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POKERSAM, you don't need to defend yourself. Everyone has been duped--many times--by this rally. I admire you for admitting you were wrong. That takes guts, especially in a public forum such as this. The one thing that you and I disagree on has to do with market manipulation. There's overwhelming evidence that Goldman is doing this. And if it's true, then they know precisely where the majority of traders--good ones such as yourself--are going to draw the line and go short (such as at SPX 956 or 1008, for example). So they raised the bar a little. Time to reset one's charts and go forward. Two
Not so OT: Here is something I posted at POKERSAM's site that, in my opinion, is a must read for all traders. Two
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Hawk, that report you refer to may have been purloined from Goldman Sachs. Can you imagine this company having a "security leak"? Well, it probably did. And the report gives away the company's trading strategy, which I've posted below (as well as the link to the report). This is really important for traders to read, don't you think? Two
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US Commercial Real Estate Market ImplementationDescription
S
H
O
R
T
Buy 1-2yr Puts or Put Spreads on REITs
Puts can be purchased on a REIT equity index or on a basket of individual names in the Retail and Office sectors
Buy a put outright or cheapen the cost by selling a further out of the money put to create a put spread
Loss is limited to premium paid
Risk: The Investor stands to lost the entire option premium if REIT equities decline less than anticipated
L
O
N
G
Buy AAA CMBS
Buy non-TALF eligible CMBS AAA Bonds of late 2006 or early 2007 Vintage A3/A4s
Collect a regular stream of cash flows and potentially benefit from price appreciation
Goldman Sachs trading desks maintain an inventory of bonds
Risk: the underlying loans may cease to pay their mortgage payments which could impair the value of the bond price and impact cash flows
Sell Protection on
AAA CMBX
Sell protection on the CMBX 5 AAA tranche
Risk: CMBX spreads may widen exposing the investor to a loss
http://tulpenwoede.tornflag.com/statemar.pdf
Hawk, that report you refer to may have been purloined from Goldman Sachs. Can you imagine this company having a "security leak"? Well, it probably did. And the report gives away the company's trading strategy, which I've posted below (as well as the link to the report). This is really important for traders to read, don't you think? Two
=======================
US Commercial Real Estate Market ImplementationDescription
S
H
O
R
T
Buy 1-2yr Puts or Put Spreads on REITs
Puts can be purchased on a REIT equity index or on a basket of individual names in the Retail and Office sectors
Buy a put outright or cheapen the cost by selling a further out of the money put to create a put spread
Loss is limited to premium paid
Risk: The Investor stands to lost the entire option premium if REIT equities decline less than anticipated
L
O
N
G
Buy AAA CMBS
Buy non-TALF eligible CMBS AAA Bonds of late 2006 or early 2007 Vintage A3/A4s
Collect a regular stream of cash flows and potentially benefit from price appreciation
Goldman Sachs trading desks maintain an inventory of bonds
Risk: the underlying loans may cease to pay their mortgage payments which could impair the value of the bond price and impact cash flows
Sell Protection on
AAA CMBX
Sell protection on the CMBX 5 AAA tranche
Risk: CMBX spreads may widen exposing the investor to a loss
http://tulpenwoede.tornflag.com/statemar.pdf
My trading instincts tell me Da Boyz are going to take up the NDX to around the previous high (1632) and do so right before the close...just to confuse everyone. That said, my 5-min NDX charts suggest this is a fakeout up-move and that downside is coming. Monday? Two
OT: I don't know about your town, but gasoline prices are going up in my neck of the woods? Who's zooming who? Is oil running out...or not? (From today's Daily Bell) Two
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Warning: Oil supplies are running out fast
The world is heading for a catastrophic energy crunch that could cripple a global economic recovery because most of the major oil fields in the world have passed their peak production, a leading energy economist has warned. Higher oil prices brought on by a rapid increase in demand and a stagnation, or even decline, in supply could blow any recovery off course, said Dr. Fatih Birol, the chief economist at the respected International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris, which is charged with the task of assessing future energy supplies by OECD countries. - Independent (UK)
Dominant Social Theme: Better trade in the ole gas guzzler.
Free-Market Analysis: The monetary elite has every reason to develop and sustain the meme that oil is running out. The wealth to be garnered by controlling such a basic substance is phenomenal. The perception that such a substance is rare and getting rarer only adds to its value.
Yet there is plenty of oil in the world, we have come to believe. We think, in fact, it may be abiotic - a naturally reoccurring substance (why else the reports of oil fields filling back up?). In any event our suspicions are based on a variety of factors. Here's another: Those involved in the production of oil, and its analysis, have gone out of their way to label it a "fossil fuel."
