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I’d be willing to bet that Mr. Conover barely knew that MNTA existed until a week ago.
He is not alone . Count me into this group and many more of us will be coming out of the hills. I was glad to see the IBD article its a a well followed investor journal.
But this only goes to show how quick this market is to cash in on any winners.
Agreed .With machines and software programs doing much of the trading and the retail investor long since gone its amazing
there are other humans to talk to about stocks.
A little exaggeration but somewhat true.
IDIX’s having one compound from each of four drug classes would seem to confer more overall pipeline value than having three or four compounds from the same class.
I think you hit the nail on the head there.
My opinion is that big Pharma companies are seeking to buy drugs along the entire spectrum of treatment.Also having compounds in each class gives you the ability for further research testing Pre-approval.
I have no position in IDIX but it seems like a very interesting company with home-run potential.
Do you think that they will have to raise funds in the near future ? I would like to start a position but if they announce a secondary that almost certainly would affect the PPS.
Perhaps sites was not the correct terminology of what i was grasping at .But you would know this better than me . I thought the viral replication process was much more complex with HIV than Hep C . Below is a quote from a very old article published in 1997 .I also remember a hepatologist telling me the Hep C virus will be easier to cure than the HIV virus due to the difference in their viral replication patterns.By no means do i know this for sure , i am asking what you think ?
"More than 20 sites within the HIV-1 protease gene have been associated with resistance to one or more of the protease inhibitors. Although each drug in this class selects for a specific, predictable pattern of genotypic changes, these patterns do overlap -- and where they do, cross-resistance may occur."
Companies are hunting to buy or license a nuke.If you have interferon and a protease think how attractive a nuke would be. Its much easier to deal with the MCOs if you have the entire treatment spectrum.
Some of the second generation protease inhibitors like Vaniprevir MK-7009 may have little or no viral resistance.This is a controversial statement due to the nature of the of viral replication with Hep c.Correct me if i am wrong but the number of replication sites for Hep C is much smaller than the number for HIV which has up to 20 potential sites.
I believe that prior to the use of rib (i.e. when ifn monotherapy was the primary treatment for HCV) SVR was 12 week SVR. Presumably because the relapse rate after 12 weeks was negligible.
SVR was negligible also .With Intron mono i believe it was 11 % and with Peg mono i think double that at around 25 % SVR Geno 1.Maybe with the orals the 12 wk EOT will be a valid time frame but i have not seen any conclusive data. Have you ?
Thanks
I don't have the data handy but i believe that the durability of negative 12 wk EOT vs negative 24 wk EOT( which i know as SVR ) is significantly different. So i am not aware of 12 week EOT of being of any value
I understand what you are saying but 12 SVR ? 12 week EOT maybe you might look at that for curiosity. Sustained is not 12 weeks and i would never expect anyone to use 12 wk EOT and 12 week SVR as one in the same. 24 wk EOT and SVR would be correct
I have a question . Did they not measure Rvr 4 week and Evr 12 week ? Are they just measuring 24 wk ? If you look at a large well done trial like the IDEAL trial comparing Peg 1.5/riba Peg/ 1.0/riba and Pegasys 180/Riba. Patients who were not negative at week 4 and 12 but negative at week 24 had a 50% relapse rate. I know you gentleman are using the term SVR but i understand SVR as EOT plus 6 months to measure true SVR.
I do not know who is advising Vertex on the data they are gathering but two of the simplest painful approval delay mistakes a company can make is to give the FDA too little data or too much data.Of course if you give too little data they will ask for more but you can give them too much data initially and they have come back to companies and said " Thats interesting give us more data on that "
They are at a disadvantage with the current management team
IMO
Off to my day job
The word source is a broad term . Lets just say i have had a conversation with someone who has knowledge of a very small part of a much larger pie.No specifics or data were shared but this person has a very high opinion of a very tiny player That being said having just a fraction of information sometimes is more misleading than having no information. Lets see how they do . I believe they are still private . I have not followed the investing side of Bio tech for a while. Its easy to lose a lot of money very quickly when you think think your knowledge of a small company is so solid you make a large monetary bet.I am speaking of myself only.
