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Technical analysis: Typically, I am not a huge fan to use technical analysis on a junior biotech stock; but it looks as a cup and handle formation is in the works.
Does anybody either care or have comments? See attached chart!
http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/analysis.pl?symb=AMBS&cobrand=&mode=stock
Where exactly has Gerald indicated that the BD validation results will be released this quarter?
Just a note:
The 8-k includes a European Conference presentation.. and it reflects a LymPro 2016 FDA submission plan. However, LymPro can be commercialized in 2014 as a vitro diagnostic (as long as its CLIA certified...the 2016 FDA submission plan will not create delays in commercializing the product in 2014).
In other words, its a formality once LymPro is CLIA certified.
From another MB (WatsonH):
Ideas and probabilities
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Ok, I am posting after the stock went up, before someone says I move the market. I can't be blamed for everything. Someone mentioned Ihub, I have no interest in posting there, they would block me in seconds. Yahoo already has issued warnings on dismissal of account. Novartis will be at Rodman for AMBS, second to that, expect diabetes info to be released soon after prep and review (I'd guess three weeks max). Call it a courting process as I believe some in the south may say, no pharma will come right in and buy the company as a whole. Look for licensing and royalties off of the platform. Look for Lympro far sooner than end of q3, validation has to be done soon with timing on when it started. There could be a validation announcement with a BD agreement, why, BD has stock, too. Better for all to benefit, rather than just one. After Rodman, expect new analysts, two are there that I am aware of to review the company, also expect a higher target. Fidelity bio-sector will be there scheduled at conference, very good for AMBS, they tend to spend far more in bio that most funds. The financing announcement of 18 months sustained cash is important. It's simple leverage. All mostly baby steps, but every baby step is huge when you're still learning to walk. Stable, slow and methodical will win this race, not massive news all at once. Tempered approaches are key for Gerald to catch the right attention for the right price, he not only has shareholders to please, including himself, he has a product to move forward. Is he looking at 50m or 50b? You should get what I am saying with that statement, MANF has a lot of work to do. Should be a fun next few weeks for everyone. I reiterate, these are my thoughts and projections, they are not a signal to buy, sell or do anything you wouldn't normally do on your own. Less
Market cap. is at $38mm this AM? Fairly valued?
I don't think so!!!
Well spoken!! The sentiment change has occurred for a multiple of reasons:
1) Capital raise (and ability to obtain additional funding) bodes well because the company has the ability to execute and meet its business goals. Hence: Dominion Capital is working closely with the organization to fund their needs respectively.
2) According to Jason Napodano; a paradigm shift would occur once sufficient capital was raised (or more of it obtained)....meaning the company's market value can be re adjusted to reflect the true underlying value. In my opinion, this PPS is now under the radar of WS (many institutions cant own it down at these levels; but I am confident that others can...and are doing so).
3) Q3 is a busy quarter for possible news. Gerald has always been very transparent with outlining key milestones and goals (all of those admitting to knowing stuff that is imminent...you just have to look at the business plan to know there are a multitude of possible news releases due over the next few weeks).
4) Anytime a Major conference is imminent (AMBS will present at Rodman and Renshaw on this coming Tuesday); it creates an opportunity for Gerald (Mgt.) to shine ...although news is never guaranteed ...it makes for a justifiable reason to release news).
5) Gerald has already acknowledged that more Orphan news was due within weeks (it has been several weeks...so deductive reasoning would argue its time or we are almost there).
I feel (just based on gut instincts) that this will be a big week (and possible a very significant turning corner for the PPS...just a speculative guess). GLTA!!!
The upcoming Rodman & Renshaw presentation is on Tuesday, Sep. 10th. Could Gerald launch significant news on Monday (or Tues. AM) to excite investors and draw major attention to the company?
I am feeling really good about next week ..ITS TIME!!!!
MANF - if we can get one Orphan indication partnership (via a Pharmaceutical firm); it will open a floodgate of other opportunities for this molecule. I am surprised their hasn't been much communicated regarding the Parkinsons disease area.
