Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
odd- I thought I was being negative for a very good reason, which is that the data are easy to analyze and therefore failure to release results right away means Leo is looking for a way to package not so good data.
Could this be wrong interpretation? of course.
But it is a more likely explanation than good news being packaged up for release. And I continue to believe that every minute we do not hear bad news more likely
very little data small trial
he oughta be able to say it went well
why do you think there is a delay?
chances of good news drop every minute no release
data release driven more by getting PR ducks in a row-either positive, or negative-than by complexity of data. Not that many numbers to crunch. Leo may want to say a couple of positive things at once- mention B-UP too, in a broader PR, or mix positive and negative if P fails.
Getting the message together will need more time than simply putting out the numbers, which he ought to be able to do right now.
Nice homonym. Can I write that? Can the words(board, bored) go to the same bathroom?
At least next week there will be something to talk about, for a change
Just hope good news about B-UP not squandered in an attempt to offset poor P results
so what's your prediction then for start of B p3 share price impact? My guess is up 10% and then back to prev values within a week
Well trodden ground here in terms of a debate on share price impact of already expected events: we will all have a chance to see how big the impact is, whenever Bp3 and Kp2 finally lurch forward
Brilacidin is a longstanding well publicized well followed story, an excellent adventure to be sure, but the exciting part of B is surely not p3 however promising that part of the story is.
It is expected. The drug has already shown its merit
Yes the dosing is different..but....
But what is of extreme interest are the next set of indications for B, OM, UP and even HS and then ophthalmic preps. Every time CTIX steps up and says those trials are moving forward means that B-OM must be going well in terms of side effects since CTIX already said it would put on hold all the other projects pnding OM getting off the ground. At a minimum we believe there is no big problem with the B-OM. At the other end of the expectations spectrum, we think that starting UP and bringing HS back into the picture and adding Sonis and adding Farraye is very promising.
Look- I will add another future B patient story to the board, I have put up several prior. mid 80's man somehow got MRSA sepsis, no one knows how, and several lumbar discs got infected too. No abscess but many weeks of Daptomycin after Vanco problems. Deemed better, finally, only to relapse with MRSA sepsis again with inflamed lumbar discs. Horrible pain to the point of crying-awful.
How nice would it be for this man to receive one dose of Brilacidin every two weeks for 6-8 and then repeat his blood cultures? As opposed to more and more Daptomycin?
B ought to be a good drug, eventually, and we have placed our bets on the company expecting its success, hard to know how big a drug it will be, but something successful certainly
The other anti-inflammatory applications for B are much less of a sure thing, and any hint that the promise might be realized is pretty damn important.
Wouldn't it be nice to get a surprise announcement today?
They put in place a timeline for next week so we will be waiting some chunk of time but c'mon CTIX shake it up and give the board some desperately needed good news
But if bad at least package it next week with positive developments- B-UP starting and meeting set for B-HS. I still think this is most likely scenario.
Pls don't package any bad P news with start of K ovarian p2 or start of B p3: nonevents, already expected....
There is a huge difference, for sure, between CART and Kevetrin, but we all hope they are synergistic, and it would be nice to find out ctix is making inroads in this direction. Maybe one day we will see such combo treatments, I certainly hope so.
They are applying for a grant for a trial, as will be many other biotech companies.
Why not simply proceed with the trial already!!?!
oh yeah- ovarian comes first).i If we (CTIX) had the money we would be doing the pancreatic CA trial too(but we will start in on B-HS first, now- I wonder why? Who knows.
But instead it is an application for a grant only
Thanks for making my point- we sit and wait....mAybe in the meantime immunotherapy renders K obsolete, and maybe not.
Why the B-HS statement are more important than anything to do with Prurisol ?? : once again the company is putting out a hint that B-OM is going well.
If they are willing to talk about going forward with B-UP and with B-HS what other reasonable conclusion is there? Sonis added to the team? Farraye added to the team?