Just one other thing about Presidio . I believe one of the bright minds over there came from BMS . BMS is another company that is rapidly climbing the HCV ladder and soon to be a player.I am not saying proprietary information changed hands but every day in the pharmaceutical industry someone leave company x to go to company y and they bring an irreplaceable amount of experience and know how to that new company.Sometimes this helps get company y over the greatest hurdle for any small start up . An approval drug.
I am not sure but i think the NS5A inhibitor that they are making good progess with is not the one they bought but may be a derivative of that compound.
Wow i am very impressed with the completeness of your list.
The fact that you have presidio here .Not a lot is known publicly about them but someone told me to watch out for their NS5A . I honestly believe that big pharma will start picking the small gems up in the next six months.I am shocked that VRTX has lasted this long as a stand alone.
Sorry misunderstood .
I have no idea and its a great question.
Remember MRK doesn't need to run around making announcements .They don't need the money so they have held their cards closer to the vest, from the beginning VERTEX has made much more noise because it helps with raising money.We will see the data soon enough.Don't be surprised if Mrks product wont show a little bit more efficacy but slight more side effects mostly anemia which can be managed with Epoetin alfa . I think both products will do very well and both will be successful.
Yes it has commercial value .Since Interferon HCV treatment is likely to be around for at least a few more years this is another bullet in the ability to predict who will respond.We may be as many as 5 years away from a combo pill triple therapy of Protease-Nuc - Non nuc combo.The test will be commercially available soon imho.
Is Now the Time for Chinese Stocks?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/216549-is-now-the-time-for-chinese-stocks
At last! China investors have finally been rewarded for their patience. After a tough first half of the year, I was beginning to wonder when this day would come.
In Shanghai, stocks rang up their biggest weekly gain of the year. The Shanghai Composite Index jumped by more than 6% for a number of key reasons.
In short, we saw a lot of indicators that China's economy is in great shape for the rest of the year. Even better, key companies are expected to turn in solid second half profit gains!
First turning point: China's big banks showed better NPL ratios. We've all heard worries that Chinese banks would be saddled with big non-performing loan burdens because of a real estate bubble. Not so. The bad loan ratio at Chinese banks fell to 1.30% at the end of June. China's top banking regulator says the ratio is down from 1.58% at the start of this year. That means China won't face a replay of the U.S. banking implosion.
Chinese banks have more than enough money set aside to cover bad loans. The banks have made provisions to cover 186% of non-performing loans – a comfortable safety margin.
Second turning point: I see rising confidence in banks is a tide that lifts all boats. Shares of China's major banks rose in tandem at the end of the week. That helped push the Shanghai Composite to its record rebound.
Agricultural Bank of China led the charge. AgBank gained 2.9% on news that Morgan Stanley (MS) had boosted its stake in the bank's Hong Kong-listed shares. In a major show of confidence, Morgan Stanley's holdings have risen to more than 16% of AgBank's Hong Kong listing.
Third Turning Point: China's leaders pledged again to maintain a "modestly loose" monetary policy. That means no sharp slowdown in bank lending. Aggressive lending has worked like a hit of caffeine on the Chinese economy.
U.S. Investors Share the Gains
I often see Chinese stocks and American ADRs moving in different directions. Not this week. The Bank of New York Mellon China ADR Index is also up 6%.
Sellers really seem to be drying up at this point in the day
Hopefully she comes home tonight and closes above 11
Damm swingers ruining good solid relationships . I thought i could trust my girl ( CCME ) but she is one heck of a swinger
Lots of shares still being sold considering the small float . Any guesses why ? I am dumbfounded
Hippychick
Did u cover today ? Or did you add more to your short ? You said you would be in front of the computer all day .
