Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
This is awesome! Fraudstein speaks and AVXL shoots up!! Lol!!
What an impotent hack!!
Oh, I do too! I'm just saying let's not get our expectations too high too soon.
It is possible that they may be used for a partnership deal of some sort.
I would urge everyone to not get too far ahead of things with speculation. Just because they want to have the preferred shares available does not necessarily mean that there is any kind of deal in the works right now. I would love for that to be the case, and it is absolutely a possibility, but it's not even close to definite at this point.
They tried to get a yes vote on preferred shares a couple years ago. Based on that it might indicate that they just want to have the shares "in their back pocket" when the opportunity arises to partner.
I'd say we should see 2/3 start before the end of April. My thinking is that Missling has stated that the trial should start "early in 2017". In my opinion "early" would have to be before end of April (1st third of the year). May would be middle of the year in my book.
If my neglecting to put a disclaimer on every opinion I express on a message board causes someone to come to the mistaken conclusion that I have some kind of insider information or superior understanding, then God help them!
And if someone was expressing an opinion that was "out of left field" as you say, and as I have seen, then who's fault is it if someone listens to it?
I'd say the person making investment decisions based on some post they read on a message board.
And let me make clear....all these remarks are IMO...you know, for the easily-swayed newbies.
Or....
The data wasn't ready to be released yet. It took about 3 months to release the 12-month data. The Vienna conference is 3 months later, and maybe it was ready or maybe not.
None of that matters. Data was spectacular at 12 months. If 15-month data was released the pps would not have moved hardly at all, even if it continued to be spectacular. The trial is not designed to prove efficacy and no serious investor is going to give it more than anecdotal, speculative meaning.
The real value of the 2a results is in dose optimization and safety. That was already proven earlier in the study.
All that is important now is 2/3 starting. Once data from that trial starts being reported (if it is good) we will launch.
I already had considered everything you say. My point is that, at this point there is no possibility of the 2a data "going bad" because the trial completed. The extension doesn't really bear at all on the spectacular results that the originally planned trial produced. It was a complete success and that cannot change.
Now we move on to 2/3. As we continue to record more long-term results of the extension trial it will make approval smoother and quite possibly quicker.
Why not?? One of the items you list is:
"Phase 2a – Updates on 104 week extension Alzheimer’s study"
That would be the 15-month data. And the only real reason many were expecting it was because the company had posted an abstract saying they were going to present it.
I don't really care that they changed their mind. The 104-week extension isn't critical to proving 2-73 has potential. They already completed the 2a trial. Then they extended it to a whole year and completed that with fabulous efficacy results (which wasn't a primary endpoint).
Now they're just continuing to collect more data. Going for extra credit sort of.
Need to get the 2/3 study going soon.
You have to believe that things are moving behind the scenes, because they darn sure aren't happening on stage!
No indeed.
But what does your statement have to do with my question?
They haven't said why they want the shares issued. The speculation that the shares are needed to fund a deal is obviously wrong because this isn't something new. It's two years old.
So it seems that the proposal #6 regarding the preferred shares was voted down in 2015 (thanks Karin).
Makes me wonder why they want to propose the exact same thing now. Many here have been speculating that the 10,000,000 preferred shares seem to indicate some kind of "deal in the works", but I have to admit that it seems that the company simply is trying to pass a proposal that failed two years ago.
I doubt that it has to do at all with the investor protection item or any kind of deal.
Seriously...have we issued and /or voted on this before??!
If so, what was the need for those shares two years ago?
I noticed in 2015 the company had a vote at the shareholders meeting in March that involved 10 million shares of preferred stock. Anybody know how that vote turned out, or what the purpose of that vote was?
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1314052/000106299315000736/def14a.htm
The PR said that there would be "Data related to ANAVEX 2-73, ANAVEX 3-71, ANAVEX 1-41" posted concurrently with the presentation at the conference.
The poster time was today from 12am-10am PACIFIC.
Maybe the data will be posted by 10am. I'm not sure what to think if it doesn't show up today as promised only days ago...
Low volume last few days...tells me that Institutions are not blinking. Professional investors are comfortable seeing how this plays out. Looking good AVXL!
That conversation is over. Let's move on.
Absolutely...it will come "round about" those times!
Can't wait.
I'd assume the PR is correct and the times are CET.
I think your times are off an hour.
#1 is at 9:45am-11:45am Thursday.
