Conrad

I don't know anything about these AIM schemes you guys are talking about so take this with a grain of salt.

I call it the gortex method cause it is by the seat of my pants.

I bought 100 at 100
and immediately entered Two GTC orders for 115 and 85

plus or minus 15%

as I traded through the sequence I tried to hold either 5000 in cash or 5000 in stock. At one point I took 5000 out of the account.

In the end I had
44 shares of stock worth 4400 and 30710 in cash.

I made 6 trades and never held less than 4995 in cash.
My broker would have charged me a fortune for these odd lots so lets figure 250 per trade = 1500

Thats 4400 + 30710 - 1500

ending balance = 32610 plus interest which I never computed.

Figuring this all out has been a great lesson to me. I realize how totally unreal this is but if I started with even a 10% plus or minus. I still would have done quite well.

If you ever hear of a stock that trades in such a wonderful channel please let me know.

Ergo Sum

Tom

"System". I meant AIM.

I have a pretty good idea about how the IW might act. I follow RSI and it works in much the same way. Overbought and Oversold are relative statements which can conflict in different time frames. They are just tools. They help inform. I like they way you are using it. I will follow along.

Thanks
Ergo Sum

Tom

I've been reading all about the Idiot wave this morning. As I feel I am probably a big componet of that I like it very much.

Sorry if I step on toes and keep taking one step foward and two steps back but I am trying to learn.

Here is what I think so far.

In a volitale flat trending market this system looks great.

In an uptrending market this system will work provided it makes the necessary adjustments.

In a down trending market this system is going to get killed unless you are smart enough to get out or flip the buys and sells. Go short.

Is that right so far?

Ergo Sum

March Madness

Little BYBI would be my pick, but I don't live in TENN. So I can't say I have eaten the product.

The stock jumped in Jan due to Tricon agreement. Insiders are buyers but at much lower levels. They own 25%. Institutions do not own which I like. PE is high 29.

Chart seems to have support around 5.4 or so. Your %R is about 36. There is a gap below which may be worrisome.

A good cheap hamburger is hard to find. Even my kids don't like the food at McDs anymore.

Just a thought
Ergo Sum

Hi Tom

Mostly I stutter and stumble, if I help even I will be surprised.

I am still trying to catch up, reading around. Just found the SI thread today.

Gotta go shovel snow.

Ergo Sum

KP.
It is what they called the Pilsbury Doughboy when he was little

If you light the candle from both ends and spend all weekend studying by the end of the weekend what ever is left of the candle will most likely be a doji.

I like to think about it as the door between two kids. One is pushing from one side the other is pushing from the other. The door doesn't move.

It suggest that all the buyers and all the seller have agreed on a price at this point and often that is a sign that a change of direction is about to happen.

A little more weight behind either side of the door will move the door.

With boy-girl twins Rule number one in this house has always been, "Don't fight with doors." Because someone is going to get hurt.

Maybe that helps.

Ergo Sum.

you could start here

http://www.litwick.com/terms.html#Special

or http://www.equis.com/free/taaz/candlesticks.html

or maybe http://www.stocktrendwizard.com/index.htm

just a thought

Ergo Sum

Some one the other day was talking about the book
"Technical Analysis from A to Z" This book is online, here is the entry for William's%R

http://www.equis.com/free/taaz/williamspercr.html


and another for the Zig Zag

http://www.equis.com/free/taaz/zigzag.html

Tom thanks

My tendency is to dollar cost average into things like this starting with an initial purchase of maybe 300 shares. If I understand your method here I would buy more like 600 shares with enough cash reserved to buy another 400.

I can understand the 5% Portfolio number, but I don't understand how you got the $7.30 buy or the $10.20 sell.

I have just in the last few days begun thinking about this purchase. I looked at EWJ and JOF. I picked the EWJ because (dare I say it) I thought it had less ....risk.

Except for some monies I trade with I don't allow myself to buy a stock in the first few days after I think I should. I am just too impulsive to make that work. Besides this is my 14 year old daughter's money, not mine.

