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"Everyone invested in IDCC needs to fully understand that management with the information they have CAN NOT give the guidance on individual companies future growth. It is impossible."
I disagree.
NEC has an idea of what 3G shipments will go off this quarter. Their is an order for 6 Million hand sets from Hutchison. What percentage of this order will be filled in Q2?
SHARP has a deal with DOCOMO to provide 3G handsets. Their has to be some idea of what number is projected to be delivered during Q2.
RIMM is selling a lot of phones right now. Their has to be some idea of how many or what percentage of these devices are revenue bearing to IDCC.
Now to predict exact numbers is immpossible. To have a vauge range of projected numbers is. Everyone of these companies mentioned has given their covering analysts guidance for what they believe theior sales to be. You can take their guidance and build a rough IDCC revenue stream guidance with these numbers.
Let me add that I feel it is important for IDCC to develop a model to which they can comfortably project a possible range of revenue numbers. Analysts need these ranges to build their financial reports and paint a picture for their client base. Every company does this. Every company at some point misses either on the upside or the downside. Also every company has to change guidance when they discover events that will affect revenues either up or down.
IDCC can not play a different game then everyone else on wall street. They should come up with a "best guess" as to what will happen. If they miss so be it, it would not be the first time a company misses guidance and it won't be the last.
For me in this particular investment it is all about the revenues.
If they continue to generate numbers like the ones coming out monday compensation and dilution will be irrelevant.
All companies over compensate management, this is how it works on wall street. Whether it is Jack Welch, Bill Gates, Sandy Weil, you can make a case for over compensation and dilution everywhere.
I don't think any shareholder of Microsoft can accuse Bill Gates of Dilution.
The difference is in delivery. These three delivered and the Jury is still out on Harry and Howard.
My stance is if IDCC continues to deliver quarter over quarter earnings and revenue growth then I'm very much in favor of compensation including Harry and Roath.
If IDCC staggers and goes backwards like last quarter then I very much against compensation and keeping management status quo. (still would like to bring in some big guns from other successful companies).
Basically we are in the phase of this companies life when results talk and crap walks. I'm very much interested in hearing what they have to say about next quarter. The big questions I have.
1. Will NEC sustain this pace.
2. Will Sharp increase its 3G sales.
3. Will the chip revenue stream from INFINEON being substantial($1 mil per quarter).
4. What will be the revenue growth rates of the RIMM deal.
5. What will be the revenue growth rates of the HTC deal.
6. When can we expect revenue from Panasonic and will we get revenue from sales outside Japan.
These are all questions pointed at the current revenue stream. I know the answers that will be given for the new revenue streams.
The bottom line is if IDCC can sustain revenue growth this year without Nokia/Samsung then this stock will do very well and we will all make a lot of money.
So right now I'm pleased with my investment because IDCC has delivered what I wanted solid revenue growth. The market is not rewarding them for it yet and I'm hoping this starts on Monday.
I'm a firm beleiver in taking advantage of Market opportunities when they are given to you. Bought some June 12.50's when IDCC crashed. Sold some during the press release run up. Bought them back again today. Like to make up for my loses in UTSI.
I feel that in IDCC's case the earnings were PRICED OUT of the stock for some reason. The numbers pre-released do not justify this stock price.
5 to 10 years is not in my time frame, I'm more of a 5 to 10 days guy. I trade everyday. Some days very, very good. Lately it has been very, very bad.
Lets hope for a GREAT MONDAY!!!!
One has to look at the NASDAQ and NYSE to understand what is happening lately. Case in point today.
Robust April Jobs Data Spur Rate Fears
Friday May 7, 5:47 pm ET
By Glenn Somerville
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. employment swelled for a second straight month in April with American employers adding 288,000 more jobs to payrolls for the strongest two-month gain in four years, the Labor Department said on Friday.
Am I missing something? Isn't this good news?
Basically we were in a lose/lose situation this morning. Numbers bad recession back stocks crash. Numbers good rate hike probable markets crash.
Hopefully next week will be better.
I'm way past compensation topics. My investment strategy is very focused on revenues. I was extremely upset with last quarters number.
Total Revenue 24,683
And expressed my displeasure numerous times.
I'm very happy about this quarter.
InterDigital expects first-quarter revenue of $31 million to $32 million, operating expenses of about $25 million, and net income of 6 cents to 8 cents per diluted share. It will report May 10.
I'm also very concerned about next quarters guidance.