This is not merely a serendipitous phenomenon, such labels never are. In fact, it is naïve to believe that producers should be pro-plenty while those who oppose a product or service should be pro-scarcity. Most large-scale producers have a vested interest in a public perception that their good or service is in short supply.
We have pointed out that the monetary system is manipulated. We make this statement regularly and with some confidence because central banks are taxed by governments with the blunt mandate to fix the price of and volume of money. Likewise, we believe it is obvious that the price and quantity of oil is manipulated. There is, in fact, probably as little a free market in oil as in money.
LOL...how true, how true. HAL is a reality. Two
OT: Glad someone tells the truth about today's unemployment report and the resulting rally. Two
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Denninger/Market Ticker
Let's talk about the employment report:
Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline in July (-247,000), and the unemployment rate was little changed at 9.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The average monthly job loss for May through July (-331,000) was about half the average decline for November through April (-645,000). In July, job losses continued in many of the major industry sectors.
That's the headline.
Now let's look inside, and see if we find actual "green shoots".
Among the major worker groups, unemployment rates for adult men (9.8 percent), adult women (7.5 percent), teenagers (23.8 percent), whites (8.6 percent), blacks (14.5 percent), and Hispanics (12.3 percent) were little changed in July. The unemployment rate for Asians was 8.3 percent, not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
Ok, that's not bad. Not getting worse isn't getting better, but it IS "not getting worse."
In July, the average workweek of production and nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1 hour to 33.1 hours. The manufacturing workweek increased by 0.3 hour to 39.8 hours. Factory overtime was unchanged at 2.9 hours. (See table B-2.)
This is the first upward move in hourly workweek; that is a legitimate improvement, and one of the four items that is in my "must improve" list before economic recovery can be signaled. I need two more positive sequential prints to confirm a trend change.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised from -322,000 to -303,000, and the change for June was revised from -467,000 to -443,000.
That's a problem but its in the rear-view mirror.
Now let's talk about the bad news.
The civilian labor force participation rate declined by 0.2 percentage point in July to 65.5 percent.
This is extremely bad news.
The participation rate must be adjusted back out of the unemployment numbers because those who are not looking for jobs - who have "dropped out" of the workforce - are no longer counted as "unemployed" but they sure count when it comes to consumer spending and thus impact on GDP.
Looking down the release at Page 19 we see that on an unadjusted basis there was no change in unemployment rate (as opposed to a slight improvement) either in U-3 or U-6, and U-5 worsened slightly. This comparison shows that the shift to forcible part-time work - that is, those who are working part-time but want full-time employment, is continuing, and belies any claim of overall improvement.
The general tone of this report thus is characterized as mildly positive on-balance, with the caveat being the forcible shift to part-time employment. When looked at in the context of the expected summer employment boost (e.g. theme parks, hospitality increase for summer vacations, etc) the report is rather nasty however - the usual seasonal spike that one would see in the unadjusted data is greatly muted, signaling caution for the durability of any "improvement" that one might expect to see going forward.
Key will be whether that hiring in fact took place (and masked other weakness, which from a perusal of the internals of the report it appears may have happened) or whether there was simply no hiring at all, in which case this improvement may signal a true organic shift of some sort.
It is for this reason that I require at least two (and preferably three) months of improvement in hours-worked before I call the indicator for employment slack as having turned around.
How "far up"? As far up as it takes Goldman and their buddies to sell their longs and buy shorts. Two
Gleno, I'm usually wrong about these things, but remember three days ago when I suggested to you that Da Boyz could drive up the indexes right into Friday's close? Two
2bit, my sore eyes and charts suggest they'll drop the NDX into the close, but tomorrow may see a bounce. Do you--or anyone else--think tomorrow's employment numbers will be "good"? Two
Gleno, thank you for posting Abby Ho Cohen's "prognosis." She, her employer and CNBS rank in the same category. Totally believable, reliable and honest (lol). Two
Well, I got a QLD buy signal around 10:30 EST. Not very productive so far. But who knows, we may test 1632 once again? Two
Someone's making a lot of money on the AIG deal. Two
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NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street banks and lawyers could collect nearly $1 billion in fees from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and American International Group Inc to help manage and break apart the insurer, The Wall Street Journal said on Wednesday, citing its own analysis.
Morgan Stanley could collect as much as $250 million, the newspaper said, citing banking experts and documents released by the New York Fed.
