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Maxine isn't getting any money from monetizing anything.
If she gets any money at all, it will be a fraction of that number and it will be electronically printed just like a lot of the money was before.
That is her playing to the media and throwing out a nice large number of $100 Billion.
That's her starting bid. Why is it always $100 Billion? Why not $78 Billion? Or $71B?
And......
Every time housing or a $100 Billion number, or so, gets mentioned, that it is spun into "uh-oh, they're gonna monetize" "I told you so"?
I can wait a few years, and then some, unless courts wanna force some action.
Max talking means nothing. Her and sandy t are for show and no go.
Some nice talking points for the media and nothing else. IMO of course.
Thanks board for posting briefs and articles to keep us informed.
I just believe nothing much is behind this talk. Status quo is too much of a favorite for the gov.
The gov took too much. It's owed back. Cancel warrants or sell back for 0.48 pps seeing as how they paid nothing for them. I'm being generous.
Write down Lp. You've been paid.
Alright that's all for now. Thanks for reading.
*Disclaimer
JMO
reparations?
If you pull up advanced charting of Daily Line Display, Volume Bars Lower starting from
June 6th, 2022 through today's date and compare charts of:
FNMA
SPY
Bitcoin USD
The charts look the same. The line flows the same starting high and trailing downward and increase in volume with the downward direction of the display.
Not a coincidence. There is no hidden meaning in FNMA/ FMCC trading lower.
Nothing has changed. There is no insider leaked info. Market isn't onto something.
Compare them side by side by side. Not hard to see. From a similar date onward with increased volume. The three are different but follow the same pattern?
Weird, huh?
That's sarcasm.
Anyway.
*Disclaimer
JMO, but not really because those are the charts, so maybe just part of my post is opinion
I've asked myself that question.
Answer: Much more than zero. But more waiting.
*Disclaimer
JMO
Much more than a "gamble", but I can respect your opinion. I feel that these prices are just an opportunity that doesn't come along often and the drop has very little to do with scotus opinion, but more to do with the state of the economy and market as a whole.
It should not be read into too deeply. It is what it is. The market sank and so did a lot of other investment vehicles. So situations have changed for many. IMO, of course.
Not everyone's timetable is the same. The selling is most likely the same entity and not the market as a whole. The selling is evenly spread out to exit whatever their position might be. Then again someone is buying all that they are selling. So, we'll see.
Here's to the best outcome for all....A just and fair outcome.
*Disclaimer
JMO
Nothing has been "digested" by the "market"
That's why jp are fractions of what they should be. Or is the "market" correct about how bad of an investment jp is as well? Are they right to price jp at 10% 12% par?
The "market" knows nothing. Not everyone is Buffet. Not everyone becomes a billionaire trading.
*Disclaimer
JMO
This was recently posted for a proposed schedule for Kelly case.
If already posted, disregard. I myself just saw it.
End of brief filed 6.22.22
The United States anticipates responding to the complaint filed by plaintiffs, Michael E.
Kelly, et al., with a motion to dismiss. In the United States’ view, the Federal Circuit’s decision
in Washington Federal, along with its decision in a related case, Fairholme Funds, Inc. v. United
States, 26 F.4th 1274 (Fed. Cir. 2022),1 among other reasons, compel the dismissal of plaintiffs’
complaint. Plaintiffs disagree, and intend to respond to the United States’ motion. The parties
have conferred and respectfully propose that the Court enter the following schedule for the
briefing of the United States’ motion:
ACTION DATE
United States Files Motion to Dismiss September 2, 2022
Plaintiffs File Response to United States’ Motion to Dismiss October 14, 2022
United States Files Reply in Support of Its Motion to Dismiss November 10, 2022
I agree on your higher range of pps, but that lower end would be achieved through what? A unreasonable valuation. Plus, the warrants would be a fraction of what they could and should be if used, which if warrants were used would also be crap.
I already laid out a case for $15 low/mid valuation and a near term release.
That's with a 50%dilution after wts(bs).
What are they going to do, realistically?
Release tomorrow? No.
So more money is saved.
Give away $205Billion raise? For what?
If $34Billion is Jp conversion BS, then you sold/ raised $171 Billion to wallstreet?
They're going to pay that much money?
Plus, at the end of this year we would be near $100B + $171B raise?
$272B? I mean, I don't think that time frame is likely and we don't need that much to release.
But..we'll see.
Thanks for your thought.
