Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Come on guys it's obvious WDRP has the AMF in their back pocket and they're in the scam together. ;) Why else would they delay the hearings? Just like all the distributors, all the parts manufacturers, technical advisers, UL, several posters and everyone else is in it too. That's why this looks so little like a scam because they got EVERYONE in on it.
I was talking about how long things SHOULD take. How long they actually will take is entirely unpredictable... Even the one month guesses could easily be made to look optimistic by our friends at WDRP with their typical lack of speed.
"While" by definition means "at the same time as". To me it's pretty clear (from the PR, at least what they said, not what will happen) that there are three things that need to happen: One is the unit being put back together, one is Robert hooking up the electrical stuff and running tests and the last is analyzing the 3 left ceramic parts as well as the busted one and reaching out to their manufacturer. Obviously testing can't start until the unit is put back together and the electrical part is done but it should not be delayed at all by the third issue, to do with the ceramic parts, hence the "while" in there, instead of "after". And reassembling the unit and hooking it up to a wall socket may easily be as fast as one day, there is no way it will take two weeks. Testing itself may take a week or so, if they want to get complete results, maybe a video etc. Other than delays for shipping or other problems it should not take too long to get results.
$1 pps was never something likely, not to me at least. In theory there is the possibility of that happening under ideal circumstances but it's not realistic to expect that. It was always my opinion that many of the positive opinions on this board weren't realistic or likely. That doesn't mean there isn't a lot of potential here, we could see 20c or higher in a year fairly easily.
My guess is he will start testing ASAP, like he said. If we have no results in a month I will seriously question their intentions or at least their ability to ever produce anything. There are only so many delays that can realistically be called a coincidence.
I don't think these years are the same, 2011 and 2012. Before it was obvious, at least to me, that they would not be in full production in a couple of months, like some people were saying on this board. By now they've had much more time for development and if they still have nothing then they either never planned to make it or can't... I might not sell only because by then they won't be worth anything, not because I still believe in the product.
If there's no heater by the end of this year then it's definitely game over on this company... I would say even 3 months without a finished product, even if it's not in production yet, would pretty much mean game over.
I think they have one unit and a pile of parts. That's generally the case with most prototypes, at least for smaller companies. Even true for very large companies in the very early stages. They may have more than one unit too, or various stages of development of that unit but yeah it did sound like they have only one main one... There are some disadvantages to producing multiple complete, fully functional units, especially since it's important they are all identical so any changes made to one need to be made to all of them. But there are almost no disadvantages at all to having multiple parts delivered from each manufacturer, once the specs are down additional parts are generally very cheap. And the advantages of having spare parts are obvious when developing and testing a prototype, when a lot of things go wrong and parts fail.
I don't understand why people imagine that they only had exactly four of these pieces of ceramic made. That is insane, who would do that... Especially something made of ceramic. One guy drops one by mistake and the entire operation is stuck for another month until another one is produced and shipped. They very clearly stated they will put everything together and test IMMEDIATELY and specifically for efficiency numbers. If they knew already they are missing one exchanger it would be ridiculous for them to say yes we will test immediately with a complete unit and only then to say oh, we realized we only have 3 chambers left...
It is possible there are going to be other delays but if they wanted to use this chamber failing as an excuse they would have been far far more negative in the PR saying things like "we hope we can make it work" "more work needed" etc etc, not what they said, which was "we're excited and everything is going great, no changes needed". If anything they should have been more worried then they sounded if one of the main components of the unit failed as soon as it was tested.
They didn't say anything at all about how the chamber was made. And they said they'd be back testing immediately, meaning most likely they have plenty of those parts. And they didn't say anything about ordering more. It would be really ridiculous to only make 4, especially something made of ceramic. And as far as cost goes, after you have the very first one made, the rest of them cost 1% of the price, the more of them you get the cheaper they are. The only problem was that it cracked, not that they don't have other ones. It's like Ford saying they're testing a new engine and they stop testing as soon as a gasket goes out cause they don't have another one.
All in all a good PR. Finally they describe exactly what they did, what happened, what they will do about it, why we need to wait longer and what they will do from now on. We could have used a lot more of those PRs. It's also great news that the efficiency numbers are about to be released.
However, the ceramic exchanger cracking/failing could be a problem. If they can't use that material we don't know how easy it will be to replace it with something else and how that will affect efficiency, cost, reliability etc. My gut feeling is it should not be incredibly hard to figure out something that withstands the pressure of municipal water but knowing Wanderport it could translate into more delays.
And for the ones laughing that the unit failed once connected to the water supply, it is not hard at all for the "hiccups", air bubbles, pressure differences, etc that the average water supply has, to crack a piece of ceramic. The forces involved in fluids can be pretty massive. I've seen a faucet blown clean off the sink.