So here is my .02 cents on compensation. If IDCC produces revenues and earnings like this quarter, I'm for it. If IDCC produces lame numbers and loses like last quarter I'm against it.
The market is very much about what have you done for me lately. Last quarter is history, next quarter is a mystery. My money is on a strong opening monday where I'll unload some options purchased today. I'll keep my very large core until Jan. 2005 and hope IDCC kicks Nokia's butt in arbitration.
I added shares today in anticipation of a very good day on Monday.
Prior to the NASDAQ crash IDCC hit $17.96 on an intraday high.
This was also prior to IDCC's PR stating revenues of $31 to $32 million and an EPS number of .08 cents or .11 cents above the concensus of -.03.
26-Apr-04 17.46 17.96 17.40 17.61 440,100 17.61
The morning of the PR IDCC hits $19.50 or $2.47 lower than it is now.
30-Apr-04 18.47 19.50 17.26 17.38 4,143,000 17.38
Last Trade: 17.03
Also we have had an analyst upgrade.
Interdigital Comm upgraded by First Albany
Mon, May 3 - Briefing.com
So the probability that IDCC will go down on Monday is very small. With the exception of another NASDAQ meltdown I don't see it.
Bottomline, this quarter is the best quarter of recurring revenues this company has ever had.
I say we hit $18 monday. Happy trading.
We were in "economic discussions" with Nokia regarding Phase II rates for 4 years. LG has had plenty of time to "discuss" rates. It is simple, 2G rate ERICSSON, 3G rate NEC/SHARP.
I know it probably is a lot more complicated than that but the framewrok is in place and I think that LG's deadline for accepting these terms match the delivery schedule of the Hutchinson order. This company has not paid 1 red cent for 2G/3G or any G for that matter.
Time to send Paulie Walnuts after LG. My thinking is suing lucent accomplishes two things. First, it helps the tantivy people get money for their IPR and second and more important it may be another Nokia trigger. But after the latest announcement by Hutchison stating they will buy 3G headsets from LG, I feel it is time to act.
The folks at NEC can't be feeling great about sending millions of dollars to IDCC then watch a competitor who sends nothing cut in on their action. LG has no reason in the world not to pay. The framework is set for 2G by the Ericsson settlement and 3G by both the Nokia and Sharp agreements.
In the world of IP licensing patience is sometimes not the best method. We have seen time and time again companies stall, delay, and pull every trick in the book not to pay. Well Nokia and Samsung are in arbitration, Motorola has already won one law suit so it doesn't make sense to revisit them at this time, Ericsson is paying 2G and I have no doubt that they will pay 3G after the Nokia arb, so LG pays nothing and never has. Now they want to compete with IDCC's biggest customer.
I do not feel their is anything to gain by being patient with LG and a lot to lose. Hitting them with a law suit now will send a clear signal to handset makers that they need to pay up. Also It tells our loyal customers NEC and SHARP that the playing field will be level.
No, 55 million is the shares outstanding. The float is usually the shares outstanding minus the number of shares held by insiders. I think they assume that these shares are not readily available for trading.
Shares Outstanding: 55.32M
Float: 49.80M
% Held by Insiders: 9.97%
sjratty,
Thank you for taking the time to breakdown the arbitration process for us. Your post clarifies the existing time table of Jan.
IDCC will hit $27.00 a share between now and Nov
I posted part of Warren Buffets address to his shareholders earlier in the day.
"A long term-oriented value investor is a batter in a game where no balls or strikes are called, allowing dozens, even hundreds of pitches to go by, including many at which other batters would swing. Value investors are students of the game; they learn from every pitch, those at which they swing and those they let pass by. They have infinite patience and are willing to wait until they are thrown a pitch they can handle  an undervalued investment opportunity."
Patience at this point in time will be rewarded.
I believe with a high level of certainty that IDCC will hit $27 again regardless of any new licenses.
The Nokia arbitration case is representing a $500 million plus arbitrage situation. By November investors, traders, funds and you may even see some companies will want to put some "skin" in the game. I strongly believe the last run up was based on the belief that Nokia would be settled by July. By November the same players will come back and drive the price back up to the previous high of $27 a share.
So unless the case is settled by then the chances that the stock price will hit that number are extremely large. Also it doesn't matter whether they win or lose arbitration the stock price will go up prior to the hearing. If they lose it will crash severly. If they win we will have a RIMM SHOT. You can argue whether they will win or not but regardless I feel the stock price will go up in anticipation of a win.