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE57508M20090806
What caused the "buy-the-dip" today was Goldman's black boxes working at full speed (lol). Two
OT: Today's irony--Just read that JPM is higher now than it was in October, 2007, when the Dow was 14,000. Haven't verified that fact? But I guess JPM and the banks are out of trouble, right? LOL. Two
I think they're going to rally the NDX/Qs from today's low at 1:06 EST right into Friday's close. JMHO. Two
gloe, thanks for looking. My e-wave friends like his analyses, of course. But he's not very helpful for daytraders or those who trade funds on an interday basis. There's such a thing as analytical overkill. Your charts/systems work just fine, from what I can tell. Two
gloe, that's why I stopped my subscription. Too much confusion and noise. Two
Hi, Gleno. I no longer subscribe to McHugh so I can't respond to your question. Sorry. SPDPRO, I hope you held you QLD position even during the several tests?
OT: Looks like Goldman does a better (or maybe worse) job of running Italy than the mafia? Two
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/2809685/Italians-claim-country-run-by-Goldman-Sachs.html?www.GoldmanSachs666.com
gloe, good move. Looks like RUT futures turned around same time as QLD? I may go back to trading the futures. Two
I think we're all right. In at 44.83, which might be tested several times(?). Two
I got my first QLD buy signal at 11:41 EST. Anyone else take a long? Two
OT: Hmmm...GS allowed itself to have two negative trading days during the second quarter? Even in Vegas the "house" has a higher loss ratio to make gamblers think they have a chance. Denninger explains. Two
===========================
Remember what was said about Madoff when people started looking at his operation?
There were only two possible explanations for the firm's apparently never-losing trading: They were either front-running or cheating in some other fashion, or the entire thing was a gigantic ponzi scheme.
We later learned that #2 was the case.
But is there an example of #1 somewhere? Hmmmm....
Aug. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. made more than $100 million in trading revenue on a record 46 separate days during the second quarter, or 71 percent of the time, breaking the previous high of 34 days in the prior three months.
Trading losses occurred on two days during the months of April, May and June, down from eight in the first quarter, the New York-based bank said today in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The company made at least $50 million on 58 of the 65 trading days during the quarter, or 89 percent of the time.
Just two days of losses in the entire quarter?
There are a lot of very good traders in the world, but nobody has that sort of record on any sort of consistent basis unless they've managed to rig the game.
You can be "the smartest guys in the room" but nearly-perfect records at the poker table are almost always an indication that someone has managed to figure out a way to peek at the other side's hole cards.
Oh, and they're gambling (or cheating?) with your money too - not their own:
Banks such as Goldman Sachs are benefiting from lower borrowing costs after the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. in October started guaranteeing bank debt issues that mature within three years. Goldman Sachs said in today’s filing it had $25.1 billion of debt guaranteed by the FDIC under the agency’s Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program. The bank sold about $30 billion of the FDIC-backed securities between November and March, according to company filings.
Is this an example of "heads we win, tails you lose, and we're peeking at your hole cards"?
Inquiring minds want to know.
Looks like the NDX may bounce a little here, but I see them taking it down into the mid afternoon before the ramp into the close. Two
Very interesting, 2bit. What evil reports is no coincidence, as I'm sure you'll agree. Thx for posting. Two
OT: Why is it all the really great financial journalists write for relatively obscure blogs or newspapers outside our nation? If you've got the time and want to know how Goldman Sachs is beating everyone in the stock market by literally a half-second with its high-frequency trading, then read Julian Delasantelis' article, "Goldman Sachs, the lords of time," that appeared in Asia Times. Two
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/KH05Dj03.html
Dan, I think you're right. My 1- and 5-min NDX charts suggest the final ramp was a fakeout and we should gap down in the morning. But the overall trend is still up. So any gap down will be bought, in my opinion. Two
OT: This is downright funny. Two
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From ZeroHedge:
Ken Lewis Tips Mary Schapiro $33M For Good Service
Submitted by Benjamin N. Dover III on 08/03/2009 22:39 -0500
In its continuing effort to make government more efficient by using less paper, the SEC today simultaneously charged Bank of America with misleading investors about billions of dollars in bonuses that were being paid to Merrill Lynch executives at the time of its acquisition of the firm in 2008 and agreed to dismiss the case in return for $33M (a whopping 0.44% of BofA's 2009 YTD earnings) -- all in one press release.
