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Repetitive. Yes I am, I suppose.
It is a bit funny, though.
People post all these supposed big catalysts and insist on them Just try to remember, the big K paper publication catalyst, as an example.
I write that there are NO catalysts coming for months.
Then Leo sends a letter to us saying basically, there are no catalysts coming for many months.
And that puts me in the wrong, somehow?
I really am trying
I really am
Let me see: actual new science results are due(scroll up, and read, it is that easy, isn't it? I mean I know how to scroll. And read.) for BUP in 1H 2017
OK then: more of September then October and November and December and then it is January and February(don't forget the r after the b....) March And April and May and June
I think new science data within 9 months is what is promised.
UP and p2b and B OM interim. Within 9 months. Perhaps in 8, if we are very lucky.
Ok, there it is. You have been able to think along with me as I type.
Where did I go wrong?
most important points are so obvious that shareholders benefit from hearing them in a letter?
CTIX shareholders, we are busy doing our jobs?
And a shout out to this pharma, and that one too?
I suppose that when you have nothing substantive to tell your shareholders for 9 months-
I mean, if you have no news then you can tell people that news will be forthcoming
the share price deserves to be higher, prob, but it isn't.
In the short term-months-there is no way for the stock to climb because there is no new science to support a rise. Check back in 9 months
wanna be refs- yeesh, these are the worst ceo pr's.
shouts out to other pharma companies for deals ?
sigh.
warning/spoiler: fi you believe share price means nothing in a young biotech like ctix, read no further
For a while I wondered if the share price would be over 2 in 2016. Now the big question is whether it can hold 1. The same will be true over a very long winter here- how low until news about P? Slow runup for late spring results?
the company announces what we have already known.
No catalysts whatsoever in sight for at least 6 months, probably 9 months.
The only question is how low the share price will drift in the meantime.
But don't write about this, it's biotech, and only the long term counts, even as ctix goes lower, and lower- that is how many here see it.
I do care though.
I would like to buy more shares, and I wonder if I can get them for a dollar
Closing statements at Friday conference:
In conclusion, I would urge you to check back in 8 or 9 months, maybe June when we hope to present Prurisol 2B data. Then we can talk, OK? We used to talk about Kevetrin and a lot of types of cancer and our affiliations with Dana Farber and Mayo and other institutions, but now we do not talk about that stuff. We said the Kevetrin trial was going to start, but we have said that over and over, and it still has not started, so just keep the faith, and maybe one day it really will start. But don't hold your breath on that one. Also, don't expect any news about our cellulitis phase 3 trial for Brilacidin either- we found a spot for it in the back of the closet, where it is collecting dust. Our favorite topics are now memories we hope to revive in a year , maybe. Maybe, that is the key word, since Prurisol looked good for a small number of patients, so pencil us in for news in June.
How's that for a rousing sendoff?
Bertolino 2003-7
4 yr as head of a hair transplant center??!!?
Huh?
$2- we will not see it until next summer. Holding on for q2 P 2b results.....yawn(Oh yeah, it's biotech and yawning is encouraged , it's the norm)
drugs like humira remicaid etc take up a large portion of the nation's health care costs because they work and because they treat serious problems. Do patients with RA and Crohns etc want to be on them? No they would gladly take an alterntive with less hassle and fewer side effects. But they often have no choice.
As Prurisol trial now unfolds it is not directed at such patients. Those on biologics have severe disease and or significant arthritis. Note that we have heard nothing about the treatment of psoriatic arthritis with P(yes I have read the constant IL-20 posts on this site- will believe P treats it when I see it- not mentioned at all by ctix)
No I did not recall the non compliance thing god forbid they failed to check-
of course cannot have that allele- we have been over this before
REQUIRED CRITICAL testing excludes these patients for potential hypersensitivity
of course agree with you as far as potential, we just do not know
it is one of the greatest stories in medicine-
it will not likely be the story with K since p53 role in cancer so complicated, not simple to have a single agent have so much impact. such single gene target success very rare.
No there won't be many catalysts in fact there may well be none!
definite B-OM news? not at all
definite B-up news ? not at all
start of Kp2- no bounce
those holding their breath for a K paper- yawn
case by case pr now out of fashion, remember? Bertolino just announced it
after the disappearing spleen pr- I doubt case by case info for Kp2 ovarian
A cancer trial cannot be that short, unless the patients do not survive long. But that would not be the hoped for outcome.
Just no way to run such a trial quickly
it is the short term strategic focus as they try to raise money for other trials- as Bertolino just said
so you would submit it is no more important now than before? Of course its importance has changed
How things change.
For many owners and watchers of ctix, prurisol was sort of an afterthought, let's say for a couple of years at least, as the focus was clearly on K and B. This is of course not true for all investors, but for most or many I would wager.
Now P2B is the big focus of the company, as they hope to leverage a positive trial to help fund further trials. New CEO with a lot of dermatology background is brought on too
From back burner to focal point!
Now the stakes are very high indeed for 2b, with results expected in less than a year.
Will we hear anything about B-OM and B-UP before then? If not, then that means no important news for almost a year. If not, no way to get share price above 2 until 2017 q2 P2b rseults
And for some reason I am still obsessed with the location of the B-UP trial. Slovenia? Belgium? New Zealand?
Papua New Guinea?