Thanks for the help.
Ergo Sum

Tom
Well I have been doing some reading, but right now you guys are mostly speaking in tongues that I don't understand yet. Right now I want to buy EWJ. It costs like 8.65 right now. I could handle 1000 shares.
Can you give me a simple version of how that would be done using the AIM strategy.
Thanks
Ergo Sum

OT Matthew,

My mother's parents were Scots. And I am a Ferguson, ergo sum is just a play on that.
Here in Denver we got your former superstar John Spencer. Didn't the Rangers just lose Reyna, too bad. I'm a big soccer fan.
I noticed there are a bunch of Dutch people posting here so maybe we better not discuss the World Cup.

Ergo Sum

Conrad,

Sorry to start by disagreeing but:

At some point in time the fundamentals of ENRON were such that the company was beyond salvation. According to the Risk Pyramid it would have been a perfect time to invest in ENRON at the very moment it became known that it could not be saved: The high Risk would certainly guarantee high profits...according to the Risk Prophets.

There are at least two offers to buy this company rught now. People who are buying at maybe 10 cents on the dollar. Very smart people if you ask me.

No investment is with out risk. Goverment bonds probably have the least risk, but if the currency gets devalued you will lose money. Stocks by there nature are more risky.

Ergo Sum

Tom

Thanks for the nice welcome. Can't say I know much about AIM although I did do some reading a while ago. I liked the idea.
I have recently begun using regression channels, RSI and MACD in my charts and I like them a lot. They produce fairly clear areas where stocks should and perhaps will change directions. They don't always work but by using stops I find you can protect yourself from serious mistakes.
At the moment I am applying this to more of my longer term holdings and trying to use it as a discipline to help me trade around those positions.
I try to do a certain amount of FA along the way, but I am finding it more and more difficult to get good information. Perhaps the recent scandals will help make that information more reliable.
I'll try and catch up on these AIM ideas over the next few weeks.

Hope all is well
Ergo Sum

JSL

Good move.
When I look at my charts right now I see a real turning point. We are up off the Sept lows, trying to break out of a three year slide and trying to re-enter a five year channel to the upside. I don't see interest rates going down from here, and therefore I don't see the bond market going up from here. Not that I know what any of this means.
I have been raising cash, Selling some old shares of FRE and GE, and am waiting for some confirmation. I hear INTC has an update on March 7th. I will wait until I have some idea of where they stand.
In the mean time I have been paper trading the NDX, and doing a little research into BEC. Watching MSFT to see if it might run back to 70 here or slide back below 58. Oh and keeping one eye on Japan.
The only stock I bought in the last year I think was SAFM, they make chickens. Got about 60% on that one. It kept going up after I sold but I don't care about that anymore.

Ergo Sum

Florida?

My parents took me there one time when I was about 6. I got a tooth ache and had to have a tooth pulled. They gave me ether, it was sickening.

We went to Clearwater to see my grand parents. All I remember is they never left the house. One time we went to the beach but even after you got to the water you had to walk another mile just to get your knees wet.

I went back one time over spring break. I got so sunburn that I couldn't walk for three days. We hitch hiked from Miami to Sarasota. Got picked up by a Truck Driver who kept falling asleep and asking me questions like. "You ain't no hippie are ya? Cause I don't like hippies." Then he'd nod off and I would have to steer, He'd wake up and say. "Your buddy there he looks like a hippie. I ain't given no ride to no hippie you know."

Ain't been back since.

Because they weren't dumb enough to do the shooting!?

Well that's one way.

I shoveled twice on Friday

Well did you shovel the snow?

JSL

ATM machine, very funny and true. I did that for years, bought a house, bought a car went on vacations. I always felt terrible taking that money out of the market, but you know what, now I look back and think it would all be gone if I hadn't.
I am one of those people who mostly owns things like GE, Fre, Intc, the RBOCs etc. Whenever they go up and split I sell some shares and get my money back. I made enough money on INTC between 96 and now not to really care what the stock does now.
But I like this idea about buying and selling around positions. I own a bunch of SBC and for quite awhile now it has been moving between about 35 and 45, and generally not going anywhere. This makes me think that I should start trading it around those numbers. I did sell some back when it was in the 50s, and I hacve been selling calls but I never have just out right bought some.
My tendancy has always been to go out and buy something else, to diversify. But I have the diversity now and while I am still looking into finding my favorate 15% growers, I think this might very well be a better idea.


Ergo Sum

JSL

I don't know much about AIM but why not just use stop loss orders. Take smaller losses and if you keep getting buy signals buy back lower. Or conversly instead of selling use stop orders to follow a stock up.

