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GE Annual Outlook meeting today, in 13mins at 3PM.
May drive the market.
http://www.ge.com/investors/events/event_id12162008.html
GS at $76. Writing those $70 puts would of been great.
no no, seriously. =P
I do not think it could of been better, cept to say the government will give everyone a $10k best buy giftcard to go to stimulate the economy. =P
earnings surprises are almost never a surprise.
wow, what a move. Targeting 0 to .25%
Because most of the time, there is no earnings surprise and all priced in.
absolutely. =) Gold is up... GS is over $74, GNW up 30%... can be good.
And yes, hte ice tea is great... but even the milk is great, with prices.
We go there once a week, to stock up on milk, ice tea, buttermilk, and other dairy products. cant beat the prices.
didnt know there was a gm plant there? While olden ave did go downhill... not as bad as it could be. =)
they changed it to 2? on all the calendars and things I saw here were 2:15, ,oh well, when it comes it comes. =)
2:15 =P but yes.
yes they are... though I must admit, Halo Farm/Pub is my fav. =)
Thomas Sweets is a bit too expensive.
Realy best bet is to go to Halo Farm in Trenton and buy it there.
GS keeps on flying. Would be nice to perhaps write some cash secured or naked puts... 3 days, maybe around the $65/70 strike.
Princeton here. =) nice to see neighbors here on the board.
nice blog
GNW rising hard and fast... and its not even a porno.
Its just that, in the case of NGD, where $250,000 accounts for the TOTAL options traded in the first 2 hours... kind of... un nerving. =)
Thanks. =P I would be more comfortable holding NGD if I had to chose between GS Puts or NGD. =)
GS too volatile to begin with, but...
GS $70 puts, with $2.20, has to be below $67.80 to break even.
Expiration in 3 days, a little risky, but hence why the premiums.
With the short term selling subsiding, GS reporting 2.1 bil loss, and EPS of -$4.97 and stock is up $4? just imagine what good news will bring. =P
ITM, and Deep ITM options have less time premium than OTM.
So Decay is the rate at which the time premium goes to 0 before expiration. It is not linear, but rather exponential esp in the last month. Just ask anyone with SKF OTM calls at 300.
Deep in the money calls have less time premium, so lower decay that you are dealing with. To top it off, say you got
xyz 20 calls at $6, when xyz is at 25. 5 intrinsic, with $1 time value. if stock goes to 24, or 23, you are down, but have $3 of value still there.
If you have xyz 25 calls, and stock goes to 23 or 24, you lose 100% of your money.
furthermore, if volatility drops, the time premiums will be cut. Ford OTM calls lost a ton of money right after the plans were released. The ITM calls, lost a bit, but not nearly 50% of the calls.
I like NGD more than the GS Dec Puts, sorry. =P
I am referring to the decay, not the risk of when it can blow up and implied vol to drop.
The risk of implied vol going down can happen at any point, however the rate of decay, across the board is fastest in the near term, closest to expiration.
Buy deep in the money options, and you have less risk of it blowing up.
If you are only investing/speculating in OTM options, it can, as you said, blow up at any point in time...
Once again, you just agreed. the premium decay is greatest in the last 30 days across the board.
The decrease in implied vol will also eat into the premium.
Correct, on the OTM, but if the stock swings big to the OTM... otherwise, like you said, its gambling. =P
That is if you are buying in the money options, and dont mind paying exercise fees.
Otherwise, it is best time to SELL or WRITE options as rate of decay is greatest.
perhaps, but the calls are too expensive for my taste. I dont personally follow it, dont know. maybe someone else here can chime in.
GS also declared a dividend....
Wayyy to many others expected alot worse. And everyone and their mother was shorting, buying puts, heck, was down past 4 days in a row.
I think it was overdone on the downside. GS may not be a $100 stock, but is worthy of $75 perhaps.
Inflation, or lack of inflationary data, sparked the extra buying, which may allow fed to ease more without worry. Core CPI flat, even deflationary.
Core inflation down -1.7%, vs expected -1.3
Inflation, or deflationary data that we just got is sparking more buying, giving fed a better chance to lower rates even more.
from the floor.
send me an email, can send you a basic primer that my firm puts out on options.
Otherwise, pick up a book and understand the dynamics of options, go step by step to understand the whole premise before you lose your shirt, like most people do.