#2 is at 2:00pm-2:15pm Thursday
#3 is at 3:00am-1:00pm Saturday
All these times are EST.
I'm not saying what they would go for or not. Just saying that the price of the 10 million shares is what will determine the MC. Not the percentage of the revenue from AD. Not at this point in time anyway.
Are you sure about that valuation of $10B?
It seems to me that if we sell the 10 million preferred shares for $1B we would indeed be selling 20% ownership of the company for that cash.
That would make the MC $5B.
The 50% deal on revenue would be beside the point. It would start to matter once the market began believing that commercialization was imminent. In which case the MC would start to reflect a value of 50% of whatever the AD market was expected to be worth at that time.
That "data" pertains to "oxidative stress" not AD.
If Biogen likes the results they are getting and they let that info out... I'd say that we should quickly head north of $15.
It won't.
I've watched and learned for a year and a half. It's not going to go up till something other than continued phase 2a updates happens.
Of course it would be awesome. Unfortunately even half of that list is impossible.
Ridiculous.
Not going anywhere till phase 2/3 starts or we get some other major development.
Continued release of new data from the 2a trial is not going to make any difference.
If they release the data it will be good. It won't by itself cause a dramatic pps increase. Phase 2/3 must get going!!!
Seems pretty obvious to me what's happening. I think somebody was trying to accumulate a large number of shares this morning. I think they're working in collusion with Adam to keep the price from going too high.
Although I really am not reading much meaning into whether or not data is released at the conference, my gut feeling is that it will be released. I think we will see a PR the morning of the first day of the conference as was done in December.
Just my opinion though. Really doesn't matter to me when it happens as long as it is good. Which it should be based on the comments from Missling so far.
Got voting info email from Schwab yesterday.
You forgot Fear and Doubt. How do they play into the conversation??
By the way... I particularly like point #6 that you mentioned. It is the epitome of uncertainty.
Hahaha!!! LOLOL!!!!!
So now the tactic is to try to say that the AD patients in the trial don't actually have AD.
Now I've heard everything!!!
LOL!!!
From the 10Q from 2/7/17:
"At 41 weeks, oral daily dosing between 10mg and 50mg, ANAVEX TM 2-73 was well tolerated, and no patients discontinued treatment due to adverse events. There were no clinically significant treatment-related adverse events, and no serious adverse events."
I can't find where I read it, but recently I saw an article that stated that the reason we have only 25 of the original 32 patients is because 2-73 caused dizziness. The older participants were concerned about possibly falling due to dizziness and decided to discontinue on their own.
Dizziness is a good thing. It proves that the medication is having the hoped for effect in the brain. If there was no dizziness it would be bad news because it would mean the molecule wasn't making it past the blood-brain barrier.
Need to get phase 2/3 under way to stop all the baseless negative conjecture.
What a waste of time. No one is going to talk the longs here out of their shares. Next two weeks will be long-overdue upward movement. After that, the skies the limit! Looking good!!
You say "delay". Patient investors recognize it takes the time that it takes. There has been negative crap circulating around for years regarding AVXL.
LISTEN CAREFULLY: EVEN THOUGH SOME HAVE TRIED TO IMPLY DISHONESTY AND GRAFT ON THE PART OF THE COMPANIES DIRECTORS, NOTHING THE COMPANY HAS SAID OR DONE SO FAR HAS BEEN INACCURATE OR MISLEADING IN THE LEAST. THEIR STATED PLANS HAVE TURNED OUT EXACTLY AS THEY SAID THEY WOULD.
Some counterbalancing perspective:
1) 2-73 trial ready to start, now closer than ever.
2) More 2-73 phase 2a data (15-month) coming very soon and will continue to show amazing results.
3) 3-71 showing signs of beginning trials. 2nd blockbuster breakthrough drug in our pipeline.
4) company optimistic enough about their pipeline that they feel it prudent to defend against any possible hostile takeover attempts.
5) MacFarlane now clearing his schedule to allow him to concentrate on the huge phase 2/3 study beginning shortly.
6) Retts.org confident in AVXL to the point that they put their money on it, helping to fund 2-73 trial.
7) Biogen recognizes the possible implications of what AVXL's success would mean for their bottom line. They are rushing to do DD to determine if partnering/buying AVXL is the right move to make.
8) AVXL now looking to expand operations from Australia and the US to Europe and Asia. Laying the groundwork to become a global corporation.