full-time investing; total portfolio up over 130% in 2009; but 2010 sucks!
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CGNW ... I agree it's reasonable at current price, so added yesterday at .225/sh and expect it to be a profitable trade eventually, but this stock moves in fits and starts and seldom according to any particular trend. Biggest risk is that they continue to pour money into an unprofitable E-storefront and force dilution. Time will tell the story.
VPHM still sick! Anybody see a bug in the financials?
IPII may have slipped today due to some percentage of earnings being attributed to a 1-time legal settlement.
Imperial Announces 2005 Third Quarter Results, Tenth Consecutive Profitable Quarter, Record Income for the First Nine Months of 2005, and Opening of New Florida Distribution Facility
Monday November 14, 4:44 pm ET
POMPANO BEACH, Fla., Nov. 14 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Imperial Industries, Inc. (Nasdaq: IPII - News) announced today the results of operations for the quarter and nine months ended September 30, 2005.
Net sales for the third quarter of 2005 were $18,068,000, compared to $13,165,000 for the same period in 2004, an increase of 37.2%. Operating income increased 104.2% to $1,413,000, for the third quarter of 2005, compared to $692,000 for the same period in 2004. Net income for the third quarter of 2005 was $839,000, or $.33 per diluted share, compared to $667,000, or $.27 per diluted share, for the third quarter of 2004, a per share increase of 22.2%. Net income for the third quarter 2004 included a pre-tax gain of $508,000 from settlement of litigation against a former employee.
Net sales for the nine months ended September 30, 2005, were $52,103,000, compared to $39,883,000 in 2004, an increase of 30.6%. Operating income for the first nine months of 2005 was $4,520,000, compared to $2,842,000 for the same period last year, an increase of 59.0%. For the nine months ended September 30, 2005, the Company derived net income of $2,681,000, or $1.06 per diluted share, compared to $2,003,000 (including the gain of $508,000 discussed above), or $.84 per diluted share, for the same period in 2004, a per share increase of 26.2%. The nine months ended September 30, 2005 was the Company's most profitable nine-month period in the last 25 years.
The third quarter and nine-month results reflect continuing strong industry demand for the Company's products principally because of the ongoing underlying strength in the housing and construction markets in the Company's trade area in the Southeastern United States. The significant increase in operating income during the 2005 periods was primarily attributable to productivity improvements arising from various cost control initiatives, in combination with the effect of increased sales in 2005 compared to 2004.
S. Daniel Ponce, Imperial's Chairman of the Board, stated: "The Company is optimistic that the construction industry will remain strong in its principal markets for the foreseeable future, driving demand for the Company's products. The Company's largest distribution facility, which is located in Gulfport, Mississippi, is well situated to benefit from the increased demand for products in the Southeastern United States Gulf Coast area due to rebuilding efforts in areas damaged by Hurricane Katrina. As evidence, the Gulfport distribution facility generated an approximate $1,220,000 increase in sales (approximately 122.2% over average monthly sales in 2005) immediately after the storm in the month of September 2005. In keeping with our strategy of profitable growth, the Company opened a new distribution facility in Fort Walton Beach, Florida in the third quarter of 2005 and is currently evaluating opening other facilities to better serve its customer base, including facilities aimed toward gaining market share in the hurricane damaged Gulf Coast area, as well as in other areas in the Southeastern United States, including the West Coast of Florida."
Imperial Industries, Inc., a building products company, sells products throughout the Southeastern United States with facilities in the States of Florida, Georgia, Mississippi and Alabama. The Company is engaged in the manufacturing and distribution of stucco, plaster and roofing products to building materials dealers, contractors and others through its subsidiary, Premix-Marbletite Manufacturing Co. The Company's subsidiary, Just-Rite Supply, Inc., is engaged in the distribution of the Company's manufactured products, as well as gypsum, roofing, insulation and masonry products manufactured by other companies. See our website at http://www.imperialindustries.com for more information about the Company.