Just a thought.
Ergo Sum

Just for the record. I had trouble getting this to format. Sorry

Three Months Ended Fiscal Year Ended
--------------------- ---------------------
Dec. 28, Dec. 29, Dec. 28, Dec. 29,
2001 2000 2001 2000
--------- --------- --------- ---------
(unaudited)
Net revenue $ 1,461 $ 12,363 $ 35,590 $ 16,180
Cost of sales 1,450 7,156 48,694 9,461
--------- --------- --------- ---------
Gross margin 11 5,207 (13,104) 6,719
Operating expenses
Research and
development 16,251 17,766 67,639 61,415
In-process research
and development -- -- 13,600 --
Selling, general
and administrative8,835 8,561 35,460 27,045
Amortization of
deferred charges
and intangible assets 21,608 2,986 34,120 10,416
Amortization of
stock compensation 5,131 5,949 20,954 13,056
--------- --------- --------- ---------
Total operating
expenses 51,825 35,262 171,773 111,932
--------- --------- --------- ---------
Operating loss (51,814) (30,055) (184,877) (105,213)
Interest and other,
net 2,106 3,814 13,648 7,508
--------- --------- --------- ---------
Loss before provision
for income taxes (49,708) (26,241) (171,229) (97,705)
Provision for
income taxes -- -- 22 --
--------- --------- --------- ---------
Net loss $ (49,708) $ (26,241) $(171,251) $ (97,705)
========= ========= ========= =========

Net loss per share--
basic and diluted
$ (0.38) $ (0.30) $ (1.33) $ (2.18)

Weighted average
shares outstanding--
basic and diluted
130,874 86,742 129,002 44,741

It's been a while since......

I find myself wondering here if it is just the "Moxi" or what, but this whole sector just seemed to wake up. And the real question is who is going to win this battle?

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/01/07/technology/ebusiness/07GADG.html

Wink was up like 30% just today.

Anyone else care to comment?

Ergo sum

I saw that thanks. But will wait now as your earnings preview and my own seem to be in conflict. Will see what the report says and revisit.
Be well

Thanks for the input.

jenna

wonder if you might look at ACN earnings on Weds rumer they will beat.

Be well
Ergo Sum

ACTV Awarded Three Key Digital Television Patents
May 08, 2001 07:32:00 AM ET

Coverage Extended to ACTV's Core Technology for Eliminating Video Switching Delay

NEW YORK, May 8 /PRNewswire/ -- ACTV, Inc. IATV announced today that it has been awarded three U.S. patents covering the problem of video switching delay between digital video signals, regardless of whether such signals are selected at the headend, the digital set-top box, or on storage devices such as servers or DVDs. The patents have important implications for a range of digital and interactive television applications, particularly customized digital television video content and targeted advertising.

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/ticker/article.asp?Symbol=US:IATV&Feed=PR&Date=20010508&...

Wireless


http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?column=Telecom+Report&siteid=mktw

Chambers and others


http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010504/n04412935.html

Hi Greg

Your doing a good job. Here's a snippet from the NYTimes.


``They are about people saying one thing and doing another,'' he says. ``Today, we have consumer confidence dropping, yet people are spending as robustly as they were a year ago. Consumer confidence is simply a reflection of what the mass media are telling people. It's a case of the media telling people what is going on, rather than what people are actually experiencing.''

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/business/business-stocks-week-.html

Have fun
Ergo Sum

Good post papa

DISH I like that company a lot. I live just south of Denver and most of these communications companies have a shop or two here. RTHM is just a stones throw from my house.

DSL As I see it the demand for DSL just isn't very high. I spend a good deal of time on the net, but most of the people I know don't. I have a DSL line. When I got it installed they told me I was the only person in my neighborhood who wanted it and one of their first customers. I had many problems at first and it took many hours on the phone and four or five trips out here by techs to finally get the thing hooked up reliably. The installation was free and they gave me the modem. Not a very profitable venture if you ask me. Northpoint, I think went belly up because the costs were high and the demand was low and the plan was bad. Check out RCNC better run, better plan still going.

Wireless. All this hype about wireless in the last few years sent companies like Iradium down the tubes. The bottom line here is that VOD has too many customers who use their wireless phones simply for emergencies. The rest of the time the phone sits in a drawer or a glove compartment. Last year in Europe they auctioned off a huge spectrum at an enormous price and now there is talk about the governments giving the money back to help the companies who are now deeply in debt. And along with this expence problem is security problem about parts of the spectrum used by the military. Not that I understand all this but it seems the rollout of the so called 3G network in Europe last year was brought to a standstill over this military issue.

