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S&P500 +30 to 4895, on verge of breaking over 4900. At this rate it will be at 5000 by early February. This market seems to be on steroids. Who knows when we'll finally get a minor 5% correction, let alone a major 10% correction ?
DRCT -.87 to 9.95, I have a few lowball GTC bid placed but none have hit yet ..... might be a good trader in the coming 2 months ahead of earnings probably out in late March. Those numbers will be audited, so could be a risky hold through the report. Scammy indeed, but that doesn't bother day traders.
The Magnificent 7 are driving the market higher although TSLA has become a drag on their overall performance - here's an interesting article -
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/01/22/business/magnificent-seven-stocks-tech.html
NVDA, META
ESOA +.64 to 6.74, breaking over $6 resistance to new all time highs on heavy early volume of 92k .... no news that I could find, but might be a newsletter recommendation or new analyst coverage. I'm still holding a tiny position. Wish I had added on that dip to 5.22 last week !
S&P500 +55 to 4836, breaking above resistance at 4800 to new all time highs .....
briefing -
Stocks are having a strong showing so far today. The three major indices are all trading near session highs, which has the S&P 500 above its all-time closing high (4,796) and tracking toward its all-time intraday high (4,818).
Carryover strength in semiconductor stocks has boosted the broader market. The PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) is up 2.7% with nearly every component trading higher. NVIDIA (NVDA 587.87, +16.80, +2.9%), and other SOX components, reached new 52-week highs this session.
Today's positive bias also stems from favorable reactions to some earnings news, like Dow component Travelers (TRV 208.22, +9.87, +5.0%), which is up 5.0% following above-consensus earnings and revenue.
Interestingly, market breadth is negative despite gains in all the major indices and a 0.3% gain in the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP). Decliners have a roughly 11-to-10 lead over advancers at both the NYSE and the Nasdaq.
Seven of the S&P 500 sectors trade up while four trade down. The heavily-weighted information technology sector (+1.6%) is the top performer thanks to strength in its semiconductor and mega cap constituents. The communication services (+1.2%) and financial (+1.1%) sectors are also up more than 1.0%.
The utilities (-0.6%) and materials (-0.3%) sectors are the weakest performers so far.
Russell down nearly 6% YTD while the S&P is up 1% ..... unfortunately the small caps are underperforming once again after a strong finish to 2023.
NVDA is the 2nd best YTD gainer in the S&P, up an impressive 19% in a mere 3 weeks. Only JNPR is better at 27% due to a buyout.
HALO -.85 to 34.08, surprisingly weak despite the strong guidance for 2023, 2024 and beyond. I just skimmed the presentation, but will give it a more thorough read when I find the time. I continue to accumulate the stock and will be trading around my core position.
SSK - what's your plan for that huge 87% cash position ? Wait for a major correction ? What if the market remains range bound between 4700 and 4800 ? What if it breaks out over 4800 to new all time highs ? Will you go short again ?
I'm actually a bit surprised the market is holding up this well so far in 2024. It's going to take some bad news to trigger a major correction. Maybe earnings season will disappoint ?
GTEC +.36 to 3.34, a nice move on solid volume. This stock has a history of spikes higher, so maybe this is accumulation ahead of a bigger rally.
GEOS +1.07 to 14.16, nice alert yesterday in the high $12's ..... I managed to pick up a few shares under $13 after seeing your post. The energy sector is strong today due to surging oil prices related to the unrest in the middle east.
S&P500 +21 to 4801, now up for the year and above the all time record closing high of 4796 set in Jan 2022. Also nearing the all time intra-day high of 4818.
Wow, I'm glad the brutal 2% dip to start the year is over, LOL.
Producer prices unexpectedly fell 0.1% in December - good news for the economy and inflation.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/12/wholesale-prices-unexpectedly-fell-0point1percent-in-december-in-positive-inflation-sign.html
AAOI -3.45 to 18.15, huge volatility today - high of $21.83, low of $16.70. That's a 31% range on no news ! Great for day traders, but easy to get burned.
S&P Industry YTD performance -
These are market cap weighted so a megacap can comprise a huge chunk of a particular industry.
