Lovin' it !
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What ever happend to the all "cash" "buyout" ??? LOL.
Seems like I have seen this line before:
Either YOUR "IN" or JUST CRYING on the FENCE !!!!
Great "dd" !
LOL
It is 100% correct. The amount of a company's NOL does not change if they did/didn't take tarp. The amount of an NOL doesn't change. However, if a company took tarp, they can't take advantage of the 5-year carryback provision. They can still carry it forward.
As some like to say, the "LAW" is the LAW.
Actually, the NOLs could go to JPM even though they took tarp. Ownership of NOLs has nothing to do with taking tarp or not. The amount of NOLs does not change if somebody took tarp. What changes is what they can do with the NOLs. Institutions that took tarp did not/will not lose their NOLs, they simply can't carry them back 5 years, and this is not imo, this is the way it is.
WMI will only get a tiny fraction of the NOLs, but I guess you will have to wait until you learn the way it is.
You need to examine the applicable tax laws surrounding NOLs.
Just as I suspected. There is no $3 billion that WMB owes WMI for taxes paid.
Sorry!
I am not wrong. WMB owes WMI no money for taxes that WMI supposedly paid for WMB.
That simply isn't true. It is another baseless claim like the claim that the bank had an "extra" $20 billion.
Nice play on KOOL. Nice timing!
Today's ruling did make it clear that WMI and WMB were/are different entities/businesses.
That is good as far as the elimination of claims, however, it is also clear support for the fact that WMI is not entitled to WMB's NOLs. WMI indeed was not WMB, and therefore they do not get to enjoy the NOLs. (There are laws that spell it out as well, but today's ruling should make this a little more clear to some of the NOL dreamers.)
Congratulations , and SORRY!
The FDIC didn't seize a holding company.
There will be no interest paid if/when the money is ever turned over.
Sorry!
Look for a pull-back to atleast near the 50-day area imo without news.
The 50-day seems to be moving up 2-3 cents per day, and should be at about 1.63-1.64 tomorrow, so I would expect it to get to the 1.65-1.70 range shortly before the next move. However, the accum/dist looks to be about bottomed out on the 26-day daily, as is the money flow, momo, and obv, so one would think they should turn up sooner than later. I'm not in, but I read your post and checked the chart.
Good luck to you sir!
Now that the worthless Gregory cross represents "the EC" (the same EC that Bonderman isn't even on), he has a front-row seat at the table so he can pull up his chair and get a close-up view of the creditors eating their cake.
BQI imo, we are near "the bottom" here. Today's low of .75 was the low on May 1st, and the only other "low" was .71 on April 30th. I think today was "the bottom, and I pulled the trigger and bought in. It might go down to .71, but is should be starting its ascent shortly.
As far as BBI, they will definitely file for bankruptcy, and if you are going to play it, get in at .40-.41 and out at .42-.44 and never hold it overnight. Thanks for the info about the stores closing by you, and imo that is pretty telltale.
Hope you are well!
There is nothing worthwhile on the agenda for tomorrow.
It is never too late, and it is too easy to get in and out. People have been saying that it is "too risky" to be "out", and a settlement could happen at "anytime", and blah blah blah, but that is pure ridiculousness.
It won't go up until it goes down again imo.
Tomorrow will be a buy and a sell imo. Play the swings and trade it up, but don't hurt yourself by buying and simply holding.
"Sell, buy, sell, buy" is correct buddy. That is the way to play wamuq. The way not to play it is to buy and hold for some grand payday that will never happen. If you buy and hold, you will simply be watching other people make money. wamuq is a trade, it always has been, it is now, it always will be, and it will never be anything more than that.
Yesterday was a buy, and today was a sell. Looks like tomorrow it will sink again as it looks like it will be a snoozer hearing.
Just think of how much money everyone could have made if they actually had the guts to buy and sell.
Too funny!
The only time I lose is when I get greedy and stay in too long. When I get in and out quickly is when I do the best. 5-10% per trade is what I am trying to focus on.
Eight 10% trades with the initial investment and gains re-invested = 100% on your money.
Sixteen 5% trades (4 per week) with the initial investment and gains re-invested = 100% on your money.
If you can pull off four 5% trades per week and reinvest the initial investment and gains each time you would double your money once a month.
Find the ones that are down big on the day and immediately set your sell order at a price that will give you a 5% gain and call it a victory.
That is the new "program" .
FWIW, imo CTZN, AMFI, CRBC ,FSNM, and others will all get seized and they are nothing more than a trade, and I would not recommend holding any regional bank too long, and never, ever, ever hold a regional bank over a weekend as it is too risky imo.
Sold out of AMFI. Earnings are due out today and didn't want to risk getting trapped in, however, it broke through the 10-day and will likely test 1.03 today imo. I just hopped into DEAR as with only 6.4 million in the float and earnings of .55/share reported recently, imo, it is going to make another nice move again soon.
BQI is starting to look pretty juicy here imo.
It hit a low of about .81 on Friday, and looking back at the chart, it hit a low of .71 in April, so I would recommend getting it on radar and watch for a pullback into the .70s.
