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Penny stocks spiking I believe are common for market tops.
The Dec 23 should end the second fast spike in the indices, There should be another small nominal top with negative divergences in the indicators a couple weeks later or so. Individual issues and particularly small caps should have rotational spikes during that time I think. There's nothing to chart on your stock, it's been flat for years and only a recent spike.
RUT revision: 1312 as minimum drop and slight chance of 1280. I need to redo the 2 hr and longer RUT charts to confirm a top as high as 1480. I'm thinking the FOMC (if we get the correction before) will go for an 1/8 point rise maybe at most. I figure the Feds will stick it to Trump at their Jan 31 announcement with something larger.
Log chart verses linear? My good friend Blacktruck that passed in 2012 was a firm believer in using linear charts with forks, said "why would you use a manipulated chart with a fork" I however continued using my semi log charts. The last week or so I found a better fit with linear for the current patterns and have only had a problem with the long term RUT which is the red "X"ed one below.
There can be huge differences in the two different chart settings.
The third is a semi log chart and if this is the one we should be using has the ML at about 1480 and we would expect to hit that level minimum, however pay attention to the blue fork which doesn't seem to fit. My previous RUT post had a top at 1418
the first below was posted in a previous post and two new ones.
I think we still need a hard down wave before another up.
The Dec 14 FOMC is getting near and if we were to have a second panic buying rally, it needs to start tomorrow I believe. From past FOMC announcements, the market should start a consolidation about now into the announcement, however, it seems that good news has a previous down getting ready for a big up and bad news would be reversed and go up getting ready for a big down.
EDIT: the second INDU chart was for commenting that INDU has not had a decent correction yet.
Sentiment indicators supporting the previous post targets:
SPX daily 13,8,3 sto above 95, MA cluster at 2150ish. ( if we only make 2150 down, the top target can be considered at 2250 for a C = A wave ratio)
SPX 2 hr: The MA cluster just below 2150, price is now above the hard to move quickly 240,2 BB setting
NAMO above 60 and a very small move which predicts a large move coming.
SPX 60, monthly and RUT 60: Notes on the chart with some explanation of my thoughts trying to make the wave pattern make perfect sense. The trading range mess of 2015 March to July should not be a topping wave, but a "B" making a new high. The note showing the previous wave top can be either without changing the ML. Our current position shows a tag of price to this ML and now predicted to fall to 2142ish before going up to the 2300ish target.
The monthly chart shows the blue ML in the 2300 position waiting for a tag from underneath now.RUT at bottom shows the A,B,C in the dark green fork that is referenced in SPX 60 chart as " a believable a,b,c pattern" I'm not sure about either the down or top targets for RUT yet although the 1400 top is best for now.
All these targets rhyme with the necessary new high for the NYA index.
It would be expected that with the combined economic reports (durable goods yesterday was a big plus surprise) unemployment levels and a huge market run up that the Feds would raise interest at the Dec 14 announcement, maybe even a 1/2 point increase? I have the SPX chart timeline set at Friday, Dec 9
and only three days before the announcement. The recent big up week was 5 days for 99 points and the predicted 160 points should take at least 8 days with the same velocity.
Thanks northram, However I'm looking for a rhyme of the two circles in the chart. I need a 3% drop tomorrow/Friday and the day before thanksgiving dropping that much is unusual. There's a durable goods order first thing and FOMC minutes of the last announcement at 2:00, I think I need a durable goods order that's disturbing.
JK, We hit your ES 2195 :)
NYA, SPX and NYA again: NYA is very significant as it is the only happy family index to need a new high. The obvious and only good wave ratio and fork fit is shown and an A x 1.618 after hitting 10520 would best the 2015 high by 1 point (see bottom chart for NYA 1 hr) Then using the same percentage drop and A x 1.618 for the final C, SPX would hit 2142 and then 2302 for the top.
Hi Porter, hope you're well.
Yea, I could see it stay in an extended moderate trading range.
NYA chart, RUT,BKX made new all time highs and leaves NYA as the only significant index I'm aware of to exceed the 2015 highs and complete a happy family. I have this chart timeline set to Dec 5 (my other charts have been pointing to Nov 22 as of yesterday) and a double top with the 2015 high (1 point higher) It has quite a way to go and it doesn't seem probable to do it sooner. If NYA were to fail to make the new high, it could be considered a more bullish pattern for the overall market as it would suggest we would need to come back for that.
Nasa, I think we're due after this run for at least a sizeable correction. The INDU chart has two forks with possible outcomes.Blue is much more bullish, yet still drops about 25% and the dark green loses 2/3rds of everything. I've been putting in a bit of time with the long term lately and will post charts as I see they're worth posting. Just to keep in mind, two term presidents since 2000 have left the following president holding the bag and now more than ever, world markets are tied at the hip and it seems that the economic pillars of the world are all having one foot on a banana peel and the other in the grave. Any one of those pillars to fall will cause the rest to domino.
SPX,RUT 60: SPX went up 98 points at the top for the week and should start next week with a pull back to the BB ML and top of the yellow down fork which would be a retest of the breakout. RUT did better than 10% for the week and captured nearly the entire move I anticipated. Difficult to target a correction, yet I would think it should be much deeper than SPX for Monday.
SPX daily, RUT 1 hr: The three indicators below the SPX chart are all at bottom levels, RSI, 5,1 and 14,3,3 sto.
RUT is at the absolute lowest before trashing my chart, the top black fork base anchor is at the previous low and the ML is right at 1297 which is 1 point above the existing high and what we need to make the family happy. However there's still a chance if we start up tomorrow. The pink diagonal is the same as the last V bottom and would have us top by the 18th which is options ex week and there's a ton of puts out there now.
SPX 60 min: Hi Northram, thanks for stopping in. Your cycle work is in line with my forks, I'm looking for 2213 on Nov 17th now. We should get a strong spike up first this coming week. Although it should be noter the 13,8,3 full stochastic on this chart, NAMO and NYMO and advance decline and TICK all have room for another drop.
SPX daily, That 140 MA target is still valid and futures went down past that level last night as well. The 13,8,3 on the SPX 30, 60 and 2 hr charts have room to reach it also. Many other indices (RUT hit the 140 MA) and individual issues have a look like they made the bottom yesterday, however SPX is being difficult.
SPX daily has a valid target to the 140MA which is in line with the lower BB at the 2125 target. I added another light green fork on the 5 min and looks good with todays low, however 2125 would be best and help bring that pesky 13,8,3 sto on the 2 hr chart down to reasonable or preferably OS level. RUT chart on bottom is closer to the target at 1205 or lower