K, thanks for the replies guys. I guess he just doesn't like me anymore for some reason... Some clarification this week would be nice, even if it isn't the BIG one. And yeah sushi, I feel the same way, wait and see but my gut feeling is it will pay off. Won't take much at all to make it go way higher than this, 10c or so.
Anybody manage to contact the company at all lately? I've had no luck at all and they used to be very good about replying within 24 hrs...
My friend Bob was there and he said he came away very impressed by the unit and the company. And I've known him longer than you...
Come on man, seriously... Of course we all know the AMF isn't accused of anything. Just like WDRP isn't... The only point was that being named in a hearing doesn't automatically make you directly accused of something. And the AMF being named in that hearing was a good example. Parties can be named for many different reasons.
Thanks for clearing that up for us. We were sure the AMF was accused of something... Now we know.
AMF IS a Respondent. Check your facts.
lololol
Soo... If by definition being mentioned as a respondent is automatically a "serious matter" then the AMF itself must be under very serious investigation for some really bad stuff, since it itself is on the list as a respondent for the coming hearing... Hmmm... I hope they're fair and don't go easy on themselves.
Heh... But really I don't think many people would actually believe that being on the respondent list means you are directly accused of something. Even the people claiming that don't believe it. If they did they would not waste time on this board...
And yet no dilution at all... Strange scam. Three years of PRs, meetings, contracting a tech company, working with a university, with UMC, flying to china, talking to investors, etc, all that effort so they can do what? Retired 130 million shares, extended the time when his 400 million one can be sold, weird approach for a scam.
It's just a really small operation, no funds, no man-hours, a picky "ducks in a row" inventor working part time, we just have to hope that they get it done sooner rather than later and the product sells reasonably well. Just like with any other investment there is a risk and a reward and everyone needs to decide if it is good enough for them or not. You may say it's too risky for you but just saying that it's an outright scam, with absolutely zero proof, that won't convince anyone over the age of 7...
Yeah all my emails were answered too... Maybe he's on holiday? Maybe they have something really great (or really bad...) going on?
He didn't reply to my last two emails. Don't know what's up but it's taking forever. And they're still into their old habit of promising things that never happen...
Beer's right, there's no problem with the speed they are doing things at. It's not like they actually spent 7 full years on this, like some try hard to have us believe. For a product like this and with their very limited resources and working part time they took what you would expect them to take.
But there is no excuse for the way they repeatedly said everything was ready to go. And not once or twice but many times, when they must have known full well they were nowhere near being in production. Maybe they were afraid people would lose interest, maybe they expected things to go faster, who knows, but investors are right to be mad about what they promised vs what they delivered.
Also, I seriously doubt we get news this week. Either very late this year or very early January. 6 days ago Robert had still not received the unit.
Technically all I was told was that the unit was being shipped from the box manufacturer to Design 1st, if I remember right. This was a while back, maybe 3 weeks or so... I assume the reason it went there was to come up with a prettier box but he didn't say anything specific about it. But they did specifically (and publicly) say they would replace the one at the meeting at some point. And that manufacturers would bring their own ideas and preferences for the look into it. I believe it was in the PR. Anyway the bottom line is people should not complain about that box because it isn't the final one.
Great post. But I'm sure everyone on this board already agrees with all of that. And I do mean everyone...
As far as some complaining about the look of the box earlier, the box has already been replaced with a more attractive one. They have very specifically stated that was a temporary solution and a larger size to make it easier to work on.
Wow, talk about original content, haven't seen this informative post before...
Might happen but doubt it. Last time I spoke to him, maybe 2-3 days ago he said they still hadn't received the unit from Design 1st. His answers were very non-committal as far as timeline really, no actual information...
Wow, quiet day. Anybody talk to Andrew? Manage to get anything definitive out of him? I had no such luck. My gut feeling is we're getting news start of Jan, not before then...
Ha, ha, ha... Who are these "some"?
If you keep the water in there longer there are two ways to keep a particular molecule of water (or a particular cubic inch or whatever measure) in the field of energy, once is to keep the same flow speed but have a larger pipe, which means a higher volume of water which increases the energy needed in the equation. The other way is to move the water slower which reduces your throughput and might make it too small for the average shower.