Looks like Leo clearly anticipates good news with B-OM. With my negative comments about other stuff, why do I keep my shares? Because the Brilacidin story may well be BIG! As it unfolds. That is why. For starters.
current state of ctix: while we await data about the least of the company's products, there is a sense that blind means blind , when it comes to Prurisol, and that the company cannot possibly know good results from bad. Of course, suggestions that results are good -and that Leo has suggested such good results in a variety of ways- are met with assent. And suggestions to the contrary, that results might be bad, are met with derision.
All while maintaining that results cannot be known.
Ahem.
Next: a careful and well-reasoned assertion that it is hard to know if results can be interpreted ahead of time if there is a high rate of spontaneous clearance in patients with mild to moderate plaque psoriasis., since the placebo response might be 30%. The board goes wild with such news.
Huh?
When the actual rate of placebo clearance of lesions is maybe 12% acc to another study- and such info is carefully posted- there is no questioning of the 30% placebo prev post, and the difficulty in data interpretation, only widespread acclaim. By the way, I have only respect for these posts, despite the obv diff in 30 % v 12% placebo response, since these posts are out done out of a wish to inform and help.
In other word, nonsense and optimism prevail here, and opinion to the contrary be damned.
It matters not of course since we shall soon see actual data. But there you have it - a vast, or not so vast, collective angst, over the results over the least of the ctix products.
How about starting the pancreatic CA trial with Mayo instead of pushing forward with Hidradenitis? As Leo suggests in recent PR ? How about pushing forward WHAT REALLY COUNTS ! Sigh yes, I get it, pancreatic ca trial is very expensive and B-HS not so much....
You are a sophisticated message board member who is well-acquainted with the difference between a complaint and a question.
I am asking a question
I understand the terms
My question was whether anyone actually believes what they are saying, and if it has any basis in practice
I suppose then you take leo at his word?
I have already said that I believe CTIX knows the P results and the locking and freezing stuff is nonsense.
Has anyone here worked at small biotech firms? Would you dispute this? Is there any chance Leo does not know the results already- despite the official version.
It's always the weak selling, right? Into stronger hands?
Maybe because sellers have concluded that P is more likely than not to fail, and that they can sell now and buy back shares at half price.
If I had any guts i might do this. Still hope P succeeds
AML? Had a minute to look back to find out why AML vs other, first to be selected as a specific target and it is mysterious. First poster about Kevetrin- available on the website under presentations show the very strong results of Kevetrin vs cell line K562 but this is a CML line, not AML. In the 1/7/13 PR cited it says Bologna wanted to move forward with the trial as opposed to CTIX crowing about AML results
So yes to be clear , also: I am saying that I recalled it wrong and that what I thought was AML info was a CML cell line cited in the first papers, 2012 ACS and AACR
PR 1/7/2013 was about AML trial years before we hear about an intended ovarian CA trial.
Are we better off with ovarian CA trial? Sure looks that way- at least a bunch of ovarian CA pts have gotten the drug.
so why did they choose it? no time now to read over again but will do so when able, unless you can post first to refute, fine by me, they have been talking about AML for a very long time, right? long before ascendancy of ovarian ca?
rewriting history: many here seem content that the company has now announced that its anticancer drug Kevetrin has now only one focus, ovarian CA, in a phase 2 trial that not not yet started. The company just told us this clearly in the 10Q and many on the board are too happy to say that they knew it all along, that it was to be ovarian CA moving forward, while other tumors held their breath.
What happens if Kevetrin fails in its p2 for ovarian CA? Also- you prob noticed - the monotherapy arm for Kevetrin was again NOT mentioned, right? What if the quirks of biology are such that AML and renal CA are excellent responders but ovarian CA not as much. Will any other trials for Kevetrin ever move forward?
Kevetrin is why many investors have been here for years, and now that there is a drastic policy change, where are your voices? Preclinical data led them to focus on AML as a first choice, and they have been discussing renal CA with BI Deaconess Hosp for years too, and when these programs are put on hold, do you care?
Did you sign up for a phase 1 to select one target for 1 trial? This was never how Leo as explained it before.
