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VH....outstanding thoughts and absolutely on track! All the best to you and congrats to your victory!
BR
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Ramsey.....per WEEK!
"From what I have heard Dell is selling FDE.2 equipped laptops as fast as Seagate can provide the drives -- over 20,000 per week"
BR
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Yes from the presentation NEXT week we can expect a PP!
BR
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4x....GREAT find, YES this is the new E-Series, of course with Wave on board. Remember the introduction of the *20 and *30, if I had to guess I´d say we ll see the Latitudes in April/May....
BR
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OT: Can Their Wish Be the Market’s Command?
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/27/business/27every.html?ex=1359090000&en=4bc4311a5d64dccb&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss&pagewanted=all
By BEN STEIN
Published: January 27, 2008
LONG ago and far away, I was a student of law and of economics at Yale. The economics I found fairly easy, probably because the material was the same as what I heard my two economist-parents discussing around the dinner table all my life. (My parents would literally discuss monetary policy with the meatloaf.)
But the law was a total puzzle. Here would be one case that went for the appellant, but just a circuit away, or maybe even in the same circuit, there would be another case — with identical or almost identical facts — that went for the appellee.
I was puzzled. I sat in the Sterling library reading the cases over and over, but still could not get it. Then, one day, out of the blue, my learned brother-in-law Melvin, who had gone to Harvard Law School, asked me if I knew about “legal realism.” I didn’t, but I soon learned.
“Legal realism” said that the whole common-law system of abiding by past decisions was a fig leaf. What really happened, at the appellate level and probably at the trial level, too, was that judges made up their minds based on their predilections, their biases, which lawyer was their friend, what they had for breakfast that day. (I myself love peach Activia yogurt.)
Then, because a case that reached appeal always had some legal merit on each side, the judges, or their very young clerks, picked whatever precedent they wished to support their bias and pretended that they were bound by that precedent and could not have decided any other way.
The scales fell from my eyes, and I went on to finish law school in fine fettle. It was just all show business and personal bias and what’s in it for the judge. That made law school easy.
Time has passed in a big way. But the lessons of legal realism have always been uppermost in my mind when I think about law or about anything else important: Stated reasons are often not the real reasons.
Because I usually write about finance, I have come to believe in the theory of what I would call “financial realism,” or what might more accurately be called “trader realism.” Under this theory, on which I have an imaginary patent, traders can see masses of data any minute of any day. They can find data to support hitting the “buy” button or the “sell” button. They don’t act on the basis of what seems to them the real economic situation, but on what’s in it for them.
Just as a tiny example, years ago a close friend, now deceased, was a trader in London for a big financial house. As he told it, one day I.B.M. came out with stellar numbers. The boss of the trading floor said, “O.K., the guy who’s getting the prize is the one who can make us money selling I.B.M. short.”
So the traders grabbed for their phones and started to put out any bad thoughts they could dream up about I.B.M. They called journalists, retailers, anyone. They sold huge amounts of I.B.M. short. Soon, they had I.B.M. on the run, made money on their shorts and went to Langan’s to drink champers.
As I see it, this is what traders do all day long — and especially what they’ve been doing since the subprime mess burst upon the scene. They have seized upon a fairly bad situation: a stunning number of defaults and foreclosures in the subprime arena, although just a small part of the total financial picture of the United States. They have then tried — with the collaboration of their advance guards in the press — to make it seem like a total catastrophe so they could make money on their short sales. They sense an opportunity to trick other traders and poor retail slobs like you and me, and they generate data and rumor to support their positions, and to make money.
MORE than that, they trade to support the way they want the market to go. If they are huge traders like some of the major hedge funds, they can sell massively and move the market downward, then suck in other traders who go short, and create a vacuum of fear that sucks down whatever they are selling.
Note what is happening here: They are not figuring out which way the market will go. They are making the market go the direction they want.
I know this because I know traders. They’ve told me that they love to sell into fear because fear is bottomless — you can make money selling all day, while buying eventually slows because enthusiasm has limits. The amount of money available to large professional traders is so large that they can overwhelm the market, at least for a while, anytime they want. And they like to do it when the market least expects it.
To my humble eyes, this is what we have seen recently on world markets. Note that the losses in United States markets alone are on the order of about $2.5 trillion in recent weeks. How can a loss of roughly $100 billion on subprime — with some recoveries sure to come as property is seized and sold — translate into a stock-market loss 25 times that size? The answer is trader realism.
The losses in the stock market since the highs of October 2007 are about 14 percent. This predicts — very roughly — a fall in corporate profits of roughly 14 percent. Yet there has never been a decline of quite that size for even one year in the postwar United States, and never more than two years of declining profits before they regained their previous peak.
In other words, traders are sending stocks down by a fantastically larger amount than is warranted by a recession or the losses in subprime. How and why does it happen? As someone said in the movie: “Forget it, Jake. It’s Chinatown.” It’s just Chinatown in trader-land, where money is made and there is no perspective.
