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You better sell into this strength imho, going down on this and not up...
BOTH cases granted cert. - Treasury AND plaintiffs - and cases combined
So the justices could go with Treasury on god knows what persnickety grounds (and Gorsuch is now also wobbly along with Roberts) -- there is risk here both ways
Rule of Law Guy says pressure on for settlement
On the other hand, a new barrier to administrative action?
We have a long, hot summer coming with a toppy market in pandemic conditions ripe for a crash -- I think I will wait on buyng back in lol... I will wait for a face ripping crash and see what FnF prices look like etc
Happy to have my cash, thank you -- see you in Nov or if we crash the markets... Glad to be rid of this shit tbh, SPG's problems, or Rolls Royce's, are easy to evaluate compared to these losers controlling this situation
Right, PLUS argument in October so ruling when? Another 2 months?
With a SCOTUS ruling looming does this stuff the administrative action? Can RnR move ahead with this looming?
So one is buying the pref across all issues, but I am not convinced this is so great
I dreamed SCOTUS punted till Fall
Federal judges don’t work so how can they go on vacation?
Lamberth retired but came back to be a judge cos it was less work than retirement...
Elizabeth Warren's twitter is not pro-private FnF:
In the middle of an economic crisis, the Trump administration is trying to unravel the progress that was made to stabilize the mortgage market after the last recession. Adam Levitin and Susan Wachter remind us here and in their new book what's at stake. https://t.co/DOoZZhTZM9
— Elizabeth Warren (@ewarren) July 1, 2020
FP = Face Plant?
Exactly, execution risk, political risk and economic risk are now off the chain - and market acknowledges that. Price says market will believe in administrative action only when it sees it
I am out for the moment, I will wait till Fall or news
I would hold “boom” till an actual opinion - could just punt till Fall and sit on it till then...
I will likely be back, but I don;t see why I should sit on the risk without imminent prospect of reward, plus their are better options out there
GL to you too...
Well put about loss of retrospective relief option and generally about the import
I sold today, since I came back primarily for the retrospective option (so much for my SCOTUS reading!)
There is a long, long road till November and there are other better options in the market imho
So I am happy to have my cash and either put it elsewhere, or come back at a better price or when things have clarified positively (if ever)
The political landscape makes the political risk far, far higher than I think people are assuming -- what does a President Pence do to the RnR story, for example?
I do not think it is neutral for pref, since we now know Calabria will be removeable at some point so people are going to take the election/execution risk to be higher -- either they get this done by Jan 15th or a Biden FHFA director will get to have a role in RnR
So Mr. Two Weeks doesn't have any more runway and you also have to listen to his remarks about how weakness in the markets and/or housing could derail RnR... I am not saying you should take those remarks at face value (the man just blabbers after all) but the perception has to be of increase risk
Yeah, no help from SCOTUS except for getting out of the way of Collins En Banc moving back to Judge Atlas -- though we STILL have not got a SCOTUS ruling on FHFA case, right? So even that is yet to happen...
lol, yes, Calabria needs to polish his resume, since his fat ass is unemployed on Jan 15th 2021
Calabria also needs to remember to leave a forwarding address, since we know he won't get it together to clear his desk and files -- "I will get it done in 2 weeks" -- so they can send his belongings on after he is escorted from the building
Will Calabria manage to get RnR done? GULP...
I hope, with two Feb cases, and another opinion comming today that means Seila is today or tomorrow...
Just get on with it -- I have not come to love the Federal judiciary...
Now got FEB case but June medical, only two Feb cases left lol, vet Seila is last one...
Looks like we get MORE opinions today
First opinion today is from MAY - so they jumped the last three cases from FEB, sigh
But more than one opinion today, so we shall see what their game is...
Ok, they added Wednesday too, this week, for opinions, so 2-1 odds of today being Seila -- assuming they finish the Feb opinions first
Stinkie, looks like evens -- two days of opinions and three remaning opinions from Feb session... so could be tomorrow
Lamberth and Collins En Banc - what more does a pref holder need?
