No problem. My numbers vary from Jim's a little in the fact that he's quoting $150 million gross profit and $100 million net profit for Phase I. I'm coming up with $85 net, but I'm in the ballpark. The Company has also implied fiber procurement possibly may be done directy from the source without going through a third party. I believe the MD&A quotes BMSPF as having a Forester on staff which I wouldn't think would be needed if they were buying from a timber company. The Forester could just be a matter of assuring that fiber sources are sustainable according to EU standards. My guess is that one of the new Board members is going to be the Forester for the company since if its the same Robert Matthew's in this profile, he's got quite a resume.


Phillip

Valuation for Biomass Secure Power Inc.
I posted something similar some time back, but I thought I'd update the numbers of my valuation of the Company. The "Sales Metrics" were taken from the "Metrics and Costs of Torrefaction of Wood Wastes" section of this article then converting metric tonnes to short ton (a factor of 1.102).

Sales Metrics
Sales Price= $233.93 Per Ton
Production + Delivery Costs = $149.00 Per Ton
Margins = $84.93 Per Ton

Shares Outstanding = 599,991,908

Phase 1 Only:
Margins on 1 Million Ton/yr= $84,928,571.43
EPS= $0.14
If P/E=5, share price = $0.71
If P/E=25, share price = $3.54

All 4 Phases:
Margins on 4 Million Ton/yr= $339,714,285.71
EPS= $0.57
If P/E=5, share price = $2.83
If P/E=25, share price = $14.15

Unfortunately, the one wildcard in this is the Montreux qualifying transaction will have Montreux issuing new shares which I belive will have some dilution to the final postconsolidated shares. Seeing that Montreux only has 2 million common shares compared to, BMSPF's 599,991,908 outstanding shares, I believe the 1:10 split is to get the companies more on the same par with their outstanding shares. I'll update this again when there is clarity on the final number of outstanding shares.

I don't have level 2. I've often thought about subscribing, but I'm not an active trader so it hasn't warranted the cost.

As far as being the calm before the storm, it seems funny to think that we're one of the few people on this forum now compared to when StockLegends did their writeup on the company generating a flurry of interest from those who probably held the position for less than a week.

I keep doing the math on this company and even if only Phase 1 was successful, this stock should be beyond anything I could have ever imagined. With 3 phases, it still blows my mind. I'm still a bit worried about what the BMSPF Board may do with reverse splits and new share issuances, but I'm factoring in a 25% dilution with the Montreux transaction. I recovered this loss by selling out after the announcement for a profit and accummulating more shares since then at a much lower price to make up for the 25% that I may lose. My only comfort is that the BMSPF Board hold the bulk of the shares so that will inhibit them doing anything "too crazy" when it comes to dilution.

Phillip

Volume is up. Something must be in the air. Fridays usually have zero volume. Port of Baton Rouge has a committee meeting on 9/19/13. I wonder if anything will be on the agenda.

Phillip

I emailed him on another issue regarding Drax's delay associated with Army Corps of Engineers permitting, but not this one. Today would have been a good day to do it since we have a holiday here in the US and Jim's apparently working. Then again he's returned emails in the past on the weekend so I'm presuming he doesn't limit his work hours to weekdays.

Phillip

Here's another thought . . . What "IF" Drax was to use the BMSPF torrified pellet technology at the pellet plants that they have under construction. This would avoid the need for covered storage that they currently require and a BMSPF license would generate additional revenue for the company. If Drax and BMSPF do have some form of partnership, this would make perfect sense.

Phillip

I'm hanging. :) I can't blame them for not issuing a PR every time something "might" happen and being subject to disclosing terms of any agreements that "might" exist. The fact that they don't have a constant stream of PRs is one of the reasons I have more faith that this isn't just a pump and dump scheme. Anything that is as "BIG" as I've speculated in the past would be rightfully keep secret until the appropriate time. It doesn't mean that I can't snoop to discover these secrets though through other means like Board minutes. :) This is just doing wise due dilligence before making or retaining an investment. If I hadn't told Jim I would stop contacting the Port staff, I would make a public information request for the Agenda Memos.

Phillip

Yea, but too bad the Port has crummy minutes to their Board Meetings. They just uploaded them and don't tell us anything that was discussed at their last Board meeting.

Agenda Item 11:
http://www.portgbr.com/media/user/meetings/CommMtgMinutes%2007-25-13.pdf

Phillip

If I had to make a wild guess as to when news will occur, I'd say it would be shortly after 8/22/13. Just speculation based on information that may become public information at an upcoming Board meeting . . .