So when you see the market gyrating wildly downward and hear some pundit saying it’s because of this or that data or this paradigm or that ratio, remember trader realism. The traders move the market any way they want, any way they think they can make money, and then they whisper a reason to journalists later in the day. Then the journalists print it or say it on television, and the amateurs believe it. And the traders snicker.
These traders, not economists or securities analysts, can turn the world upside down, make governments tremble, give central bankers colitis and ruin the lives of ordinary men and women saving for their children’s college education or their own retirement. In America today, it is the traders, not the politicians or the generals or the corporate bosses, who have the power.
This is what has become of the America of Thomas Jefferson. Lucky for the traders. Sad for the rest of us.
And one thing’s for sure: With the traders running things, it won’t be a good time for amateurs until the traders cry “Switch!” and the market starts to rise.
BR
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GoKite......lets say from these 4.5M notes per Q there are 1.5M Vostros and Inspirons.
Well with some FDE equipped Latitudes and some ERAS, BE should be reached in Q2.
BR
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Doma....hmmmm, you could be right!
"ETS 3.0 introduces support for Windows Vista, providing TPM management and security applications that further enhance Vista's security. ETS 3.0 includes multifactor strong authentication support for hardware-secured Windows login using fingerprints, smartcards, TPMs and passwords. ETS 3.0 also provides data protection, password management, TPM management, and TPM key backup/recovery. ETS 3.0 integrates with Wave's enterprise servers for domain-based strong authentication, for enterprise level key management, and for remote administration of Trusted Drives and TPM systems"
As far as I remember the bold parts were NOT integrated in ETSL!
I wonder what Wave gets from Dell for the full version....
Thanx for the eye opener
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Doma......don´t think so. I wouldn´t not confuse new version numbers with functions offered in the package. I´m sure you don´t, but my guess is that the Ver. 3.0 exists as an ETSL on all TPM machine and ETSPro on FDE machines.
Hoping your guess is better than mine...
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Doma....thanx, good to know. I guess the brand Dell/STX/WAVE is out and need not to be metioned anymore. The opt doesn´t mention the harddisc manufacturer too!
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Alea, Ramsey......I think Ramsey is correct re: free client package.
I guess (please correct me if I`m wrong) that McAfee or Symantec pays to bge bundled on the machine or at least give their package away for free. I hope Wave enters in maintenance/subscription model in the near term...
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Hi Alea!....Thanx for the flowers. Just read Micros reply to me at AB and I´m with him that consumer and enterprise need each other. Your dispute with him is about timing and ressource planning. And there I´m with you:
"The customer of TODAY is the PROBLEM of TOMORROW"LOL and I´m sure Wave´s infrastructure (support) is way too small to handle consumer calls. You have to deal with about 10 IT folks in an enterprise with 10k seats, IMO. The enterprise side has to be developed first, to make enough money to be able to handel the CONSUMER storm!
The sad story is, that two very interesting characters like you and micro (and there are MANY others) can´t talk directly anymore, cause of this MINOR issue. I´d like to see this repaired
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GoKite....at least ONE of those TWO came aboard! NEC....let´s wait for the second to join the party. On one thing I´m with you: Nobody should make a statement like this one, if he can´t influence the timeframe.....
BR
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More on RealNetworks....
RealNetwork's Alleged Infringing of Burst.Com Patents
Helpful........thanx for this insights. As always a MUST read!EOM
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Hi Alea!
Every 1,5 seconds!
1.5M units shipped per months.....
Soon, we´ll ship every second, IMO!
BR
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GoKite......"How is this jump starting Trusted Computing when the FDE drive doesn't leverage the TPM?"
Without a TPM present, the FDE acts as a "pseudo" root of trust IMO. ETDM can of course use the TPM to store/generate the FDE passphrases....(IMO)
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Stoc....thanx for the great report!/eom
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TC...you should know that there is a bundlin (on demand) deal between STX and WAVX.
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Trust........I´m sure you feel no pain, do you?
Yes and every 4 seconds one more unit out there to upgrade!
2008 will add at least 20M more, 40M * average of 20 =800M potential. I guess an average of 20/seat should be the low end
BR
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PP.....100% agreed!/eom
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Snack.....regarding Dell, GTW, NEC we know there is no exclusive deal. Normally the SUPPLIER is granted an advantage of half a year. Unfortunaltely STX didn´t grant Wave this advantage, regarding Secude.
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Alea....sorry, just a hope!eom
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Alea.......agreed on MSFT, re: consumer applications, I´m waiting for delivery of premium content (videos, music.....) with DRM via TPM, for TPM hardened bank transactions and stuff like Ebay......
Danbury chipset will first occur in HighLevel business boards, since the encryption feature in consumer PC is not HOT YET, IMO.