THE FAT PITCH by Warren Buffet
VI. Wait for the Perfect Pitch
That brings us to the next core principle: waiting for the perfect pitch and then having the conviction to smash it out of the park. Seth Klarman addressed this analogy in Margin of Safety:
A long term-oriented value investor is a batter in a game where no balls or strikes are called, allowing dozens, even hundreds of pitches to go by, including many at which other batters would swing. Value investors are students of the game; they learn from every pitch, those at which they swing and those they let pass by. They have infinite patience and are willing to wait until they are thrown a pitch they can handle  an undervalued investment opportunity.
By the way, I believe that having the patience to wait on those fat pitches is an area in which the savvy individual investor has an edge over most professional money managers. The pressure on professional managers to act, especially when stocks are going up, was beautifully summed up by Buffett at the 1999 Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting:
"The stock market is a no-called strike game. You don't have to swing at everything -- you can wait for your pitch. The problem when you're a money manager is that your fans keep yelling, "Swing, you bum!"
The pressure to act, whether it is internal or external, must be resisted until a compelling investment idea presents itself.
My expectations have changed. When I was involved in the compensation debate (on the side against compensation I might add). I thought we would tie compensation to stock price. When I researched Year over year returns from Dec. 31 2002 to Dec 31 2003 I found we have had a substantial price increase.
31-Dec-02 14.88 15.09 14.40 14.56 438,100 14.56
31-Dec-03 20.77 20.80 20.50 20.60 336,200 20.60
So we have about a 40% increase in stock price.
Now when I look at revenue growth I get some very nice numbers.
PERIOD ENDING 31-Dec-03 31-Dec-02 31-Dec-01
Total Revenue 114,574 87,895 52,562
If we did not have this very nice quarter ($31 to $32 million) I'd be very supportive of your position ($7 Million dollars for compensation as excessive). But Fridays release changes things as far as I'm concerned. It projects out year over year revenue growth and brings us back to profitability as well as being in a cash flow positive position leading into the Nokia arbitration.
I am now confident that we are on the right track and I'm no longer focused on compensation issues. I beleive with the current revenue stream IDCC can justify a $22 to $24 price without Nokia/Samsung. I'd also be satisfied with that pricing until the Nokia resolution.
Now, the 3rd qtr?
This is the quarter I'm least worried about. Nokia is a huge question mark but has the potential of being our RIMM SHOT.
23-Dec-03 58.50 69.93 58.30 69.61 58,375,400 69.61
22-Dec-03 45.29 46.72 45.01 46.10 4,482,600 46.10
Everyone knows this and the money will flow in prior to the January hearing. This money was flowing into IDCC prior to the March CC and caused us to go to $27.45 in the first place.
17-Feb-04 26.29 27.45 26.18 26.86 2,100,100 26.86
The smart money will want to be in this play. Way too much upside to sit on the sidelines and wait for it to unfold. By the 3rd quarter(November) I fully expect at least $5 a share of Nokia money factored in. Right now we have $0 dollars of Nokia in the current stock price.
I think next quarter is the key for IDCC's price to stabilize.
Without a new license it may be tough to match this quarters $31 to $32 million in revenue. If we get a panasonic revenue stream via the JPO or the IPX chip revenue is projected to be substantial ($1+ million per quarter) that might do the trick.
Basically I figure we have about 7 months(October) to sweat out before Nokia arbitrage money comes flowing back in. What I'd really love to see is a full court press on LG. IMO, Motorola won't happen till after Nokia, Samsung we know will follow Nokia lead, Ericsson is already paying and will want to wait for others to pay before they anti up more dollars so the only big player not sending IDCC one red cent is LG.
I'll take a Novatel or Palmone deal but I'd be dancing if LG got signed within the next 3 months. That would absolutely cause price support all the way until Jan.
TIMEOUT
What makes this board special is the unique diverse talent of its posters. Maybe you don't like hearing what they have to say but we need to at least acknowledge their opinion and respect their views.
Sjratty for instance is a patent attorney who was the only person I have read to have correctly called the timing of the Nokia arbitration. In a dispute of this magnitude why would we not want to listen to someone who day in and day out handles these cases.
Alley is a Technical analysis expert who takes his time to breakdown the current situation for all board member. Because the technicals look bad we still need to know what is going on.
How about Ronnie who probably has done more research in IDCC that any other member of this board. His reasons for buying IDCC should be sent to every analyst in America. Just because he is not happy with thecompensation structure doesn't mean we should shut him up.
If a long term shareholders posts something negative it should be viewed as a legimate concern and discussed. We don't need to label posters as bashers to attempt to discredit their opinions. We should take their opinions and post opposing views if we disagree and be tolerant of what they have to say.
