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While we are discussing Buffet.
The 4th Principle that says "don't hesitate to cut losses" is very important.
Four Lessons From Buffett's Mistakes
Buffett is quick to admit his mistakes, and there are at least four big lessons that investors can draw from them, according to MarketWatch. These are: don't get swayed by emotion, don't underestimate customer loyalty, don't rely too much on numbers, and don't hesitate to cut losses.
Also, Warren invests in Furniture, Real Estate, Insurance, Coca-Cola, and Banking.
But he stays away from all of the "new" industries. Buffet only goes for Companies with long track records.
Did he invest in the internet? Nope. Did he invest in Tech? Nope.
And there is no way he would invest in Cannabis either (rightly so).
OMG!! FEBRUARY 9, 2018!!
Ahhh...those were the "good old days". When ACB was going-up everyday and I believed the BS that Cam & Terry were spewing.
The problem is: I think the Long-Longs still think it is February 2018.
It is not. It is 2 years later: February 2020.
If you look back at my posts, you will realize I figured-out this game around March 2019. That is when I "changed my mind" about ACB.
If you are digging-up old posts, I like the ones where I sold for $10. (Those posts bring back fond memories).
Anyway, investing is a lot like sailing a boat. You can pray all you want for a wind change - but its not going to happen. Instead, you have to adjust your sails to the wind (not visa versa).
So I adjusted my sails and cashed-out of ACB.
I'm not attacking Warren Buffet. But if you know Warren Buffet - you already know:
Warren started investing in 1958.
Dow in 1958 = 439.
Dow today = 29,276
That is approximately a 66X increase. So in absolute dollars, $15M invested in 1958 would be $1,000,000,000 ($1 BILLION) today.
You also know that Warren only invests in companies with LONG, PROVEN, track records. Here are some examples:
Coca-Cola (Established January 29, 1892)
Wells Fargo (Established March 18, 1852)
So Warren buys successful, well established companies and holds them forever. This is the old "buy and hold" strategy.
Here, look at this guy in the link. He turned $1,000 into $2,000,000!! He must be a GENIUS just like Warren Buffet!
https://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-walgreens-2-million-stock-donation-0604-biz-20170602-story.html
If it offends you when I say Buffet gets it wrong most of the time - I was just saying that to make the Long-Longs feel better about the position they are in. But Buffet does get-it-wrong a lot.
For instance, he got it wrong on his first acquisition of that shirt company - Hathaway. Buffet admits it all the time. It is well documented.
He also bet on ONE COMPANY and lost $4 Billion in ONE DAY. I can go on and on about Buffet's LOSSES. But just Google it.
https://www.investopedia.com/news/warren-buffetts-10-big-stock-losers/
https://money.com/buffett-berkshire-kraft-heinz/
https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/08/27/warren-buffetts-biggest-blunder-has-now-cost-him-1.aspx
And when Warren gets it wrong...he loses BIG. Billions BIG.
It looks like ACB is holding $1.56 today nicely.
So what does that really mean?
On Friday, the shorts sold to any sucker willing to pay $1.70.
Today, the shorts are selling to any suckers willing to pay $1.56.
And so on...
The shorts might even let-up for a few days in order to get the selling price a bit higher - but then they will short it down again - making more bag holders.
Companies in this much financial peril are only good for shorting. There hasn't been a meaningful up-tick in this stock in over a year and it's not going to "magically" start up-ticking now.
Nelson and his buddies are going to end-up owning ACB for pennies on the dollar - and they are going to be laughing all the way to the bank.
The Common Shareholder is screwed.
When it comes to where ACB is at today financially - it is not the Government's Fault.
Cam & Terry made their MILLIONS $$$ off of ACB Shareholders and now they are gone. See ya!
But Cam & Terry are to blame for where ACB is at today.
The Government did not make Cam & Terry pay $3 Billion too much for those acquisitions.