Broadband. As you suggest the problem here is still the last mile. I believe that problem will slowly get solved and that in the mean time we will use various services from different companies. I am following that story trying to figure out how it will be played out. I just find it interesting.

The FED. I don't pretend that I understand how these people work but I would say this if the economy turns around here in the next few qtrs then I think they have done an amazing job. All this doom and gloom, when I graduated from college the unemployment rate was around 15% (1974)so 4.5% looks pretty good to me. In June of 0f 99 at the time of the first rate cut the dow was around 11000, the dow is now at 10951. Just because I'mgonnagetrichfast.com went out of business really doesn't matter to me.

F2 if you get me a teeshirt I'll wear the logo too.

Big Telcos are doing fine. Are you going to give up your phone service soon? The Bush boys are trying to help at the FCC and the Legislature is also. I'm just following the story.
Don't know much about golfbags but I do have a set of Ben Hogen Irons from the 1950 which were my Dads. He was a great golfer. Held a record 63 at the local GC in NJ.
Missed the move in WINK but had RCNC and TMWD.
Good Luck

Qwest offers VDSL services in Denver area
May 02, 2001 2:38:00 PM ET


DENVER, May 2 (Reuters) - Voice and data services company Qwest Communications International Inc. (Q) started offering television services over ordinary telephone wires in Denver, expanding beyond a test market in Phoenix.

Qwest, a provider of local telephone service in 14 states, uses VDSL (very high-speed digital subscriber line) technology to turn traditional telephone lines into high-speed pipes able to transmit television, data and voice services. Equipment maker Next Level Communications Inc. (NXTV) provides the VDSL technology.

Attempt at U.S. House broadband bill hits bump
May 01, 2001 5:11:00 PM ET


By Jeremy Pelofsky

WASHINGTON, May 1 (Reuters) - Congressional efforts to give local telephone companies faster access to the long-distance data market hit a bump in the road Tuesday when a key lawmaker criticized the legislation and sought review by his committee.

U.S. House of Representatives Judiciary Committee Chairman James Sensenbrenner asked Speaker Dennis Hastert to refer the bill to his panel after the Commerce Committee finishes with the legislation, a move that could delay or even kill the measure.

The 1996 Telecommunications Act barred local phone companies like Verizon Communications (VZ) from offering long-distance voice and data service until they pass a 14-point checklist proving their local networks are open to competitors like AT&T Corp. (T)

Rep. Billy Tauzin, Republican chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, and the ranking Democrat Rep. John Dingell have proposed a bill that would allow the local operators into data services without being subject to the checklist.

Verizon, the nation's biggest local phone carrier, has argued the measure would hasten deployment of high-speed Internet service while AT&T, the nation's biggest long-distance carrier, has said it would undermine competition.

The measure "now seeks to radically rewrite - indeed eliminate - that balance" allowing local carriers into the long-distance market and at the same time opening their local networks, Sensenbrenner said in a letter to Hastert.

"The preservation of a competitive market, complete procedural fairness, and common sense require that the Committee on the Judiciary - the committee charged with competition matters - receive a sequential referral," Sensenbrenner said.

The referral would allow the panel to hold hearings on the legislation as well as amend it, a process that could radically alter the purpose of the bill. It would also take time.

"It's another curve in the road that we will have to negotiate but the Energy and Commerce Committee is clearly driving this legislation and we don't intend to give up the wheel," said Ken Johnson, Tauzin's spokesman.

"The bill pure and simple is about telecommunications policy and nothing in it and absolutely nothing prevents the Department of Justice from pursuing and preventing monopolistic behavior in the marketplace," he said.

The measure narrowly passed the commerce telecommunications subcommittee and is slated to be taken up by the full committee possibly next week. The Senate may consider the House version or could craft its own measure. REUTERS

© 2001 Reuters

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Pops

Here is an interesting little baby for ya.