The statements in this press release contain certain forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Such statements, including those regarding, among other things, the success of the Company's sales and marketing efforts, improvements in productivity, the Company's strategy and future prospects, are dependent on a number of factors, including changes in economic, business, and competitive market conditions, and availability of financing, only some of which are within the Company's control. Actual results could differ materially from those currently anticipated due to a number of factors, including those set forth in the Company's Securities and Exchange Commission filings under "Risk Factors." The Company assumes no obligation to update forward-looking information to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting forward-looking information. A more detailed discussion of risks attendant to the forward-looking statements included in this press release are set forth in the "Forward-Looking Statements" section of the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2004, filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC"), and in other reports already filed with the SEC.
IMPERIAL INDUSTRIES, INC.
Financial Highlights
(unaudited)
Nine Months Ended Three Months Ended
September 30, September 30,
2005 2004 2005 2004
Net Sales $52,103,000 $39,883,000 $18,068,000 $13,165,000
Income before taxes $4,222,000 $3,086,000 $1,320,000 $1,129,000
Income tax expense (1,541,000) (1,083,000) (481,000) (462,000)
Net income $2,681,000 $2,003,000 $839,000 $667,000
Basic income per
share $1.10 $.86 $.34 $.29
Diluted income per
share $1.06 $.84 $.33 $.27
Basic weighted
average shares
outstanding 2,433,533 2,320,523 2,455,635 2,332,880
Diluted weighted
average shares
outstanding 2,528,736 2,398,782 2,549,938 2,427,171
CHAR is majority owned by a company that has agreed to be bought out on the cheap. Thus there has been concern that the buyer will use their majority shareholder status to take CHAR private, that is, offer a cheap buyout price per share that is less than their excellent earnings might otherwise demand. In other words, since CHAR is already majority owned, CHAR can be owned outright (taken private) for a steal.
Speaking of low-float marvels, anybody long IPII and waiting for good earnings news? I think someone announced they are due out tonite or tomorrow.
TVIN is looking fairly strong over the last 2 days. Does anyone have an idea how soon the govt might be awarding the contracts for cannister filters? My big concern for TVIN is that Homeland Security funding must include hurricane relief expenses, so I doubt TVIN's purchases from states will be further delayed. Thus I think the cannister filter contract takes on new significance, along with their previously awarded Infrared patches for compat uniforms.
Currently, I am not in TVIN but watching closely for a chance to get back in. If someone knows the cannister filter contract award is imminent, please let me know.
Regards2All...
Good shortie play, KisK, as AOB is down 22% thus far today. Nice short bet! Congratulations.
Cool! VPHM gets added to NASDAQ Biotechnology Index next Monday (11/21/05). That can't hurt VPHM price per share.
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?guid=%7B2C2207B8-5130-4E4B-ABD6-6C822C58D3A8....
Might be interesting to watch performance of each of the stocks mentioned in the lists of stocks added and stocks removed. Should be a good correlation for stocks added going up and stocks removed going down. Statisticians?
BBB and Dr. Bill, please take your personal issues offline. Too much trash talk here on this board. It's unfortunate that one has to read thru so many lengthy treatises just to find a small acorn of value. IHUB has guidelines against bashing one another for the benefit of all readers.
I am long-term GFCI holder, but I had honestly hoped to exit long ago at a much higher price.
New wells not included because they were not complete and in production by end of Q3.
I'm havin' a little trouble keepin' myself believin' in GFCI's assets...
Hey Jerry, VPHM could still see a few volatile days ahead, so good luck. Great fundamentals and growth but without the momo crowd, it could drift even lower still. I was pretty disappointed when it didn't stay above $19 after the CC today. BTW, I thought it was a great idea to have a CC to discuss clinical trial results and anything else callers wanted to ask.
Certainly management seemed a lot more open with shareholders than our good ol' Mr. Pretty of TVIN. Have you still got that big chunk of TVIN? I'm out for now, but may try to pick some up when it appears to have bottomed. I'm watching it closely.
Good luck with TVIN and VPHM
VPHM cc was great, and reassuring, but the damage has been done to the momo participation. I see nothing ugly ahead that makes me think I should run, nor do I see a big windfall ahead in the short term for VPHM. Gotta admit, however, that the generic-induced panic attack made me queazzzzy.
Though we cannot EXPECT a quick resumption of the upward trend, we could see hedge funds and more institutions buying again to help VPHM (little toot) make it up the hill again.
Prediction: It's a crapshoot short term. but fundamentals are good enough to expect a slow and steady climb to resume in the next week or two. I think we will see a new high by yearend, and maybe even by end of November. A few more bullish recommendations by analysts would really help here.