If I remember correctly, we are promised more Orphan drug data in other indications...as it was promised within weeks (see below):
Via the Chairmans blog released on August 14th (this occurred after the Orhpan data for Retinitis Pigmentosa):
"As we continue our pursuit of identifying a variety of orphan indications for MANF, this first success is a major milestone. When data becomes available in the coming weeks on different applications, we will begin to spend some time reprioritizing our MANF pipeline to ensure that we are maximizing shareholder value, while simultaneously ensuring that we are expeditiously moving MANF forward in the various indications where MANF has shown benefit pre-clinically. We intend to rely heavily on not-for-profit funding for certain indications in order to minimize shareholder dilution while maximizing patient benefit as we move MANF forward. The economies of scale created by having a single therapeutic candidate treat multiple diseases cannot be overstated, as development milestones in one area support further development in the others. The Company’s orphan drug strategy outlined in November of 2012 is beginning to bear fruit and we intend to pursue orphan diseases aggressively as we see this as the most effective and expeditious route to getting MANF to patients".
From another message board (this AM):
Updates
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Watch for NGN Capital. Look them up. Bier is a highly regarded player for large capital moves with NGN in the industry. AMBS, like every other bio, is at a pivotal point with a partner, financing, licensing, etc. Becton cannot got to the board or shareholders and simple pay AMBS 200m to buy Lympro (as an example), they would have to do it based on valuation and that equates to very small money. Word is that they want to buy it, not just license it. Imagine if AMBS just said that "we don't need you, we have 18 months of operating cash". AMBS has pivotal news on several fronts, still coming for any naysayers. One was supposed to drop by now and hasn't, I suspect there's only a small filing delay. Novartis would come in with sizeable cash up front to use MANF as a platform for their projects and they would hand pick which opportunities they want to go after. Platforms are easier to get speculative valuation on once they wrap arms around all of the diseases. Get PPS up, get valuation, more to come.
I have to note that simply getting angry at my past posts around things not happening the next day, this is a hopeful person that is doing something off of a message board, please don't do that. Let this be a forum for discussion, not to buy, sell or be manipulated. I have led conclusions to 4 events on here, the 4th is ready to drop, It wasn't anything said yet. Keep in mind that dilution is evident in every bio to thrive, AMBS hasn't even touched the edge of standard dilution in a bio by now, to get a no-short clause and other provisions, like an option to force sales at .10, they are playing with their power now, not being prayed upon with others. The company just gave you all 18 months of operations sustained. The largest concerns on this board were just that and yet there's some a little hesitant. That may be the largest news you will get at the end of the day, it staves off bankruptcy, it also opens the door for AMBS to be in control. Keep that close in mind. Less
I know Gerald owns quite a few shares; but it would instill a lot of confidence if any Insiders were buying the stock at these levels.
The PPS is climbing the wall of worry...stabilizing very well right now. It will reclaim 200 moving avg. at $.0570 (once it settles above...it should be a good buy for further accumulation).
Perhaps Gerald could use Monopoly money to pay the bills. Lol. Also, I guess the board IQ mirrors the stock price (no higher).
SO many here have a lot to learn about biotech investing.....day to day trading (and intraday) is a complete joke. The milestones have been clearly communicated and met (hence, the financing continues .....bridge loans will give the company better leverage and a negotiating position to control their destiny).
Lastly, I don't think a partnership with BD is a slam dunk either (if the right terms don't come along...they will go it alone and keep the fat profits ..and have nobody to share it with...genius thinking).
FYI - Good Alzheimers article (out this AM).
http://news.yahoo.com/promising-tactic-found-battle-against-alzheimer-disease-094503523.html
Many theories running rampant on this board (MM's control the pricing...not Retail shareholders). Todays selloff and lowered price movement was simply attributed to the Financing news(which is very normal for any biotech raising money).
We could churn for a little more (a day or two); but I anticipate that its off to the races next week. As I expect Gerald is ready to light things up here (Usually...bigger news follows financing deals). GLTA!!!
We cleared the runway for BIG news ...think it will happen next week. Enjoy the ride!!!
I want (and hope) that the close is above 200 moving avg....and it ascends upward back above $.06 or $.07 (looking for the $.057 and above today).
