is...itchy
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I completely agree. I have stops set. Good luck to you as well!
Maybe this explains what I meant a little better. If I were to read what I wrote, I would have scratched my head as well. Thanks Scripo!
From ZH...
"So what does this mean in simple English? As Reuters again points out, levels to watch are the large imbalances in favor of puts in Dec SPX put contracts at 2050, 2000, 1950, 1900 strikes
It further writes that "as SPX moves below these levels market makers who are short these puts would be forced to sell spot futures to hedge, which could exacerbate a market selloff."
In other words, selling which begets even more selling, which begets even more selling."
See the last line of my post before... great minds...
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=119251047
I said earlier and Risk agreed, I would not be surprised to see 204's.
This is a pretty big outside day. If you take out that quick spike down from yesterday to 204.80 after the Fed announcement, then that would make 205.32 the low of the day yesterday. In reality, today's candle ate yesterday's candle.
Now, what will be interesting is to see how things go tomorrow. It should be (though not guaranteed) another big red candle, especially since we broke the 140 sma (or I should say "odds favor").
If (and as risk would say, BIG IF) there is a large move to the downside, it can create significant volatility and mass covering of puts sold short (see the JP morgan quant that Pro posted here).
Additionally, if China devalues again tonight, this will lead to a wild ride tomorrow. I'm not saying flash crash or anything like that, because the swings up AND down will be violent.
It should make for a great trading day for those not faint of heart.
Bulls are certainly hung over today after Janet's bitchin kegger yesterday... but the big question is will the bears sift through the crowd of drunken bull girls and give them a little "how's your father" tomorrow.
Dare I say that a test of 204 would not surprise me today?
I think the VXX is going to make a move higher shortly...
It keeps failing to close above 206.15 on the 15 minute... I had a trend line there from the fed announcement yesterday....it's interesting how those support/resistance lines work.... btw, I just closed them out for a .05 loss...
just bought 206 puts (expire tomorrow) @ 1.58...
which way do we go on the Euro close? Oil seems to be back in play weighing on the market. BiPolar market time...
Wow, they closed the 15 min candle dead on flat...
I still don't think they will raise... But if they do, they cut within 6 months.
As per my email...140 sma ... Makes me even more confident where we are heading ;)
Maybe spy needs some 20 lb weight ball bearings with a few quartz of antifreeze, preferably Prestone ... no wait, make that Quaker State..
I just called my mother's aunts sister in laws brothers uncle... and he said "I cont dew eet captun, we just downt huv da powa"
AMZN joining the fang red party soon... Fang selling vortex
202.86 print for 1.5 mil.... Anyone else see that?
Me too bud...
33.47 avg on UVXY ;)
Is that guy still in hiding? I know he got indicted, but did they ever find him?
This is a Hanover Sterling deal... And I am John Fiero
Just waiting on the Book of Face and the Amazon women on the moon to turn red... my 205 puts just ripped over 3
Europe closing...hmmm
yeah, they are way jacked up, but I think they will continue to jack em up this week. I got in the 205 lane for a flip.
just kicked my 203 calls for 67% and just bought 205 puts at 2.75 for a scalp. Nibbled long on more UVXY as well.
I am not sold on today's action, there I said it. Please understand, I am not saying that you guys are at all wrong with your expectations.
I am just saying what I am seeing on the tape.
It has a very sluggish feel (to me) and while a bounce was needed like today, I just think you need to sell into it. I would not be surprised to see today's action wiped out at some point tomorrow. I still don't believe the fed is going to raise, it's just the way I feel, not trying to rain on anyone's parade.
There will be more High Yield guys going under, there is no liquidity there and I feel (though not as severe) the halt in liquidity has the potential to spill over into the equity markets.
I closed out all my puts that were down to 200 on spy, still have Jan 195's and I am dca'd into UVXY common @ 34.75, with the ability to buy more on it heading to 30 which it may very well do.
I just don't think Santa will be as jolly this time of year as he has been in the past.
Just incase I am wrong, I did roll 25% of the profits I took today and bought 203 calls that expire Friday.
I had 13 points of profit. Got stopped now slowly getting myself back in.
I got stopped out of my UVXY stock @ 41.25... just got back in @ 36.05.
Keep an eye on HYG. If it breaks to the lows of the day, spy may not be that far behind it.
I was out for a few hours, just got back.
I was going to mention that... but I honestly thought that would not matter today. Oh well...
Still about 9 points off of it... the big question is how fast we get there. Care to make a call?
the only thing is it is very methodical, almost like a set up to take it higher. I wish my crystal ball wasn't broken... :) PS - check yer mail
Like Jody Foster in the accused Risk ;) LOL
Thank you risk... Imi supplies some fantastic insight and does very well here. This is what we all try to do for each other. You can choose to take part or not. We gladly welcome your input as well Perseverance. No one will knock you for it.
Want to see AMZN and FB go red... right now it's FA holding it up, the NG is, well, ng...
well, I am long the common, so worse case I get stopped out...
I am toying with the idea of writing some for half my position.
yes, I saw that... That is part of the reason why I am long the common. I have a gut feeling they will flush the market out today a few points lower. I have sells up @ 45 on UVXY. Just thinking that a big downdraft is coming. I have some stops in should I be wrong.
I don't know risk, you may be right, but also spy can remain illogical... just like it did in overbought. Something strikes me funny and makes me think a very big drop is coming in spy... that may be the reversal.
Crazy volatility... something is up
I saw that Pro (I check out ZH daily). What I find interesting is the earnings market has more or less ignored the rough seas around it. Deflation in Europe, currency wars, shipping depressed, oil depressed, and now High Yield which the market is normally in parody with (which it is not now). We haven't even gotten to stock valuations. We will, but it will be too late. You and I know it, we are smart enough to look at the seas around it and know to head for shore. Unfortunately, individual investors would rather stay below than ride with the captain up on deck.
Those were my sentiments pretty much. I think it will get to the high 40's low 50's (quickly) and then retrace. I just wanted to confirm what I thought, that's why I wanted your input and Imi's as well. I appreciate it bud. Have a great weekend, 60's in NY today, gotta get my butt outside and enjoy it.