Is AML out because the immunotherapy progress means new AML drugs will be CART drugs? Can K find a niche with immunotherapy, or not?
So let's say that immunotherapy takes out AML- we still have the solid tumors, right? Promise for ovarian, perhaps, in the lab, with Doxorubicin and Kevetrin? Of course there is promise, but if pancreatic cancer turns out to be the best application for Kevetrin 5-10 years from now, will we ever know?
I understand that what Menon saw however many years ago in the lab will evolve as goals for therapy- the initial data up on the ASCO screen in 2012 has to sort itself out somehow. Ovarian CA has emerged for now as the first one up in line, but that may not tun out to be the best development for patients or for shareholders.
I would prefer them to push the phase 2's relentlessly, as I felt they were doing until the 10Q statements.
For a small unknown company they are doing all kinds of exciting things- agreed
But the most exciting things to me are the K trials- or were the K trials, now that many are on hold
Ovarian CA is a fine choice, although as you recall the focus of CTIX for a long time was always AML, maybe renal next.
But that is not the point. The point is how the company approached the issue. Were there lots of discussions about using phase 1 to find one tumor for one trial?
Of course not
Crickets? I guess you do not have to work.
I have mentioned the 1/22 PR where the attempt to obtain funding for pancreatic CA trial with Mayo is mentioned. How about that?
Your argument then would be that were funding isecured and then CTIX ask Mayo clinic to just wait for 18-24 months, after the ovarian trial is done, and then start the pancreatic trial? After Leo says in the PR they want to proceed?
As for renal and AML- they would have already gone ahead with AML if there were funding so far as I have been able to understand, and Leo says renal with BI now on hold awaiting ovarian CA. To me this is a clear and straightforward clarification. We were thinking of moving forward with renal cell CA trial and now we are not
Some others on the board would have you believe that these trials are not on hold at all, and that I am off base here. What would you say to them?
Perhaps you should ask the CTIX CEO how many trials he planned to run at once- a little while ago, before he just announced to us that they are all on hold- except ovarian ca trial?
B-Up up, P down. My guess as to the next big PR from ctix
10Q says B-UP to start in May, which is VERY big news, and very positive
And given Leo's propensity to put good with bad, the bad will be P lack of success.
My "motive" in these posts? To make guesses, sometimes educated, about what is happening with the stock?. I am sometimes a cheerleader sometimes a critic. In other words, just like all the rest of you.
We have not heard, of course, it would be a major, major development to get the funding.
The guess of someone on the board at the time was that is was an application for a specific pancreatic CA grant, because the timing of the announcement fit the grant deadline. It was a good piece of homework that made sense but was never proven never announced but logical
Let's say you are right- I do not know.
Why tip your hand now to say that all of the other phase 2's will be put on hold if you can start them in 6 months? Waiting for ovarian ca trial result will take much longer than that.
the post you refer to makes my point not his, as the concluding sentence- I called it a refrain-in the examples he cites is ovarian ca trial will take precedence. They just did not use the phrase back burner or on hold.
Ovarian ca was already identified by ctix and Dana Farber as initial focus for phase 2. It wasn't like the FDA came up with the idea. The company's intentions to do other phase 2's now on back burner- not by FDA request at all I am sure but by money limits prob How well is immunotherapy doing against pancreatic CA? Not much success reported that I have seen.
The FDA is not telling CTIX and Mayo to sit on the sidelines while ovarian CA goes first.
Instead CTIX is telling us, the shareholders, that Mayo and pancreatic CA p2 trial will go nowhere while we wait for ovarian CA trial.
It could be a long wait folks.
Can it be any clearer- P trial failed ,because NO cash(P licensing) for pancreatic CA trial with Mayo, which the company said in a PR on 1/22 that it wanted to pursue.
CTIX is telling us without saying it- yet
reading post 147001 the 10 q we we see the refrain for renal ca and AML : we are interested we like it, but now focus will be on ovarian CA. How clear can it be? Did they use the word "shelved" or did they say"on hold"? No, but the intention is very clear.