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MARKETWATCH NEWS NEWS SERVICES COMPANY RELEASES NEWS SEARCH


TV Guide Interactive Selects Concero to Support Development for ITV Integrations; Concero Furthers Its Portfolio of Interactive Television Clients

4/27/2001 4:31:00 PM
AUSTIN, Texas, Apr 27, 2001 (ENTERTAINMENT WIRE) -- Concero, Inc. (CERO) , a leading e-business services firm, today announced an agreement with TV Guide Interactive(sm), a wholly owned subsidiary of Gemstar-TV Guide International, Inc. (GMST) to provide consulting and product development support services for the digital cable TV Guide Interactive program guide.

Wink Communications beats loss views (WINK) By Michael Baron
Wink Communications (WINK) is rising 71 cents, or 15.8 percent, to $5.20, after the Alameda, Calif., interactive television technology firm reported a first-quarter loss of $12.6 million, or 41 cents a share, wider than a year-ago loss of $5.5 million, or 18 cents a share, but 3 cents narrower than the average estimate of analysts polled by First Call/Thomson Financial. Revenue for the period totaled $1.7 million. Noting that its enhanced broadcasting service is now in three million homes, the company said it's "well on the way" to reaching six million homes by the end of the year.

Is the nleeding going to stop here or not?
That is what I want to know.

NDS Group plc Reports Increased Revenue and Sustained Profit Growth for Third Quarter

4/27/2001 7:09:00 AM
LONDON, Apr 27, 2001 (BUSINESS WIRE) --

Highlights:

- Q3 revenue up 30% to (pound)54.1m ($77.4m) on Q3 in the
previous year.

- Operating income up 35% to (pound)10.1m ($14.5m) on Q3 in the
previous year.

- Nine months revenue up 44% and operating income up 92%.

- Digital cable system contract with Auna in Spain.

- Strong contribution from Orbis.

- Interactive contract with YES in Israel.

NDS Group plc



(NNDS)

, a News Corporation




(NWS)

company and the leading provider of conditional
access systems and interactive applications for digital pay TV, today
announced its unaudited results for the quarter ended 31 March 2001
(Q3 FY01).

Can somebody explain to me what LU does? I mean after all the spinoffs and sales of assets, what is left?

4/26/2001 7:01:00 AM
REDMOND, Wash. and DENVER, Apr 26, 2001 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) and Qwest Communications International Inc. (Q) , today announced a five-year strategic alliance to combine premium MSN(R) Internet Access, content and services, with Qwest's broadband Internet network and telecommunications services to more than 12 million consumer homes in Qwest's 14-state local service area. Under this pact, Qwest will exclusively market MSN Internet Access and services to new and existing customers and will make a major digital marketing commitment to the MSN network of Internet services. In addition, MSN will purchase from Qwest broadband capacity, digital subscriber lines (DSL), dial ports, and billing and collections services to support the delivery of its content solutions and services to consumers.

Two key congressmen on Tuesday introduced a bill that would allow local phone companies to offer long-distance data services, a move that other voice and data carriers said would unfairly reward companies that have engaged in anticompetitive behavior.

The bill, sponsored by House Energy and Commerce Committee chairman Billy Tauzin and Rep. John Dingell, the committee's top Democrat, would make it easier for large local phone companies like Verizon Communications and SBC Communications Inc . to offer high-speed data services, a market valued at $30 billion.

Current law prohibits the large local phone companies, or "Baby Bells," from offering long-distance data and voice services in their home areas until they can prove that their local networks are open to competitors.

A landmark 1996 bill lifted many restrictions on the U.S. telecommunications market, with hopes it would encourage competition, lower rates, improve customer service and increase advanced services like high-speed Internet access

Liberate Technologies Announces Liberate TV Producer Compact 1.1 For Application Authoring on Popular Basic Digital Set-tops

4/25/2001 7:01:00 AM
SAN CARLOS, Calif., Apr 25, 2001 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- Liberate Technologies (LBRT) , a leading provider of software for the delivery of enhanced television, today announced availability of its new Liberate(R) TV Producer(TM) Compact 1.1 authoring tools. The new toolset speeds and simplifies development of applications, extending the power of the Liberate TV Producer authoring family to the basic digital set-top box environment, including the widely-deployed Motorola DCT-2000 devices.

(Photo: http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/19990630/LIBERATE )

The Liberate TV Producer Compact software, which incorporates rapid application prototyping with PC tools, is available free from the Liberate Web site. Content providers simply register online with the Liberate PopTV(TM) Program, the world's largest interactive television application developer program boasting more than 1,900 members.