The SEC claimed that in its proxy materials concerning its proposed merger with Merrill last year, BofA said Merrill had agreed not to pay bonuses to its execs without the consent of BofA. It turns out, though, that BofA had already contractually authorized Merrill to shell out up to $5.8B in bonuses for 2008 (a mere 12% of the $50B merger price).
To its credit, the SEC didn't announce plans to refer the case for criminal indictment or charge any BofA officers or directors (what? it makes perfect sense that a corporation can err without any of its people erring) despite what many investor advocates regard as an open-and-shut case of flagrant securities fraud. Needless to say, BofA -- which admitted no liability in the settlement -- announced no plans for an internal investigation to discover how the wrongdoing didn't occur and who didn't commit it.
The SEC must have come to its senses and realized immediately after bringing the charges that the whole imbroglio -- which has sparked Congressional hearings, led to a New York State Attorney General investigation, and implicated Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson -- was all a big misunderstanding. When BofA said Merrill would not pay any bonuses, what it really meant to say was that Merrill would not pay any bonuses "in excess of $6B." Anyone could have made that drafting error. And BofA's failure to append to the proxy statement the written agreement that allowed Merrill to pay the bonuses was probably the result of an unfortunate oversight by a junior member of BofA's outside counsel team. Besides, in the end, Merrill didn't pay anywhere near $5.8B in bonuses. Its bonuses totaled only $3.6B -- a full $23B less than Merrill lost in 2008.
The SEC also had the good sense not to bring charges relating to the outlandish allegations that BofA committed an even more egregious violation of the securities laws, and a breach of fiduciary duty to shareholders, by failing to disclose Merrill's mounting credit-related losses when they became apparent to BofA after the merger vote but before the closing. A paltry $12B in unanticipated losses, with no telling how many more billions in losses to come, hardly constitutes a "material adverse change" (which would have allowed BofA to back out of the deal). And if you don't trust my legal judgment, just ask any BofA lawyer.
And besides, this is a matter best left to internal corporate governance. Those BofA shareholders who didn't sell their stock at a monumental loss before the company's annual meeting in April voted to retain Lewis as CEO despite the alleged securities violations, the Merrill losses, the BofA red ink, the plummeting share price, and the bank's need for tens of billions in taxpayer handouts and loan guarantees to stay afloat. What better proof could there be that Lewis did nothing wrong?
The SEC also deserves a pat on the back for not embroiling itself in the messy allegations that two top government officials -- Bernanke and Paulson -- threatened to fire Lewis if he didn't close the Merrill deal after discovering the unexpected losses. Bernanke and Paulson's actions were clearly justified under the little-known "systemic risk" exception to the securities laws. Ordinarily, corporate executives have a duty to disclose material information to shareholders relating to a securities transaction like a merger proposal, and a government official pressuring an executive not to do so could be considered aiding and abetting, or perhaps even suborning violation of the securities laws.
However, when a government official believes that a transaction is crucial to the stability of the financial system, all 75-years-worth of securities regulation is automatically placed on double-secret suspension until after the transaction is completed. Of course, this exception isn't explicitly stated anywhere in the securities laws -- it's just, sort of, understood by those in the know. Don't believe me? Just ask Ben Bernanke's attorney.
As for Lewis's capitulation to these officials' pressure, he's exempted from liability by the even-lesser-known "I-had-to-throw-my-shareholders-under-a-bus-to-save-my-phoney-baloney-job" exception. (That one's explicit in the securities laws.)
Unfortunately, the BofA shareholders who lost billions by buying or holding BofA stock between the time of the merger vote and the revelation of the undisclosed Merrill bonuses and losses weeks later probably won't be satisfied with these innocent explanations. (Nor will the pain-in-the-ass, Wall Street-hating Attorney General of New York. No, not "Client No. 9," the new one.) And because BofA shareholders are represented by the greedy sharks known as securities class action lawyers, they probably won't settle for $33M in lieu of those lost billions, like Schapiro did. If only Mary's service to Ken today had included a wholesale retroactive repeal of the securities laws, he might have given her an even bigger tip.
(In completely unrelated news, BofA announced today it was shuffling its senior management, while (thank GoldmanGod) leaving the Great Helmsman, Ken Lewis, still at the wheel. Although BofA didn't admit any culpability in its settlement with the SEC, this "management shakeup," along with the settlement, means BofA can put all this unpleasant non-wrongdoing behind it with a shiny happy new management team headed by the same old reliable, competent and trustworthy leader.)