Biotechnology 5%
Pharmaceuticals 5%
Passenger Airlines 5%
Interactive Media & Services 3%
Health Care Equipment & Supplies 3%
Electric Utilities 2%
Household Products 2%
Office REITs 2%
Diversified Telecom Services 2%
Health Care Providers & Services 2%
Insurance 2%
Diversified Financial Services 2%
Multi-Utilities 2%
Household Durables 1%
Containers & Packaging 1%
Multiline Retail 1%
Banks 1%
Communications Equipment 1%
Air Freight & Logistics 1%
Retail REITs 1%
Tobacco 1%
Semiconductors & Equipment 1%
Hotel & Resort REITs 1%
Software 1%
Food & Staples Retailing 1%
Specialty Retail 1%
Industrial REITs 0%
Health Care REITs 0%
Professional Services 0%
Residential REITs 0%
Beverages 0%
Food Products 0%
Building Products 0%
Construction Materials 0%
Distributors -1%
Industrial Conglomerates -1%
Consumer Finance -1%
Life Sciences Tools & Services -1%
Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure -1%
Leisure Products -1%
Ground Transportation -1%
Media -1%
Electrical Equipment -1%
Machinery -2%
IT Services -2%
Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels -2%
Indp Power&Renewable Electricity -2%
Trading Companies & Distributors -2%
Chemicals -2%
Entertainment -2%
Commercial Services & Supplies -2%
Specialized REITs -2%
Aerospace & Defense -3%
Tech Hardware, Storage & Periph's -3%
Electronic Equipment, Instruments -3%
Personal Products -3%
Capital Markets -3%
Textiles Apparel & Luxury Goods -4%
Metals & Mining -5%
Automobiles -5%
Real Estate Manage & Develop -6%
Construction & Engineering -6%
Energy Equipment & Services -7%
Automobile Components -7%
Earnings season kicks off tomorrow morning with several big banks reporting along with UNH and DAL. It could effect market sentiment.
Bitcoin ETF decision is due out tomorrow -
https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/secs-decision-on-spot-bitcoin-etfs-could-go-a-few-different-ways-96d76589?st=657aidl608inf7p&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/the-crypto-industry-holds-its-breath-in-anticipation-of-the-first-spot-bitcoin-etfs-fed067ec?st=2evvpg823g8fr60&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
btw, 0.1% of my portfolio is in Bitcoin at Coinbase. I've been buying a tiny fixed dollar amount monthly by bank withdrawal for a few years and am up around 60%. I don't think BTC has any fundamental value, but it has a lot of market value because it's so popular. Even so, I'd never want a .5% position, let alone several percent. I'm just in it for fun !
NVDA +3 to 525, yes, all my shares are covered with $475 and $500 calls, so I'll make a roughly 10%+ profit if the shares are called from me at option expirations in Jan and Mar. I'm satisfied with that, but maybe the stock is heading to $600 ?
GTEC investment loss - I'd like more detail but I think that's all the 10Q says about it. It varies quarterly, so hopefully they'll show some investment gains in Q4.
NVDA - I own it since November, but gains capped at $500 -
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=173278129&txt2find=nvda
NVDA +28 to 519, smashing through resistance at $500 to new all time highs ..... the Mag 7 are doing well today.
HALO had a phase 3 drug trial failure in December but minimal revenue impact was expected.
fly -
12/26 - Halozyme price target lowered to $59 from $61 at Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley analyst Vikram Purohit lowered the firm's price target on Halozyme (HALO) to $59 from $61 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares after updating the firm's model following the recent trial failures for subcutaneous efgartigimod in pemphigus and ITP. The key change is the removal of the prior contribution that had been modeled for subcutaneous efgartigimod in pemphigus vulgaris, or PV, after Argenx (ARGX) recently announced that the Phase 3 ADDRESS study did not meet its primary and secondary endpoints and as a result development in pemphigus will be discontinued.
12/20 - Halozyme price target lowered to $45 from $46 at Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs analyst Corinne Jenkins lowered the firm's price target on Halozyme (HALO) to $45 from $46 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm is adjusting its model after Argenx (ARGX) reported that the drug arm of its Phase 3 ADDRESS study of Vyvgart Hytrulo in pemphigus vulgaris failed to show a statistically significant improvement on the primary endpoint of complete remission on a minimal dose of steroids, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
GTEC - thanks, I'll listen to the interview when I get a chance.