The bottom line is Hockmir is 100% right, the energy you get out in the form of hotter water has to be equal to the energy you put in as electricity minus whatever losses. It's very basic physics and completely independent of whatever technology is used to transfer the heat. However, the way he looks at it, from a purely theoretical point of view, that assumes the water continuously flows through is not the way the average heater works and is not the way marketing people look at it. Since there will be some efficiency gained from the improved response speed, from the reduced losses from a heated resistor once the water is turned off, maybe fewer heat losses from the box itself, there could easily be an actual 10% improvement in "juice" needed over a year or so. This, combined with the fact that it might be cheaper, easier to install, smaller, more reliable over time etc etc etc or maybe just a cool novel technology might easily be enough to make it a very successful product. That said, if they claim efficiency improvements of 30% or more over existing tankless electrical heaters i would be very very skeptical.
Yeah the market worldwide is so huge for all the possible uses combined (or even just residential water heating) that even if they get a tiny tiny sliver of it we'll still be really happy. Can't wait. Unfortunately it's taking forever, doubt we get numbers by the end of the year at this rate. My guess would be first half of january. Might be wrong if testing is very fast...
Nice find. Says Open to Public Inspection: 2011-12-10. Wonder how they decide when it becomes open...
And don't worry, the conspiracy theories will come, they always do lately :)
Think it's time for me to buy some more, bring on the cheapies...
Yeah, it is a good post. It's well documented too, you can tell he did a lot of research lol...
That's pretty much what my expectations are too. Maybe 50% or so over that at times because of excitement, spikes etc. But not over 50c in the near future, at least a year, probably more.
The bottom line here is that they are really out of excuses and delays. Casing is done, Design 1st did their thing with the thermocouples and checking for leaks, not waiting for anything from a third party, no parts missing, the surgery is done... And unlike before, they have stated very clearly they will come out with numbers and even a video in the very near future. Once that happens there is no way the pps won't at the very very least double and then slowly go much higher as a manufacturer gets involved, UL tests it and so on. Even if it isn't a hugely revolutionary product (which is possible but I will believe when I see it) it will still be really worth owning the stock.
I'm really wondering what you will say in 2-3 weeks or sooner when we do get some kind of numbers. I'm sure you won't say ok, I stand corrected, there are the numbers. It will be something along the lines of the numbers aren't verifiable. Once another 2-3 weeks go by and we get third party testing you will say that those guys are part of the scam too, just like Design 1st, Dave Myers and every one else is now. Once a manufacturer comes in and the product is on the shelves you will say the Bloods and Crips joined the Hells Angels who are already involved... Am I about right?
Heh I like how you dropped that (longish) reference to that guy in there, all casual... nice.
If you are "fascinated" by scams there are far far better pennies to study where it's far more obvious that it's a scam. You will be disappointed here. They're just slow and a little incompetent.
It really sounds like there aren't a lot of things left that could cause a delay. Once the unit reaches them that's it, no more third parties involved, either they come out with results or if there is any other relatively major delay everyone will just pack their toys and leave. I think with just a little more patience we should have very good things to talk about. For now lets just try to not respond to every post out there. By now we know where everyone stands, we are all entitled to our opinions and should just coexist peacefully. Once someone has posted the same thing ten times it is a waste for the rest of us to debate that point every single time. It's more productive to just debate in a constructive way with those who want to do it.
That's true, they did say that and that's still the case i'm sure, now more than ever. I'm sure we'll have our new friends here hang on for dear life even after third party results come out. But this is what they said in the last PR:
The MCMHU displayed in Burlington is presently in the hands of Wanderport's contracted design firm where engineers are adding thermocouples and testing water tightness. Wanderport estimates receipt of the MCMHU in the next few days and will wire up the unit and commence beta-testing. Upon completion, Wanderport intends to publicize these preliminary results and considers this information to be fundamental in its endeavour to strike strategic alliance agreements with manufacturers. Agreements of this nature would include the fabrication of a number of field units available for dealer testing and samples to be delivered to Underwriters Laboratories (UL®) for the purpose of advancing discussions of a "new and innovative" category for the heat engine technology.
To me that says they'll make the numbers public before a third party gets involved. Also, they said they'd have the unit quite a while ago and right now they might still not have it yet...
I think if they wait to have third party numbers there is no way they're coming out this year. It would be technically possible with a large company that does stuff on time, but no way with WDRP. But it was my understanding that they are not trying to get third party numbers at this stage. What they said was they would test it internally, publicize those numbers and use them to get a manufacturer who will then produce an initial batch of units and some of those will be sent away for third party testing, maybe UL safety testing and so on. And if that is the case, since they probably already have the unit by now, or are about to, it should not take long at all for them to run it for a few days and have results by the end of the year. They are obviously very familiar with the unit, have worked with it a lot and they won't test every single scenario possible so should not take very long. Could be out by the end of the year easily.
That's pretty much exactly what Andrew said about 3 days ago. Although by the timelines they gave in the meeting and PR they should be further along by now.