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Thanks for the update, caesare74! Any chance you have an interest in running CTSO's PR division?
Yes, ssmmss, CTSO earnings announcements have been frustrating days for longs. I don't understand how positive news so often seems to drive the price down. But maybe this time, since we've already experienced a 30% cut in the last couple of months, maybe most of the usual drop has been priced in. A surprise/good news announcement would sure be welcome, and based on the relative quiet of the last few months? It seems we're overdue!
Well, then! If CFRA's quantitative model for the United States says SELL, then the hell with all this shouting and tickertape, obey the Masters and sell! And another thing, no more thinking without a license, CFRA's quantitative model for the United States will think for all of us, and some more than others. Hail CFRA, All Hail CFRA!
Agree, nice discount on CTSO right now...and maybe a deeper discount after earnings. I get frustrated with the irrational nature of the market; FDA approval? Price drops. CTSO has a likely 100% safe treatment for sepsis and other major killers with no competition and revenues steadily increasing year after year? Price stagnates and/or drops. CRMD has a non-dilutive stock announcement? Price drops 60%. But like it or not, the market is the only game in town - I jumped into cryptocurrency last year and still feel the burn - so I guess it boils down to the basics, knowing when to buy/sell. But I sure would like to sell CTSO at $50-$100!
Congrats on making some $ on CRMD's rise, OC. I started buying at 0.49 and continued on the way up, avg now at $1.22. But I'm more confident about CRMD's future than ACRX, hope the latter gets the green light in a few days. Overall, though, considering my total holdings are in CTSO, CRMD, and ACRX, it's been a frustrating couple of weeks.
Any thoughts on why CTSO has slumped for so long? I'm tempted to buy more in the $9's, but if past is prologue, CTSO will slump again after the earnings call; historically, it seemingly doesn't matter how good the news is during the call, CTSO's SP always declines in the following week or two before renewing its (hopefully) inexorable climb.
Good stuff as usual, Bertha, thanks!
Agree with your hopes, Burnt. I anticipate some good earnings results shortly, but it does seem like these last few months have been remarkably short of meaningful press releases, i.e., something besides attending the next investor conference. And we also usually hear something from a few posters who have connections with the European sales force, but quiet on that front as well. Finally, just my opinion, but if the sales results are on track and we're closer to break-even - and if the Republicans hold the House - I think CTSO and the market will rebound in the next few weeks. We're seeing some political uncertainty and rising interest rates shiver the broader markets.
Appreciate your input, caesare, thanks!
Hate to be a pest, caesare74, but I value your insight and feedback from the CTSO/Fresenius sales force. Anything to pass on?
Agreed, Mike, OC (like many others on the this board) shares some great info. No guarantees, of course, but I'm always open to learning about other tech and opportunities. CTSO does seem to be the outlier among many US-based biotechs pursuing FDA approval; my knowledge of other biotechs is limited, but I can't think of another company that has decided to first get adoption and financial traction in Europe, then use the data and $ to design an FDA trial(s).
I have no doubt FDA approval will come for CTSO, mainly because there's no safety issues. So if the trial is designed correctly/coordinated properly with the FDA, I'm confident approval(s) will come. That 28 day mortality might be a tough nut to crack because the patients are so sick, but based on all the case studies, I'm sure there's a sound statistical correlation between the filter and reducing mortality. Hospitals and insurance providers don't supply product codes for worthless devices.
So in summary, I just want to be LOADED with CTSO when the first hints of FDA-anything start to be whispered. Given the lack of viable alternatives, and assuming a decent overall stock market, I would peg this as at least an $80 - $100 move in the first month after approval.
Thanks, OC! Can't wait for the day CTSO takes flight.
Hello, orangecat, first - thanks again for the heads-up on CRMD, I will be plowing profits back into CTSO as well. Second, what's your gut on ACRX for the next few weeks; similar potential to CRMD's recent performance? Five years ago, ACRX was at $12. You know your stuff, OC, I owe you a beer!
U-rahh!
Still not concerned about this dip into the $11's, it's not driven by any news. Way more confusing to me was the summer of 2017 when we saw $4 -$5 per share; that was a head-scratcher. But still, even last summer's low price was not driven by any bad news. Long term, maybe even by Nov/Dec, we'll fly, the product is too good and too safe with minimal/zero competition with way too many possible apps.
Everything Idunno just said, +1
The good news is - there's no news. I've been in this company since MSBT and have seen this sawtooth fluctuation over and over and over, it's just people trying to make money. The product works, re-orders are strong and growing, and FDA is another day closer. But I'm not a financial consultant, so the only advice I can give is Buy Milwaukee and Go Brewers!
Orangecat, another question or two:
Right now, the CTSO market cap is about 4x that of CRMD.
I do believe CTSO has a greater potential long-term upside than CRMD,
but CRMD is at least 3 - 4 years closer to FDA approval than CTSO.
So if my assumptions are correct, what do you estimate the peak SP will be for CRMD in the next few months, i.e., before any positive FDA news?
And a similar question for CTSO: any estimate of where we might be by Dec 2018 if our next sales results are in line with expectations?
Lastly, if/when CTSO gets FDA approval in the next 3 - 5 years, any ballpark guess on where the stock would trade?
I know much of this depends on the overall market (hopefully no major correction in effect when good news hits), but as a new CRMD shareholder, I value your opinion.