Exactly! Its full speed ahead for LymPro. I think whats most important is for Gerald to keep the momentum up in the stock price(so any chance he can reveal more cards and provide portfolio updates would be beneficial for stock holders).
You have different classes of investors: Long term holders, Day traders and flippers, shorts, etc. The Bulls will continue to accumulate and add with any weakness; as the picture here is only get brighter with each announcement (and we have only begun to show the true underlying capability and powerful technology with MANF....it has all the potential to be a blockbuster).
I would happen to agree; I am not aware of any news/data ever being released during a Conference (based on history).
Overall, the bullish story here is very much intact. However, it would make sense to know exactly what the LymPro validated results were...since Gerald is hiring and building up the commercialization team.
From a Seeking Alpha article (based on an interview; posted on a transcript):
"I also think orphan diseases are going to be an important sector. There are a lot of advantages for companies developing drugs for these indications, including being able to charge premium prices and getting marketing exclusivity. If a company has a successful drug for an orphan disease, it's a good investment.
CNS is going to be interesting going forward, especially neurodegenerative diseases. Alzheimer's disease in particular is going to be interesting because of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's recent reconsideration of what it will look at as approvable endpoints in trials. It is looking less toward reduction of beta-amyloid levels and more toward the first early, or prodromal, symptoms of Alzheimer's, before there is a substantial loss of cognitive function".
Does anybody realize that the markets 100+ gain just got wiped out because of the Syrian conflict escalation (and that there aren't any specific reasons otherwise why our PPS is down a penny). Lots of profit taking across the board!!
I am truly amazed how many investors and shareholders just don't get what's going on here (connect the dots). A multi platform drug technology that could be used in:
Disease areas:
a) Parkinsons
b) Diabetes (just received a major. $.5mm grant days ago)
c) Ischemic Heart Disease
d) Retinitis Pigmentosa (Orphan indication already announced)
e) Traumatic Brain injury
f) Cancer
g) Ear (supposedly, this Orphan indication will be announced shortly as well)
A Diagnostic division ...that already has an relationship (alliance_ with Becton Dickinson (for their Alzheimer's based blood test) that should be commercialized by 2014 (over $500mm in potential sales) and has many other Blood based tests for Parkinson's, Breast cancer (in the works) as well.
A strong patent portfolio, and a world class Advisory team with the following backgrounds (Bayer, Novartis, Merck, Bristol Myers Squibb backgrounds along with the Co founder of Amgen ..have been and are still consulting and advising the company on next steps regarding their business plan).
In addition, it entered into a letter of intent to in-license a Phase 2 drug candidate in L-Dopa-Induced Dyskinesia Parkinson’s Disease from an undisclosed third party. Once licensed the Company intends to initiate a Phase 2b clinical trial within 12 months.
Also, it has Dominion Capital who is funding their capital needs and is on board and committed to helping management execute the business plan.
In summary, why would anybody want to sell shares in a company with enormous potential (Market cap only at $34mm....still in its infancy)? GLTA!!!
There are no preconceived notions that a R/S is inevitable. A combination of a LymPro partnership (includes up front million dollar cash investments and maybe one MANF Orphan partnership ...(mininimum investment of $30-$40mm upfront) ....may be enough to get us there.
I highly doubt Gerald has disseminated his intentions to do a R/S to any one shareholder (via phone).
Thanks Zoomboom:
"Multiple Epiphyseal Dysplasia (MED") is a great suggestion and it appears validated already.
Can we leverage MANF into 10 or more platforms (time will tell)?
Outstanding!!! #6 = Cancer
"At $47.7bn, cancer is one of the largest, fastest growing markets in the pharmaceutical industry".
Can you imagine if Gerald announces an Orphan strategy form some areas of cancer (market sizes is incredible).
Wishful thinking...its always fun to dream of the possibilities. I don't see a need for an aggress R/S above $1 (a 5 to 1 or 10 to 1 is more likely). In fact, if Gerald plays his cards right; he can even avoid it.