Lower rates helps banks... they pay you less, and make more on loans.
Question is how much is priced in, and what if anything fed will announce beyond the fed cut, ie, buying up more mortgage backed or long term treasuries.
Also, GS earnings will play into the picture as well.
Dec 16, 2008 Q4 2008 Earnings Conference Call - 11:00AM EST Add to calendar
Dec 16, 2008 Q4 2008 Earnings Release - 8:30AM EST Add to calendar
It happens.
The futures are pretty much saying 50 bpts, but 75bpts likely.
Keep in mind, Fed is concerned about keeping the patient alive, they will worry about the inflation later.
If GS is a letdown in the am, Fed may cut more than expected in afternoon? who knows.
Its options expiration this week, so expect alot of volatility. I posted an exert from a research report on my covered call forum with full links and all. check it out. =P
Wrote calls or Sold the calls you had?
Could be good move, on alot of these $2.50 or so stocks, the premiums are just fat.
Boeing came out and said that they are raising dividend, hence why the rally.
Bought Jan AUY $9's today. Both the weekly and daily charts looks quite strong.
AUY, Bought Jan 9 Calls, was thinking $7.50's, but eh, =P
Weekly and daily charts looks good. bullish options trades in goldminers.
And they say Ford doesnt build cars people want... In the United States. =P
http://www.ford.co.uk/Cars/Mondeo
http://www.ford.co.uk/Cars/NewFocus
http://www.ford.co.uk/Cars/NewFiesta
PRESS RELEASE: Ford's New Fiesta Global Small Car Off to a Fast Start in Europe; Coming To China...
Symbols: F I/AUT I/XDJGI I/XFFX I/XNYA I/XRUS I/XSP1X I/XSP5X N/DJIN N/DJN N/DJWB N/CNW N/DJPN N/DJWI N/HIY N/MSH N/PDT N/PRL N/TPCT M/NCY M/NND M/TPX P/CMR P/DJCB P/EWR P/TAP R/MI R/NME R/US R/USC
-- New global Fiesta is off to a strong start in Europe in its first two months
on sale, helping Ford's European operations gain market share despite weaker
overall demand. -- The new Fiesta was Ford's second best-selling vehicle in
Europe behind the Focus in November and is attracting a broader range of customers. About half of new Fiesta buyers are choosing the upscale Titanium
and Ghia trim levels. -- The Fiesta, including the new version and outgoing
model, was the top-selling vehicle in the United Kingdom in November among all automakers, capturing 6.2 percent of the total new car market, the Fiesta's
highest market share in the U.K. since 1998. -- The new Fiesta, the first of a
new breed of exciting and refined global small cars coming to market from Ford, is currently on sale in Europe and South Africa. It will go on sale in China, Australia and New Zealand in early 2009 and other major Asian Pacific markets in early 2010. The new Fiesta goes on sale in the United States in early 2010.
COLOGNE, Germany, Dec. 15 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- The new Ford Fiesta - the
stylish subcompact that is ushering in a new wave of global cars from Ford - is off to a fast start in Europe.
The strong early sales of the Fiesta helped Ford's European operations increase market share in November and bodes well for the company as it prepares to launch the global small car in China in the first quarter of next year and in other key Asian markets and the United States in early 2010.
In its first two months on sale, Ford has sold more than 42,200 new Fiestas in Europe's main 19 markets despite soft overall industry sales, making the new Fiesta the second-most popular vehicle in the Ford of Europe lineup behind the Focus compact. The Fiesta, including the new version and outgoing model, was the best-selling car in the United Kingdom in November among all models from all automakers.
"After only two months since its introduction, the Fiesta is already our second best-selling model behind the Focus," said Ingvar Sviggum, vice president, marketing, sales and service, Ford of Europe. "In the U.K., the Fiesta's market share for November was the highest since January 1998 for the nameplate, and the new Fiesta attracted 1,000 more retail British buyers than the previous model in November 2007. This is a promising start for our all-new global model."
Overall, November Ford of Europe sold 95,700 vehicles across its 19 European markets. This was down 21.4 percent versus November 2007, but the company again outperformed the industry by increasing its market share to 8.8 percent, up 0.5 percentage points. The Ford brand is now firmly established as the No.
2 brand in Europe's main 19 markets behind only Volkswagen.