It is the communications sector specifically wireless that is getting hit since last week. If we did not get that press release on Friday we would be trading in the $14 range. Money will return to the sector when the NASDAQ starts cranking again or this interest rate cloud goes one way or another.
SWIR
26-Apr-04 28.98 30.24 28.78 29.02 1,903,800 29.02
3-May-04 22.52 23.66 21.27 21.50 2,364,400 21.50
OPWV
27-Apr-04 11.50 11.58 11.36 11.55 1,227,800 11.55
30-Apr-04 9.45 9.52 8.40 8.61 3,171,300 8.61
UTSI
27-Apr-04 30.30 30.50 29.75 30.42 4,549,500 30.42
3-May-04 26.62 27.03 25.80 26.31 2,766,600 26.31
LU
19-Apr-04 4.21 4.34 4.19 4.33 48,494,100 4.33
3-May-04 3.41 3.41 3.25 3.30 51,766,300 3.30
NT
27-Apr-04 5.70 5.76 5.61 5.64 22,784,000 5.64
3-May-04 3.77 3.83 3.33 3.38 106,998,304 3.38
NVTL
26-Apr-04 21.70 21.84 20.84 21.20 585,700 21.20
3-May-04 14.74 15.24 14.00 14.04 1,474,000 14.04
CLST
23-Apr-04 9.07 9.30 8.89 9.10 94,200 9.10
3-May-04 6.77 6.93 6.56 6.65 262,600 6.65
CELL
27-Apr-04 14.18 14.70 14.07 14.46 412,100 14.46
3-May-04 11.10 11.41 9.81 10.20 1,117,500 10.20
vg,
That is what we are all here for to make money. Right now I'm surprized that more people are not focused on Fridays press release. We will have a 25% increase in sequential quarter to quarter revenues. This is the best news we have had since Ericsson signing. The market eventually goes in the direction of proper value and this quarter will definately take us up to a new trading range ($20+) when the NASDAQ returns to bullish trends.
My main concern will be past this quarter. Can we beat $32 million in quarterly revs with this license base? I certainly hope so. The way I see it is even if we have a small sequential increase in the August release will will have a big pop by the November release when arbitrage money starts flowing back in anticipating a Nokia settlement.
If investing is a marathon then investing in IDCC is like 3 triathalons put together. Last quarter was a stumble but this quarter looks like we got a second wind. For now I'm very confident that we will all be smiling at the fin ish line.
One needs to look at the communications sector to understand why IDCC is in this trading pattern. Unfortunately I own LU, NT and UTSI. They are trading NT down again today. A 40% haricut in the last few trading days.
30-Apr-04 3.98 4.05 3.70 3.74 62,716,200 3.74
29-Apr-04 3.86 4.08 3.80 3.85 107,413,104 3.85
28-Apr-04 4.14 4.31 3.80 4.05 310,022,496 4.05
27-Apr-04 5.70 5.76 5.61 5.64 22,784,000 5.64
UTSI I thought had great numbers $622 million in revenues, .40 cents a share in earnings, Year over Year revenue growth projected to be over 50% with 2006 numbers to be $3.5 billion.
29-Apr-04 28.15 28.35 26.75 27.27 5,169,300 27.27
28-Apr-04 29.17 29.50 27.87 28.17 5,026,300 28.17
27-Apr-04 30.30 30.50 29.75 30.42 4,549,500 30.42
They go from $30.42 to $26.36.
We need buying in this sector to get our price where it should be. This has nothing to do with manipulation and everything to do with money flow, IMO.
NASDAQ is looking good today. The Marsala upgrade was great news. A new deal by the next CC will propel us upward.
One of the big problems with IDCC is expectations. At $27 a share no one was happy because we want Nokia and $50 a share.
They need to consistantly grow revenues quarter by quarter. Last quarter was bad and we paid dearly. Wall Street hates technology stocks that do not grow.
This quarters numbers look huge. A 25% sequential increase will make people take notice. This is without one-times based on recurring revenues.
I have lowered my expectations based on the latest price action. My target price range until Nokia is settled is $22 to $24 a share. If we use Marsala's revenue number of $130 million we can project a $1.3 billion dollar market cap using the 10x revenue model.
With 55 million shares I get about $23.60.
History is History.
What we got today was something that we have all been screaming for, a timely, accurate, positive press release. IMO, the heads at KOP have taken a major step in the right direction by having this hit the market as soon as the NEC numbers were digested. Past is past and I believe the company is learning from it.