Cam & Terry knew about the "Slow Roll-Out" that the Government was planning. It was no secret. Yet, Cam & Terry pushed onward by spending 100's of Millions.
The Government did not make Cam & Terry SPEND all that money on PP&E. I mean seriously - how often do you really think they use that Million Dollar Crane to move plants around?
ACB is a lot like ENRON. This mess is going to take years to unravel and in the meantime - the shareholders are screwed.
Yep. I totally agree.
My OGI Shares are actually up 3% today. I like OGI because they are focused on growing the Company organically (not via huge Mergers) and they are profitable.
Aurora tried to "start at the top". But the best businesses start-out small and build a customer base and following.
I also like IIP's Dividend. If you can get IIP for a good price - that $1/Quarter Dividend is a nice to have coming back.
I'm hoping that IIP drops lower so I can buy more. The lower the selling price of IPP - means the higher the Dividend Percentage Yield.
I was doing my best to tell people what was going on at the $7, $8, & $9 Levels.
However, the Hype was clouding everyone's minds back then.
Steve Wynn always likes to say: In a world full of blind people - the one eyed man is king.
I really think ACB will survive.
But the current Shareholders won't.
Nelson is licking his chops. He is going to get a State Of the Art Grow Facility for pennies on the dollar soon.
Nelson is no dummy. He is going to make himself richer after ACB declares BK.
Nelson will be really "Buying When There is Blood in the Streets".
The Long-Longs think the blood already is in the streets - it's not.
ACB will emerge from BK a great company. With Management that knows what they are doing, no BS Goodwill, and Nelson will own it all.
Billionaires don't become Billionaires by MAKING the Common StockHolders money.
Billionaires become Billionaires by TAKING the Common StockHolders money.
I like the poster that sent me e-mails saying that I "Was the blind leading the blind".
OMG. I was laughing my ass off.
He sent that e-mail to me when ACB was trading at $6.
The funny thing is - I haven't heard from him in a while.
I wonder why?
On Friday, some of the Long-Longs were talking about how great a value $1.70 is.
Okay, I'll sell you some right now for $1.70.
Or was it a great value on Friday afternoon - but not such a great value on Monday morning?
On Friday - Everyone was talking about how they thought ACB would decline more than to $1.70.
But read my e-mails from the weekend.
The shorts are just getting started.
On Friday, they sold to every sucker willing to pay $1.70.
Today, they are selling to every sucker willing to pay $1.58.
And so on...
Yes, I am repeating myself. I have been saying the same things since March.
The WORST part of it all is something no one is talking about.
The Bank cut their lending by $131 Million.
Basically, ACB already spend $218 Million of their $360 Million credit line and the banks said NO MORE.
The Bank's aren't dummies - they know better to throw good money after bad.
Yeah, I'm serious.
How much did Buffet make on that Newspaper Deal Last week? I think he sold for a $100 Million LOSS. But Google it just to be sure.
How much did Buffet make on Kraft/Heinz? Maybe $200 Million Loss? Or worse?
And Buffet doesn't speculate. He knows his Rate of Return before he goes into any deal.
Speakings of Rate of Returns - How much Return is ACB providing to it's shareholders?
Did it ever occur to you that my "Doom & Gloom" E-mails aren't meant for you?
Please ignore them. They are not meant for you to read.
CannaZoid - You have it right. Sit on the sidelines on this.
I'm telling ya. When ACB is trading at 10 Cents a share, the Long-Longs will be thinking that it's going to 20 Cents. They definitely have a Casino Mentality.
Buffet must be the most mis-quoted guy on here.
Buffet said that quote about overall market conditions. NOT individual companies that dilute their shareholders and spend like drunken sailors.
When the DOW was at 8,000 - that was "Blood in the Streets". That is when you buy GOOD COMPANIES (like Google and Apple and Boeing) cheap.
Buffet wouldn't spend a penny on ACB Stock. No way. No way. No way.
Does anyone really think hiring someone from Kraft/Heinz is a good thing?
