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Thanks Rruff, although IGTN current prices could be cheap if their dreams are close to true but certainly not the same risk/reward that it was.
sam
Rruff/Stuof:
I have been in stuof a good while. Seems like there are 2 issues which I am not good at evaluating.
1) What grade should mgmt be given? Probably between c and f.
2) What is the quality of their prospects? I don't know.
Hopefully in current environment things will improve. Just a question of how fast and how much?
Also what do you think about IGTN? A Dr. Jeckyll and Mr. Hyde outlook by investors or maybe short sellers being destroyed revealing investors always liked.
sam
Watchdog,
Even if you had a 100% history of being right and continuing to be right, those who are in including me are going to wait for bad things to be visible to us. For now we believe this is a profitable company.
Do you really believe at this stage you can change anybody's thinking?
sam
IGTN:
Sharecount from ihub site for igtn. I don't have an idea of the accurate number.
sam
igtn:Actually < than that. Maybe $500,000 net income on 440 million shares.
Do you agree?
sam
Ruff,
Question for you on vmzip board.
sam
You are absolutely right Phil. There are no cars sold.
sam
Ruff,
What is your latest thoughts on IGTN? If you went by this years earnings according to pr maybe .2 cent earnings.
sam
Repost clearer:
SYMD.ob versus VPHM:
A useful comparison I think because of revenue potential for SYMD versus what VPHM experiencing;
VPHM ---SYMD (estimated FDA approval 2006)
over 10M revenue/month July going over 12M/month on latest
price increase compared to SYMD estimated market $250m/yr
VPHM took on debt to purchase rights to their product + ongoing royalty payout-- versus SYMD may need partner to achieve revenue
57 m o/s fully diluted --versus SYMD 70 m o/s fully diluted and
guessing < 100m by time of cash flow positive
$1 billion current cap on VPHM
estimated $2 billion on
expected earnings and pe 25
Summary $2 billion market cap would be reasonable for symd if they start showing at some point post-approval significant growing revenues that make $250 million revenue look possible.
That would make share value > $20 and current price 35 cents.
Greatest risk is approval. I believe if you study this company you will believe there will be approval.
There is a message board on raging bull under old symbol chai. Not a very active board but some there have significant positions.
sam
SYMD.ob versus VPHM:
A useful comparison I think because of revenue potential for SYMD versus what VPHM experiencing;
VPHM SYMD
estimated FDA approval 2006
over 10M revenue/month July estimated 250 million/yr market
going over 12M/month on latest
price increase
took on debt to purchase rights may need partner to market
to their product + ongoing royalty
payout
57 m o/s fully diluted 70 m o/s fully diluted and
guessing < 100m by time of
cash flow positive
$1 billion current cap
estimated $2 billion on
expected earnings and pe 25
Summary $2 billion market cap would be reasonable for symd if they start assumed post-approval significant growing revenues that make $250 million revenue look possible.
That would make share value > $20 and current price 35 cents.
Greatest risk is approval. I believe if you study this company you will believe there will be approval.
There is a message board on raging bull under old symbol chai. Not a very active board but some there have significant positions.
sam
Also justwatching your analysis about slice of pie is incomplete.
Would you be happy if your slice of pie was reduced 10% on a pie 20% larger?
sam
Justwatching,
pr is clear 6 cents.
"Under NWAU shares outstanding this would equate to $0.06 EPS for the quarter ended June 30, 2005."
You may be right about that does not include the 1.5 million or about 20% increase in shares. 20% off 17 cents would be about 14 cents.
Press release said 183% increase in net income over previous qtr which I assume is 3 cent 1st qtr. 183% over 3 = 8 1/2 cents plus.
If we go with 14 cents 2nd quarter and about 2 cents 1st quarter adjusted = 16 cents 1st half
55 cents for 2nd half would be mind-boggling to reach 70-75. We would all be happy if 2nd half would be 40 cents.
sam
whai:
Also on this perhaps some people will decide competitors better now. Could be a huge winner from here or could go bust.
sam
Maddog,
What I wonder is from how I interpreted 2nd quarter as reported we went from 6-7 cents to 6 cents or 17 cents.
The looks of it looked like based on shares post-increase. If 17 cents is what I think annualized already puts you at 68 cents.
sam
I suggest as an excellent example to ponder CXTI closed today at $2.30+. Yesterday hit $3.30+.
I first bought it early this year at about 90 cents as it looked dramatically undervalued.
Then it just continued to drop. I added a little on the fall. An out of favor Chinese bulletin board stock. I added about a month to 6 weeks ago a small amount at bottom .51.
There was no telling when it would ever see light of day. Other people who were in were giving up and selling.
sam
Q made clear to me a potential that everybody well understood but me.
If Trudy ever decided to reverse split and play right the pr pump and dump game, there would be price spikes.
The only downside that would kill everything though is if Disney ended the game.
sam
Bobwins,
I believe too you have it wrong as the 2nd quarter earnings release suggests huge net income increase and smaller per share increase.
Also 17 cents under new structure and 6 cents under old on release.
If you are right, that would make one assume our number of shares would increase so we would have more shares than we thought we have of current common or what?
sam
I will accept being robbed by the company on the 8 million if they make $1.00+ in 2006 or anything close to.
