Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
I'm pretty sure, considering all the patients in this trial are refractory to the first and second line settings, makes P a "lock" in all refractory patients...not just T315i patients
the complaining about McMinn strikes me as the message-board equivalent of post-hoc data mining
I don’t think much of sell-side analysts, but McMinn is one of the better analysts covering the biotech sector
Rachel McMinn is a miserable [fill in the blank].
We have had this exact same conversation on this board every 3 months since I first bought 2/3 years ago. I have no reason to believe that this time is any different.
Question: If you were a fund manger, what about today's abstracts would make you seller?
This is what this stock does. If I sold everytime it had a god-awful/sell the news day, I would have been gone a long time ago. I would not be the least surprised if it was hitting new 52 week highs by the end of the year. This was good news for Pona (as expected).
GL
There is no way anyone with 1/2 a brain could view these results as negative. This is a sell the news trade. I expect the pps to start a nice incline in the weeks to come.
Can't wait to read how the $3 pps works into the latest chapter of "Deep Capture"?
Edit: I too (like BTH) feel bad for the poor bastards who drank the KoolAid and bought when it was taking off like a rocket.
The Harv sure is brazen now that he has his big gun (Pona) loaded and ready to go, huh?
I guess the Harv is not loving Mrk's handling of Rida as most of us here have surmised.
Good CC. I found the Harv's comment on Mrk"s "wanting everyone to believe they discovered Rida" odd and interesting.
I have never been the biggest of Harv fans, but I think you are making more of the poster's breakout session revelation. Seems to me preparing the NDA is par for the coarse and Berger taking his book and being confident on Ponatnib is nothing new.
I could really care less if Berger is a jerk or not. Lately he has been doing a solid job steering the boat IMO. I can think of plenty of obvious jerks that have made a lot of money for their sharehoders. There was a guy who ran Apple was not exactly loved by all, but the shareholders did pretty well, no?
Didn't he do one the day the Endo data came out @ $3.70ish??
BTH is right. The "easy" money has been made already.
For instance, if you were lucky enough to have bought 100k shares at $2, you are now sitting over 5x your money. If you bought that same 100k shares today, it would cost you a cool mil and God only knows when (if ever) you will see 5x your money. Hence, I agree that the easy money has already been made.
Sure didn't feel so easy! Lot's of trepidation along the way.
Maybe, but I don't think so Rum. I think Berger would have pulled the trigger on atleast a 10 mil dilution if he had any question of Pona's results.
From your mouth to God's ears lax. I don't know what I would do but I would have to sell something.
Great problem to have huh? I would see what Berger does and evaluate the potential for the company at that time. Suddenly Pona is being talked about in the front line (something I have been asking over at BV forever), so we really don't know what it's potential is right now. 113 is a wild card, and could be their best drug (or a bust). We really don't know so let's see where it goes.
It could get very interesting around here in a few years, I would like to have something on the table to see what develops.
GL
I agree completely, but 100%-300% is still significant potential upside from here. You just need to wait and let the drugs develop. My guess (and my money) say 2 more years.
Do you think that the kind and apparently generous folks over at Roche would be interested in an acquisition that would give them a nice little inroads into the CML market and a potentially ass-kicking ALK/EGFR inhibitor to boot?
Just asking :)
If DD believes he has missed ARIA, it follows that he thinks the train has left the station and there is litle upside in chasing it
I think you and Dew put way too much emfasis on the importanse of proper spelling and gramer.
JMHO ;0)
But Marty cleaned up on that trade. Neop was trading around $5 when that ridiculous article was published on SA.
I guess I see your reasoning. Only problem I see (if you call it that) is that you could potentially leave some money on the table if Ariad is trading much higher than $11 by then.
GL with the house (and Ariad)
Not sure I understand the logic behind that one. Can you shed a little light on the thought process? Just wondering
EDIT: What's going on in the AH? Ameritrade command center shows $11.31 last.....
Thanks. Any plans for an Android app?
Sorry guy. I don't see it either and I def have enough Araid in my account! lol
From Mrk's perspective, why not give it a shot? Worst they could say is no and you get the standard 10 month anyway.
Kinda like you'll never know if the hot chick at the end of the bar digs you unless you go over and say hi.
Thanks for the follow up.
I think a nice Asian partner for Pona would get us a little boost here. How much does the board think that would be worth upfront?
Maybe, but I am not sure it would have made a difference.
ARIA and MRK get a standard (10-month) review for ridaforolimus in sarcoma. Not great news for Rida, IMO
The puts are just shorts pilling on, IMO. This has to be a fund dumping at the end of a nasty Q3 in order to:
A- pad their Q3 stats (assuming they purchased Aria @ a lower price)
B- de-risk
C- both
Brutal effin day. Pray for a good Q4. If not, we are screwed.
BTW, you asked who's buying. 6 mil shares traded, somebody was buying today. Wish it was me instead of $9.55 last week.
I have been getting the feeling that it has been going on for a few days. Just lightening up a bit. With no one in any real hurry to buy a risky asset, we go down.
That would be lovely, but I wouldn't hold my breath.
Glad to hear it, but I for one, would never know it from the tone of your post. A little buyer's(holder's)remorse? I have approx. 70% of my portfolio in Ariad, and I'm not a bit worried.
You are preaching to the choir bud. I pushed more chips into an obscenely over the top percentage of my portfolio on Thursday.
Here's to us, bellied up to some bar, laughing like school girls with glee in a few years.
We have a long way to go till ASH. I hope the Harv has something up his sleeve for us. I'd hate to depend on the overall for comfort.
What's the plan for your "trading" shares from the other day?
I would tend to agree, but some of the BV guys have made a decent case being that the MC is now 1.3-1.4 billion.
Too bad the timing sucks. The overall is filled with way too many unknowns for anyone to be committing any significant long money at this point, IMO.
I just wonder if a Ponatnib approval isn't close to being baked in the cake in this "new normal" (i.e. lack of risk appetite). Having the poster child for fledgling biotechs (DNDN) fall flat on it's face has certainly not helped matters.
BTW, the first line CML as well as 113 are two complete unknowns at this time. They could end up being huge home runs, but you are going to have to sit around and wait for their stories to develop.
FWIW, I sold my position in BAC today at a loss. I bought another nice chunk of Aria. Buying when others are fearful seems to have worked for ole Warren.
So why would you invest in an ultra high beta name like Aria? Isn't it obvious that as long as the overall is in the crapper that Aria is going nowhere.
As far as MS and BAC are concerned, this is most certainly not 2008. See you in a year or so and we shall see who is right. This will pass eventually.
You keep listening Nouriel and Meredith.
Banks are getting wrecked because Bernanke is flattening the yield curve which in turn makes the banks profits less. More reason for these dirtball banks TO START LENDING AGAIN....which is what BANKS ARE SUPPOSED TO DO
I am concerned about Rida because I think it has much more downside potential than upside. I can envision a $1 move up on a thumbs up and a $3-$4 downside move on a thumbs down (especially if it's one of these brutal overall days). I am one of the founding members of the "Ariad is all about Ponatnib club" pally. If you recall me getting verbally slapped around by the BV boys months ago because of that exact opinion.
As far as politics, the lunatic fringe right wing only cares about one thing, making sure Obama doesn't get re-elected. The left imbeciles have no effin clue about how to get this country back on the tracks. We (this country) are stuck in the middle and effed.
It's a damn shame because things are not as bad as the media is making them out to be.