Double triple trains! So... yeah, we very screwed
Again with the rally killer...
TRIPLE TRAINS on the weekend? Trying avoid the rally-killing effects much? Lol...
Kthomp, thanks for that confirmation which is what I know HERA says - I would just like to hear what on earth Calabria is going to say to square the HERA statute and what he blabbed about "companies deciding on capital raie"
I have never seen a regulator, or actually conservator or BK judge, behave in this DEEPLY unprofessional manner where they discuss upcoming decisions/issues. Just a really bad idea for the reasons we are seeing, since it promotes faulty conclusions and false appearances about those regulatory and other actions
Fuse, I just know what HERA says, Calabria is not congress and cannot rewrite the law he is so keen to follow -- so until released from Conservatorship it is Calabria who makes the final decisions BY LAW...
BCDE, yes, that is what retrospective relief would be, untangling NWS back to 10% divvy instead... hence repaying cash money over that 10%
Yeah, I read that too, but the oral arguments are very hard to draw conclusions from... so I am still hoping for retrospective relief since it is more consistent with previous judgements seeking to deter agency over-reach
I just hope we get a judgement this week, so that we get back after Judge Atlas
Just ruled in the John Bolton book case our man Lamberth did... said stupid things there, too
Rule of Law Guy suggested they might provide retrospective relief for those who filed cases rather than a blanket remedy — then only Seila gets relief and plaintiffs in our cases get relief. Those guys asked for relief and so does not entail all actions being unwound. Sounds sensible to me...
Rule of Law Guy suggested they might provide retrospective relief for those who filed cases rather than a blanket remedy — then only Seila gets relief and plaintiffs in our cases get relief. Those guys asked for relief and so does not entail all actions being unwound. Sounds sensible to me...
Yes, I would have like the follow up question...
TRCPA, Calabria can say what he likes -- and presumably he means that the companies will choose their options -- but as Conservator, as the clown likes to say, he is BY STATUTE in complete charge of the companies. So Calabria will have to approve, or disapprove, any capital options that the companies "choose"...
So are the companies choosing? Calabria can say what he likes, but he makes the final decision as Conservator
As Conservator, Calabria will also make the decision about how to amend the SPSA agreements between companies and Treasury, hence determining everything else anyway
1 Jan and 2 Feb cases left for SCOTUS, plus we get opinions on Mon, Tues and Thursday, I believe
So this week looks like we get Seila law finally
Fingers crossed for retroactive remedy
... then should see a jump in pref prices and common
The guy is constantly blabbing, so whenever SCOTUS was giving judgements then Calabria would be somewhere blabbing
We can now see the FA's have been coaching Calabria, since now he talks about public and private offerings etc
I still do not believe that the Regulator and Conservator blabbing away about the upcoming financial matters they are in control of is appropriate -- I assume eventually a silent period will apply to Calabria as Conservator but god knows how HERA affects SEC regulations
Yeah, I agree. Someone on here made the wild claim that Philips was fired with no evidence. I think he did the job he came to do -- outline a plan -- and then he went back to a good salary and no politics...
Good for him, only going to get nasty in DC from here through the election
Correct. JPM and MS did not sign-up to any fantasyfest, they are here for buisness -- after election we get SPSA amendment (with NWS stopped, SPS gone and overpayment as DTA), JPS conversion and whatever offering is required... and boom FnF are out under a consent decree pending full release
It is indeed coming, pray Trump does not resign...
Stinkie, next trains are due Monday or Tuesday, not today...
Amen...
Yeah, lets remember the hubris of AIG and Hank Greenberg -- they got pretty much what they deserved... Should have stuck to the insurances business they were so good at
Market volatility is crazy, started this morning 3-5% down on many names I track, then as a group they have flipped to 2% up...
These swings are truly scary. We are going to have a face ripping correction at some point I am afraid