Do you happen to know where Kraft/Heinz's HQ is located?
Answer: Chicago.
I have friends that worked for Kraft/Heinz in the Aon Center.
OMG - they said it was the most messed-up place to work for ever.
And I think Warren Buffet took a huge bath on that one. But hey, Buffet even gets it wrong most of the time.
Here's one of those "Fake News" Articles from that Rag called the Wall Street Journal...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-failure-of-kraft-heinz-11550803181
Ships that have Declining Revenues in Growing Markets do not correct themselves.
Instead - those ships SINK.
I really think a lot of people on this board think that it is still 2017 and Pot Stocks will double overnight.
It is no longer 2017. It is 2020.
Cannabis Stocks are no longer SPECULATIVE.
We have hard numbers and facts to go by now.
Back in 2017, everyone was talking about the "Green Rush" and "Pot Stock Millionaires"...and the hype made all of the valuations skyrocket and no one had any "legal cannabis" numbers for reference.
But now, Cannabis Stocks are a lot less speculative. WE DO have numbers to go by and those numbers are NOT GOOD.
When an new industry emerges, "the Market" for the new industry is always way over-inflated. They always say "as much as" $50 Billion - and all anyone hears is "$50 Billion".
Anyway, IMO, the days of Cannabis Stocks doubling overnight on hype are over.
In 2020, it is time to invest by the numbers.
CANNABIS PARTNERSHIPS.
The more I think about why the Canadian Cannabis Corporations are losing money - the more I realize that Corporations shouldn't be in this business at this point in the growth cycle.
I'm thinking Partnerships would have been a better vehicle and it would have avoided the WASTE of Billions of Shareholder money.
In a true partnership - no one gets paid unless the Joint Venture is successful.
However, with Corporations, Cam & Terry made MILLIONS $$$ while the Company owners (aka: The Shareholders) got screwed.
EXACTLY!! I totally agree.
You have to look at what made the Illegal Cannabis Industry so profitable in the first place.
In the Illegal Cannabis Industry:
1) NO ONE got paid a dime unless the grow was successful. There are no "Golden Parachutes" or Salaries or Bonuses in the Black Market.
2) There is no "Brick & Mortar" Stores in the Black Market. So every dime made is a dime earned.
3) If the Competition starts to move in on your turf - "eliminate" the Competition.
I mean, how much MONEY $$$ do you think it takes to keep Aurora's 11,000 Square Foot Mega Cannabis store going?
Do you REALLY need 11,000 Feet of Retail Space to sell Gummy Bears and 1/8ths of OG Kush?
ACB is opening-up huge Retail Stores in the age of Amazon.
Do you really think Stoners want to get off the couch and go to the mall for their weed?
Seriously.
Aurora's BK is going to look like Enron.
Yep. Watch for a "Going Concern" Qualification in ACB's Financial Statements.
The Interim CEO can say all kinds of nice things about the ACB Turn-Around, but their Auditors won't let them get away with that "Restructuring BS".
All of this stuff costs MONEY. Lawsuits, Restructurings, Consultants, etc.
And that is MONEY that is not going into growing the business or operations. It is money wasted.
Speaking of wasting money, you gotta love how Cam & Terry wasted sharholder money. WOW!! Those guys could really spend shareholder money.
In fact, I think a lot of Cannabis Growers felt that if they had a License to grow weed - it was a License to PRINT MONEY.
But unfortunately, it doesn't work that way.
Ask yourself this: Cam & Terry spent $3 Billion of Shareholder Money on MedRelief - and what kind of Return on Investment is the MedRelief Acquisition Returning to ACB Shareholders today?
If that is your planned Entry Point - what is your planned Exit Point?
ACB already said that their Revenues are only going to be $60 Million for the quarter.
This fact is scaring a lot of Cannabis Investors away.
Declining Revenues in a Growing Industry????
I mean, if the great, big, wonderful, Aurora Cannabis can only sell $60 Million - then what does that say about the rest of the industry?