These are the numbers I have been looking for. ($31 million in revs). That equates to $124 million plus or at 10x revenues a $1.24 Billion dollar cap. The next important factor is can they keep it going? If they can project similar revenues for next quarter we will be in great shape. Price will be above $20 maybe even hit $22.50. ($1.24 billon cap / 55 million shares = $22.54). Consistant foward progress is what we need along with quarter to quarter revenue growth. That is what wall street wants.
In this game numbers ALWAYS win. If they put up the right numbers no one will care about Harry, Roath, Fagan, Howard or Merit. This is a bottomline business put up GREAT numbers you are GOLDEN put up bad numbers you are a BUM.
Right now they look pretty darn golden.
I'm not expecting any major events. The only license I'm hoping for is Novatel Wireless.
What we needed was clear, acurate and timely communications. That is what I believe they have done today. This was the first time in my 4 1/2 years here where IDCC did this. This is the way to communicate with the street.
In a good NASDAQ market these number merit $20 a share. Unfortunately we are in a bad NASDAQ market.I'd be happy to be back at $20 when the market turns. By next quarter (August earnings announcement) Nokia money should start to be pricing in. If we do not have any other delays or any other bad news we should be approaching new 52 week highs by November leading up to the Jan. hearings.
A positive Nokia/Sam settlement makes this a $50 stock in a good market. We still have $0 dollars from Nokia priced in.
First, congradulations to management on a job well done.
Sell off make no sense at all. We closed at $17.38 after hitting $19.50. It looks like once the NASDAQ fell under 2000 the other day all hell broke loose.
Now trading at less than the open price 3 days ago.
29-Apr-04 16.71 16.88 15.67 15.75 644,300 15.75
28-Apr-04 16.98 17.33 16.65 16.65 367,700 16.65
27-Apr-04 17.53 17.80 17.00 17.09 235,900 17.09
RED is the color of the WEEK.
Maybe we get some analyst upgrades but what we really need now is a good old fashion NASDAQ RALLY.
Real Time ECN Quote
Interdigital Communications Corp Bid Ask
17.91 18.90
TD Waterhouse shows $18 bid.
ECN Extended Hours Quote
15.70 0.05 0.32% 0
Last (Apr 30, 2004) Change Change % Volume
0.00 0.00 18.00 2,000 18.90 1,000
High Low Bid Bid Size Ask Ask Size
ECN Extended Hours Quote
15.70 0.05 0.32% 0
Last (Apr 30, 2004) Change Change % Volume
0.00 0.00 18.00 2,000 18.90 1,000
High Low Bid Bid Size Ask Ask Size
Jim,
The investors do not want to sell they want to send a message to management. The messege is.
1. We are not satisfied with the stock price performance of the company to date and do not agree that you have hit 100% of the 2003 goals.
2. Because we are not satified we do not believe you should be overly compensated with RSU's and bonuses.
It is perfectly fine to exercises ones right as a shareholder and voice displeasure.
I think their are two very, very different issues at hand that are getting combined.
The first issue is licence signing. This is indeed an extremely difficult and slippery task. It takes time. We have Nokia probbly slowing everything down untill 2005. Because of this revenues will be limited and the stock price will suffer. I do not fault management for this.
The second issue is excess compensation above salary. Every shareholder found out in March that they not only lost all 30% to 40% of their investment but they must wait 12 months to get their investment back. Again out of the control of management and frustrating for the long term shareholder.
Now we have some bad timing for IDCC management. The ASM is coming up and they need to publish the 2004 compensation plan. This press release could not have come at a worse time and caused shareholder sentiment to become negative.
So the negative posts that I've read here in the 3 weeks since this press release have been fair. I've seen many CEO's forfeit compensation in years where stock prices have severly declined.
So when we see statements like this
"strengthen alignment with shareholder interests."
We get angry. If they truely wanted to align themselves with shareholder interests they would hold off on compensation until the stock price breaks $20.
olddog,
I believe we should draft a proposal for next years meeting to tie management excess compensation (RSU and bonuses) to share price performance. I've always been in favor of pricing management options out of the money (20% above stock price).
It is getting counter productive to just bitch and not act. I'm not convinced voting Roath off is biting our nose to spite our face. It is probably too late this year to take any action. Besides they would probably merit bonuses and RSU's this year based on the year over year stock price performance.
