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Watching the DJIA and S&P500 50 dma, which both seem to be getting tested also.
Had an open order for 500 shares fill at 7.77 this morning and just added another 500 shares at 7.66. Agree, we may see lower prices again. Hoping the 50 dma holds, but if not, intend to add larger quatity around 7.25.
Thanks Conix,
Nice chart and good day for CHK. GLTY!
If this market goes green, it looks like we take 9 out easily. A move toward 10 will get institutional attention and I will kick myself in the a$$ even more for selling 1/2 my position early.
GLTY!
I suspect the GM contract prevented Virtra from supporting TD. Now that the GM restrictions have been lifted, I anticipate increased activity with TD. Law suit will probably be setteled or go away.
I think you did well on that. You got it a hair above support. GLTY!
Technical observation:
BAC still has two open gaps below current price. One at 7.75 and the other at 7.14. Though BAC appears to be building a strong support level at 7.83; another deep dip in the market (IMO below 12600 on the DOW), then a buy at the 7.75 and maybe even 7.14 become possible.
Disclosure: I am maintaining GTC buy orders at 7.77 and 7.16
On the other hand, if BAC finds a way to get through current resistance at 8.31, there are open gaps to the upside at 8.33, 9.11 and 9.41 which could get filled rapidly with little resistance. GLTA!
IMO, if we can get through the 50 DMA (around 17.29), it should be able to make a run at the 200 DMA and fill the gap to the 18.30ish level.
If CSCO can get above the 200 DMA and sustain, the technicals will have improved dramatically offering considerably more upside potential. GLTA!
IMO we test the 200 DMA in the next few sessions. Should be good for a 21+ handle. GLTA!
End Game,
I hope you are right (ref: Cool...looks like the plan is unfolding.) IMO, if this Threat Dynamic franchise business takes off, it will make the GM deal look like penny ante. GLTY!
Quote: "Dividends for preferred stocks looks pretty nice"
Dan,
I have been looking at the same data, but what I find more interesting is the redemption of preferred shares in June (refer to BoA PR on 18 and 22 June 12).
BoA issued redemptions on approximately $4.3B Trust Preferred Securities in June. The savings from these redemptions alone would enable BoA to double their current dividend on the common stock.
A double of the current dividend moves the yield from 05.% to 1.0% (assuming a $8 cost average). That is a significant move and IMO will make a real difference. IMO, BoA will continue to add free cash to the bottom line at a rapid rate over the next couple of years. Waiting for an announced 10 to 20 cent appreciation in the dividend, will cut the potential yield in half because the underlying stock will likely have more than doubled by that time. Note: a 20 cent dividend on an $8 base price gives a 2.5% yield and IMO is very achievable in the next 6 to 9 months. I'm targeting a 36 cent dividend in two years which equates to a 4.5%+ yield, and the underlying stock price will have more than doubled by then.
I would think twice about unloading your shares after you get back in the green. A couple years from now, an $8 to $9 entry price will seem cheap and the dividend yield will be significant.
Disclosure: I continue to add on weakness. Trade Leap Call options when I can and use proceeds to buy more common. My goal is to be holding 20K+ shares of common before BAC breaks through $10 and maintain my common dollar cost average around $7.GLTY!
Thank you atomicdogs,
My sentiment exactly. Especially in this market.
GLTY!
You are right. I left at least 14 cents on the table. Plan to hold the other 1/2 for a while, or at least until the next apperant pull back. The technicals are getting a little hard for me to read here. Have to do some more homework.
IMO, we won't get a heads up on the divy and when it comes, it could cause the stock to pop a couple of points. A divy increase or buy-back announcement will say volumes about the LT health of BAC. I believe it's coming sooner than most are anticipating, possibly by the end of the year. GLTA!
Just took half off the table. Wasn't expecting a 40% profit so quickly. Also wish I would have loaded up on some options at 6. GLTA!
Long Term fundamentals and opportunities taken from Yahoo site. BAC could have legs at current level:
- The U.S. economy is improving.
- The housing market is stabilizing. Prices are actually rising in some areas.
- The Euro issue is being addressed (and BAC has limited exposure in any event).
- BoA reportedly won a court case which will uphold their previously announced $8.5 billion settlement for mortgage issues. Also, the settlement with States' Attorneys General is recently in the rearview mirror. This will help insulate them from some future mortgage gloom.
- The balance sheet is being methodically restructured to be better aligned with the Basel III capital ratio formula.
- Project 'New BAC' will reduce costs. It's true that cutting staff can also cut revenues. But the regulatory environment is already making revenue generation tougher. If the cuts are smart ones, the bottom line should improve relative to peers.
- International banks (especially European banks) are being asked to raise capital even while business prospects are dim. When your competitors are struggling more than you, then opportunities to take advantage arise.
- The bank passed the last 'stress test'.
- The Merrill acquisition has been beneficial despite the fits and starts caused by the clash of corporate cultures and the distraction of the lawsuits surrounding disclosure, due diligence, etc, etc.
- Management's stated intention for the future is to return excess $ to shareholders via dividends.
- In a fit of frustration the bank has stopped originating mortgages to sell to FNMA. The initial result is that they're actually making incrementally more $ on the loans they originate and sell elsewhere or that they hold in portfolio.
- The bank is selling off International assets and focusing only on the most profitable domestic operations. Yes, this is part of New BAC but worth mentioning in detail.
- Bove, banking analyst, has a year-end PT of $14.50. A 100%+ gain on Common shares and 400%+ gain on Jan14 Calls from recent levels.
GLTA Longs!
