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My 401k isn't doing well, as it is, are you kidding me, ugghh, not a fun week :(
at these prices, they better be buying back like crazy
ouch, hang in there, i haven't a clue to what i am doing, but i would rather be lucky than smart
yeah, i am i same boat, i loaded up several hundred more shares, when she dropped to 48 and analyst were calling this a minimum 60 share. felt sure, we would at least level off at 55. only good thing is my share avg is still in the 7.00's
Will Profits in the Airline Space Scale New Highs in 2016?
2:40 pm ET December 11, 2015 (Zacks) Print
Airline stocks will likely continue their bull run into 2016 as has been reinforced by the encouraging outlook provided by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) recently. The trade association now expects profits in the aviation industry to touch $36.3 billion in 2016 with a net profit margin of 5.1%.
IATA also projects profits of around $33 billion in 2015 with a net profit margin of 4.6%, marking an improvement from the previous guidance of $29.3 billion which was released in Jun 2015.
Impact on U.S. Airlines
Following the rosy profit outlook, stocks of the U.S. airlines industry had a bullish yesterday. Notably, Delta Air Lines Inc. DAL, United Continental Holdings UAL and Spirit Airlines SAVE rallied the most with a respective gain of 3.58%, 2.89% and 2.79%, in yesterday’s trading session.
Factors Justifying the Bullish View
Fuel Price Effect: Airline profits largely depend on fuel prices which form nearly 30% of operating expenses and are also the major variable component in the industry. The firm holds that oil prices will continue to fall this year with the average price hovering around $55 per barrel of Brent crude. Likewise, in 2016, price of Brent crude is expected to decline further to $51 per barrel, thereby driving earnings for the overall aviation industry.
Solid Travel Demand: The busy Labor Day holiday period (Sep 2–8) and the Thanksgiving rush (Nov 20–Dec 1) will certainly drive profits beyond 2015. Moreover, Christmas holidays and summer vacations will contribute to traffic. IATA projects 6.7% and 6.9% growth in air traffic in 2015 and 2016 with load factor or percentage of seats filled by passengers pegged at 80.7%.%. IATA also believes that 3.8 billion passengers will travel in 2016.
Improving Economic Scenario: An improvement in U.S. economic conditions and strong recovery in most European nations continue to boost profits for airline carriers. In the U.S., unemployment rate stands at 5% which is quite encouraging while the U.S. Department of Commerce reported in its “second” estimate that the economy grew at a pace of 2.1% in the third quarter, compared to the earlier projected growth rate of 1.5%. Likewise, global GDP growth is forecasted at 2.7% for 2016 compared with 2.5% in 2015.
Improved Carrier Efficiency: Increased fleet restructuring programs retiring older and less efficient aircraft and placing new aircraft orders are anticipated to enhance the performance level of the company by trimming fuel and operating costs, and rendering a comfortable flying experience. Moreover, most carriers are focused on augmentation of ancillary revenues by launching value-added services at affordable rates. For example, JetBlue Airways Corp. JBLU has initiated Mint service which is gaining considerable popularity. Recently, American Airlines Group Inc. AAL rolled out Premium Economy service for its international customers. These value-added services are expected to retain customers and also ancillary revenues.
Region-Wise Contribution
North America continues to dominate more than half of the aviation industry with an expected profit of nearly $19.4 billion and $19.2 billion for 2015 and 2016, respectively. IATA also believes that the airline companies in North America will earn the maximum profits of $21.44 per passenger in 2016 against other regions with a net profit margin of 9.5%. Also, capacity expansion by North American airlines is anticipated to increase from 3.7% in 2015 to 4.8% in 2016 based on U.S. economic growth.
The other regions, namely, Europe, Asia-Pacific and Middle East are expected to generate post-tax net profit of $6.9 billion, $5.8 billion and $1.4 billion, in 2015 with profit margin of 3.5%, 2.9% and 2.3%, respectively.
However, Latin America and Africa are expected to incur loss of $1.05 billion and $3.84 billion, respectively, in the same period. Such a gloomy outlook for Latin America is mainly attributable to economic crisis in Brazil, adverse currency movements, and soft commodity prices. Similarly, an unstable political scenario and stiff competition from other international carriers have led to the somber outlook for Africa.
Likewise, for 2016, the profit guidance outside North America which include Europe, Asia-Pacific, Middle East and Latin America are estimated to produce post-tax net profit of $8.5 billion, $6.6 billion, $1.7 billion and $0.4 billion, respectively, and profit margin of 4.3%, 3.2%, 2.6% and 1.1%, respectively. However, Africa is anticipated to incur a loss of $0.1 billion.
Concerns Remain
Despite the strong profit outlook set by the IATA, we believe that earnings at the aviation industry will be offset by headwinds like travel alert stemming out of random terror attacks, strong U.S. dollar and labor-related issues. These negatives resulted in a 13% decline in the NYSE ARCA Airline index through the first eleven months of 2015.
In addition, declining air fares due to capacity expansion may also impact the top line of airline companies, thereby affecting profits. As per data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, airfares in Jul 2015 (on a seasonally adjusted basis) decreased 5.6% from Jun 2015. This decline marked the sharpest monthly drop since Dec 1995. Further, airfares declined 3.1% in the month of August.