It is probably a buy right now in the low .80s, but if you want to be safe, hold off on a purchase until the .70s.
There was recently a private placement sale of like 7 million shares not too long ago, and the shares were purchased at 1.05.
imo, BQI will go back over $1.00 very soon which will make for a nice 25% + gainer, or if you want to get out under a buck then it will be easy % points regardless.
Worth a look...............
DEAR is looking juicy right now in the 1.51-1.55 range.
It hit 1.50 (just under the 10-day), and it looks like it is ready to move up again real soon.
Also, a reminder that AMFI looks like it is about to bust a move again soon also.
CTZN made a nice move the last couple of days and will likely test the .49-.55 "support" areas again before it busts another move imo.
Yeah, the judge in the wamuq did not rule to "disband" the equity committee (there were no legal precedents that would allow her to do so and since the UST appointed it (which imo is a cover their a$$ move) and since nobody can prove that they are hopelessly insolvent, she ruled to allow the equity committee to remain in tact. However, I am more than certain that the WMI attornies are correct when they say that equity is not going to be in the money, and even an EC can't pull money out of a hat. If the creditors aren't paid at 100 cents on the dollar, then equity gets nothing, and there is no way, imo, that WMI is going to turn over all of their cash to their creditors and instead will pay them with new securities which will render the current WMI securities 100% worthless and will lead to their cancellation. It had a pop, but looks like the selling is going to break through the bids at .19. I think a lot of people were thinking it was going to shoot up and that the shorts were going to start covering, but imo, neither of those things will ever happen. Next week the judge will rule to have JPM turnover WMI's 4 billion in cash, and it is possible that there will be another little pop, but that cash is already on their MOR and won't change the overall economics of the case.
Keep an eye on Ambac , in particular their debentures that trade under the ticker symbol AKT.
AKT is currently trading at about 6 bucks, and if they file for bk, it will likely dive into the sub-dollar range which would be a good time to buy them up as they have a $25 face, and if you can get them for a dollar or under, that would be like getting them at 4 cents on the dollar. If they indeed file for bk, even a recovery of 30 cents on the dollar would put each debenture at $7.50 (which would be a great return if they do file and AKT tanks), and if they don't file for bk, then AKT is a great buy in the 5-6 range in which it is currently trading at. If they can post decent numbers and don't file , imo AKT will go from 6 to $20 in no time.
What's the big deal, and why are there so many congratulations being thrown around?
The EC was already appointed, there are no legal precedents that would justify the disbanding of the EC (the UST appointed the EC and now the UST's a** is covered), and now the EC has a seat at the table so they can see first-hand that equity will receive nothing as "the plan" will soon show(except for the preferreds which might get some warrants(which is the best they can hope for)).
Like I have said before, an EC can't pull money out of a hat, and as reasonable attornies already know, there simply isn't enough money to go around as it relates to equity.
By the way, the only time there will be a halt is when the reorganization plan is filed that calls for the issuance of new securities.
AMFI looks like it is getting ready to move again. The 50-day around .88 seems to be holding plenty strong, and I bought again right before the bell around .90 . Should be making another upward move soooon.
Reminder: Only 23 Million shares outstanding and there are currently about 3.3 Million shorts out there (about 15% of the float).
(CTZN has been seeing increased buying and volume as well FWIW)
REPLY OF WASHINGTON MUTUAL, INC.
AND WMI INVESTMENT CORP. IN FURTHER
SUPPORT OF MOTION FOR AN ORDER (A) DISBANDING
THE OFFICIAL COMMITTEE OF EQUITY HOLDERS APPOINTED
BY THE US TRUSTEE OR (B) LIMITING THE FEES
AND EXPENSES WHICH MAY BE INCURRED BY SUCH COMMITTEE
"3. But, such steps cannot be confused with ultimate success on the merits.
As the Debtors and the other parties to the litigations (both original and by intervention) have
claimed, there are many years of discovery and litigation ahead, not including the numerous
years in the appellate courts that will surely follow. There are intricate legal theories and factual
questions to be unwound and answered. While the Debtors hope for and anticipate ultimate
success, there are no givens in these litigations. So, to argue that because the Debtors have
asserted over $20 billion in claims against other parties, but have scheduled liabilities of only approximately $8 billion, equity will see a recovery is naive. Such an argument, at best,
blatantly ignores reality. At worst, it uses incompatible data in an effort to mislead this Court."
"4. The economics of these cases are more complex than the Equity
Committee intimates. If one wants to wave the $20 billion number in front of this Court, one
needs to keep in mind the more than $50 billion in unsecured claims filed against the Debtors'
chapter 11 estates, plus unknown amounts of unliquidated claims. Thus, even using the Equity
Committee's math, the Debtors are insolvent by many billions of dollars. So, while the Debtors
would be ecstatic to provide a recovery for equity security holders, any such distribution is
extremely remote, if that."