I am long and i am not a chart man . But i would think someone who does technical analysis along with sentiment following would have had a logical case to short the stock from the mid teens. These people have been right the last several weeks and fundamental guys like me have been wrong.But the sentiment is changing and China seems to be loosening up. So i hope the tide is turning and fundamentals come back in to play
I am not saying she is a liar . Just curious . I did go and read her profile and after reading it i tend to believe her. To sell short 50000 shares of a volatile small cap you need to have deep pockets.I cant say i wish her well but she is certainly the most interesting person on this board.I don't think we ever got her specific reasons on why she thinks CCME is a good short . Maybe she posted it and i missed it.
No Big slowdown No Big Inflation
Good news
GLOBAL MARKETS-Asian stocks under pressure but China data helps
Thu Jul 15, 2010 5:05am GMT
Print | Single Page[-] Text [+] * Asian stocks claw back some losses after China data
* Markets remain worried about slowing U.S. recovery
* AgBank's weak debut drags down Shanghai index
* Australian dollar gains, S&P stock futures cut losses
* Dollar near 2-month low vs basket of currencies
By Kevin Yao
SINGAPORE, July 15 (Reuters) - Asian stocks remained under pressure on Thursday as worries about a U.S. economic slowdown persisted, even as a spate of Chinese data pointed to only a mild cooling in that economy.
China's annual economic growth eased to 10.3 percent in the second quarter from 11.9 percent in the first quarter, a touch weaker than expected, in response to credit curbs and the fading of fiscal stimulus.
Nevertheless, the data showed concerns about a steep slowdown in the world's third-largest economy were overblown. Inflation at the producer and consumer level also eased in June from May, reducing the need for further policy tightening.
With no nasty surprises from China, investor concern returned to the health of world's biggest economy after minutes of the Federal Reserve's June meeting showed officials were more concerned with the pace of the U.S. recovery.
The MSCI index of stocks in Asia-Pacific outside Japan was down 0.4 percent at 0450 GMT. The index had briefly turned higher after the Chinese data.
The Aussie dollar erased the half percentage point loss against the dollar it had made after an official Chinese paper reported the economy may slow more sharply than expected in the second half of this year.
"The data has attracted much attention but at the end of the day, they were not far from market expectations. They showed the Chinese economy is slowing down but that's what markets have been looking for," said Hideaki Inoue, manager of foreign exchange at Mitsubishi Trust and Banking Corp.
Shanghai stocks fell 0.36 percent, reversing earlier gains, after Agricultural Bank of China disappointed with a lacklustre Shanghai debut. Its shares rose only marginally in the first few minutes of trading.
Banks repossessed a record number of U.S. homes in the second quarter, though foreclosure filings eased slightly from earlier in the year, real estate data firm RealtyTrac said on Thursday. The root problems of job losses persist, making a sustained recovery in the housing market elusive.
Investors were waiting for corporate earnings results, including those from Google and JPMorgan Chase
AUSSIE DOLLAR WHIPSAWS ON CHINA REPORTS
The Australian dollar stood at $0.8802, down 0.4 percent on the day but above the day's low of $0.8780 hit after the Chinese newspaper report fanned fears of a sharp growth slowdown.
The Chinese Securities Journal reported prior to the government data that the economy may slow more sharply than expected in the second half of this year, which could cool demand for commodities.
The euro erased its losses to change hands at $1.2746, not far from its two-month high of $1.2778 hit on Wednesday.
The dollar was under pressure, holding near two-month lows against a basket of currencies.
Meanwhile, S&P futures erased earlier losses and were 0.17 percent higher on the day at 1,093.00, compared to around 1,090 before the data. (Editing by Jan Dahinten)
OT
China was very disappointed that the largest country failed to qualify.China fans are a large group ( 50000) in attendance in South Africa.They wince to see the other Asian counties do well and qualify even N Korea.Like the Americans their womens teams are usually dominant in World cup play.