Phillip

Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but I choose to base my opinion not on what the company says so much, but what others say that don't have a position or vested interest in the company. My opinion is that they do have something BIG going on or they wouldn't be flying to Louisiana. The largest risk I see is reverse splits and dilution that could leave investors with next to nothing. It's like all penny stocks, you have a potential to lose everything and a potential to retire early. If you want a safer investment, look at the fiber suppliers like Plum Creek and Weyerhaeuser Co.

Phillip

The reason I keep such a close eye on Drax is purely speculation that BMSPF has some form of partnership with them that they can't disclose. My basis for this theory is the fact that the capacity of the Drax transloading facility at the Port is significantly higher than the combined production of its three pellet processing plants. Likewise, Drax and BMSPF being at the same location tells you something. With all of the possible locations along the Mississippi, why the Port of Baton Rouge? My last piece of evidence to support my theory is the funding mechanism for both companies. Both "were approached by the Lousiana Economic Development agency" to build plants in Lousiana. Another coincidence? Maybe, but how does no name company like BMSPF get an invite to such a party as this without a bigger brother such as Drax?

Phillip

Drax Biomass clears ground for project

http://www.bastropenterprise.com/article/20130718/NEWS/130729936/1001/NEWS

It's not a new location. It's where they've stated that their wood chipping facility will be located. Fiber supplies will be shipped to this location, chipped, and barged down river to Baton Rouge where they will be torrified and pelletized. Looking at all the raw land available at this location, I think they have more room for stockpiling and chipping.

Phillip

News: Biomass Secure Power, Inc. Announces Exclusive Negotiation Agreement

Jul 10, 2013 (ACCESSWIRE via COMTEX) -- Abbotsford, British Columbia, July 10, 2013 - (eTeligis via Accesswire) - Biomass Secure Power, Inc. (otcpink:BMSPF) (the "Company") is pleased to announce that they have signed an Exclusive Negotiation Agreement with the Natchitoches Parish Port Commission ("NPPC"). This agreement gives our wholly owned subsidiary Biomass Power Louisiana L.L.C. ("BPL") for a period of 90 days from July 5, 2013 the exclusive rights to negotiate in good faith a long term lease on 50 acres of land within the NPPC property. In consideration of NPPC's agreement to negotiate exclusively with it, Biomass Power Louisiana L.L.C. has paid a fee of $15,000. A portion of this option fee will be applied to the first payment of any long term lease negotiated with the NPPC. BPL expects to sign a twenty year lease with an option for an additional 10 years within the 90 day time frame. The proposed chipping plant at Natchitoches will support the pellet plant at Baton Rouge by delivering wood chips by barge via the Red River.

BPL plans to complete its lease option with the Port of Greater Baton Rouge prior to end of August after which the construction of phase one of the pellet plant will commence. Plans are in place to build the plant in four phases over several years.

Phase one consists of three production lines each capable of producing 340,000 tonne per year of biomass pellets. When phase 1 is complete the company will have the capacity to produce one million tons of pellets per year.

The Company would also like to take this opportunity to thank Slawomir Kownacki for his service as a Director of the company. Mr. Kownacki has tendered his resignation from the board as he has other opportunities he wishes to explore. We wish Suavek best wishes in all of his future endeavors and thank him for his service.

About the Company

Biomass Secure Power, Inc. is incorporated in the Province of British Columbia. The Company has designed its biomass pellets plants to produce 340,000 tonnes of pellets per line. This allows the Company to leverage the engineering over multiple lines and several plants, as key equipment will be identical in each plant. Public filings and financial information on the Company can be found at: www.sedar.com.

Safe Harbor Statement:

This information includes certain "forward-looking statements." The forward-looking statements reflect the beliefs, expectations, objectives and goals of the Company management with respect to future events and financial performance. They are based on assumptions and estimates, which are believed reasonable at the time such statements are made. However, actual results could differ materially from anticipated results.

On Behalf of the Board,

BIOMASS SECURE POWER, INC.

"Jim Carroll"

Jim Carroll

President and CEO

Contact: 604 807 4957

www.biomasssecurepower.ca

SOURCE Biomass Secure Power, Inc.

http://www.accesswire.com/img.ashx?id=405782

Sedar has an update from Montreux's filings:

Update of the Transaction:
The parties have agreed to extend a certain dates in the Letter Agreement, including the date to close a private placement (the “Bridge Raise”) of the Issuer’s pre-consolidated shares for net proceeds of a minimum amount of $150,000 (the “Minimum Amount”) and of a maximum amount of $300,000 at a price of $0.025 per share. The Issuer may close the Bridge Raise in multiple tranches provided that the first tranche is for at least the Minimum Amount. The date to complete the Bridge Raise has been extended to June 30, 2013.

