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I really hate to quibble over semantics
Then don't. If I could've thought of a better way to explain what I meant, I would've. I'll admit, writing isn't a strength of mine.
Snow
I accept your response but I think there still is a ton of fat in the Intel organization
I agree with you on this Tiger and it appears Intel execs do too. Thus the major corporate restructure.
Snow
There's no better way to say this other than in Spanish:
NO MAS!
Snow
Hey rocket scientist, do the math. In 2005 Intel earned $86,440 for every employee employed while AMD earned $16,548 for every employee employed. Just in case you're wondering, is used the following equation (2005 NI / # of employees).
Snow
LOL, no argument there. I think Intel was too arrogant and thought it could enter new markets and take a commanding lead like they have with CPUs. They learned the hard way.
Snow
wbmw,
Don't forget Intel's mobo operations. Intel has a lot of people working reference design mobos for OEM's to enable the launch of new products before their released (or as many on this board believe - paper launched). Don't waste your time with Tiger though. He doesn't understand what it takes to be the lead SEMICONDUCTOR manfucturer in the world. He only sees CPUs.
Snow
I didn't say IMC didn't do anything or it wasn't valuable. The key word I used used was competitive. If you review the recent NGMA benchmarks, you'll see that the K8 IMC doesn't make it more competitive than NGMA.
Snow
Don't have to believe me. Just look at AMD's sales. They had been struggling upwards until Late Q205. Then they took off like a scalded cat. What had changed? Well, they got more design wins and Best Buy and Circuit City started to put them on the shelves and they started to appear in the flyers. In prior quarters, not only were AMD machines scarce in those places, but they would often disappear totally towards the end of the quarters. But that all changed.
IMHO you need to take a statistics class because I don't think you understand how difficult it would be for you to make a correlation between the law suit and AMD's sales. To make matters worse, you use US Retail Sales, which is small portion of the world wide market place, as your correlation data point. To answer, what changed? It was AMD's competitive products. The A64 and Opteron were superior to the P4 and customers bought the superior product. Nothing monopolistic or anything like that.
Snow
So this business decision, apparently made in response to short-term pressure from AMD, is going to have very long term consequences for INTC shareholders.
How many really think AMD had anything to do with Intel's decision? IMHO this was a solid business decision. The comms products were given a chance to prove profitable and they weren't. As a result, Intel made the decision to disinvest in this business.
Snow
Which, oddly enough, didn't happen until after the lawsuit was filed.
Here you go again, retreating to conspiracy theories. Nice!
Snow
Would you expect an AMD employee to say something contrary to this? I think the recent Woodcrest benchmarks speak for themselves. The K8 IMC doesn't provide any competitive benefits until you get into 4+ MP systems.
Snow
mas is moderating this board and he's too busy getting his butt kicked on the INTC board. What's a matter Tiger, you can't handle data driven reason and logic so you want to silence those with a contrary point of view? By the way, have you seen any of mas's posts on the INTC board? He makes WBMW and Chipguy look mild. Some moderator.
Snow
Don't forget that he also claims to have no investment in Intel or AMD. He just does this as a public nuisance--err, service. Strangely, though, the more AMD stock declines, the more shrill he becomes.
I read an article a few weeks back from a reporter that attended the AMD "dog-n-pony" show. The reporter mentioned that AMD management seemed to spend more time joking about how NGMA was merely a resurection of the PIII rather then actually recognizing it as a real and credible threat. As I read through mas's posts, I'm seeing very similar behavior. I'm beginning to think he's an AMD employee. I wonder if this is the resurection of BlackMagicGuy (BMG).
Snow
Do you realize what you're saying? A 25% to 30% mix of high end 65nm CPUs will increase ASPs, margins, and profits. At the same time, these products will be pushing AMD's high end 90nm CPUs into mainstream price points where AMD will have decreasing ASPs, margins, and profits. I predict AMD will be in awash in red ink by Q107.