31-Dec-03 20.77 20.80 20.50 20.60 336,200 20.60
31-Dec-02 14.88 15.09 14.40 14.56 438,100 14.56
Goals of 20% returns year over year will trigger full execution of bonuses and compensation. All management would have to do is get the price to approximately $25.00 a share by Dec 31st and they get their stock.
A plan like this would certainly help shareholders feel more aligned to management and few would complain about compensation if they were getting 20% returns on their money.
Jim,
I disagree that anything posted here affected the recent movement. The NASDAQ has broken down past 2000 and everything is bleeding. NT, LU, MOT, UTSI. My portfolio took a bath. The communication sector in general has been getting destroyed lately.
IDCC has not helped itself. The company has not given anyone a reason to buy its stock in 1 1/2 months. The real breakdown occured yesterday.
29-Apr-04 16.71 16.88 15.67 15.75 644,300 15.75
28-Apr-04 16.98 17.33 16.65 16.65 367,700 16.65
27-Apr-04 17.53 17.80 17.00 17.09 235,900 17.09
Tuesday we hit $17.80 and today we hit $15.67 over a $2.00 per share swing on below average volume.
Avg Vol (3m): 857,454
NASDAQ had a 100 point decline from a high of 2053 to a low today of 1946.
29-Apr-04 1,987.48 1,998.50 1,946.10 1,958.78 23,710,700 1,958.78
28-Apr-04 2,026.44 2,026.44 1,985.54 1,989.54 20,374,200 1,989.54
27-Apr-04 2,040.53 2,053.57 2,027.64 2,032.53 19,716,100 2,032.53
Bottomline this has nothing at all to do with posting and everything to do with a technology sell off.
"If you don't like it, then you can sell."
Or people can execute their rights as shareholders and vote against the directors who are up.
Or people can put to a vote next ASM which will tie compensation to stock performance and not
arbitrary goals.
I really, really HATE the "if you don't like it SELL" mentality. People are losing hard earned money and they have a right to complain about the performance of this stock. Whether you agree or disagree with these opinions at least people should respect them and let shareholders express them.
These investors want to be heard and they are using this forem to do this.
So if you disagree state the reasons why and please stop telling shareholders who are suffering losses to sell and go away.
No joy in Techville.
When NASDAQ broke 2000 I knew it would be all down hill.
Everythings getting killed including IDCC.
I'm in the wait and see mode but I would like and expect these guys to deliver soon.
Licensing has slowed down to a crawl. No news in a bear market is always bad news.
I think we all need to be tolerant of each others opinions. To sit here and bleed money day in and day out for a month and a half stinks. To read where IDCC has hit 100% of its goals and will now reward its management team with free shares is like rubbing salt in our wounds.
I made a decision to sit tight until after May 10th but I can definitely relate to Alley, texb, Corp, broken80 and all other posters who do not appreciate management patting themselves on the back for a job well done when my portfolio has been slashed.
sjratty,
You need to establish a timetable. Again I wish to commend you on correctly estimating the time frame in the Nokia/Samsung arbitration. I don't remember any other poster besides you correctly targeting 18 months to 2 years. At this point in the game it makes no sense selling prior to the arbitration decision unless you think it will be bad.
My timetable is next March or 11 months from now. I've waited 4 1/2 years and I can wait another year. It is very frustrating but selling at $17 is not the smart move if you think settling with Nokia will take the stock past $35 or $40 a share.
One of the things that keep me here is what I like to call the RIMM SHOT.
Coined the phrase last December in RIMM.
23-Dec-03 58.50 69.93 58.30 69.61 58,375,400 69.61
22-Dec-03 45.29 46.72 45.01 46.10 4,482,600 46.10
Saw a nice RIMM SHOT yesterday in OSIP.
26-Apr-04 84.60 98.70 77.00 91.10 59,418,400 91.10
23-Apr-04 38.66 39.14 37.94 38.14 1,305,000 38.14
Basically, all investors here should wait until the story is played out with Nokia.
The bottom stock price for the year is $15.81.
22-Mar-04 16.70 16.80 15.81 15.95 1,205,400 15.95
On a valuation basis I feel it is at or near bottom value.
I think it would take a big event for IDCC to push down past $15.00. (Losing Nokia Arb/Losing LU suit) The market cap is now at $962 million and they have another $100 million in cash and no debt.
So you have a net of $860 million for 1000 patents and $100 million in profitable revenue stream. Whenever you have an equity with these assets priced low it can be a target for a buyout.
Plus you have $0 dollars (IMO) factored in from Nokia and Samsung (a potential $500 million dollar revenue stream from 2002 to 2006).