Good luck to VPHMlongs.
VPHM has made me feel like the little fly...
VPHM should do well tomorrow unless the CC gets too confusing to follow. They need to discuss the clinical trial AND generic competition issues.
Great Currency Converter... will convert C$1.11( for CZE.V) to US$.935(for CZEKF.pk)
http://www.xe.com/ucc/
3 items happened with VPHM today:
1. An investment company filed 13G to announce more than 5% ownership.
2. Article in NYTimes mentions grand financial performance of VPHM, plus comment that taking the generic form of the intravenous Vancomycin antibiotic orally is effective 70-90% of the time.
3. Presentation at 3:10 at an investment conference. Dunno what was said.
now trading at 21-21.15 at 6:10pm
NYTimes article is same as was posted this morning by someone else before market opened. Here's link to VPHM article as posted by NYTimes.
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/09/business/09viro.html?ex=1217912400&en=adf5a202dfaba496&ei=....
VPHM fell off the truck afterhours, now at 20.50, maybe because the NYTimes article hit the wires shortly after the close of trading. If anybody has a better guess why, please share it.
Hey Len, I'd be interested in your target price for entering VPHM as it had gapped up 2 days ago then started a 2day slide. Assuming you were looking to buy where would you set your limit (as based on "filling" the recent gap)?
RRainman, Salutations! CYD has taken a beating lately, but it appears to be near a bottom. It has that very low PE, some issues showed up with margins last qtr, and future growth may also be questionable. Any thoughts on CYD will be appreciated.
VPHM CC was very upbeat yesterday. VPHM longs and on-the-fencers should listen.
CYD ... still low PE ... still sliding ???
Grifco International, Inc. Announces Reorganization and Special Dividend Distribution for Coil Tubing Technology, Inc.
Tuesday November 8, 8:15 am ET
HOUSTON, TX--(MARKET WIRE)--Nov 8, 2005 -- Grifco International, Inc. (Other OTC:GFCI.PK - News) announced today that it has commenced the reorganization of its wholly owned subsidiary Coil Tubing Technology, Inc. ("CTT") in a strategic move to enable CTT to strengthen its market position as a leading provider of oil services technology and equipment.
On November 7th, 2005, the Company consummated a reverse acquisition of IPMC Holdings Corp. (Other OTC:IPHG.PK - News) ("IPMC") whereby it exchanged all of the issued and outstanding capital stock of CTT in exchange for 75,000,000 newly issued shares of IPMC's common stock. As a result of the exchange, Grifco owns approximately 88% of IPMC's voting stock and CTT is a wholly owned subsidiary of IPMC. Pursuant to the terms of the exchange, the officers and directors of Grifco have been appointed as officers and directors of IPMC and IPMC's former officers and directors have resigned. The Company will change the name of IPMC to reflect its new focus as the parent of CTT's operations.
"The spinoff gives Coil Tubing Technology the ideal platform to strengthen its industry leadership and the ability to attract investors who recognize the value of our new breed of oilfield technologies," said Jerry Swinford, founder of Coil Tubing Technology (CTT). "CTT would like to welcome the GFCI shareholders into this exciting and new iteration of our company."
The Company also announces today its intention to spin-off the operations of CTT from Grifco as a special dividend distribution to its shareholders. Grifco anticipates the spin-off will occur shortly after a registration statement for IPMC's common stock is declared effective by the Securities and Exchange Commission. After separation, CTT will be a separate publicly traded company in which Grifco will not retain ownership interest.
"This spinoff confirms Grifco's commitment to provide superior value to its shareholders through technology leadership and bold organizational decisions," said Grifco International President and CEO Jim Dial. "CTT has the industry reputation and products to stand on its own, which is why we believe the company will flourish after the spin off, and our shareholders will receive the benefit."
"It's important to note that the special dividend distribution of CTT's shares will reflect the ownership of Grifco's shareholders in CTT," Dial added. "At the same time as this compelling dividend development for Grifco shareholders, GFCI enters the 90 day window to break ground on Global Oil Tools, Libya; shortly thereafter, Grifco begins production on a $20 million planned purchase order to kick start the Libya manufacturing facility. Grifco continues to excel in our core competency: the acquisition, production, and distribution of oilfield technologies and equipment."
