Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Thank you, I have corrected my post.
Everthing okay except:
I always really like Gary Hindes' newsletters.
It's true that swarm intelligence is rare in the stock market. It is more common to find collective stupidity, fueled by mutual confirmation of mistaken beliefs and unfounded greed. Followed by loss or even total loss.
Capitalism is wonderful if you are on the side of the winners. Remember, the crowd is usually wrong. For example, everyone was pretty sure that Scotus would "deliver justice" in June 2021 and turn things around in favor of shareholders. The opposite was true.
Sure!
It's
Louis The Sun King
Cave 23
119 Carlos Avenue
Donkey Village
Venezuela
(About 15 other fake IDs, all paid for by Pagliara and Ackman, live in caves very close to mine.)
You can choose to howl with the wolves or be devoured by the wolves
Capitalism is something like Darwin's survival of the fittest.
I don't expect a reasonable answer from Carlos. It was more of a rhetorical question.
It could well be the case that they announce the recap/release news on a Saturday and suspend all Fannie and Freddie shares (commons & JPS) from trading the following Monday before the market opens - "to avoid volatily"
Please explain what is negative about Glen Bradford's statement that when private property is nationalized, the government must adequately compensate the former owners?
Here, especially for Carlos, the Spanish version:
Por favor, explique qué hay de negativo en la afirmación de Glen Bradford de que el Estado debe compensar adecuadamente a los antiguos propietarios en caso de nacionalización de la propiedad privada?
I agree that it is impossible to know if there will be a cramdown or not. No one knows, except maybe a few insiders. I also agree that a cramdown is an act that could undermine confidence. But some people here claim that this is not the case because the underwriters of the new shares are selfish and want to get the most for themselves (at the expense of legacy commons). The same goes for the government.
What definitely supports a cramdown is the fact that Calabria claims in his book that Congress considers a write-down of the SPS illegal. This may or may not be true. In any case, it fits perfectly with the FHFA's and Treasury's previous ignorance of existing shareholders.
The government doesn't have to fear a lawsuit over the cramdown because 1) according to Scotus, the FHFA can do whatever it wants, and 2) the most common shareholders will gain from this decision is the loss in share price. That's less than 73 cents per share at today's price. The Lamberth trial also showed that the FHFA only had to pay 38% of the price loss on the day of the NWS announcement for its breach of good faith, even though Lamberth had previously ruled 100%.
Glen Bradford will only be right once: on the day recap/release gets started. And since this is a future event (unknown date), GB necessarily couldn't be right about it yet.
But once the "big event" happens, GB will probably - in retrospect - be right about almost everything he has predicted before.
That's why I think the "he's never been right" argument is nothing but advanced 🦬💩.
It looks like hedge funds and other investors don't think there will be a recap/release in 5 years. What the stock market hates most is uncertainty.
It's because nobody knows when the recap/release will take place. Until then, the JPS are dead money, as are the commons.
FNMAT shares will only reach an equivalent price of about $25. FNMAT themselves will not rise to $25.
The increase in value will be achieved when they the JPS are first converted into legacy commons and then (with a reverse split) into new commons.
This is likely going to happen during a period when all shares are suspended from trading due to recap/release. When you check your account afterwards, there will be no more FNMATs, only new shares (ticker: FNM?).
If the IPO price of FNM is $50, for example, you will find one FNM for every two FNMATs you previously owned.
I am by no means denigrating Carlos, in fact I point out his significant discoveries regarding secondary IDs in my post.
Carlos has made it crystal clear that you are a secondary ID of Pagliara. It therefore makes little sense for you to badmouth Pagliara here in order to conceal Carlos' discovery. Nice try, though
Other "jewels" make up for this.
FNMAI 1.71 +0.046 +2.76%
(It really makes no sense at all to cherry-pick 🍒 the "worst JPS of the day" to claim or "prove" that they are all junk.)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FNMAI?p=FNMAI
Calabria created a Hobsons choice. Yes, I want you out of C-ship, but I am going to make it impossible through the capital requirements, liquidation preference, and no repayment credit on Sr. preferred. And I am going to allow litigation to continue despite knowing all along the…
— Tim Pagliara (@timpagliara) November 8, 2023
I bought more FNMAS cheapies.
One of the key principles of our secret negotiator is that he doesn't talk to himself. Someone (with 20 IDs) could be listening...
The article means that the Fed is ready to create even more mortgage mess (by selling MBS) that will eventually lead to recap/release as a last resort. Thank you, Powell. And please explain it to Yellen too, because she has a hard time understanding economics beyond 101.
There are no fools buying JPS (double entendre intended) 😎
I doubt that (Motley) fools even know what JPS are.
So what happened, why are prices falling?
My explanation: there is a lack of news. When the Lamberth news came in quick succession, even "Motley Fool" took notice and drummed up more suckers to get in. The fools out there are mostly buying Fannie commons because they don't know about the existence of JPS and possibly even Freddie. This has led to the outperformance of Fannie commons.
When the news density drops, they sell because the momentum dries up and there are no greater fools to pass the stock on to. It's that simple.
Either way, there are no winners in the race to the bottom:
https://finance.yahoo.com/quotes/fmcc,fnma,fmckj,fmcki,fmccm,fmcck,fmcct,fmcci,fmckk,fmccg,fmcch,fmccl,fmccn,fmcco,fmccp,fmccj,fregp,fmckp,fmccs,fmcko,fmckm,fmckn,fmckl,fnmap,fnmao,fnmfo,fnmam,fnmag,fnman,fnmal,fnmak,fnmah,fnmai,fnmaj,fnmas,fnmat,fnmfm,fnmfn/view/v1
So what kind of "surprise" for Fannie commons do you expect from the Lamberth ruling?
Fannie commons are getting nothing at all from Lamberth. Why should they be eagerly awaiting that date?