"5. Lastly, the Equity Committee has failed to establish that it is necessary to
ensure shareholders' adequate representation. The Equity Committee has not alleged, because it
cannot, that the Debtors have, in any way, failed to seek to maximize the recovery of these
estates. Indeed, as noted above, the Debtors have zealously prosecuted the various litigation
claims. The Equity Committee implicitly agrees, since its main concern is not with the Debtors'
prosecution of the litigation claims. Rather, it fears that the Debtors will settle such claims at an
amount that would preclude a recovery for equity holders. So, realistically, the only thing that
the Equity Committee would be interested in doing, at the appropriate time, would be to
challenge such settlement as outside the "range of reasonableness." With such a limited
function, the Equity Committee is simply not necessary at this juncture."
I. The Court Should Employ a de novo Standard of Review.....
II. The Statutory Predicates for the Appointment
of an Equity Committee Have Not Been Met.....
III. Equity Holders are Adequately Represented...
http://www.ghostofwamu.com/documents/08-12229/08-12229-2223.pdf
Bank Bondholders' Response to the Opposition of the Official Committee of Equity Security Holders to Debtors' Motion for an Order (A) Disbanding Such Committee or (B) Limiting the Fees and Expenses Which May be Incurred by Such Committee
http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0812229/0812229100125000000000013.pdf
This document pretty much tells it like it is.
(****pure fantasy****)
JPM needs to hit 39.70 before the markets will turn back up imo.
It hit 39.73 and has made bounces, but it needs to hit 39.70 to really test it.
BTW, CTZN only has like 8 million shares outstanding and 1 million of them are short, so I stick with CTZN to make a move real soon. There is support at .55 imo , and that thing could turn on a dime.
CTZN - I think it's looking good here and should make atleast a 10% move here real soon imo.
I sold AMFI late yesterday (looks they might take it down again but it will make a huge move soon again too imo)
I played NEXM for an easy 10% + gainer today, and you might want to watch that one and maybe get some at about .55 if they drop it down again.
Wamook is correct, and therefore it is not nonsense.
What is nonsense, are the posts that claim that since WMI is in chapter 11 the creditors don't need to be made whole before the preferreds get paid, and it is also nonsense when people claim that the preferreds do not need to be made whole before the commons see any recovery.
It does not make one bit of difference if a company is in chapter 7 or chapter 11 with regards to PRIORITY.
If one class receives less than 100 cents on the dollar, the class that follows the class that was not made whole gets absolutely nothing.
Wamook is correct.
It's too bad an EC can't change the numbers and eliminate the claims against WMI.
Sorry, equity holders are, and will continue to be, out of the money, AND, new shares WILL be issued in order to compensate their creditors as turning over all of their cash is not in the cards.
The problem for the common and the preferred holders is that WMI will only get a small portion of the NOLs/tax refund, but it will be just enough to make them solvent, and if they are deemed solvent, then they lose the capital contribution recovery among other things imo. As far as the DC action goes, it is a long-shot and there is a long line in front of WMI as far as recovery goes related to the sale price of the banks.
WMI will not be making their creditors whole by forking over all of their cash (obviously), as if they did that, they would have zero operating capital. The creditors will be paid in newly issued securities, and there is no way around it.
New securities will be issued, and that is when you'll see a new cusip.
Opposition of the Official Committee of Equity Security Holders to Debtors' Motion for an Order (A) Disbanding Such Committee or (B) Limiting the Fees and Expenses Which May be Incurred by Such Committee
http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0812229/0812229100121000000000001.pdf
Pretty weak, and it almost looks like a message-boarder wrote it imo.
Check out this...
Black Horse Capital Management LLC's (I) Response to Debtors' Motion for an Order (A) Disbanding the Official Committee of Equity Holders Appointed by the United States Trustee or (B) Limiting the Fees and Expenses Which May be Incurred by Such Committee; and (II) Request for Alternative Relief Consisting of a Reconstituted Committee of Certain Preferred Equity Holders
http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0812229/0812229100121000000000002.pdf
Commons will get absolutely nothing, preferreds might get some warrants (that is the best they can hope for), and the bond trading still tells the story.
The writing is on the wall.
Re-testing 1.11s with about an hour left of trading. . If they keep buying and people don't sell, it could get fun.... or it could tip over the wrong way. We'll see.
AMFI HOD 1.11, if it keeps going it will get real interesting.
There is a "hidden"' bid at 1.07 for 40k on the bid fwiw, (edit, they pulled it)
It sure has been trading pretty for the last couple of hours I'll tell ya...
200 day is at 1.10 , 250 day is at 1.15, 20 day is at about 1.20, and imo, if it breaks through those, it will run up to the 300-day at 1.488 .
It looks like it wants to break loose, and when it runs, it runs hard.
Hey, did you see CTZN? It dipped below the 50-day for about 1 second and then ran up from .5616 to .66 in about 2 minutes.
These regionals with low floats are the plays imo.
2 times zero = zero
If you hold until "the end" , that is exactly what you will get for your wamuq shares.
Do you really believe that???
The FACT is that nothing could be further from the truth.
Do you really think that WMI gets the money for shares that are traded on a daily basis???
hahaha
"the shares that sell now the money goes to wmi"