And....
*Disclaimer
JMO
Thank you. When I post a thought I like to be fair and practical. I don't invest in FandF lightly like some may believe. I know I am not alone in my approach.
In any investment I don't approach things with only the best case scenario in mind because in this area (stocks/ investments) no single person is going to be right all the time on everything they put money on. Impossible. There would be a lot of trillionaires.
But even under not-so-ideal circumstances we all can benefit. That itself is a compromise we should not have to deal with but it is best to always remember life isn't always work out the way it should.
Thanks again for the kind words, Louie
*Disclaimer
JMO
Thank you. Yes. Such pessimism here.
1.8 Billion shares for both FandF x 150pps = $270 Billion Market Cap (very fair)
150pps / 5wts (bs won't happen imo I hope)
= $30 pps after bs wts
$30
$270 - $135Billion( cap raise / jp bs if it happens? it won't and doesn't need to, they can return to market get their par, but whatever)
= $135Billion ( which is a 50% dilution)
OR......
Put another way... $150/ 5wts bs = $30 /2 (50%dilution cap/ jp bs) = $15 pps
Guess what folks gov bs wts would be worth 7.2B shares x $15 = $108 Billion(plenty)
on low valuation and depending on when
There you have it.
And I was being modest with calculations. FnF are worth much more and would climb much higher from that price point.
This whole cship is fraud. And we don't need a cap raise. But we'll see.
Thanks for response.
*Disclaimer
JMO
No sp conversion. Commons are $12 - $20 depending on release date and valuation given. Emphasis on high side though.
Disclaimer
JMO
Or a multi multi millionaire. Most likely.
*Disclaimer
JMO
No it doesn't "bless" anything.
It was ruled based on lies. If based on truth then nothing would be "blessed".
*Disclaimer
JMO
No, they didn't.
They ruled it was okay under the circumstances in which it was implemented.
Guess what?
Those circumstances were lied about. And the man who signed that amendment wasn't authorized to do so.
The supreme court based their opinion on a man with authority signing off on the 3rd amendment and the circumstances being on the up-and-up. Even if the NWS didn't benefit FnF it was okay to the supreme (bs by the way) because at that point the man who signed off was legit and circumstances were legit. For a greater good and to prevent a death spiral and signed by an authorized director.
None of that is true, but at the time of supreme court case, it was true in their eyes.
Just like Lamberth ruling based on ugoletti lies. If ugoletti told the truth, Lamberth would, most likely, ruled differently.
So, this galaxy. Anything is possible. Justice or truth should not be thought of as an impossibility.
Thanks for response. It is just my opinion.
*Disclaimer
JMO
I imagine share prices for all class of holders moves much higher, but very likely could sink back down because of appeals.
I don't think they would sink to where we are at the moment, but things would settle.
The excitement and flood of buying pushes this stock high and fast, but when people get bored, well, you know.
I'm sure the prices will be played with. How can you not see a run in pps for commons and prefs when nws is canned for good? It's basically what was wanted in the supreme court to begin with. They had asked to be reverted back to the 10% and the $27 Billion be returned as tax credits or some form similar. Which is undoing the effects of nws.
By saying we could pay and did pay and you owe us a refund.
And if you recall around the time of the case we moved to $3 for commons, I don't remember the exact price for prefs. But, if we can touch those numbers waiting on a ruling about nws voided. Then if the Nws is voided it would be much higher. Don't you think? I do.
This is all just my opinion and thought. Not advice to anyone.
Thanks for response.
*Disclaimer
JMO
So, looking forward to nws getting it's walking papers.
Then we can get busy with more courts, lawsuits, and delays for maybe 3 years for some real action. Most likely outcome, IMO.
Unless......
Some judge or court wants to step up and do what they're supposed to do.
It could happen. It could.
Couldn't it?
Well 3 years isn't that much longer. I can wait.
This administration shows no signs of getting things done any time soon.
Very little talk and not much meaningful action. Unless you count giving Fannie and Freddie's money away, meaningful.
With elections, progress reports not due until May '23, and all the problems going on in the world and here. This doesn't look like the admin is going to try and cash in anything. They like things the way they are. Gov is in power and controls our moves, delays in court, and spends our money. What's the point in cashing in? By the time they even try to cash in warrants (won't happen imo) they will be met with backlash and/or will have run out of time before they spend it. An attempt of that magnitude will take time that they don't have and need votes on how to spend and they won't have those either. So status quo until new admin comes into play and Sandy T gets her walking papers faster than calamari did.