Why did ACB's Sales Decline AGAIN?
More stores are open since last quarter - so that can't be it.
I think I heard that same BS from a bunch of Long-Longs when ACB was at $7.
Or did they say that at $6?
Or was it at $5?
Or maybe it was at $4?
You have to realize. ACB is going to DILUTE everyone by $200 Million ATM.
And at these Stock Prices - that is A LOT more shares.
Let me put it this way: For every $1 that ACB gains in Share Price - that is another $1.09 Billion in Market Cap.
Why exactly do you think ACB is going to be worth $1.09 Billion more than it is today?
Actually, it is in no way better than going to Vegas.
In Vegas - you can actually have FUN while they take your money.
Are any of the Long-Longs having fun watching their screens tick RED each day?
Probably not.
Apple had $64 Billion in Revenue last QUARTER.
Or here is a better comparison:
The larger pet products industry is also expanding. In 2013, Americans spent approximately $55.7 billion on pet products, according to the American Pet Products Association. That number jumped to $66 billion in 2016 and is estimated at nearly $70 billion in 2017, with $29 billion to $30 billion spent on pet food alone.
So what is your point?
Cannabis is going to be as big as DOG FOOD someday?
In fact, Dog Food is a better business in every way.
People LOVE their dogs and dogs eat a lot everyday.
Plus, the margins are fantastic because dogs can't complain about how your dog food tastes.
Plus, their is no government regulations on Dog Food.
And last but not least - Dog Food isn't Taxed like crazy.
I dunno about that.
My Innovative Industrial Properties (IIP) shares are kicking butt. Plus, they pay a 4.5% DIVIDEND. So they pay you for holding their stock.
IIP is not a pure Cannabis play though.
It reminds me of the California Gold Miners back in the 1,800's. Almost all of the Gold Mines went broke. BUT - the people that were supplying the picks, shovels, and gold pans made a FORTUNE.
IIP does Sale & Leasebacks to the Cannabis Industry. It is a great way for Cannabis Companies to raise CASH without diluting their Stockholders (imagine that).
Actually, the new CEO of ACB will probably be giving IIP a call as soon as he/she is hired.
And, as the Cannabis Industry grows - so does IIP.
While you are talking about ACB and OREO Cookies...
Cresco Labs is doing this...
https://mindysedibles.com/
Ask yourself this: What would a 23 Year-Old College Co-ed rather have?
An Oreo Cookie?
Or a Chef Mindy Double Dipped Dark Chocolate Covered Strawberry?
Personally, I am dating a hottie. Hint: Go with the Mindy Chocolate Covered Strawberry from CRESCO LABS. Just trust me...
Ya - But did it stay there? That is the question.
There is NO DOUBT this is a Day Trader's DREAM COME TRUE.
But I am not talking about Day Trading. I am talking about trades that last longer than 7 hours, or even a few days.
ACB cannot hold it's gains.
I repeat: ACB cannot hold it's gains.
But it does an AMAZING job of holding it's losses.
TAX HOLIDAYS...
Colorado made some really intelligent moves to knock-out the Black Market.
One of those moves was: A TAX HOLIDAY ON CANNABIS.
Colorado used to have a "Tax Holiday" on Cannabis Sales (I know, I stood in the lines and the savings were substantial).
My friends in Colorado all stocked-up on the Tax Holiday also. I mean, they bought enough for almost a year.
The Tax Holiday was designed to put the Legal Dispensaries on the same playing field as the Black Market. Thus, hurting the Black Market's Revenue and reducing their business.
My point is: If Canada was smart - they would try Tax Holidays (and other reward systems) for buying on the Legal Market instead of the Black Market.
https://www.denverpost.com/2015/06/04/colorado-to-offer-one-day-tax-holiday-on-marijuana/
I don't have too much time on my hands. No one does. But I type SUPER FAST so these post take less than a minute to type. (Just call me efficient).