Minutes from the Port's May 23, 2013 Board meeting are out regarding Drax (Baton Rouge Transit) financing and lease agreement . . . they dediced to table it:


Agenda Item 8 - Consideration and appropriate action, if any, on the proposed lease agreement and possible financing options involving the Baton Rouge Transit, LLC wood pellet project.

Mr. Hardman addressed the Board with a request to table this item until the lease agreement and financing options are finalized.

I'm happy now. I was able to buy my equity back at a lower price and made a little money in the process.

Phillip

This kind of volume when there's no news is what causes my ears to perk up.

Phillip

I'm always skeptical of the individual who has their alias born yesterday that is recommending that everyone buy before the news gets released. If the news was so great, then I would keep it to myself so that I could accumulate more without running the price up. Maybe JimJ is a philanthropist though . . .

Phillip

I saw that also in a news alert that I set up. They want you to pay to see their report, but without knowing if it's all a bunch of stuff I already know, I didn't want to pay the $5+. I made the mistake of doing this once before for a report that came out on another company and it ended up not saying anything more than what I could find out on Yahoo's financial page.

Phillip

My theory is that the shares issued by BMSPF after the last quarterly statement will be going to Drax (and a smaller portion to their CFO) and they will become partial owner of BMSPF. The upside potential could be of greater benefit than if Drax were to do this alone. Also, if they see benefit in the the torrefication technology that has been developed by Andy Burns for BMSPF, Drax may not have the intelectual rights to BMSPF's technology.

Phillip

Drax is also now on the Agenda for the full Board at the Port to sign a lease and get financing (5/23/13). If my theory is correct and Drax and BMSPF are partners, the confidentiality provision of the agreement may expire upon Drax obtaining the lease. This is all speculation though, but one has to ask when would a company allow a confidential agreement be made public. Upon signing the lease with the Port may be one answer.

Phillip

Drax (aka Baton Rouge Transit, LLC) is on the agenda tomorrow at the Port's Comittee meeting:
http://www.portgbr.com/media/user/meetings/ExCommAgenda%2005-16-13.pdf

Phillip

There were protests at Drax a week or so ago by supposedly 26 environmental groups who were opposed to switching to biomass. Apparely only 50 people showed up so I question the strength of the movement. I emailed Jim about it and he didn't seem concerned.

Phillip

Getting off the pink sheets may help and also may hurt us. As everyone is aware, we want "institutional investors" looking at us, but is that also what the company is looking for? Then ask yourself what the company is going to sell to institutional investors? It isn't a component of the outstanding shares kept in reserve somewhere waiting to be sold. It will be brand new shares issued right off the press. If this is going to be as huge as we all think it will be, 75 million outstanding shares will be extremely small for the ultimate demand. The company can either issue more shares or do a stock split. Which would you place your bet on with a company that wants to attack the market aggressively and needs to raise capital?

Phillip

They have already announced bond financing through the Port and I expect them to announce take off agreements for future capacity. Those aren't the issues, the issue is what will we be left with by the time all of this happens. Having a higher share price when someone else owns the shares you used to have doesn't help my investment. This is a blatant slap in the face for those of us that have been here for 10+ years and I'm afraid the worst may not be over, but right now I have more questions than I have answers from this press release. We have 60 million shares left of the original 600 million. Another 10-15 million will dilute things further, but what is to become of Montreux shares? Is this a merger where their shares are going to be combined with our outstanding shares (units)? We could lose a lot more than 25% of our equity. This press release was obviously written by an attorney to say what needs to be said, but written with so much legalese that I need flow chart to decipher it. I think that is intentional.

At least we're back to the games being played with a couple hundred shares being traded for a penny.

Phillip

I'm not happy that I have 75% of what I used to have between the shares issued after the last filing, this 10:1 reverse split, and the subsequent issuance of another 12 million shares at a 75% discount ($0.025 AFTER the 10:1 reverse split). This is absolutetly sticking it to the current shareholders. It's stealing the equity I have in the company to sell it to someone else.

I also question the $150,000 in promissory notes that are to be paid off. Since the filings say the Directors have been funding operations through loans they've made to the company, my take on this is they've taken care of themselves in this transaction and we get the short end of the stick with the money we've put in.