I do like the $1 target by the end of Q1...sounds reasonable to me. The MANF program has a multi faceted layer of possibilities. More importantly, it sounds like there are 6 potential platforms:
1) Retinitis Pigmentosa
2) Diabetes
3) TBI (Traumatic brain injury)
4) Parkinson's
5) Ischemic Heart Disease
6) ???
Any ideas of the sixth area (some have speculated there are at least six)?
GLTA!!!
I hope Gerald is savvy enough to release news Tuesday AM and try to gap our PPS upward. We know who the true players are who have held their ground through the last six months (and its best to keep the momentum up and dont allow the boiler room crowd back in here once again.
Of course it would be nice to see MJFF fund MANF (for Parkinsons.. at some point); but who cares if Gerald didnt secure monies months from them months ago .....we need positive supporters who see the big picture and enormous potential here.
Can we move on from MJFF (MANF is a multifaceted drug technology platform which will have many opportunities to leverage getting grants ...from many other distinguished organizations).
Fundamentally, the company has always been well on track and moving forward...the savvy investors always knew this and have been accumulating. Gerald has brought this organization forward in great strides...so please stop telling everybody how he screwed up with MJFF (it like driving and looking back in the rear view mirror).
Can someone please post the link to this news?
Intriguing thought....regarding buying at or below $.06 (and be considered very cheap). I would speculate that Fair value today is at least $75mm-$100mm or $.18-$.30 range.
A multi platform drug with MANF and fast advancing Alzheimer's diagnostic product with LymPro (with a blossoming relationship with Becton Dickinson in play); include MANF Orphan indications, other Diagnostic products such as NuroPro (and others), patents and a world class Advisory team (Amgen, Merck, Bayer and Bristol Myers backgrounds).
GLTA!!!
Our PPS Market Cap: is only $27mm (as of today)
Reminds me of Amgen in its infancy; in some regards...the potential for AMBS might be just as big (I believe Amgen was a penny stock or at least it traded well below a $1.....before it struck gold (see attached chart).
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=AMGN+Interactive#symbol=amgn;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
Amgen Market cap today is $82 billion. A far fetched dream? Anything could happen 10-20 years from now (for AMBS).
Gerald is doing a really great job with communication and providing progress updates (by far one of the most transparent CEO's in America). Always follow the CEO (and not the Message board...lol).
Live and learn. :)
This post was taken from another MB early this AM this person has made several accurate projections (before the events have happened). As he or she has previously stated in another post; you need to do your own due diligence before investing in any company:
"Lympro should be commercialized and actually in the hands of providers around Q4 of 14, IMO. The marketing has to come into play unless they launch an early marketing campaign, which requires cash, hence the note mentioned about BD above. Possibly as early as Q3. If you're not into medicine or this stuff, BD or others will want to shelve the technology and buy rights before it even comes close to market, that usually happens 6mos to a 1yr out max in order to facilitate marketing to the feds for funding and payment, think about all of these components, Lympro doesn't make the money when it's launched for you, the shareholder, it will make it much sooner. If you're looking at PPS, the timing will be built in probably after the next confirmation in days to come, you can even review lab records published online. I doubt at this point Gerald will need more cash to cover burn, he's in a good spot. These peer reviews are nice, but they're just an indication of what's out there. I posted the NIH site for those not familiar, you can see the evidence by searching the bio-marker events. I was in a conference in Cleveland, Ohio this past week and I believe it was the Fox Trot, someone needs to get that to Gerald, a female named Stephanie Shaffer (sp) had a severe TBI case with her husband and it's gaining national attention since she's a major newscaster. She is finding large sums of investors and supporters to get to someone who can help. It's actually got some serious traction with thousands showing up to support her cause. This was not why I was there, but it caught my attention. I cannot email Gerald for several reasons. Someone may want to check that out related to the TBI work. You're all going to see something way larger than you comprehend, people selling off now will be sick to their stomachs. People loving the technology will be the happiest they may ever be in life. This peer stuff is just an attention grabber on the heels of major information forthcoming".
Good post!!! However, I believe you will see a MANF Orphan indication IND in early 2014 (much sooner). LymPro looking real good from here!!!
