million.
Companies like QPSA are being bought out at about seven times
revenues. Cut that back to four times revenues gets you to
about $200 million market cap.
there are 13 million shares O/S. so that gets you to about
$15 per share.
a little more conservative than you but still amazing growth. And
I am using very very conservative numbers, i think!
CharlesD....markets are down too.
QPSA will move significantly when revenue numbers start
to ratchet up.
jmho
Good Volume today.
i wonder why. LOL!!!!
CharlesD..they are 'viral' in Brazil.
that says alot.
I like the fact that the management team is all from
Stanford/Harvard Univ. The Stanford boys know their technology
stuff. I know because i am a Stanford guy and the networking
is pretty strong. Networking is key.
Mexico is a lock because we have the Chairman of AHMSA as our
biggest fan. Lots of pull.
It is viral in Brazil!
and Brazil is the biggest market (in this space) in the
world.
So, in this respect it is very very GOOD.
I would imagine it would start to cascade over into Uruguay,
Colombia and Argentina pretty soon.
Mexico is pretty much a LOCK!!
and then there is the big Hispanic market in the good ole
USA.
amazing....
Number of visits was WAY UP in September.
QPSA is borderline 'viral' which is a very very very GOOD
THING!!!!
QPSA adds MORE than 2 Million new users!!!!
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Quepasacom-Adds-a-Record-2-iw-953751160.html?x=0&.v=1
Now it looks pretty definite that we will have more than
25 million users by yearend and MUCH MORE than 50 million
users by year end 2011.
WOW
Dabears....just viewed the NSA/HAP video.
Just spectacular!!! General Dynamics PC uses Wave
Systems software for TPM management. This is a fact.
FACT!
We Wavoids know this FACT but no one else in the world
knows it. How do we spread the message?
If Wave Systems cannot spread the message, then how can
we do it for them?
How much longer do we have to wallow in the murky depths
of non recognition?
Where is the justice in this world? When will we Wavoids
gain the respect that we deserve?
CharlesD you are most probably right!
I think the icing on the cake is the revenue picture. We
don't really have a clear picture right now how the growth
in revenues is developing.
Once we get a firm idea of how the revenue growth is developing,
then I think you could see a whole new dynamic begin.
By the end of the year we ought to be getting a better handle
on this subject.
CharlesD...i think QPSA did more than 1.8million!
You may be right that QPSA did only 1.8 million new users in
September but i think you are being conservative.
In August QPSA added 1.8 million users. In July they added
1.4 million. So, the growth in new users from July 31 thru
end of August was a WHOPPING 400,000 increase. That's viral.
that's almost a 30% increase in JUST ONE MONTH!!!!
So, i think Ian Cassel is conservatively accurate to say new
additions of about 1.9 to 2 million for September. that would
represent a growth of only about 5% month over month. Pretty
conservative.
But anyway.....if we say that they grew about 1.95 million (let's
split the difference) that would mean that we will end the year
with at least 25 million users.
With a lowball 5% growth month over month, by June of 2011 we
should be growing new users each month by about 2.5 million users.
At that growth we would easily have 50 million new users by
the end of next year. Frankly, it should be somewhere between 55
million to 60 million.
If we take 60 million users and attribute a lowball per user
valuation of $12.50...then we would come up with a theoretical
market cap of $713 million. There are about 13 million shares
outstanding so the theoretical per share valuation would be
about $55.
OK...that seems a little high so let's just cut in half in order
to be conservative. This still leaves us with a per share valuation
of $26.
The incredible thing about this is that we are taking a user
valuation of only $12.50 in making these back of the envelope
calculations. This meager valuation is way way below the valuation
numbers being used for Facebook.
interesting stuff
yup. Ladenburg is valuing the QPSA user @ $12.50
that's pretty conservative but in line with the socalled
execution risk. In August QPSA added about 1.9million new
users. So, it stands to reason that they could be closing
in on 2 million new users for September. Let's say they
grow the user base by about 40,000 per month or maybe a little
more. If so, then by June of 2011 they ought to be adding about
2.4 million new users per month. If this happens, then QPSA
should have a user base of about 55 million by year end 2011.
I could be off by a couple million give or take but that seems
a reasonable number. And if this all happens, then like you
say, one can eliminate or greatly diminish the execution risk.
What do you think the monthly revenue rate could be with a
user base of 55 million?
hey Ian...i was expecting about 2mm new users.
right in line with their growth rate. 45 million by Oct.
2011 and over 50 million users by yearend 2011. This may
be a tad conservative because i expect a monthly add rate
of about 2.5 million/month by mid year in 2011. So, if this
occurs then QPSA could have about 55 million users by yearend
2011. Using the Ladenburg Thalmann valuation chart on page
17 of their report, a 55 million user base (@ $15/user) would
translate into about $26/share sometime toward the end of next
year.
wavedreamer...
I am a long time proponent and have been connecting the
proverbial dots for many years. I have been shouting from
the mountain tops for many years that WAVE SYSTEMS is the
real deal. I know all about HAP and I know for a fact that
the NSA is a HUGE FAN of Wave.
But for Pete's Sake!!!! Why can't we get a clear cut crystal
clear set of statements that Wave Systems is one of the key
ingredients to this whole business.
It is all so murky and mysterious. Everything points to Wave
Systems!!! But there is never a clear unambiguous statement
saying that Wave is one of the key components. It is always
so 'one step away' from a clear statement of FACT.
just tell us it's Wave Systems that has the real stuff and get
it the hell over with....for Pete's sake!!!!
geeeezzzz...........
wavedreamer
why can't they just come out and say CLEARLY that WAVE
SYSTEMS manages the TPM in the TXT????
Just say it!!!!!
be done with it! GEEEEEEEZZZZZZZZZZZZZ.........................
Hoping for 2million new registered users in Sept.!!
It's doable. I guess we will find out early next week.
if we hit that rate, then 50mm users by YE2011 is pretty
much a done deal
Wave @ TSCP and the TPM/Trusted certificates
http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewiStockNews/articleid/4497113
Emphasize the role of the TPM and digital certificates.
now read:
http://www.fidis.net/resources/deliverables/hightechid/int-d37002/doc/9/
now think about malworms.
testing testing testing...
Just FYI here is a technical snapshot on QPSA
http://quotes.barchart.com/quotes/stocks/QPSA
jut thought it would be interesting to folks here.
ian October will be a 2mm user add month!
November will be 2.10mm user add
December will be 2.20mm user add.
QPSA will be darn close to 25mm users by yearend.
For next year QPSA will be well over 50mm....probably
closer to 55mm.
Using the Ladenburg Thalmann chart on pg. 17 of their report
I think we will see the share price bearing down $20. Maybe
more if this thing goes viral.
what do you think?
the bid/ask spread is so large
that no one dares sell and it's tough to buy.