I believe Nokia and Samsung is now an arbitrage situation. The closer we get to Jan. the more the price of IDCC's stock should rise.
The likelyhood of this quarters revenues to be below last quarter is very slim.
We have already had Sony/Ericsson report a nice increase from last quarter.
RIMM had a huge quarter with a 37% increase from previous quarter.
"Revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2004 was $210.6 million, up 37% from $153.9 million in the previous quarter and up 141% from $87.5 million in the same quarter of last year."
HTC revenue will start this quarter.
"In fourth quarter 2003, we entered into a non-exclusive, worldwide, convenience-based, royalty-bearing patent license agreement with High Tech Computer Corp. (HTC) covering the sale of terminal units and infrastructure compliant with 2G and 2.5G IS-136/GSM/GPRS/EDGE and 3G WCDMA/cdma2000/TD-SCDMA
standards. Under this agreement, we will receive a royalty on each licensed product sold by HTC worldwide. HTC is obligated to make a royalty prepayment in first quarter 2004 and, once that prepayment is exhausted, will be obligated to pay additional royalties on sales of licensed products through the life of the licensed patents. We recognize the revenue associated with this agreement as sales of licensed products are reported. "
NEC reports Wednsday the 28th but we expect more revenue this quarter because of software problems in the 4th quarter that were repaired.
I'm expecting a very good quarter and played some June options because of this. I'm hoping we get back to trading in the $19 to $20 range.
You stole my line, LOL.
I'm also tired of the compensation issue.
The problem is with only 2 press releases in April we can either talk about the layoff release or the compensation release.
Maybe the company should put out press releases on new patents granted. Then at least we can really discuss topics we know nothing about.
OT: You have a spyware problem. Install adaware and it will fix it.
Hopefully LU will put some MO back into telcom and wireless.
Tech Stocks : Telecom
Lucent Posts Another Profit
By TSC Staff
4/20/2004 7:24 AM EDT
Telecom investors are seeing a bit of progress at Lucent (LU:NYSE - commentary - research).
On Tuesday the New Jersey maker of phone-network equipment posted second-quarter earnings that were in line with Wall Street estimates, marking its third straight profit after a long string of losses. The company also gingerly forecast a full-year profit.
For its second quarter ended March 31, Lucent reported net income of $68 million, or 2 cents a diluted share. These results compare with net income of $338 million, or 7 cents a share, in the first quarter of fiscal 2004, and a loss of $351 million, or 14 cents a share, in the year-ago quarter.
Wall Street had forecast a 2-cent profit on sales of $2.16 billion. Investors had expected to see a mixed report, balancing strength in wireless infrastructure sales with weakness in other businesses.
"We achieved our third straight quarter of profitability and continued to make progress on many of our key priorities this quarter," said CEO Patricia Russo. "Our Mobility business remained strong, highlighted by an agreement with Verizon Wireless to provide mobile networking equipment for its high-speed wireless data service. We increased our optical business by delivering next-generation solutions to customers around the world, and we announced five new customers for our Accelerate VoIP solutions. We also announced three new partnerships to enhance our next-generation networking portfolios and enterprise network security offerings."
Lucent said the latest quarter's gross margin was 43% of revenue, up from 41% for the first quarter. This quarter's gross margin included the favorable impact of product mix and continued cost reductions.
"At this point, we now expect annual revenues to increase on a percentage basis in the low single digits for the fiscal year," said finance chief Frank D'Amelio. "While we may still see some quarterly fluctuations, we continue to expect to report a profit for the year, excluding any additional impact from a revaluation of the warrants" issued to settle shareholder suits.
For the third quarter ending in June, analysts expect Lucent to swing to a 2-cent-a-share profit from the year-ago 7-cent loss. And reversing the recent trend, Wall Street actually expects a year-on-year sales gain, in the neighborhood of 10% to around $2.2 billion.
But as has long been the case with Lucent, it's not just the numbers that tell the story. Recently investors have grown increasingly concerned about other issues at the company, such as a probe of business practices at its Saudi operations and the firing of four high-ranking workers in China.
Meanwhile, after a hot start to 2004, Lucent shares have cooled as the much-discussed spike in telecom industry spending has failed to materialize.
On Monday, Lucent shares rose 12 cents to $4.33.
"or whatever it is others choose to think about me"
I think if you don't like Ronnies post you should just sell your shares and go away. LOL.
Just kidding of course.
My last post on this topic.
Basically this sentence pisses me off.