Quote: "I think also factors may be contributing to this new dynamic. One is the use of automated trading systems. It appears profits are being taken by big money... to the disadvantage of the old approach of LT (even IT) investing. ST profit trading systems that are profit based rather than the LT method given the general instability of the many over-indebted economies and financial systems in trouble around the world.
It seems that LTBH is becoming and endangered species when the crowd (herd) of investors still is as confused as they happen to be in general following what the headlines news (NOISE) tells at any given moment almost from one panic to another!
Yet, this is good news for savvy investors who are flexible and ready to take the challenge... and following what the market internals may be saying behind the appearances."
JJ8,
Good analysis on changing market dynamics. I'm pretty much in the same camp with you and view the ST opportunities as driven by TA signals and media NOISE.
From a TA and ST perspective, I see BAC needing to get through the 8.31 to 8.36 range, and then a run to the 10 area could happen quickly with little resistance if the market stays positive.
My primary focus is to build a LT position but I will take advantage of ST opportunities when I can to lower my dollar cost average.
Despite the new money-making market trend you highlight in your post, BAC will make a significant move higher and IMO sooner rather than later. Once BAC announces a significant dividend, or share buy-back, ST traders will be chasing this stock to $15+. I think we can be assured that big money will be positioned months ahead of the big move, and we may be watching some of that quiet accumulation play out over the last couple of months. At least I hope so. GLTY!
Quote: "Sentiment: Buy on weakness... for IT and LT"
I'm in your boat. I can't read this market from one day to the next. I remain fairly confident we will see a trade at the 10 level by early 2013. Continue to buy 5 and 7 Jan14 leaps on weakness and use profits to extend my common balance.
I got a whopping $123 dividend payout earlier this week. Hope to grow that to $200+ by next quarter, and then wait for the 1 cent dividend to make a substantial up tick. GLTY!
Added so more Jan14 calls near low of the day on Thurday, but technically another test of 16 or high 15 is in play, so save a little dry powder. IMO, if the market can start a bull run, CSCO will follow. Downside risk is limited here, but 14 is not out of the question if market takes a big dip. GLTA!
Quote: "Expect we finally take out the 50ma of 7.13"
Agree, we take out the 50 dma and then I would anticipate a move near term to test the 52 week high assumming markets don't tank on us. GLTA and congrats to SWHC on great earnings report!
That is what the market has been pricing in all afternoon. Buy the rumor, sell the news. GLTY!
Never fails; I get antsy and jump in above my price, then my price shows up Hopefully we get a turn around in the coming days. CSCO's story seems to be improving and IMO there is good value at the current levels, and I want catch that gap fill
GLTA!
Well, I see the DOW fell below 12,600 which I view as a critical level. If we don't close above that, your test of the 200 dma becomes much more likely.
You could be right on 50 dma failing, but I'm working at building a longer term position so I will just view that as opportunity to extend. I've got cheap 6 and 7 puts to cover me through Sep if the market tanks, since I'm still not convinced current administration can hold off conflict in the Levant/Middle East until after the election. Wishing us all some luck!
I like the way it has held support on this nasty market day. Just added a bit at 7.03. GLTA!
Hoping 7.84 is/was close enough to the 50 dma. Just added some to my core common and extended my jan14 calls. GLTA! Watching 12,600 on the DOW; that is where I'm hoping we hold and bounce.
I just doubled down on my calls. Hopeing 17 holds as well as 12,600 on the DOW. GLTY!
Quote: "I wouldn't expect much below $7.95 maybe a bounce off the 50ma around $7.78 if we are lucky"
I'm with you and would like the 50 DMA bounce but not optimistic. Keeping some powder dry regardless. That 50 dma will start moving up on us, which will shrink the delta from the current price.
Little surprised to see all the resistance at 8.20; wasn't expecting it until 8.31ish. Just goes to show, TA is a far cry from perfect, but serves me pretty well for general direction, exit and entry. GLTY!
Just puleed the trigger on Jan13 and 14 leaps when she dipped to 17.30 filling the gap up from yesterday. Now I'm a cheerleader. Go CSCO!
Trying to extend my position on the Jan14 leaps, but the price action was crappy. No one wanting to sell at what I'm willing to pay Was really hoping for more of a pullback today. Maybe tomorrow. GLTY and nice job on the 10%!
PS: Keep an eye on CSCO. There is a quick buck in the wings with a gap filler.
Very nice move today and congrats to all longs. I couldn't get my price, but will continue to watch. GLTA!
This is the only stock in my portfolio not making money. Lets all wish it higher.
A couple of poitives that maybe right around the corner:
- audited financials
- hoping that somone has been buying at these depressed levels last few months. Maybe an announcement that Virtra bought back some shares?
- new product?
- new sales?
Just one or two of these coming through should move the stock up a couple cents+. GLTA!
Was looking for a pull back today. Maybe we will still get it? BAC volume looks decent again. Getting some fresh money in above 8 is a good thing. GLTA!
It keeps running away from me. Was hoping for a market correction today and an opportunity to buy. No joy
You may be right. I'm holding to 20 and will reassess. Would love an additional 3 bucks.
Awesome breakout with excellent volume. Just the way its suppose to work. GLTA!
If market continues to move forward, I think CSCO fills the gap to $18.50. Don't know what the catalyst is beyond the market, but believe the technicals are pointing at something.
If market pulls back I am targeting 16.95 on the common to purchase the Jan14 $15 calls. GLTA!
Took profits on Jan13 $7 calls today and will hold the Jan14 $7 calls longterm. Not sure if we 7s again, but I intend to extend between 7.70 and 7.75 if we get that opportunity down the road. GLTA!
I just sold 1/2 at 18.67. Can't resist taking some profit when we are up a buck. Will try and hold the other half for $20
Two good days back to back. I think we will take out $7 before earnings release. GLTA!