Snow
But most base their decision on price and features.
Hmmm, tough choice. Do I buy an FX62 based system where the CPU alone costs $1000 or do I wait a few weeks and get a Core 2 E6700 based system and save $500 on the CPU alone? Good luck trying to make up the $500 in lower chipset and mobo prices!
Snow
Snowrider2, let's see the real product and not the intel paid for advertising by Tom's Hardware and Anandtech...Even Intel is Kissing rahul sood's Voodo PC's behind...I'll reserve my judgement until product is shipped and tested by others... How many others do i need to list?
You know, I should've expected this. When Intel is competitive and basically kicking AMD's butt, it can't be because they have bright people and a good product, it has to be monopolistic behavior. Any more conspiracy theories you would like to share? Also, are you going to answer the question and provide links to any site that shows AMD in a favorable lead over Intel's NGMA?
Snow
Tiger,
Based on your responses, I'm convinced Intel could ship twice the volume of NGMA compared to AMD's total capacity and you would still call it a paper launch. You just don't get it.
Snow
Which isn't shipping for another week yet. You're so lost in the noise. I guess mas has done a good job of brain washing you.
And when it does ship, won't account for but a small fraction of Intel's overall units. Which is typical for servers. Between AMD and Intel they probably sell approx 1.5M server cpus a quarter compared to the 40+M of "other" cpus.
Now Conroe is different. But unless there is new information, it won't be but a small fraction of Intel's product mix until next year. NGMA is anticipated to account for 25% to 30% Intel's volume by year end. This isn't a small fraction.
Snow
now your saying AMD product is inferior...in what way?
Why don't you pull your head out of the sand and go to the multiple independent review sites and read the facts for yourself. Choose your site:
anandtech.com
tomshardware.com
aceshardware.com
extremetech.com
tweaktown.com
pcper.com
hothardware.com
firingsquad.com
cnet.com
digit-life.com
Better yet, why don't you provide a link to an independent review site that shows AMD outperforming Intel's NGMA.
Snow
HP doesn't seem to be concerned over the stability of AMD. And seems to be profiting from it.
I think you should change "it" to "them" because HP sells both Intel and AMD based products and I bet you >75% of their computer sales (servers, desktops, laptops) come from Intel based products. I predict that will increast to 85% by Q1 2007.
Snow
The P4 has been at best competitve with the A64 for a while, while sucking a lot more juice. But it wasn't until last year that AMD really started to gain mindshare.
Even with the NetBurst archicteture, Intel was able to hold 75% of the market. Now with a superior NGMA it won't take long for Intel to regain some of the lost market share. Remember, Intel doesn't have to prove itself as a viable supplier like AMD did. Intel's customers know that Intel can supply the right volumes at the right time at the right price with high quality. The only data point in question for the last two years was performance. NGMA removed that roadblock and Intel is set to regain market share. The only advantage AMD now has is in the 4 CPU MP niche market. Good luck.
By the way, I put my money where my mouth is: Bought 530 shares of INTC at $16.86 a few weeks back. Are you still buying AMD or waiting for the bottom?
Snow
Because all the real investors left when AMD started dropping like a rock. The only people left are dilusional fanatics like yourself that believe AMD has an upside.
Snow
Bookmarked. Let's revisit this post at the end of Q3. By the way, how do you like your crow cooked? Rare, medium, medium well, well?
Snow
This is fun! After two years of playing second seat to AMD, I'm enjoying watching the droids foam at the mouth and convulse on the ground. It's like watching The Exorcist: it's scary to think it could be true that someone is that far gone but still entertaining. What a bunch of AMD possessed fools. Now I know why they're called AMDroids.
Snow
Mas and Tiger64,
Whether the ship date is July 5th or July 13th etc.. The point worth noting is that these products are available in the first couple weeks of the third quarter. This means Intel will have the Xeon 5100 series products available ALL quarter. This will not bode well for AMD because AMD makes most of their profit from high margin server products. The Xeon 5100 products are going to put a real dent in AMD's Q3 sales and you should expect AMD's stock price to drop along with their server CPU prices. Good luck!