The Bottom Line
We expect carriers to continue demonstrating impressive bottom-line growth going forward as oil prices are unlikely to touch the highs witnessed in mid-2014 anytime soon. Moreover, a higher demand for travel on the back of an improving labor market and consolidation should further aid carriers.
bam here's the bottom, if your buying in, here's your chance
at this point its all going to "billable hours" instead of share holders
any ideas, on when this babe will hit bottom , so i can buy in some more. just went on them for 5th time, and leaving my premium status at RCCL :( AND BUILDING QUICKLY) been booking a year in advance to get the double points, have 5 done 2 more scheduled. can't wait for the diamond status, heard we get room credits just for being a share holder?
welcome ALL, information on the future of this stock will be welcome
hi, here to learn more about Norwegians cruise lines stock, i need to buy cause i want the 100 or more dollar room credit each and every cruise.
OK, going on a cruise tomorrow, i think that worked for us, once before, when i get back maybe i should sell some stock, so the price will jump, need something to change our luck
hahaha good one, and more accurate, my fault guys, i bought more fluff, 44.44, it was bound to drop, my bad.
well, PPS down 2.50 in a week, so far my experiment in day trading, not so much fun paid 44.44 but still hopeful may change the name from day trade to week trade. hahaha
no problem, i agree, just throwing the info out there, wasn't implying it would make a difference, but it is news, maybe some place new to go...maybe its like a "watched pot" this bitch won't boil till we ignore it
i got a lil fluff for 44.44, so i have 133 shares to practice my day trading with, normally i would say 5% to flip, but i think this has more upside, may try for 10%. its that age old question, do you try for 2 X 5% trades or 1 X 10%...
well, still early, heck improperly packaged pistachios are said to spontaneously combust and start fires, as well as shipping some chemicals even near other chemicals can cause a reaction resulting in heat and fire, hopefully they will find out more, in order to prevent it in the future. everything seems to be dangerous, illegal, or fattening. prayers to the families. in word on the DOJ dropping the collusion case
thanks, i got my day trade starter fund all set up and ready, only 100 shares, had another set to buy at 44.44 (for literally no reason except fun numbers) didn't get those last 33 shares, so, now i have to wait till they "settle" (3 days) before i can sell? i will start googling
i am on it now
thx
interesting how the PPS gets driven down just before the company can buy back, hmmmm
cause lord knows, it drops for no reason
well if the past has been any indication, this babe will pop way up for absolutely no reason. cause we know she moves on NO news, i am starting to think if a butterfly flaps its wings on the other side of the world. our stock moves
i am willing to give them (or anyone else) the 20% upside opportunity of a life time, and sacrifice my shares to them for a poultry 80.00 bucks :):):)
hey folks, new investor here, not a lot of current info on this, seems to be waiting on a hit, heard on rumor that this was finally getting close. did great on AAL, maybe i can bring a little of that good luck here. GLTA
how come, when we charge what the market will bear, its collusion, and when we match the low cost carriers, its predatory pricing. will they make up their minds
thanks slacker thats what i thought, guess i need a second opinion, from another tax guy before i take any profits. appreciate it
tax question, (my tax guy has been trying to get me to unload this stock forever, like from the beginning 2.15 PPS) so anyway question is, i was looking at taking some profit and dividing it up into different years, i made 50K and cashed out 120K(last year) to keep my total earnings below the 180K (higher tax bracket) but he said cash half this year and the other half next year, but thats 50K in earnings and 200K cashing out (not bragging, many have done way better, i just got in at the beginning) i am long, but don't wanna pop myself into the highest tax bracket, he said i would only pay the higher income tax on that portion over 180K not the whole amount. so i wouldn't pay higher tax on everything?
i feel the frustration, with the lack of progress on this stock, but even if i dumped and wanted to go somewhere else, i really haven't found anything with this kinda upside making it worth, starting over yet, its all speculation, but i still have a "feeling" about this stock, certainly more realistic, than a few, but even conservatively this has a lot of upside, just have to be patient for the powers that be, to quit "playing" with it, but the progress is already apparent.
i got a cruise planned nov 15th i believe, hope it will help, and i come home to a gift to open PPS
its like flight attendant tourettes, nation wide, bid (schedules) results for NOV. just came out, good or bad, we all spazz out, yeah santiago was fine, but i am glad to be back on HKG, thank you, thank you, thank you, scheduling Gods, what? wait? coach? really? oh well can't have everything. will just have to treat my coach psgr like first class. will be easier if the stock hits 50 this month
good to know, i just saw the old jump, plummet, and figured the day traders were taking advantage of the morning spike followed by the hard core drop
i see the day traders are back....
appears smooth,(integration) friday is the day for earnings i believe. but its earnings week, for a bunch of folks, even if we are not doing anywhere near what we want. we are doing loads better than most companies, and positioned better than just about anyone. airline and non airline alike. upside on our baby, is still great, so now its just a hurry up and wait
thanks for your support, (i bought these shares at around 2.50) so i am doing my part, and don't have much trouble staying happy, very happy. had 14K, paid off house, then 12K bought a condo, put some money in the bank, now i am down to 8866, just gonna remodel pool, do some traveling, and have fun at work. cause one way or another this baby boo, GOT PAID. so come on, any of y'all on my flights and i will treat you, all like the KINGS you are. this thang needs to go to 50-60 PPS. and we can plan the party
well, missed my personal target for the day of 44.44. but can't complain, it IS green, just saving that breakout for a better day, everybody ready for take off?
hopefully better after delta conference call over, i was hoping for 44.44 today, patient and doable, a little everyday.