That said, I studied ACB and their financials and that is why I am so Bearish on ACB.
BUT I do believe there is a market for Cannabis and that there is money to be made if MANAGED CORRECTLY.
There are just way, way, way better speculative plays in the Cannabis Sector than ACB right now. Just Google "Best Cannabis Companies" and OGI, APHA, VFF, and Canopy will come-up.
Their Share Prices are not doing well right now either. However, they have good Balance Sheets to weather the storm. ACB does not.
For example: VFF has a Market Cap of $250 Million and their cost of production is less than 50 Cents a gram. Their CEO runs a tight ship and they've been in business for 30 years. And they have a Vegitable Growing Side Business to fall back on (imagine that).
I'm not endorsing any Cannabis Stock - I AM JUST PROVIDING AN EXAMPLE OF WHAT OTHER CANNABIS INVESTMENTS ARE POSSIBLE.
(Need to put in that Disclaimer or the Long-Longs will attack!!). LOL!!
IMO. ACB is not a buy at ANY PRICE.
Trading ACB Stock at this point is a game for the Professionals - and the people on this board are NOT Professionals.
Here is how the Long-Longs think:
- GEE!! They are restructuring the Company and bringing in a new CEO - all is well now!! Lets get back to $10 so I can get my money back!!
Uh, it doesn't work that way...(read my posts).
- The Long-Longs think $1,70 is a great buying point. But they also thought that at $10, $9, $8, $7, $6, $5, $4, $3, $2...(see a pattern here? It's not hard to see. Hint: It is straight down).
- When ACB is trading at 10 Cents a share, the Long-Longs will think: Gee - If ACB just goes to 20 Cents a share - I will DOUBLE MY MONEY!! Hint: It's not going to happen - you've been played.
STOP being played.
We have NO IDEA what is going on behind the scenes.
But I am willing to bet that it has nothing to do with increasing the shareholder wealth.
Do you really think Nelson want's to make the Shareholders rich? Heck no.
Nelson wants to make Nelson rich.
Or should I say: Nelson wants to make Nelson MORE RICH.
Ever wonder why Nelson has been so QUIET?
I mean, no one has ever heard a peep from him. Not one peep.
That is because Nelson is just sitting back and waiting for ACB to FAIL.
Nelson is no dummy. He could see that Terry and Cam were idiots.
Nelson could also see that Cam & Terry paid about $3 Billion to much for MedRelief and that the Company's Capital Structure could not be saved.
So Nelson just kicked back and waited.
Nelson is waiting for a Bankruptcy Restructuring so that he can bring MORE of his rich buddies in and take the Company private.
Or at least recapitalize the company by WIPING-OUT THE CURRENT SHAREHOLDERS.
WELCOME TO WALL STREET.
Don't worry, ACB will get to $1.50 soon enough.
The Pro's know this company's stock is worth ZERO.
Why is ACB's Stock worth ZERO? Hmmm...Lets see...
- $90M of Revenue...$70M of Revenue...$60M of Revenue...
And oh yeah, that $70M of Revenue last quarter has a $12,000,000 Return Reserve on it. That is a sure sign that ACB Products ARE NOT SELLING.
- Then there is the $200,000,000 AT THE MARKET (ATM) dilution that is comig soon.
- The Company's CEO pulled his Golden Parachute.
- ACB has about 2 months of CASH remaining and their Revenues are declining.
- Either Bankruptcy or a Reverse Split are imminent.
Nelson will get paid in the end (believe me).
Right now, he is maneuvering so that he can either take the Company private someday or cash out big time for "negotiating the deal".
Nelson knows all of the SEC Laws and he has LOTS AND LOTS of Attorneys working for him. That's how Billionaires like Nelson work.
Nelson knows the laws really well so he can come 1 inch away from any indiscretion while taking the shareholder's money.
In fact, I bet Trump knows the Tax Code really well also. Billionaires are Billionares for a reason.