Wow the board has sprung to life.
I do have to say after reviewing some very thoughtful and some not so thougtful posts , I for one am still as confident as ever about CCME.I compare it to be woken up at night by a noise in the living room.The first thought is trouble but for me its always been the dog foraging .I still have not seen or heard anything new of substance that anyone has brought to light.This is a very high beta China stock that is prone to violent moves.Still nothing new or earth shattering there.
Go USA !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I don't think we need to start picking out anecdotal trades and attacking each other.I appreciate all sides and want to thank bispr ,headley and burp for thier opinions . I don't want to get too one sided in my thinking
Even some of the biggest bulls have turned negative on the stock which is completely understandable.But for me it boils down to a very important rule in making money trading stocks.Now i am no technical trader so charts don't move me.So in the absence of any fundamental change in a company.
Sell during periods of extreme shareholder optimism and buy during periods of extreme shareholder pessimism.So where are we now ? Have they announced a negative fundamental change in the company ? Insiders are selling ? Bad news is on the horizon ?
Show me proof please.
Bloomberg
China Housing Isn’t a Bubble as Economy Underpins, Say UBS, ING
June 22, 2010, 10:49 PM EDT
June 23 (Bloomberg) -- China’s housing market is not in a bubble and economic expansion and urbanization will support gains in property prices in the long term, UBS Global Asset Management and ING Real Estate Investment Management said.
Economic growth will underpin the market even amid concern that a bubble has formed in first-tier cities and some second- tier ones, Lijian Chen, head of global real estate for Greater China at UBS Global Asset Management, told a property conference in Singapore yesterday.
The Chinese government has introduced measures to rein in record price gains, including a ban on loans for third-home purchases, higher mortgage rates and down-payment requirements for second homes. Real-estate prices jumped 12.4 percent across 70 cities in May, after a 12.8 percent surge in April that was the most since the data series began in 2005.
“The market is not suffering from a bubble,” said Richard Van Den Berg, managing director at ING Real Estate, a global fund manager with about $87.7 billion of assets. “There are price corrections going to take place in primary cities. In secondary cities, because of government measures, there will be a bit of cooling off, lower volume, and wait and see. In principal, the market is very, very healthy.”
The country’s economy expanded 11.9 percent in the first quarter, the fastest pace in almost three years, boosted by Premier Wen Jiabao’s $586 billion stimulus package. The World Bank, in an economic outlook published June 9, forecast 9.5 percent GDP growth for the year.
Hot Market
“At the end of the day, the real estate market will continue to grow,” said UBS’s Chen. “The economy will grow at 10 percent and that will translate into income growth.”
UBS Global Asset Management, a division of UBS AG, Switzerland’s biggest bank, invested $560 billion in assets as of March 2010.
China overtook Hong Kong as the world’s hottest housing market in the first quarter, with prices rising at more than double the rate of anywhere else, property adviser Knight Frank LLP said June 17.
China’s retail and residential properties remain the top desired investments for the three years ending 2012, according to a survey of 75 investors and fund managers this year by Hong Kong-based Anrev, a non-for-profit organization.
UBS’s and ING’s optimism contrasts with Nomura Holdings Inc. The “bubble” in China’s property market is going to burst very quickly, with prices set to fall as much as 20 percent in the next 12 to 18 months, Sun Mingchun, a Hong Kong-based economist at Nomura, said in a Bloomberg Television interview on June 16.
No Bubble
Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia Ltd., said the government’s measures are working “by all accounts.” China’s property boom isn’t a bubble because it’s supported by “solid” demand for residential housing, he said in a radio interview from Hong Kong with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Surveillance.
There is demand for ING Real Estate’s residential projects in second-tier cities in China, despite the government’s cooling measures, said Van Den Berg. About 20 percent of buyers pay in cash, while the rest will borrow less than half the purchase price, he said.
Affordability and the level of borrowing are supporting second-tier cities, he said.