OR......
The courts?
We'll see, won't we?
*Disclaimer
JMO, remain calm
I showed you that no sp but warrants is $30 because of an undiluted pps of gses in bear market might be $150. After warrants would be $30.
If it takes long enough no cap raise would be needed.
there is the math.
Happy? If values high enough and nws vacated return overage of 27Billion or more. Plus time of retaining. We would be $30 even with a small dilution and warrants.
Happy yet?
$200 pps / 5 wts = $40
$40 - 25% dilution from cap raise in 2/3 years = $30
Happy? Still not?
Well I tried.
*Disclaimer
JMO
Yes, exactly. No one said govt would willingly do these actions. Or like doing them.
These things we speak of are: more or less probable depending on who you talk to.
BUT.......
Not impossible or even very improbable, as most would like you to believe.
That's why it is our opinion and not a prediction of the future. No one knows exactly how this ends or that it would take this long. That's why we are all still here. No matter the class/ type of shares in either company.
Thanks Guido. No luck needed.
*Disclaimer
JMO
I'm saying as in paid already.
Because they have been.
It's very simple. Govt complicates things to make it seem more difficult than it is.
Thanks for responses.
Wrong.
Sp writedown but warrant exercise brings.....
FNMA / FMCC = $15 - $30 depending on release and valuation.
Don't be so negative.
$150 / 5(wts) = $30 / 2 (cap raise dilution bs jp conv bs) = $15
That means they will have stolen 80% from warrants and then another 50% dilution from cap raise/ jp conv.
The longer this drags on, the less cap raise needed. And it looks like they are dragging on.
And $150 is a low/med valuation of this companies because of the bear market at the moment. It should and will be higher valuation in future.
This whole cship is bs. They need to give money back and warrants are probably toast just like sp/lp.
*Disclaimer
JMO
Nothing has happened.
The whole market is falling. So has crypto.
Hmmmm.....
MAYBE IT'S THE THREAT OF SP CONVERSION?
NO! Nothing has changed. Not even the fact that the price dropping brings out all the "I told you so" folks. As if this drop is an indicator of something bad about to happen.
As if mister market know something. Some insider info.
They don't.
I'm still holding. Remain calm. If you don't like the trade then don't trade.
If you want out then get out. But, if you do it because of red days when nothing has actually happened, then I'm surprised you've bought in at all. This is par for the course.
We aren't out of c-ship.
We haven't accomplished anything yet in court, but neither has the govt.
Commons are undervalued by a lot.
BUT......
So are JPS. I don't care if they are up for the year. Until they are par, they are hurting too. Most in commons or pref are in the red. So commons are more in the red? GOOD FOR YOU! WHAT A VICTORY.
I guess you should just walk right now from your prefs. This is a great price according to some.
Commons should tuck tail and walk away
AND
JP should sell and crack open a bottle of red to celebrate 14 years for 10-12% par.
wooo hooo.
Take it easy. Remain calm. It's only my opinion. It is a pretty good opinion though.
*Disclaimer
JMO
no. they didn't.
Didn't the supreme rule nws was okay through of HERA because the belief in the "death spiral" narrative?
Scotus asked if there was anything that could be brought in front of them. Referring to the fact it seemed they could do whatever they wanted.
The lawyer for defense had said, well no we can't just do anything without judicial review. If in a case it was unreasonable, then it could be subject to judicial review.
Saying only in the case of unreasonableness could it be brought suit against their actions. But, because the "death spiral" story was believed, it seemed reasonable. So they let it stand. That's the only reason.
The scotus did not say HERA allows fhfa free reign to do whatever it wants.
What happens when "death spiral" is official proven false in court?
That ruling will not stand because it was based on a lie.
Thanks
So delay delay delay.
Remember july 11 or earliest convenience thereafter?
Then as we approached he pushed it 2 + months.
And said for parties to let him know if they had a scheduling conflict.
And wouldn't you know it? A scheduling conflict.
So they push it another month in addition to his 2 months.
This is great. Thanks. I needed good news. After 14 years this helps to hear it's going to be much longer.
But, seriously, thanks for the update.
Estimate of timeframe for rop ruling?
60 days? 180 days? Less or more?
What more is left to think about?
Does it take 90 days to rule and another 90 days to type?
Thanks for any thoughts
Just listened.