Coil Tubing Technology Inc. (CTT) has specialized in the design of proprietary tools for the coil tubing industry since 1990, concentrating on four categories of coil tubing applications: thru tubing fishing, thru tubing work over, pipeline clean out, and coil tubing drilling. CTT was founded in 1998 by Jerry Swinford, an oilfield tool designer with more than fifteen patents granted or pending and more than 25 years experience in the creation of oilfield tools.
Grifco International is a leading provider of oil and gas services equipment, specializing in the conception, architecture, and development of tools for the coil tubing, wire line, and snubbing industry throughout the United States, China, Mexico, South America, the Middle East and Africa. Grifco's patented products are known and used throughout the world. In addition to our patented tools, Grifco holds and owns design rights and manufacturing facilities for producing more than 6,000 products for the oil and gas industry with more than 150 clients, boasting the biggest names in the business, including Halliburton, Exxon, and Schlumberger. Please visit www.grifco.org
Forward-Looking Statements
Certain statements in this release, and other written or oral statements made by the Company, including the use of the words "expect," "anticipate," "estimate," "project," "forecast," "outlook," "target," "objective," "plan," "goal," "pursue," "on track," and similar expressions, are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. These forward-looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results, performance, or achievements of the company to be different from those expressed or implied. The Company assumes no obligation and does not intend to update these forward-looking statements. Among the important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated by such forward-looking statements include, without limitation: competitive and general economic conditions, adverse effects of litigation, the timely development and acceptance of our products and services, significant changes in the competitive environment, the failure to generate or the loss of significant numbers of customers, the loss of senior management or increased government regulation.
Contact:
Contact:
Princeton Research Inc.
Mike King
702-650-3000
Hey Jerry, nice to hear from you. Yeah, if TVIN would just boooosh like VPHM, that would make a few longtime holders happy for sure. I haven't seen hide nor hair of tvibooster. Someone said he may have actually sold out of TVIN. Any truth to that? I also heard Mr. Pretty was in Europe recently. Any idea why? I gave up on TVIN recently myself, but good luck to you on Wednesday. I decided there was too much risk that some of the first responder money would be moved over to cover Katrina costs instead of building decon shelters. Regards...
Bought XWG after the earnings flop last week, then watched it poop down another 15% today. Added at 5.50 this morning...
Anybody able to rationalize this further selloff in XWG? Is it really a bad play at this price? P/E is less than half that of competitor FORD.
Great earnings news ... .31 diluted in Q3
VPHM earns .31 diluted ... WOW!!! go baby!!!
VPHM range of "official" estimates is .15-.27 w/ .21avg. Since earnings are announced Tuesday AM, anybody else have one they'd like to share? I'm hoping they are .30 or greater but I haven't done the numbers.
echos ... you just made this conflicted board worthwhile! thanks for posting my new favorite song.
VPHM news out on new supplier going into next year as they raise production (revenue) capability for 2006. BTW, demand for their drug is somewhat seasonal, so it will be interesting to see yr/yr revenues in latest Q3 report on Monday.
Stock up a smidge after hrs on the news.
This is my big bet for next week...!!!
RGEN stinkin' today after recovering over last 2 weeks. Earnings tomorrow?
When Bill O'Reallynow retires, who is the scumbag heir apparent? Shun Hannity?
What payment does VPHM get from SP when their drug enters PhaseIII?
I'm assuming there was some dilution associated with the agreement and freeing up of assets.
The left may succeed with Borking Alito ...
Hey, all kidding aside, that's a funny expression....
Borking Alito ...
Borking Alito ...
Borking Alito ...
Borking Alito ...
Borking Alito ...
Borking Alito ...
Borking Alito ...
Borking Alito ...
Borking Alito ...
Gotta love it! You sure know how to flap your Right Wing!!!
Hey Bob, glad you maintain the humor even when it's warm in Seattle and NYC and the North Pole (Santa likes it). Did your EPEX computations include any lost production due twin sisters Katrina & Rita ???
Quite possibly someone on this board is doing the EPEX option selling today ... let's see, R59? BobWins? Anybody else own EPEX options? I guess if you have a large position it may be reasonable to lighten before a surprise shows up in earnings.