“Affordability in second-tier cities, not all, but most, is still extremely healthy, where you see between 20 to 30 percent of people’s disposable income is utilized for paying a mortgage,” he said, citing ING Real Estate’s research. “Leverage in China across the board is very low. The risk in regards to people not being able to fund their mortgage commitment is not very high. The backdrop is economic growth.”
Medium-Term Promise
While the government’s measures to curb real estate investment have created more uncertainties, there are opportunities in the long term, real estate fund managers such as Grosvenor, RREEF, and Morgan Stanley said at the Real Estate Investment World conference in Singapore.
“China holds a lot of promise in the medium and long term,” said Nicholas Loup, chief executive for the Asia-Pacific region at Grosvenor, an Edinburgh-based privately owned property group.
China is “going to be an attractive market in the long run, but at the moment, it feels a bit over-heated,” said Willem De Geus, a managing director of Morgan Stanley Real Estate Investment Management. “Nothing is easy in China.”
While it’s challenging to manage assets in China with some tenants in default, the nation looks more interesting than India because of the size of the economy, said Paul Keogh, chief investment officer for Asia-Pacific at RREEF, the real estate investment management business of Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank AG, with about $54 billion in assets managed.
“China has emerged more rapidly over the last few years,” Keogh said. “From an economic perspective, infrastructure, urbanization, you’ve got GDP growth that’s three times more than what India is on a per-capita basis.”
Most of our China stocks are even more ridiculously cheaper than their mainland cousins
China stocks now offer appetizing entry point, say analysts
By Chris Oliver, MarketWatch
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/story/print?guid=6E72E4A7-E244-4108-B139-DFE045C5735F
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- After slumping by more than one-fifth since the start of the year, it's little surprise there's scant enthusiasm for China shares.
But analysts say Chinese stocks are now at valuations that have historically provided good entry points for investors.
Macquarie Securities flagged the issue in a research note earlier this month, saying on the basis of expected earnings, Shanghai shares were trading 24% below their long-term average. They are also just 14% higher in terms of expected earning than the lows seen in August 2005, when they slumped to an eight-year low amid concerns the Chinese government would begin selling its stakes in state companies.
INVESTING IN ASIA
Beat the tide
Asia still offers opportunities for long-term investors, analysts say. China, India and Indonesia are markets with potential.
• Risks, rewards of 'going local'
• Diversity in a diverse region
• China makes good entry point
• Using ETF's to invest in Asia
• Watch China consumers
• Growth opportunities
84639 "Local sentiment is beginning to shift back in favor of local equities," said Macquarie analysts, led by Michael Kurtz, in a note.
Though China's economic clout makes it a key player in any global recovery scenario, observers are also closely watching its stock market because of its recent tendency to foreshadow the shifting tide in world markets.
Chinese stocks were among the first to recover from the global crisis, turning higher in October 2008, almost six months before U.S. and European markets began to rally. Chinese markets turned lower in August, signaling a change in momentum months before other markets would begin to sputter.
Risk
Just my opinion but the riskiest investment right now is also the " safest " investment right now. Think about it US Treasuries are the most crowded trade in history right now .That bond market is an enormous one sided trade.Look at the yield vs the S&P .China stocks are fraught with risk and one needs to do their DD.You think cash is safe ? Where do you honestly think the dollar will be in 20 years compared to the yuan and rupee ? If you are really worried about your investment and want to earn a small real return each year you should probably buy a basket of the BRIC currencies with a gold hedge.There is a lot of risk out there right now but with the right basket of high growth stocks some of us maybe buying a beach house on WPB one day.Look you can tear my thoughts up to shreds but they are just my opinions.