Timeliness. De facto. GIVE ME A BREAK!
The judges knew that those arguments were laughable.
We, (rop plaintiff) , won this.
From listening to it.
I know it.
Plaintiffs know it.
Defendants know it.
Judges know it.
BUT....
WILL THE JUDGES RULE ACCORDINGLY?
Anyone thinking that rop didn't do much better in court is lying to themselves. I don't like the 80% remark at the end, but that is another battle for another day.
When Lamberth comes up and e-mails present proof that the "death spiral" is a lie and ugoletti lied, it's over for them.
That is their whole argument,for nws, being blown to hell.
BUT...
WHO KNOWS WHEN OR HOW THIS TURNS OUT?
How we don't win rop, lamberth, and collins and not think gov /media is corrupt is beyond me if that happens.
The cases in time get stronger for us, not weaker.
They keep digging themselves deeper.
*Disclaimer
JMO
Pps means nothing. Great opportunity. Market dumped.
Here's to a bright green future.
Thanks for audio.
These pps are great for me because pps probably will not move significantly until something substantial happens.
So why wouldn't I enjoy adding at these levels up until a substantial move. Imo it will happen.
My point being why sit at $2 waiting for a big move and try to add when it is better to add at .60 cents before the same move. More shares for the same money.
I own commons, but same is obviously true for jp.
Enjoy that jp can be bought at 10% or 12%.
It's terrific.
If you believe then believe. And I do.
If I bought at 2 and believe it's going higher and my conviction hasn't changed then I should love .60 cents.
Thank you "MR. MARKET".
*Disclaimer
JMO
Well, when playing poker, it isn't always until you lose all your money.
Maybe you go in sit down and walk away at a loss. It's not necessarily all in texas hold 'em.
But yes I understand what you are saying.
My point was that some lose and others win.
We can't all win big all the time.
Thanks for your thoughts. Appreciated.
Here's to you being right. The right thing happens and it would be just as you saw.
So the price will be at these low levels for me to buy at?
Okay. Who should I thank? And in what order?
In order to make money, real money on this, you need people to be clueless. Sadly. We can't all tie in life and all be rich.
Whether it's poker or stocks. If people didn't lose then others couldn't win. That's the game.
I own common, but even for preferred, if everyone got in and crowded the trade then those who own preferred going for 8x or 10x wouldn't get it. Maybe a 2x. Then people would be holding for a couple decades and filing lawsuits for a 2x?
No. So as much as it is horrible to see red. Be greatful maybe to the fact that people are ignorant or scared or stubborn with this play because now we have one.
Both common and preferreds have a play because of other traders disagreeing with us. And not seeing what we see.
Now, it's not to say I wanted gov to hurt people back before c-ship who they sold prefs to and then took the companies through hera. It's not saying it's okay that people's pensions and retirements or investments being taken was good for us. No. I'd prefer to have a play where people play fairly and gov doesn't rob them to present a play for me.
People against people and not manipulation of prices.
I speak about where we are now and have been at least since nws was put in place. What's done is done.
And people knowing or not knowing. It benefits us that people don't know. Everyone knowing = no play.
That's just my thought.
Looking forward to good news as soon as possible.
I will wait if I have to wait. And I probably will have to.
*Disclaimer
JMO
If:
Bought 1000 L x 1.75 FNMA (core)
AND currently pps .67
So down 1.08 per share or $1080 on your core
IF:
Bought and flipped 1000 L or 2000 L for 5cents or 10 cents
Enough times.
Then once you made $1,080 on flipping shares, you'd be even on you core because you'd be green $1,080 on recycled shares and red on core of equal amount.
If you been in FNMA long enough doing this you most likely have profitted so much on flipping then you actually be green overall. Say you flipped for $2080 profits while red on $1,080 core. You'd be green overall by $1000.
And/ or have lowered your average on your core from $1.50. And made profit. It's possible. Not everyone does it but is very real.
These numbers were for illustrative purposes.
But still would apply.
Pardon my post if you were being sarcastic when asking.
But if you were serious then I thought I'd give it a try and explain how core could be red but still be green on trading FnF.
Hope it helps.
The market knows nothing.
Tons of people lose money everyday in the market.
That is the "Market" you are referring to.
Needless to say I disagree with the "Market" and the "Smart Money".
I'm doing just fine with holding commons.
You like prefs. Cool.
I like commons and prefs. I like commons more.