HNY
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DD....Amen and 100% agreed!eom
HNY
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WHATS THAT??? MC, OS, FLOAT?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=WAVX
Market Cap (intraday)5: 126.58M
Enterprise Value (1-Jan-08)3: 64.25M
Shares Outstanding5: 87.30M
Float: 49.46M
TIA
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WD.....Earnings for Q4/hole year 2007 will be in the middle of march. Hoping for 2.5M
Beside sales, I´d look on sales!LOL
No UPSIDE surprise for Q4, Q1 could get interesting since Dells year ends 013108.
HNY
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Unix....what you failed to adress is that for example the Latitude Dx20 series was the FIRST replacement cycle with ETSL installed.
Normally the cycle for notebooks is about 3 years, so we´re just in the middle of the first cycle. Those who bought a D610 in February 2006 will get their new notebook in the middle of 2009. Assuming ETSL is STILL there you´ll have completed the FULL cycle in 2009, so from there EVERY machine has Waves software on it. Similar with the Optiplex line. Regarding dektops, I would assume a cycle of 4 years.
In the meantime we are speaking of THROW-AWAY products! Remember the time when notebooks costed about 5K bucks......
Furthermore I´m awaiting the first consumer machines with TPMs this year. Consumer cycles are similar, so we get a FULL market penetration (From a Dell, STX, NEC, INTEL perspective)somewhere in 2011. Not said that we NEED to wait until 2011 to get to BE LOL, since through the upgrade, maintenance and FDE revenues we´ll get there in 2008.
Happy new year
BR
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Helpful....as always an outstanding post! Thanx for all you do, I wish you and the hole Wave community a happy new year!
BR
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GG.......thanx, already loaded for the ride to 2 at least!
Happy new year all
BR
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Micro......consumer side. Yes you are right when you see a potential in the consumer front. In the future EVERY PC, notebook will be shipped with TPM management software, similar to AntiVirus packages. But there has to be an INSTALLED enterprise base FIRST, to enable TRUSTED services. Once the service providers (bank, online shop etc.) deliver trusted services, the client has to have an activated TPM with software. And Alea, Wave has already the necessary tools to fullfill consumer needs (ETS), which is now shipping on all enterprise models and will be shipped on consumer models in the near future.
So this discussion is of a BOTH right kind. FIRST enterprise, then Trusted services will FORCE the consumer side to have activated TPMs.
Happy new year to all
BR
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JKIRK57......GREAT Find!Thanx/eom
BR
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Danbury, chipset, drivers, tpm, ontopic, or.....
BR
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Stoc....who knows, looking forward to your report. We wouldn´t have expected to see your find then.
TIA
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Thanx Stoc and 4x.........if I remember correctly, it was you, Stoc, who made the pictures of the IBM notebook on a STX booth at CES in January 2006, where we saw the Wave software installed. The crowd attacked you for manipulating and putting a note on the STX booth to take a picture!LOL
Now 2 years later we see the ads and a few months from now, we´ll see the revenues from this relationship.
BR
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Alea, Micro......just when I wanted to reply to Micro re: HP, I saw your post here. YES we´re talking about ENTERPRISE business and not (yet) consumer, and right now DELL is the first choice. I wouldn´t want Dell to concentrated on selling 500 bucks notes to consumers, just to regain #1 in volume. Remember all where the #1 from HP and the #3 from Acer (temporarily) came from: It was the low level-entry-consumer machine, high volume shippment not the expansion of their enterprise business.
I don´t care about the HP figures of their Pavilion series, nor do I care about Dells Inspiron, Dimension or vostro line. NOT YET! It´s the battle between HP DC line and Optiplex, HP XW and Precision and NC vs. Latitude, nothing more at this moment on the enterprise client side. What Dell tries to do is offering COMPLETE SOLUTIONS to enterprises, including security, not only shipping the clients and some servers. And there WE come in play, a security solutions developer which developed the SERVER and CLIENT sided software to manage the NEW security hardware called TPM and more fcollowing roots-of-trust like FDEs.
And YES HP has to look at this space SOON to hold their #1, since over the nex months aqnd years the net based services WILL DEMAND this kind of ATTESTATION to cooperate services....
NOW is the time to show the world WHO is the number ONE, when it comes to the new security paradigm TRUSTED WEB.
BR and best wished for you all
ISPRO
Merry christmas and a happy new year, all!eom
BR
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Weby....FDEs will not become a default as long as you can earn money with them. FDE as standard will occur end of 2009 or in 2010, IMO. But be sure we don´t want FDEs as a standard!
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Keeler......well stated and true, but lost energy re: unix. Some will never or want never understand. Welcome here....
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Doma/24601......to be fair, if we look at the RS only, your observations are right. But if we count the PPs and their effect, the OS now is the same as then. So I guess DIG means that due to dilution the 3 shares then with 50M OS are now 1 share with 50M OS, hard to swallow but true......
BR
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