HALO +.28 to 35.40, the action has been a bit disappointing so far this year when considering the broad strength in the healthcare sector which as measured by XLV, the S&P sector spider, is up 2% YTD whereas HALO is down 4% .....
But the HALO chart shows support in the low $30's and I'm still accumulating so I don't mind the weakness. My average cost basis is around $39. Covered call premiums aren't so great so I haven't written any so far.
BA -21 to 228, Boeing stock under pressure after cabin depressurization incident -
https://www.wsj.com/business/airlines/the-737-max-blows-another-hole-in-boeings-reputation-14e8ce0c?st=sdx8r1plszcax9u&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
AESI +.20 to 16.73, I also added a few shares today .... overall cost basis is roughly $17.15. Looks like it has solid support in the $16's.
SSK - I'm surprised you're already covering after a mere 2.2% dip in the S&P500 from the high of last week. I get that you don't want to be net short, but I rather think the market has further to fall. It's been a very modest decline so far, but my hunch is that it grinds lower. We're due for at least a 5% to 10% correction, imho. Of course, getting the timing right takes some luck.
SDS, SPXS
CPE +1.25 to 34.90, APA -2.56 to 34.19, I would have preferred a larger merger premium, but with crude oil in the low $70's per barrel, this is probably near fair value. VTLE and SBOW also look like potential acquisition targets. I own shares in all three.
CPE will convert to 1.0425 shares of APA ( Apache Oil)
FNGD +.09 to 6.35, is a 3x leveraged inverse ETN for the 10 FANG stocks which are in correction mode ..... I recently picked up a small position. I think they have further to fall.
FNGU is the bullish counterpart.
S&P500 down 0.6% on heavy profit taking in the Mag7, but the S&P500 Equal Weight is up 0.2% on the day .... might be a harbinger for the year ahead.
HALO +1.24 to 38.20, I added to my position this morning. Another oversold biotech that could have a rebound year in 2024.
CVS +1.74 to 80.70, on a nice run since earnings ..... unfortunately all my shares were called away due to my covered call strategy, but I still made decent profits overall.
Yes, some of the best opportunities for the coming year are last year's oversold losers, including some of the pharmaceutical stocks.
The strongest sectors this morning are energy and healthcare which were underperformers last year.
BMY +.95 to 52.26, bucking the market trend this morning. I just picked up a small starter position. 2024 could be a decent year for the stock after an awful 2023 - one of the S&P's biggest losers.
S&P500 -27 to 4742, a weak start to the new year as expected. Delayed profit taking in the winners undoubtedly a factor. The big question is how big will this pullback be ? Just a trivial 2 or 3% dip ? Or a 5 to 10% minor correction ? Or a 10 to 15% major correction ? Or something even bigger ?
My hunch is a 5 to 10% correction over the next 1 to 2 months, but I could be way off.
SPX
Great job, SSK - thanks for running these contests.
Magnificent 7 two year performance is not so magnificent -
Gain since 12/31/21 -
TKR % Change Cur Price Start Price
NVDA 68% 495.22 294.11
MSFT 12% 375.28 336.32
AAPL 9% 193.58 177.57
META 7% 358.32 336.35
GOOG -2% 141.28 144.68
AMZN -8% 153.38 166.72
TSLA -28% 253.18 352.26
AVERAGE RETURN = 8%
The unexpected bull market of 2023 -
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/what-did-wall-street-get-right-about-markets-this-year-not-much-7d4368fe?st=pgzmgkc2359lmpp&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
https://www.wsj.com/finance/how-i-and-everyone-else-got-2023-so-wrong-637d5f1d?st=jupfp22mzwo580y&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
A magnificent year for the Mag 7 -
YTD -
TKR % Change Cur Price Start Price
NVDA 239% 495.22 146.14
META 198% 358.32 120.34
TSLA 106% 253.18 123.18
AMZN 83% 153.38 84
GOOG 59% 141.28 88.73
MSFT 56% 375.28 239.82
AAPL 49% 193.58 129.93
AVERAGE RETURN = 113%
AAOI -3.57 to 18.30, getting pummeled this morning on no news. Looks like a technical selloff triggered by profit taking. Down 24% from last week's high of 24.08.
Getting back in ???