At this point in lack of news cycle I would like to be on the mailing list for emails Leo has issued that have been cancelled/rejected by Bertolino.
Something. Anything. Update maybe?
Enrollment picking up for B-OM as new sites are added and interim results expected in October?? Please, say anything.
the only drug they have that could be ready sooner rather than later , B for cellulitis, has no funding for phase 3. Maybe Prurisol is next best bet and yet trial showing benefit involved very few patients and as you know awaits a 2B.
I worry along with you about the glacial pace of K and the failure to ramp up dosing. So they increased the dose steadily, but never shortened the dosing intervals. If they release interim data in 18 months, then the time frame for K is more like 3(more trials) to 5 (real use)years IF there are excellent interim data.
yes just what I have been saying
distal to the splenic flexure ignores a lot of the colon, right?
Obv if you have bad disease a foam enema ain't enough
like I said
I never have, no- never did any radiology in med school
Enema treatment NOT the standard for generalized UC
Lots of drugs in the Humira category are for bad UC.
The foam can only go up so far, right? Which is why they are targeting proctitis.
I am not confused about UC.
I just wanted to be sure that the board grasped that the OM rinse and the UP enema address only the very beginning and the very end of the GI tract and that Crohn's and UC are not easy targets
And that unless CTIX plans to treat IBD with IV Brilacidin- and who the heck knows, maybe one day they might- there is no formulation of Brilacidin to get at the entire gut
I understand that this is pretty obvious.
This is of course the EXACT OPPOSITE of what Bertolino just stated.
Bertolino said nothing whatsoever new about K.
he said what we have all known all along: phase one only, safety data established, very short half life, new dosing regimens to come. No one here has ever credibly suggested there was meaningful efficacy data-
of course we all wish they might have dosed it more aggressively at some point in time, but that will come
It is not a negative point in any way or shape or form
It is what it is
Cellulitis plus UC trial- yes it would be helpful, however weird it sounds
I am simply making the point that the diseases CTIX hopes B may be helpful for- IBD generally, is very different than distal ulcerative colitis in terms of a treatment strategy. I am assuming that everyone reading here realizes that a foam enema will NOT help Crohn's disease( whole gut) and UC generally(entire colon)
I know, nothing could be more obvious, but CTIX has no preparation, currently, to address IBD generally, unless they want to give IV Brilacidin for those diseases.
Which they have not done, to my knowledge
cannot follow your point
I reread it, and?
The board realizes that there is no Brilacidin generalized UC drug, right? They are trying an enema for proctitis.
Maybe one day they can swing a trial for UC patients with cellulitis, to see if given single dose IV could help both problems. What are the odds of that???
So if UP works and then a real trial works then they can start to make a preparation that will impact gut only.
Have they already tried B on an animal model of IV Brilacidin? Not that I have heard. How to compare the side effects of an immune modulator(Humira etc) with B?
Don't hold your breath for this data.....
But it's biotech, right? We can think in years, OK, reasonable then.
maybe you should ask the same question of the many other posts which are of course opinions? An entire world always saying IMO IMO IMO boring
I think many people would say that expression of opinion is pretty easy to spot, since the poster is expressing an opinion
as opposed to ,say, quoting an article regarding 25% response rate to enema alone sans medication for UP
IMO it is redundant to include IMO.
I would like to think I could post the opinions of others, but I am just not so empathetic
IMO
Very helpful for you to take the trouble to look up placebo response rate of about 25%- thanks
You are bound to be right- I mean, if Prurisol looks good in its trial and K looks good and Brilacidin did well in phase 2 then the share price does up. Right? What could be simpler or more obvious?
I must be a real dope to think that the company could get good news only to see the share price continue to slide.....
Not a problem- when the news comes out about B-UP POC(!!) we can all see the result.
I say little or no benefit to share price, and you believe otherwise.
I say NO relevance to partnership because Leo will wait for a REAL ACTUAL trial and will never deal B-UP prior, and you believe otherwise
I say wait for a REAL ACTUAL comparison trial to expect any boost, and you say otherwise
Well- we will all stay tuned
This recent example will have no bearing on CTIX and B-UP.
re-read leo's thoughts as he discusses the potential very large market for inflammatory bowel diseases. He will not sell out based on prelim results
He will be sure to follow up on any positive study with a REAL study, and partnership discussions will be based on such a trial and not on current proof of concept.
And do we know- I do not yet- what the response is to placebo enemas for distal UC? How many patients will it take to be meaningful?
Here is another way to think about B-UP
Leo has already said they he thinks "GI diseases" may be a giant opportunity for CTIX, very lucrative , yadda yadda
Will he sell to big pharma without a controlled study demonstrating real benefit?
Not a chance, if he thinks it will be a big big deal.
He will try to maximize profit.
that fact alone is enough to tell us that speculating about the value of the POC study is a waste of time
If results are good , the next trial will help determine value
B-UP will have ZERO impact as a 2016 catalyst therefore
Leo tells me 10 of 16 pts proved on sigmoidoscopy during the first ever human study of Brilacidin foam enema for UC.
Now I am supposed to pay him how much more for CTIX?
Hard to add up.
Nothing will happen until there is meaningful data for B-Up, and this first study will have little meaning
If there is a follow up study warranted by this first proof of concept then maybe there will be actual value added
At some future point