Learning from experience....
My personal pain barrier was reached yesterday when INDU closed above 10465 and SPX 1210. INDU looks a bit weak as the volume was lower than the preceding down day, but will probably get pulled up by the general market. All the other indices went up with increasing volume. INDU is the easiest index to manipulate. COMPX is strong and could indeed go parabolic. NYA has a good day and has room to go up. Several of the indices have bars breaking the upper bollinger band.
They could easily gap up the market up and not look back if they get some news that can be used as an excuse the buy the market.
For the near-term bear case to remain valid, we need to fall and fall fast below resistance and turn this into a headfake.
Markets can do anything at this point, but I think dip buyers are now confident which gives support. Then there is the seasonality. My problem with that is that if I remember past years right, this is a bit early to have reached lows.
I don't see any technical indicators that would help to decide. We will eventually go down, but it could easily be late December or early next year. I've lost money relying on resistance on weekly or monthly charts, so I would not count on them keeping the indices down. Yes, they work out, but the time frames are long. It is so easy to see in the hindsight what one should have done.
The improbable scenario is that we will not have a seasonal rally at all (just bounce around) or we crash and rally from lower levels. Just going long until end of the year feels too easy. Then there are the increasing MM and specialist short positions. But then again, they might want to take their time in going short and distributing.
Follow the price and be careful....