That's me and it doesn't make myself and others stubborn for thinking that way.
But..
*Disclaimer
JMO
Commons are worth $3 - $6 even with sp conversion.
Which will never happen. IMO.
$20 - $30 with no conversion of sp. Just warrants.
$100 -$120 with no sp convert or warrants.
Yes possible. Yes probable. Varies depending on who you ask. When? I don't know.
Guaranteed. Nothing is guaranteed.
Except: I will make money on this investment.
And, it will take awhile.
How much?
When?
We'll see.
Not advice. Just my view.
I'm fine with commons.
*Disclaimer
JMO
Gov has its $ back. Now they need to give extra $ back.
Getting rid of sp without conversion is not a gift to FnF.
Getting rid of warrants without exercise is not a gift either.
It is what should have already happened.
No c-ship should have taken place.
Be thankful if these people don't face jail time.
That would be our gift to the gov.
14years later for proven fraud. Incompetent or Corrupt?
Both. More corrupt than incompetent. There is no way people don't know what has gone on and continues to happen.
And yes, I was referring to the ones who have power to right these wrongs.
Sickening. I'm actually physically sickened.
Anyway
FnF FTW LFG
*Disclaimer
JMO
Pps swings mean nothing unless you want to daytrade.
Nothing happened. Just the same paint drying.
All stocks move up and down every day. It doesn't mean there is news.
Anyone looking forward to 15 minutes of plaintiff arguments? A whole 15 minutes. *It's gonna be epic.
*sarcasm
Everyone one remain calm. Watching paint dry will not make it dry any faster. Who am I kidding? I watch too.
How's everyone's day been going? Good I hope.
*Disclaimer
JMO
IF they care to get this done.
And
They don't do anything that makes sense.
A couple things I wanted to correct in my long post.
If you read the whole thing. Thanks.
I didn't see much posts. So I figured, why not?
*Disclaimer
JMO
The 1st reports disclosing FNMA FMCC financing, pertaining to that rule just released for the purposes of transparency, aren't due until May 2023, correct?
And the information that will be contained in those reports will be needed when coming up with a plan for dealing with release, correct?
So 1 year from now we wait for that info. Then who knows how many months to use that info for a "plan". While lawsuits may still be pending and/ or new lawsuits emerging.
Then, depending on what courts rule or kick the can on issues, will we know how they might plan to proceed.
And if it is very complicated, because the gov made it complicated, how long to put that plan into action?
All while midterms come and go and domestic and global issues persist. And maybe appeals and new lawsuits from something they put into action.
At this point, maybe end of '23 and about year from a new admin and other positions. At which point sandra is out?
That's a ways off for total resolution of this.
Believing that will all happen, even with that timeframe, for 100B, when money is printed electronically, is rough.
That is a lot to get done. That is a lot of ifs.
Moves in price can come from a catalyst during that time, of course. But, I'm referring to THE END.
Unless the gov or courts, courts most likely, want to kick this in high gear and do what is right. ???
Yeah the gov wouldn't get more money because they got enough. But it would be over and simplest thing to do.
Lp write down. Warrants gone unused.
Overage of 27B returned at least. (Based on crazy 10%rate)
Small cap raise based on minimum buffer for release.
Release to big board where jrs and commons collect the true fair value.
And at a specific buffer FnF would be able to pay partial divi until full cap is hit from earnings retention.
That or "THE SECRET PLAN"
Would be very simple. Would drop all lawsuits. Gov avoids jail and saves face. And all that might be said in response to my unlikely proposal is: unlikely and optics.
Unlikely because gov is corrupt. They do anything that makes sense.
True. No argument from me on that.
Optics because of hedge funds and people making money.
True you would hear that and we would make money.
But when does the gov care about optics. And why else would someone invest but to make money. Others can make money, billionaires can make more billions. Now if there might be some money from an investment that has taken well over a decade, it would be wrong? Gov can make AND print money AND spend on what THEY want and that is fine to the public?
Not every FnF holder is ackman.
I'm not. Not even close.
I'm just talking. Just my opinion. But it would be fair, simple, and just. Question is will it happen???????????
*Disclaimer
JMO
True, but it's better than nothing. Even if all you can do is inform and/ or remind people who might read this to not forget what actually happened and is happening now. Why let gov narrative be the only story out there? It's a lie. So the truth should be kept alive and not drowned out by their noise.
Thanks for responding
*Disclaimer
JMO