The new Fiesta is attracting a broader range of customers to the Ford brand and customers are choosing upscale features and trim packages, Sviggum said. About 50 percent of new buyers are choosing the upscale Titanium and Ghia versions of the new Fiesta. And half of new Fiestas on the road are equipped with Bluetooth capability, while more than 60 percent were ordered with leather-wrapped steering wheels and 30 percent with privacy glass.
Designed and developed in Europe for sale across Ford's global markets, the new Fiesta is the first in a series of fuel efficient new small cars developed through Ford's global product development process. Its stylish and dynamic flair combines with all the traditional Ford small car strengths to create a confident, contemporary introduction to the next chapter of the Fiesta success story.
The new Fiesta opens another chapter in the story of the popular Ford small car that has sold more than 12 million units since its introduction in 1976. Charismatic and individual, the new model makes major strides in craftsmanship, quality of materials and product choice while continuing to represent Fiesta's traditional strengths of practicality, value for money, agility and safety.
The Fiesta is produced at Ford's plant in Cologne, Germany, for European markets. Fiestas built in Cologne are on sale now in South Africa and will soon go on sale in Australia and New Zealand. Early next year, Fiesta production begins at Ford's assembly plant in Valencia, Spain, for European markets and at Ford's state-of-the-art assembly plant in Nanjing, China, for the Chinese market.
Ford's Auto Alliance Thailand (AAT) facility in Rayong will begin producing the new Fiesta for other major Asian markets in 2010. At the same time, Ford is currently retooling its truck plant in Cuautitlan, Mexico, to build the new Fiesta for the United States and other North American markets.
Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F), a global automotive industry leader based in Dearborn, Mich., manufactures or distributes automobiles across six continents. With about 224,000 employees and about 90 plants worldwide, the company's core and affiliated automotive brands include Ford, Lincoln, Mercury, Volvo and Mazda. The company provides financial services through Ford Motor Credit Company. For more information regarding Ford's products, please visit www.ford.com.
Ford of Europe is responsible for producing, selling and servicing Ford brand vehicles in 51 individual markets. The first Ford cars were shipped to Europe in 1903 - the same year Ford Motor Company was founded. Ford of Europe now employs approximately 73,000 employees. In addition to Ford Motor Credit Company, Ford of Europe operations include Ford Customer Service Division and
22 manufacturing facilities, including joint ventures.
SOURCE Ford Motor Company
/CONTACT: Mark Truby, +1-313-323-0539, mtruby@ford.com, or Astrid Wagner,
+49-221-901-9925, awagne16@ford.com, both of Ford Motor Company
/Web site:
Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
12-15-08 1044ET- - 10 44 AM EST 12-15-08
Leap Covered Call - SWHC - Smith & Wesson
Buy Stock @ $2.63
Sell Jan 2010 $5 @ $1
If Unchanged 61% Return, 56% Annualized
If Assigned 206% Return, 190% Annualized
Break Even - $1.63
38% Downside Protection
Reporting earnings today, the chart is bullish in some regards, and near the top in other views. Longer term, 1 year not going to matter.
With stock so cheap, doesnt make sense for calendar call. I would say this is an investment rather than a play.
You can even do it in an IRA.
Schaeffer's Research outlook.
What the Trader Is Expecting in the Coming Week: Will Triple Witching be a Nightmare Before Christmas?
By Todd Salamone, Senior Vice President of Research
As Wall Street faces another potentially volatile week of trading, investors could be presented with a multitude of short-term trading opportunities. Economic reports including industrial production, building permits/existing home sales, and the consumer price index (CPI) are just a few of the potentially market-moving events on tap for the week ahead.
Other catalysts include a meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), a decision on U.S. monetary policy from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), as well as quarterly earnings reports from Goldman Sachs (GS) and J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM). And, let's not forget that Washington holds the keys to the future of the domestic auto market. Any developments on this front could provide additional twists and turns for the market this week.
The ominously named triple-witching expiration is also on tap this week. Despite its foreboding title, triple witching has actually provided an historical upward bias for the market. From January 2006 through September 2008, there has been a tendency for the market to advance, as the unwinding of bearish positions in the options and futures markets creates a tailwind for the broad market. In fact, 8 of the past 11 triple-witching expiration weeks have been positive.
Full Link
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/observations.aspx?ID=89796