Hi, smilinghiker. What has been your experience as far as the .382 retrace number? For example, have you found that the SPX corrected at this level a significant number of times? Or did another number--say, the .50 retrace level--show more "potential" for major turns? TIA. Two
OT: Does this article resonate with anyone else? It's funny where you can sometimes find the truth. Two
http://english.aljazeera.net/focus/2009/06/20096995715625752.html
Anyone experiencing data-flow problems? Prophet's data-flow from the NYSE has frozen. TIA. Two
Thanks, foot. That's a good indicator. Two
Hi, blasher. Just a theory. Da Boyz are businessmen who, in addition to their crooked manipulation of the stock market, have a vested interest in all the machinery/institutions of the healthcare industry, which is an enormous cash cow. They probably see Obama's healthcare legislation as a way to ensure even more tax dollars will keep flowing into this industry. We'll see. Two
It's possible, but the odds aren't good. My guess is that Da Boyz keep the momentum going up into Friday. Perhaps we turn down next week when Congress is in recess? Da Boyz want the healthcare legislation to go through. So, they may put on the pressure by dropping the indexes. Gives the Congressional dissenters something to "think about." Two
Hey, Foot. What is the red line on your SPY chart? TIA. Two
Nothing is wrong with what you mentioned. Those are the plan's good components. I'm just pointing out negative factors that may out-weigh the positive ones. You're right about spreading the money over a longer period. Once the program stops, car sales will plummet. Then what? Two
Foot, someone in Orlando is in trouble. Two
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Downtown building raided
by FBI
Updated: Monday, 03 Aug 2009, 2:41 PM EDT
Published : Monday, 03 Aug 2009, 12:07 PM EDT
ORANGE COUNTY, Fla. (WOFL FOX 35) - - FBI agents from the Washington, D.C. field office have raided a building in downtown Orlando. Federal and local law enforcement surrounded the Colonial Bank building on East Pine Street in Orlando just before noon.
The FBI is working with the Office of the Special Inspector General for the Troubled Asset Relief Program which was established by the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008.
Agents served search warrants and pulled out documents bringing them out a side entrance and placing them in to a Ryder truck.
A spokeswoman with both the FBI and the Inspector General wouldn't give details about their investigation.
It's hard to fathom, fish. Last year, the new car dealers were making more money selling used cars they took on trades. I wonder if they'd secretly like to keep some of the clunkers and later sell them, rather than destroy the engines? Especially when the clunker money runs out again. Two
OT: john, what about all the folks in America who would like to buy the clunkers because they can't afford new cars and they don't want to get into debt? Obama's program insists on destroying the engines, making the cars inoperable. I think it's plain stupid. I mean, why not recycle the engines, especially the four- and six-cylinder engines? As I'm sure you know, there's an enormous industry that does just that. Lots of taxi and delivery companies buy these engines for their fleets. Recycling the engines saves on natural resources, as well. I could go on, but you get the picture. Two
OT: I have a neighbor who traded his clunker for a new car...and now he's in debt again. Denninger points out this is one of the downsides of the clunker program. No wonder we're a debtor nation. Two
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So we spend $1 billion and what do we get?
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Ford Motor Co. said Monday that U.S. July sales rose 2.3% to 165,279 vehicles, reversing nearly two years of monthly year-over-year losses.
Ok. So for $1 billion Ford managed to sell 3,801 more vehicles this month compared to last year's number, and now is pushing a roughly 2 million unit/year run rate.
Hmmmm...
In addition to this (tiny) impact over last year, we have done the following:
Removed more-guzzling cars from the road and replaced them with less-guzzling (good).
Significantly shifted the sales matrix toward smaller, more efficient - but far less profitable vehicles (not so good.)
Taken someone who had a paid-off car and thus no auto debt (good) and replaced that with someone who now has a huge car payment on a vehicle worth less than the loan amount the instant they drive it off the lot (bad).
Destroyed the engine (the most valuable part) of that older vehicle, thereby trashing the business of both used car lots and automotive recyclers and used parts dealers (very bad.)
A good idea? Well, I suppose if the intent is to try to get Americans to be more of a debt slave when they're already choking on too much debt.......
But net-on-net for the economy? Assuming gas goes to $5/gallon (and if crude's move of late, doubling in the last few months, is any indication that's exactly what we'll soon be seeing) and presuming an average purchase price of $20,000, ignoring finance charges (hah!) we're talking about 4,000 gallons of gasoline.
If the average clunker got 15 miles per gallon the driver of said clunker would have to put an additional 60,000 miles on it before he paid just the principal on that note.
That's a very nice debt trap you crafted there Mr. President, and utterly unsupportable on the economics.