Snow
Justin Rattner's Blog
http://blogs.zdnet.com/OverTheHorizon/
Here you go mas, it your chance to show Intel how brilliant you are. I would like to see you go head to head with one of Intel's Executive Fellows. Be forewarned, he's not an AMD Stereo Salesman.
Snow
Great! Show me where I can walk into a store buy one right now off the shelf...nothing like delaying another two weeks...7/13/06
Aren't you forgetting these are servers we're talking about? The last time I walked into a Best Buy, Comp USA, or Circuit City, they didn't sell servers. Do you have a local retailer that sells servers?
Snow
Mas,
Plug your nose and swallow, you won't taste the crow as much that way. By the way, the only thing that you've proven today is that "you're right, no matter what!" For the rest of us, we'll let the fact speak for themselves.
Snow
Preliminary Ship Date: 7/13/2006. This is the bottom line which means users won't get Woodcrest in their hands until 3 weeks from now. If they were *really* ready they would already have an initial batch pre-built and ready to go !!
Obviously he doesn't understand Dell's build to order business model. How can you build a server to meet the customer's needs before the customer places their order? The only way to do that is to build inventory of vanilla systems but that's not Dell's business model.
Snow
Laptops do sometimes burst into flames. There are at least 43 reported incidents in the last two years. In 2004 and 2005, Apple, Dell and Hewlett Packard collectively recalled more than 300,000 laptop batteries “due to fire hazards.”
Wow, I never knew this. Thanks for the post. Things that make you go hmmmm...
Snow
Good article. Based on this information, I'm assuming the products that Intel is launching in June (Woodcrest), July (Conroe), and August (Merom) are coming from Fab 12C and D1D. With Fab 24-2 coming on line at HVM volumes, I would expect product from Fab 24-2 to hit the streets around September (90 days). Nice. Just in time for last minute back to school shopping and well enough in advance for Christmas shopping. It would be very encouraging to see high volumes of the higher priced Next Gen products selling in Q4.
Snow
Thanks to everyone for your responses. I learned something today! :)
Scott
ROFL
Snow
I know nothing! :)
Snow
Wow, that's pretty suspect. Is there really anything that explosive in a laptop? What would cause such an explosion? There's something else going on there.
Snow
Duke,
LMAO....classic. Thanks for the laugh.
Snow
highlandpk,
Your notes indicate delivery of woodcrest in Aug with Conroe delivery for early July. Isn't this contrary to the reports from the Inq about Intel attacking the sever market first, then DT and finally mobile? I wonder if it has anything to do with FB DIMM availability?
IMHO Woodcrest volumes will primarily move through OEM channels rather than distributors or resellers. So I expect the distribution channels to lag OEM's on Woodcrest shipments. On the other hand, Conroes are much more likely to move well in both segments.
Snow
The tide is turning:
19-Jun-06 UBS Upgrade from Neutral to Buy
16-Jun-06 HSBC Securities Upgrade from Neutral to Overweight
14-Jun-06 Goldman Sachs Upgrade from In-Line to Outperform
12-Jun-06 First Albany Upgrade from Neutral to Buy
8-May-06 Am Tech/JSA Research Upgrade from Hold to Buy
8-May-06 Caris & Company Upgrade from Average to Above Average
Snow
One of the best decisions I ever made was to ignore mas. Now I only have to read through all the responses to his posts. However, if everyone on this board ignored him then there wouldn't be anything to respond to. mas could then debate with himself all day with out bothering the rest of us. To start ignoring mas, simply click on his name at the top of his post or reply then click on the link title "ignore this poster."
Snow
Of course it has. The only hope AMD and the droids have for next year is on Intel screwing up. Considering what we're seeing from Intel so far, I think it's highly unlikely.
Snow