Trust them, no. Will they become fully reporting soon? I say yes.
sam
I have not received yet eom
Justwatching,
Yes, it is a classic case of uncertainty and until the uncertainty is properly addressed ...
This is exactly the situation where either one can win big or lose big. If the new company makes over $1.00 next year, this is a big winner without question. Right now unbelief/uncertainty rules, but that could change fast.
sam
Right now the only accurate knock against company I see that is a known fact is there is a massive amount of confusion regarding share structure and how the revenue adds up,how amount of profits derived, number of cars sold and number of navicom units sold.
Lately the information coming out looks like maybe we will start getting the answers and the answers will be good.
Looks to me like fraud is not the case.
One can be wrong on any company.
sam
Justwatching,
The bottom line is to invest in this company one must invest in a company where you can't trust the top guys, at this time anyway.
Where they belong on the scale of ethics I don't know.
sam
No one can go by the theory that they are just continually too hopeful and lax in projections, a hazy soft fraud.
These guys are pure scamsters or they are probably close to meeting estimates.
sam
If this was a big lie, I don't think we will ever see an audit of this past quarter.
That is what we need, to see an audit.
sam
correction < 3 shares of old per one new
Bottom-line on one level is simple. Either the revenue report was the truth or was a lie.
If it was the truth, then 30 million revenue will be reached on an annualized basis more than likely at some point.
Trying to get at earnings from revenue is far too difficult at this point if one wants independent analysis.
Their statement of 183% increase in earnings I assume from quarter one means they are claiming 6 cents on latest o/s not 1st qtr o/s as they reported 3 cents on qtr one.
6 cents to 17 cents is good news as it means less than 3 shares of new for one of old.
sam
Mnfats,
It is hard to put mgmt in jail no doubt about that, but very obvious type fraud if they are way off on actual reported revenue.
You can't say $6 million in a press release and in audit say $3 million without the world trying to chase you down.
I guess they would be safe if they never audit this quarter. Still these guys if fraudalent I claim have a little IQ, why not put together better false figures that match better?
sam
Snow,
If we start with your calculation of 7 cents, then leaves 1 cent on 30 million for expenses including salaries.
Annualized would be $1.2 million for all that. One full-time accountant and one manager for each lot and at least one salary for corporate structure so $1.1 million (subtract 100K for miscellaneous)
$1.1 million for the 6 higher paid people + other employees.
sam
Mnfats,
Your post looks reasonable and maybe you are right, but the company provided a sales figure of cars and a dollar figure.
What kind of hypester/charlatan would put out figures that are self-evidently non-matcheable?
sam
Adam, I had no projections for 2nd qtr. Just going by press releases alone I sensed in every press release for the last couple months that 2nd qtr was not good.
Otherwise under the new structure going by mgmt estimates of $1.00+ in 2006 and latest release today leads to think under current structure 35 cents plus.
35 cents at 30 pe would be $10.50
sam
All evidence I saw made me think 2nd quarter was a big miss. Turned out it was not.
This makes me think where I said 10% chance of 10 fold roughly from yesterday price in 18 months or less should be 50% chance.
Comments?
sam
OT question for Rawnoc:
Do you have an opinion as to what percentage of pink sheets successfully move up to higher exchanges and also gain significantly in value along with the move up, not necessarily simultaneously?
sam
Otcbargains,
Don't know that stock but somebody was using the same principle.
sam
Frustration: I do that trick of 1 on the end
sam
This too points out how it would be nice if one was in the position that one could say Scott Miller was best friend for 20 years and knew his word was gold.
Diversify and watch like hawk.
sam
Well 10% chance that their estimate is right on target as a figure to play with.
If they have a shortfall but still strong growth, still okay and there is a chance of that too.
If the estimate is way off but there is mild growth over time could be a modest keeper.
This lower price may be a reasonable balance point.
If one had bought this at $5 theoretically, one would sure as hell be sweating that management was everything they hoped.
sam
Jaime what if only 1 chance in 10 for tenner and 7 chances out of 10 say at .75 old shares.
sam
Snow,
The only thing that will make NWAU look attractive is if it is in the early innings of a strong growth curve. Right now the picture is cloudy.
If the earnings estimates for this company were rooted in honesty, this company is a good investment at current prices as probably the growth will be there.
If 2006 earnings estimates are on target, this is 10 folder from here possibly at end of 2006 even after the huge share increase.
At this price, there is a potential huge upside but of a very doubtful nature because management right now looks iffy.
If management has a little honesty, the floor may be well above zero as they won't go bankrupt if this is a record month in my opinion. Also they claimed for 1st qtr 3 cents profit pre-share expansion.
I consider this stock to priced exactly as it should be right now. Expectations are now properly low so the chance of company outperforming from here about equals I think the chance of underperforming from here.
sam
whai opinion:
Best way to play is wait for news and then still probably a chance to buy at cheap price if news is good.
sam
ASPN guesses:
Bobwins can probably better paint a picture.
I was studying press release compared to what is shown on ASPN board preface.
My impression is these wells are a little below average.
24 wells last 4 1/2 years and if 7 this year at below average would add 20-25 percent to production and with older wells with some kind of decline make net increase of production for year of 15-20% as a guess.
With strong prices and no credits as assumption, I would suggest about 9 cents per quarter since 11 cents/7 cents for last qtr depending on tax status.
sam