I have been very quiet lately. I am not at all upset with CCME but i am upset with watching what has been going on.Classic manipulation with some powerful people who legally steal money everyday because they are powerful and they can.Then every Tom , Dick and short trader jumps on board and exacerbates what is going on . This too shall pass . That is why so many retail investors have left the market for good.The manipulation is so obvious with the flash traders and pundits that have access to the one or two press sources to pound their book.No freedom of the press here just the rich getting richer.China is not without fault and they have left themselves open for some of these frenzied cries by the Chanos , Cramer , and Greenberg gang.But Chanos is actually helping China without realizing it.China is taking aggressive banking regulations early on while they still have rampant growth so they can correct the issues.They are slowly raising wages and doing most of that on the back of their currency.If that hurts anyone it could hurt the people buying those DVD players but i doubt it will have minimal effect.Anyway be patient a diamond is a diamond no matter how many people scream cubic zirconia
.CCME s day is coming but not until the brutes have bullied people out of enough money for another beach house in West Palm Beach.
Russell Reconstitution
Preliminary additions and deletions
http://www.russell.com/indexes/membership/Reconstitution/Reconstitution_changes.aspx
China MediaExpress Increases Presence with New Contracts
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/China-MediaExpress-Increases-indie-1995690030.html?x=0&.v=1
Shares of China MediaExpress (AMEX: CCME - News) moved up after the Chinese advertising firm announced it has signed several new long-term agreements. The contracts add a total of 408 express busses to its already rapidly expanding networks, the company said. China Media's CEO, Mr. Zheng Cheng, explained, "With these agreements, we have enlarged our network to over 22,700 express buses, have increased our presence in the province of Fujian and also have expanded our geographic coverage into the province of Jiangxi." According to the press release, both Jiangxi and Fujian are highly populated and fast-growing provinces in China. While the news is helping lift China Media by 2%, it seems to be having little influence on other stocks in the Chinese advertising space.
As a whole, the Chinese Advertising Stocks Index is up fractionally, by 0.3% today. However, the Index is down -11% for the past month.
Micro-cap firm China Mass Media (NYSE: CMM - News) is noticeably weaker today, falling by -3%. Sector giant Focus Media Holding (NASDAQ: FMCN - News) is down -1%, while AirMedia Group (NASDAQ: AMCN - News) and VisionChina Media (NASDAQ: VISN - News) are both moving to the upside by 2% or more.
Over the last month, many names in the space have been slammed as investors have grown concerned about an economic downturn in China. Xinhua Sports (NASDAQ: XSEL - News), VisionChina and VisionChina have all plummeted by greater than -33%. China Mass Media has also had a volatile month, dropping by -26% during that time.
Best Stock CCME ?
http://www.mffais.com/ccme
China Media Express Holdings: (AMEX: CCME)- Switches To NASDAQ Next Week
http://www.otcjournal.com/Top-10-List-of-China-Stocks/af/archive/20100528-1/
• Recent price: $13.25
• 52 week range: $7.35 to $14.82
• ’09 performance: $95.9 million revs- $56.6 million net profits
• Market Cap: $400 million
• Q1 Financials: $44.5 million in revs (137% growth from Q1 ’09), Net: $18.1 million after subtracting one stupid GAAP non cash charge
• 2010 Estimated EPS: $1.75 to $2- company expects to earn about $70 million with an estimated 36 million shares I&O
• Overview: In 2008 Vision Media (VISN) was one of the hottest stocks around. It was $6 in March of ’08, and ran to $26 by the end of July. The company was deploying flat panel displays all over China at high traffic points and making the screens available to advertisers. The business model was flawed as the advertisers came to understand people really didn't see the ads as they moved around rather busily on their way to wherever they were going. CCME has taken a different approach, and advertisers love it. There are 21,500 mass transit buses in China’s 5 most prosperous municipalities sporting CCME’s advertorial flat panel displays. The audience is captive on the bus, and the advertising is far more effective. If the company can deliver $2 in EPS this year, I cant see the stock trading much under $25 to $30 as interest comes back to China stocks. Amazingly, there is not one analyst covering the stock yet, which is another reason to own it now.