As far as selling my postion, you're right. I sold 200,000 shares at the end of the day today. It's not my entire position, but it gets me into a comfort zone that I can live with. I have never seen a reverse split benefit the existing shareholders. NEVER. If you're right and things keep going up from here, my profit will be less than it once was. If I'm right and shares plummet to reflect a $0.0025 valuation based on the post split price of $0.025 being sold in the private placement, then I have nice profit to jump back in to buy back the equity that was just taken from me. Personally though, I can't see why anyone would knowingly buy shares right now at this price when they know every dollar that they will put in will be worth $0.75 after the split with the hope that some day they will get back their dollar.

Phillip

I'm not happy about it. I agree that being on the TSX is a benefit, but not at a cost that potentially leaves me with less than what invested. We have a 10:1 reverse split leaving 60 million outstanding shares. Then they will issue new shares at $0.05 to satisfy $150,000 in debt (probably to management) (at today's prices after the 10:1 reverse split, that would be $0.20). So we now have 63 million shares outstanding. Then they have a "Bridge Raise" for another $300,000 at $0.025. Now we're up to 75 million shares. I'm sorry, but we just lost equity and new shares issued under the age old penny stock scheme of issuing shares, doing a reverse split, and then issuing new shares. Our Board at least gets a monthly pay check now. Yea for us bag holders!! I wonder if I can complain to TSX.

Phillip

Drax just signed a lease in Gloster, MS. Interesting it was done at a special meeting. I wonder if the Port of Baton Rouge will hold a special meeting when the leases are signed for BMSPF and Drax there. One way to keep prying eyes like mine from reading the agendas for the regular monthly meetings.

http://www.enterprise-journal.com/news/article_d088710e-b28b-11e2-8e07-0019bb2963f4.html

Phillip

What news are you referring to?

Phillip

Me no likey, but can't say it's a trend one way or another. Definitely higher volume.

Phillip

Drax Wins Loan to Switch U.K. Power Plant to Biomass From Coal

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-24/drax-wins-loan-to-switch-u-k-power-plant-to-biomass-from-coal.html

400 shares at $0.008? Come on, give me a break. That's $3.20.

Phillip

Silverware and symbols dropping sounds too destructive. I'd rather hear noise like an F-15 taking off or rocket launching if we're talking about getting some noise around here.

Ho humm...we need some excitement here. It's so quiet, I can hear a pin drop.

Phillip

Possibly, but I don't have faith in schedules in general, not just the ones from the company. There's too many moving parts with large projects that can cause one delay after another: permitting, environmental regulations, suppliers, engineers, government entities, contractors, etc. The more contingency plans the better, but my experience with large projects is that there is always something that pops up. Sometimes minor delays, sometimes major. I've seen one year schedules stretch into 7 year delays. The good thing about this project is that all parties seem eager to move forward. The only opposition I see is form those who don't belive biomass is environmentally sustainable. The EU appears to have overruled these concerns, but I'm sure there's some environmental group out there with bee in their bonnet.

Phillip

I don't have any confidence in schedules, but it does seem like a matter of time if everything goes smoothly from here. How much time, I wouldn't bet on. But with whom, I would bet it is Drax. Funny thing is though that if it is Drax, it wasn't BMSPF that spilled the beans, but Drax's press releases. There's just too much circumstantial evidence for there not to be a connection between the two companies. Both are located at the Port, both projects compliment eachother, Drax transfer capacity is much larger than their pellet production capacity, Drax announced advanced negotiations with a third pellet producer, etc. I wish they would just come out with a press release and say it.

Phillip

Hopefully this means discussions have already started and the conferences will be to seal the deal. Having future production capapcity already comitted through these agreements are what the Port needs before financing of the project can begin.

Phillip

One million per phase with four phases at buildout. With 4 million tons per year at 144 Euros per ton ($185 US per ton), I get $740 million per year. With margins quoted at around 65%, I get a forward EPS at buildout of about $0.80 ($480 million/600 million shares). If the P/E ratio of the stock were say 10, the price per share would be $8.

As far as the radius issue with the feedstock, the entire Mississippi River tributary is open for business since feedstock will be barged in and sent in by rail. This is either a huge game I'm buying into or I'm looking at early retirement before I'm 40.

Phillip

I ran into the chart below and it dawned on me that the 4 million ton pellet production capacity that BMSPF is proposing would almost double the 2011/2012 capacity in the entire United States. The few of us invested in this company have got to either be the largest fools on the planet for falling for this huge scam or absolutely brilliant. I can only hope it's the latter of the two.

Y axis is in thousand metric tons.