Special Report: The Bird Flu and You
By Strategic Forecasting, Inc. (excerpted from John Mauldin's newsletter)
Stratfor subscribers have been sending us a steady river of requests for our opinion on the bird flu situation. Although we are not medical experts, among our sources are those who are. And here is what we have been able to conclude based on their input and our broader analysis of the bird flu threat:
Calm down.
Now let us qualify that: Since December 2003, the H5N1 bird flu virus -- which has caused all the ruckus -- has been responsible for the documented infection of 121 people, 91 one of whom caught the virus in Vietnam. In all cases where information on the chain of infection has been confirmed, the virus was transmitted either by repeated close contact with fowl or via the ingestion of insufficiently cooked chicken products. In not a single case has human-to-human communicability been confirmed. So long as that remains the case, there is no bird flu threat to the human population of places such as Vietnam at large, much less the United States.
The Politics of Genetics
An uncomfortable but undeniable fact is that there are a great many people and institutions in this world that have a vested interest in feeding the bird flu scare. Much like the "Y2K" bug that commanded public attention in 1999, bird flu is all you hear about. Comparisons to the 1918 Spanish influenza have produced death toll projections in excess of 360 million, evoking images of chaos in the streets.
One does not qualify for funding -- whether for academic research, medical development or contingency studies -- by postulating about best-case scenarios. The strategy is to show up front how bad things could get, and to scare your targeted benefactors into having you study the problem and manufacture solutions.
This hardly means that these people are evil, greedy or irresponsible (although, in the case of Y2K or when a health threat shuts down agricultural trade for years, one really tends to wonder). It simply means that fear is an effective way to spark interest and action.
Current medical technology lacks the ability to cure -- or even reliably vaccinate against -- highly mutable viral infections; the best available medicines can only treat symptoms -- like Roche's Tamiflu, which is becoming as scarce as the oftentimes legendary red mercury -- or slow a virus' reproduction rate. Is more research needed? Certainly. But are we on the brink of a cataclysmic outbreak? Certainly not.
A bird flu pandemic among the human population is broadly in the same category as a meteor strike. Of course it will happen sooner or later -- and when it does, watch out! But there is no -- absolutely no -- particular reason to fear a global flu pandemic this flu season.
This does not mean the laws of nature have changed since 1918; it simply means there is no way to predict when an animal virus will break into the human population in any particular year -- or even if it will at all. Yes, H5N1 does show a propensity to mutate; and, yes, sooner or later another domesticated animal disease will cross over into the human population (most common human diseases have such origins). But there is no scientifically plausible reason to expect such a crossover to be imminent.
But if you are trying to find something to worry about, you should at least worry about the right thing.
A virus can mutate in any host, and pound for pound, the mutations that are of most interest to humanity are obviously those that occur within a human host. That means that each person who catches H5N1 due to a close encounter of the bird kind in effect becomes a sort of laboratory that could foster a mutation and that could have characteristics that would allow H5N1 to be communicable to other humans. Without such a specific mutation, bird flu is a problem for turkeys, but not for the non-turkey farmers among us.
But we are talking about a grand total of 115 people catching the bug over the course of the past three years. That does not exactly produce great odds for a virus -- no matter how genetically mutable -- to evolve successfully into a human-communicable strain. And bear in mind that the first-ever human case of H5N1 was not in 2003 but in 1997. There is not anything fundamentally new in this year's bird flu scare.
A more likely vector, therefore, would be for H5N1 to leap into a species of animal that bears similarities to human immunology yet lives in quarters close enough to encourage viral spread -- and lacks the capacity to complete detailed questionnaires about family health history.
The most likely candidate is the pig. On many farms, birds and pigs regularly intermingle, allowing for cross-infection, and similar pig-human biology means that pigs serving in the role as mutation incubator are statistically more likely than the odd Vietnamese raw-chicken eater to generate a pandemic virus.
And once the virus mutates into a form that is pig-pig transferable, a human pandemic is only one short mutation away. Put another way, a bird flu pandemic among birds is manageable. A bird flu pandemic among pigs is not, and is nearly guaranteed to become a human pandemic.