In summary: Nelson, Cam, Terry, will make Millions $$$$$ off of ACB.
But the ACB Shareholders will be screwed big time.
Just like those 10% lay-offs screwed the workers.
The Short-Sellers sold to all the suckers willing to pay $1.70 today.
But don't worry. It will get to $1.50 soon enough.
When the $1.70 suckers dry-up, they will sell to the suckers willing to pay $1.50.
This game is all about HOPE.
The Long-Longs are caught in a Legal Ponzi Scheme and they are all "HOPING" that buying more shares will somehow get them back to even.
But that never works with Ponzi Schemes now does it?
I call this a Legal Ponzi Scheme because this Company needs a constant inflow of CASH FROM NEW INVESTORS to keep a float.
And the NEW CASH coming in DOES NOT get invested in new Equipment or Machinery, NOR is it used to grow the Business. Instead, the NEW CASH is being used to pay the Top Executives their SALARIES.
Sounds like a Ponzi Scheme to me.
Without new investment - ACB is Bankrupt.
Have you seem ACB go up anytime in the past 11 months (while the DOW was setting record highs and profits)???
Well, it ain't going to happen this time either.
ACB is a vessel that is being used by the Top Executives to get RICH. It was always Cam & Terry's plan to use their lucrative Golden Parachutes and retire wealthy. They did a great job of fooling everyone.
In fact, I bet there are still a lot of Long-Longs that are still fooled.
What is going to happen next is:
- ACB is going to issue $200 Million more shares AT THE MARKET (ATM).
- No "good" CEO will take this job. But they might get a good one if they pay him $200,000,000 like they are promising Nelson. HUGE Executive Salaries in a FAILING BUSINESS is not a good sign. Elon Musk takes ZERO $$ in Salary. So did Steve Jobs. ZERO.
- Then, after Nelson hires one of his buddies for the CEO job at a huge salary - they will blame Cam & Terry for the mess ACB is in and then the new CEO will pull his very lucrative Golden Parachute.
- But this is after they use the new $200 Million of Share money for their Salaries.
- Then, after the $200 Million is gone - they will declare Bankruptcy (Cam & Terry's Fault) and Nelson will take the Company Private for pennies on the dollar and he will make MILLIONS.
BILLIONAIRES like Nelson are BILLIONAIRES for a reason. They get rich by simply taking other people's money.
If you don't believe me: What Product did Nelson invent to make his BILLIONS? Answer: He didn't create anything. He takes other people's money instead.
Think about it.
You mean Robin Leach Wealth for the SHORT SELLERS (and oh yeah, Terry & Cam).
This is a simple concept. Let me diagram it for everyone:
Robin Leach Wealth = SHORT SELLERS, TERRY & CAM.
POOR HOUSE = LONG-LONGS
Those MBA Press Releases are sure a bunch of fancy talking BS.
How about this Press Release:
"We FIRED our founder and CEO because he was running a legalized Ponzi Scheme that needed new money from investors coming in constantly so that he could get rich. Now, like always, we have to FIRE the workers while the Multi-Millionaire Boss is pulling his Golden Parachute for $30 Million".
Also, in another Press Release:
"Oh, by the way, the Legal Ponzi Scheme is not done yet. We still have another $200 Million of shares to secretly SELL AT THE MARKET".
No it's not.
Do you even know how Short Sellers Operate?
Short Sellers are SELLERS.
I repeat: Short Sellers are SELLERS.
The goal of any SELLER is got get the highest selling price they can. Then they move down to the "next level" of suckers and sell to them. And so on...
Today, the Short Sellers were selling shares at $1.70 (because the suckers think its a great buy).
Then when all of the $1.70 suckers have dried-up, they sell to the $1.60 suckers (because they think it is a great buy).
Then when all of the $1.60 suckers have dried-up - they sell to the $1.50 suckers.
And so on...
Don't believe me? Just look at the chart!! Don't be a sucker.