Thanks!
Thanks, caesare74, I look forward to your post, your insight is much appreciated!
Hello, Caesare74, just wondering if you have any news re: rumored sales results since our last earnings call and/or anything that might be "positively" disruptive. Last I heard, you were going to meet with a Fresenius sales rep?? Any news would be welcome, it seems like a longer-than-normal dry spell re: updates and press releases. Anything that might lift us out of the $12's on the horizon??
Hello, Oranagecat, just wanted to say THANKS! for your tip on this stock on the CTSO board last month. I checked it out and bought a few shares immediately thereafter. I hope some day soon we'll see a similar one-day pop with CTSO!
Light volume, doesn't take much selling to drive it south. Has anyone heard any informal updates from the sales people in Europe, any insight into how the quarter is going or what possible positive developments might soon hit?
EXCELLENT POST, Techxen,
I can only hope the socialized insanity of NICE never infects the US. Or at least no more than it already has. I'm frankly amazed Germany didn't lead the UK down the path to it's own hellish NICE.
Maybe the German socialists try, but maybe they get sidetracked by recurring Oktoberfests.
Zwei bier, bitte!
Thanks, OC. And to your last point, yes, that certainly has been the pattern. I'm not a trader, just a holder, so I obviously believe the trend will be inexorably up.
So what's you're theory, O.C.? Why - with so much potential and no safety downside and no bad news since the sales force restructuring and/or the decision to go FDA Fast-track (which might have been a smart move) - why are we not significantly higher? Wasn't our ATH about 3.5 years ago?
I can't offer any medical insights, but I'm sorry to hear about your daughter and will keep her in my prayers for recovery.
Excellent, thanks Orangecat. I read the study again (not just the conclusion) and understand better what they were dealing with, and that explains the less dramatic/clear-cut results. Perhaps your better point is CTSO's application is not limited to sepsis, though that's been the (seemingly) primary focus since the MSBT era. Now I have to keep up with all the cancer and CART stuff, which is fantastic, CTSO is not dependent on just one pathology or line of attack. Higher highs coming, irrational exuberance pales beside rational expectation.
Anyone seen this post/link on the yahoo board? I don't have a medical background, so I pretty much just jumped to the Conclusion, which I copied below the link to the article. Would love to hear the reactions from any MD's or professors or experienced med tech types:
https://www.karger.com/Article/FullText/492379
Conclusion
"The normal host immune response to infection involves a well-orchestrated temporal and spatial response, coordinated by proinflammatory and anti-inflammatory cytokines. Extracorporeal blood purification using cytokine hemoadsorption therapy has been shown to normalize serum cytokine levels in patients with sepsis and septic shock, although this has not consistently translated to improved patient outcomes. The jury is still out until larger, RCTs are performed to validate the safety and efficacy of this emerging technology."
Of course I speak for no one but myself, but - no problem, Tim, I never thought your downgrade post was meant in an manipulative way; and given the lack of awareness of seemingly so many analysts on CTSO/other stocks, I wouldn't have been surprised if they had given that no-confidence result. So no worries, glad to read your stuff and CTSO is not only saving lives, I believe it's going to soar before the year is out. Long since MSBT days, way too much of my savings invested in this, but I have yet to see a meaningful downside risk. It's safe and it works, we just need continued strong sales, positive clinical study publication results, and the occasional surprising/stupendous announcement.
Question for you Caesare74, and anyone else as well: given our institutional ownership is somewhere around 25%, how do you think CTSO will respond to larger market trends/swings? For example, if the Democrats take the House and/or Senate and the market responds in a certain way, do you think CTSO will get swept up in the trend? Or do you think we are still traded too thinly to be much affected by large market swings.
And another question for you Caesare74, and also anyone else tapped into the CTSO rumor mill in Europe: are you getting any sense of what the rest of this year might look like re: sales numbers or any sort of upcoming announcements/news? Seems like we haven't had a dramatic PR for a long while; have you detected any irrational exuberance among CTSO employees??
You're not alone, clints, I'm deep into CTSO as well. However, with no safety issues after so many years and also patent protection in many possible medical markets, I still sleep pretty well. On the flip side, I have been diversified in many other stocks and done worse, so - depends on the stock, I suppose, depends on timing and luck as well. But if someone could tell me about a stock with a brighter, more secure future than CTSO, I'd like to know!
Thanks for all your informative posts, Techxen and Bert, you guys are great! Your collective time permitting, please keep the updates coming, I have a sense these last 4 mths of 2018 could yield some long-awaited announcements on milestones being met.
Look on the bright side, it's publicity. Some serious investors may check out the company as a result of the article, either skimming it or word-of-mouth, and in my opinion, the more anyone checks, the more they'll be convinced. Bottom line, after many long years since MSBT, the last 3 days have been GREAT, and the moon shines a little bit brighter tonight.
Hello, caesare74, I'm a long time holder since MSBT days and have your posts over the years, Bertha's and psuforlife and raptor's and others as well. You and psu seem to have contacts within the company and I'm wondering if they are optimistic about 2018/beyond. Any potential concerns we should be aware of? Anything not being publicly addressed in the investor conferences or stockholder mtgs? Just wondering if there might be a cause for the negative price action the last few days, because I have seen nothing but good news past and anticipated. Just don't know why anyone would sell at this point.