From another message board:
All an opinion, so take it for what it's worth and never buy on anything anyone says on a MB. BD estimate entry for licensing agreement in next three weeks. Trial partner (Pharma) on RP announcement in next couple weeks. Estimate BD will be 30-40mm up front, my guess is 38. BD will NOT be allow to buy, rather to license, just to be clear. Guess is that Lily is not bidding enough. It will cost them less to reduce pricing to comply with governmental reimbursement on Amyvid. Diabetes data out and TBI data out in next month. All stuff to watch for. All rumor in scientific community and they rarely are wrong, 99% don't invest, nor do they worry about it. The RP news was supposed to drop 7/15 on the streets and BD was also supposed to be by now, nothing ever quite works the way one would think and usually hits little snags. I still feel bullish on Lily, the relationship established will just open another door. Less
This persons previous Post:
"My opinion is that MANF will secure several licensee deals with multiple pharmaceutical companies in the months to come. MANF is capable of being licensed in six defined areas that I am aware. I know because I am very familiar with the technology, MANF, encoded by 4.3 Kb gene with 4 exons, it's located on the short-arm of our chromosome 3, if you're into science and medicine that means marvels for humans to come. Two things I guess around your question, financing is a non-issue. They can secure loans from any equity at any moment, the terms are most critical, clearly Gerald is careful with that, credit to the guy for his efforts thus far. Anyone worried about financing should just leave the stock, you need to understand the technology and it's worth to recognize its potential. Lympro "update" news will be announced any day, literally and will change that game seriously for the company. The original intent was always to license MANF and not run their own human trials, now you see this. I spoke about Orphan and Fast Track Designations when I first came on the board. I suspect three P1 trials will kick in q1. If you can license a platform like MANF, the sky is the limit. You start to gain spontaneous revenue streams and residual royalties. Rubinfeld is here for a reason, the master of this execution. Most of these occur at 5-10% for starting bio's. If the valuation of the disease being treated has a market place of 1b, we would suspected AMBS would look at 50-100mm for such a single agreement. Don't look at it like AMBS will see that 10b from RP, look at the licensing. Keep something in mind with that said, this is spontaneous, unlike waiting for trials to come to fruition. There's a licensee fee and then royalties to follow. A shareholder will recognize two pivotal points before the end of August, assuming someone else doesn't come in screaming with more money. That's not where it stops, watch for two more immediate MANF applications in the next few weeks".
To those who worry about financing/funding:
Per the Preferred financing transaction recently announced:
"Amarantus has delivered on each of its stated milestones over the last several months," said Mikhail Gurevich, Managing Partner at Dominion Capital. "We believe this transaction will pave the way for the Company to access more substantial financing and we are very pleased to be able to assist the Company in reaching its full potential."
Of course there will be dilution (and more than likely some more). How else does any young biotech company pay the bills until they have a commercialized product and/or generating revenue from drug sales?
Gerald will communicate a much more significant financing deal (leverage by a LymPro partnership and/or an interested Pharma. partner who wants to invest in an MANF Orphan program). Bridge loans are temporary until that goal is realized. How much longer does the PPS stay down here....we are one major catalyst away from a breakout (in my opinion).
Bottom line: Let the market reflect the proper value; if you are a true bull and have done your due diligence (just let it ride).
Could you post the link please?
The future is very bright; but we still need to resolve our cash position needs before the PPS will rise much further. I really hope Gerald can raise non dilutive funding (to eliminate the uncertainty regarding further dilution).
Dilution is never a good thing. As bullish I as am; its painful (no doubt about it). But you (and many) are looking in the rear view mirror.
Gerald has cleaned up the Balance sheet (a big precursor) before any capital raise is ever going to happen (would you lend $$ to a friend who has lots of liabilities and debts)?
The object and goal going forward; is to keep the bridge loans going (and massive dilution capped) until the non dilutive funding comes along:
1) Grants
2) Licensing deals
3) Partnerships
4) Capital raise (V.C. or institution)
5) MANF Orphan indications could draw a Pharma. partner investment
In summary, its very possible that a Reverse split is coming to uplist the PPS as well. High risk; High reward...either you are in or out (as always; do you own due diligence).