Pandemics: Past and Future
What precisely is a pandemic? The short version is that it is an epidemic that is everywhere. Epidemics affect large numbers of people in a relatively contained region. Pandemics are in effect the same, but without the geographic limitations. In 1854 a cholera epidemic struck London. The European settling of the Americas brought disease pandemics to the Native Americans that nearly eliminated them as an ethnic classification.
In 1918 the influenza outbreak spread in two waves. The first hit in March, and was only marginally more dangerous than the flu outbreaks of the previous six years. But in the trenches of war-torn France, the virus mutated into a new, more virulent strain that swept back across the world, ultimately killing anywhere from 20 million to 100 million people. Some one in four Americans became infected -- nearly all in one horrid month in October, and some 550,000 -- about 0.5 percent of the total population -- succumbed. Playing that figure forward to today's population, theoretically 1.6 million Americans would die. Suddenly the fear makes a bit more sense, right?
Wrong.
There are four major differences between the 1918 scenario and any new flu pandemic development:
First -- and this one could actually make the death toll higher -- is the virus itself.
No one knows how lethal H5N1 (or any animal pathogen) would be if it adapted to human hosts. Not knowing that makes it impossible to reliably predict the as-yet-unmutated virus' mortality rate.
At this point, the mortality rate among infected humans is running right at about 50 percent, but that hardly means that is what it would look like if the virus became human-to-human communicable. Remember, the virus needs to mutate before it is a threat to humanity -- there is no reason to expect it to mutate just once. Also, in general, the more communicable a disease becomes the lower its mortality rate tends to be. A virus -- like all life forms -- has a vested interest in not wiping out its host population.
One of the features that made the 1918 panic so unnerving is the "W" nature of the mortality curve. For reasons unknown, the virus proved more effective than most at killing people in the prime of their lives -- those in the 15- to 44-year-old age brackets. While there is no reason to expect the next pandemic virus to not have such a feature, similarly there is no reason to expect the next pandemic virus to share that feature.
Second, 1918 was not exactly a "typical" year.
World War I, while coming to a close, was still raging. The war was unique in that it was fought largely in trenches, among the least sanitary of human habitats. Soldiers not only faced degrading health from their "quarters" in wartime, but even when they were not fighting at the front they were living in barracks. Such conditions ensured that they were: a) not in the best of health, and b) constantly exposed to whatever airborne diseases afflicted the rest of their unit.
As such, the military circumstances and style of the war ensured that soldiers were not only extraordinarily susceptible to catching the flu, but also extraordinarily susceptible to dying of it. Over half of U.S. war dead in World War I -- some 65,000 men -- were the result not of combat but of the flu pandemic.
And it should be no surprise that in 1918, circulation of military personnel was the leading vector for infecting civilian populations the world over. Nevertheless, while the United States is obviously involved in a war in 2005, it is not involved in anything close to trench warfare, and the total percentage of the U.S. population involved in Iraq and Afghanistan -- 0.005 percent -- is middling compared to the 2.0 percent involvement in World War I.
Third, health and nutrition levels have radically changed in the past 87 years. Though fears of obesity and insufficient school lunch nutrition are all the rage in the media, no one would seriously postulate that overall American health today is in worse shape than it was in 1918. The healthier a person is going into a sickness, the better his or her chances are of emerging from it. Sometimes it really is just that simple.
Indeed, a huge consideration in any modern-day pandemic is availability of and access to medical care. Poorer people tend to live in closer quarters and are more likely to have occupations (military, services, construction, etc.) in which they regularly encounter large numbers of people. According to a 1931 study of the 1918 flu pandemic by the U.S. Public Health Service, the poor were about 20 percent to 30 percent more likely to contract the flu, and overall mortality rates of the "well-to-do" were less than half that of the "poor" and "very poor."
But the fourth factor, which will pull some of the strength out of any new pandemic, is even more basic than starting health: antibiotics. The 1918 pandemic virus was similar to the more standard influenza virus in that the majority of those who perished died not from the primary attack of the flu but from secondary infections -- typically bacteria or fungal -- that triggered pneumonia. While antibiotics are hardly a silver bullet and they are useless against viruses, they raise the simple possibility of treatment for bacterial or fungal illnesses. Penicillin -- the first commercialized antibiotic -- was not discovered until 1929, 11 years too late to help when panic gripped the world in 1918.