And, oh yeah, what about the 1/22 PR where they say CTIX and Mayo have applied for a clinical grant for pancreatic CA, now not worthy of a mention in the 10Q
There was a strategy on the part of CTIX to move into phase 2's in many cancers, and now we will wait for ovarian p2 to play out. is this their best bet? Who knows how it will all turn out in the end?
But I feel very differently now about the company saying that other cancers will wait in the wings for the next 2 years, maybe, while ovarian ca holds the stage.
Oh yeah- can I paste where they say this- no, not exactly, but that is clearly what the statements imply
TIAB just read in the 10Q that the other cancer patients will wait while the ovarian CA trial runs its course. Is there some doubt about this?
I see what you mean- now that they have said the others are on hold, that has been the obvious strategy all along- even though we have been hearing about other cancers for a while now, and even though recently we were just waiting to get a grant for phase 2 with Mayo for pancreatic cancer K trial...
Remember? or was it obvious then, when we were reading about the clinical data behind the Mayo work, and the submission of the grant, it was so obvious that this was not really true and that ovarian would come first and the pancreatic cancer patients would just have to wait
Obviously. Of course, as you say
You gotta be kidding me....
I do not know if P will fail or not. I find the hints provided by Leo/CTIX suggest failure more likely than success, esp with new info about Kp2 trials now GONE while we wait for ovarian trial only.
I like plenty about the stock, glad to elaborate another day
I guess then, their previous strategy, you know, the one they announced to us, the, uh, shareholders, which was, this anti cancer compound K is moving forward on many fronts - renal AML pancreatic ovarian- is no longer the case. But this new strategy, our great drug is moving forward on one front, this was the way to go all along?
So, now that they are narrowing potential phase 2 trials, it is a good thing? Because it shows focus?
Talk about a glass half full.
I wonder why they have had the wrong strategy for so long then, when this is so clear?
Gee, I dunno, I guess my points were...the points I made. About everything GROUNDED while we wait for ovarian. Was this hard to understand?
Oh yeah- and thanks for the super advice, namely, if you have any doubts about anything, just sell why doncha, and shut up.
That is really helpful.
Wow. This makes me queasy. Does this make you queasy? So much for a torrent of p2's , moving K forward in the oncology world. Suddenly it is only: we are working on ovarian CA first, everything else is on hold. NO mention of Mayo/pancreatic CA, nothing- AML renal - on hold
Maybe all is well that ends well but there is obv a major problem with -funding? -efficacy that we do not know about?
Does not leave me with a good feeling at all.
It is my own belief that this also is a tell, a hint that P results not good, since that P partner money would help fund K p2 trials. Lots of questions here, answers not good in the short run- but that short run is at least a year(?), if next real catalyst is B-OM results.
I appreciate your long term perspective and agree that in the long run ctix will be a winner.
I am not saying how may or how few participants they need for a phase 2. That is what an epidemiologist does- you know, the kind of people that Menon has worked around for years and years.
I thought you were saying it was just fine if the results are ambiguous, no worry if trial has an inadequate sample size. Yes I understand endpoints.
I must have misunderstood the gist of your post and the post of MDPhD, which I took to suggest that a failure to get meaningful results out of the trial would be just fine
I imagine that Menon expects meaningful results, as do we shareholders, most of us , anyway, I would guess
I generally agree with your perspectives but this sounds too much like- oh not to worry, if CTIX did not enroll adequate numbers of patients in a trial to see a difference, when in fact the filed of epidemiology exists to avoid such errors. MDPhD- what about all of those epidemiology PhD's that CTIX could employ to get it right? Should we just allow excuses for the company if they report inadequate data? I realize your post suggests that such mistakes are all part of the process, and the banker agrees with you.
I think they are a biotech firm doing clinical trials and they could be expected to do better
if they have chosen insufficient numbers of patients for trial to demonstrate benefit, or lack of it, then that in itself is a failure- the simplest kind of error when statisticians and epidemiologists are easy to find to ensure such a mistake is not made