"This program represents another step in the ongoing development of InterDigital's business practices and corporate governance policies designed to position the Company for long-term growth and strengthen alignment with shareholder interests."
If they wanted to "strengthen alignment with shareholder interests." they would tie compensation to stock price performance.
This is about coming up with a method of for additional compensation period. Walks like a duck and quacks like a duck.
I don't like getting BS'd and that is what this release is about.
Secondly, I'll bet that 50% of this compensation pool will go to the top 5 people. Another issue that gets me going.
Lastly this smells very much like a work around because of last years option defeat. We closed the cookie jar lid last year with the options vote and they drilled a hole in the bottom using RSU's.
It really bothers me that people continue to reply "sell your shares" on a discussion board. If everyone who was told to sell their shares did there would be 3 people on this board and the stock would be in the low-teens.
So why are we talking so much about compensation?
Because the company hasn't given us anything else to talk about.
Fri, Apr 16 - 12:17pm ET - EDGAR Online
• InterDigital Repositions Organization to Sharpen Focus on Core Wireless Technology Opportunities
Mon, Apr 5, 2004
• InterDigital Realigns Compensation Structure for Continued Success
We have 2 press releases in April.
The first dealing with compensation for the top 100 people(yeah right).
The second is a layoff, hmmm maybe to pay for the compansation.
What we have here is a lot of very frustrated shareholders.
We wanted another major licence, we got a very expensive compenstation package. Human nature says that if we stay in the 17 range or below, people will keep bitching myself included.
My rants are not IDCC specific. I'm sick and tired of CEO's and COB's using companies stock as their own money printing machine.
Motley Fool
CEOs Still Raking It In
Monday April 19, 10:17 am ET
By Selena Maranjian
Has corporate America learned anything from Americans' outrage over CEO compensation excesses, fueled by the likes of erstwhile Tyco (NYSE: TYC - News) CEO Dennis Kozlowski? Not too much, it seems.
BusinessWeek has once more surveyed executives of major corporations, and the folks at United for a Fair Economy (www.ufenet.org) have used its data to calculate that the average CEO collected $155,769 per week, compared with the $517 earned weekly by the average production worker. This means CEOs took in $301 for every dollar earned by rank-and-file employees.
Are such executives really 301 times more valuable than average workers? It's hard to imagine that's the case with so many major corporations not exactly performing in stellar fashion. Sure, some CEOs, such as Berkshire Hathaway's (NYSE: BRK.A - News)(NYSE: BRK.B - News) Warren Buffett and eBay's (Nasdaq: EBAY - News) Meg Whitman, take home relatively little in relation to the return their firms deliver to shareholders. But then, as BusinessWeek pointed out, you have Larry Ellison of Oracle (Nasdaq: ORCL - News), who took in some $750 million in total pay in the three years from 2000 to 2003, while his shareholders lost 54%. And then there's Scott McNealy of Sun Microsystems (Nasdaq: SUNW - News), who took in $35 million in the same period while his shareholder return was -84%.
Has the picture been improving any over time? Well, yes and no. The high-water mark for this survey came in 2001, when CEOs raked in 531 times what average workers did. That dropped precipitously in 2002, to 282, but has clearly inched up a bit since then. (The wide spread is largely due to the swooning stock market, which took with it the value of many bigwigs' stock options.) In 2003, the average surveyed CEO earned $8.1 million in total pay, up 9% from 2002. Meanwhile, the average production worker's salary increased just 2%. Step back further and the situation is grimmer. In 1982, CEOs took in just 42 times what average workers did.
Believe it or not, average Americans are not the only ones concerned about this. Back in 2002, The Conference Board issued recommendations on improving corporate compensation and governance, featuring some thoughts from Warren Buffett himself. Buffett pointed out that compensation committees often act like lap dogs, rubber-stamping CEO requests for pay increases, as CEOs strive to keep up with each other.
What's needed? A little more backbone in the boardroom, for starters. If you're paying a CEO $5 million per year and he wants $6 million, can you really not find someone else who's talented and would be happy to do the job for $5 million, or perhaps even $2 million? Let's see a little competition for these plum posts.
"...business is business...." and performance is performance.
Maybe we shouldn't oust Roath but IDCC's management and board of directors should be compensated based on stock price not just because of time served. Seems like both Roath and Campagna were compensated very, very well in the past.
Future compensation should be based on future returns. How about granting options out of the money say $20 or $22 a share. That way they would be rewarded based on getting the stock price up instead of some arbitrary milestones that they set for themselves.
Ditto