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Someone asked what % decline triggers halt
I sold the MAR 1435 S&P at open and reloaded with some 1400's.
BIDU may be the good short equity play ???
Vista follows the pattern of all MSFT OS's , the latest one always requires more computing power to produce the same performance of the task running in the foreground then the previous one.
Also, it is a memory hog and cranks the hard drive aggressively.
I haven't been posting much because market direction has been pretty much in one direction, up. I like to play both ends of options trades and I don't see much sanity in writing short side of trade.
POG went up 3% today and oil is over $60. Maybe more volatility is on the horizon.
Have you been bundling it with Vista OS. From what I've seen so far, it is mixed bag. It is so, so, plus to have it on initial startup find your printer drivers and guess what type of internet connection you have.
On the flip side, one can wait same 10 minutes and it guessed wrong on what you you wanted to do for an upgrade. For example, I plugged old Windows XP hard drive as secondary drive on Vista Home system and when I accessed drive it told me I didn't have administrative rights to data on drive so I had to put it back onto Windows XP system and then transport data via flash memory stick.
I haven't tried the Vista USB cable to transfer files from older systems but I assume it will be as equally lame.
Great OS for selling at Walmart and Costco requiring little or no support for home users.
More troublesome is MSFT's attempt to preload trial versions of Office and have you buy paper license SKU that is valid for initial registration purposes for 90 days before becoming inactive.
Not too much use for cable unless your easily entraced and entertained by Fox news or have kids and need disney & Nickeloden.
I live in a valley in Central NJ midway between NYC & Philadelphia. One end of the valley points to Philadelphia while end heading to NYC is totally walled off by a long ridge which leads to no NY radio or TV reception.
I don't think I could possibly live with only the Eagles games and without the Jets and Giants games on Sunday.
over at Goldman Sachs cause that's legal way to steal
I been lurking for a while but I just had to comment that in NJ we got ex CEO of GS Jon Corzine as governor who plans to sell the NJ Turnpike and Garden Sate Parkway to foreigners and GS will likely be advising the State on one side for a fee and they will be investing in the foreign entities on the other.
Our state is so much in deficit that Corzine's likely solution is to sell the public arenas, train stations and anything else that can be pawned for 3-4 generations for the quick budget fix.
Somehow I think the Christine Whitman's privatization of some state agencies to Republican political insiders and McGreevy's ill advised buyback of state bonds in a declining bond interest rate environment just to churn some commissions to the bond brokers who contributed heavily to the Democrats will pale in comparison to the fleecing we will get now.
He's runs a garden center in TX.
In NJ, day laborers picked up from the city streets run $100 for the day for landscaping, roofing and mason assistants.
You can't hire anyone born in US who could pass a drug and background test and who plans to stay for more then 2 weeks on the job for less then $25 per hour.
Then in 1982, the Reagan administration with ex Merrill Lynch boss Donald Regan at the helm of the treasury got everyone and I mean everyone to put their retirement money into the stock market.
PS a friend of mine who was an ex AT&T CTO officer laid off in 2002 is very happy now that finally his first batch of stock options granted in the 90's by old AT&T company at $31 are now in the money.
It starts to get you wondering that maybe stock prices are getting up there in price again.
I get close to highway sticker value on all 4 of my cars as calculated by instantaneous mileage computers on GM cars when driving on flat ground without accelerating. Go up any hill and you drop below way below city mileage value. You get very good mileage going downhill. Work is about 400 ft below home elevation and I get about 2 MPG better than highway value to work and 2 MPG worst than highway value going back home. I just haven't figured out a way to go downhill in both directions to and from work <g>.
The very new trannys have the ability to know when to lay off throttle and basically coast going downhill.
I got a 96 S10 with V6 and mileage is about 17 overall. You must have the 4 cyl version.
RE BTK & DNA
DNA got some bad news on Avastin today which is setting them back some. However, BTK not suffering as of yet as money seems to be flowing out of DNA and into the balance of the index constituents but since DNA is such a large percentage of index it is hard to image the complment of stocks to handle all the money coming out of DNA.
What is chart predicting for BTK to revisit support at 625
Our coalition on terror showing major cracks. I was going to comment last night about Blair's Labor Party defecting but by this morning it is fait accompli. Canada's opposition Labor Party wants out of Afghanistan as well.
Pakistan is very close to full blown civil war with President Musharraf and Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz aka Harvard Boy facing off with various Islamic feudalists sects.
Back to stock market
QCOM & SNDK
Both have solid earnings prospects going forward. Do you see some support coming up on charts.
the worst one in nearly 30 years. We'll see.
You got me going back to my youth.
Back in June 1969 my dad was doing well in the stock market and asked get of his 3 teenage children to pick out a stocks to invest $2,000 each in gift to minors accounts we had. I picked Lockheed whose chart back then looked like it does now. It when up $2 to almost $70 that day to set new 52 week high and it seemed they could do no wrong because of the war in Vietnam, my brother picked Celenase maybe because he liked his polyester shirts, and my sister picked Exxon maybe because she got driven somewhere everyday by my mother at 30 cents per gallon.
Looking at LMT, it took 8 years to 1977 for it to get back to that $70 value.
Somedays I think we got same problems and issues now as back in 1969. Johnson got economy so pumped up with Vietnam, space race and the cold war and Nixon expanded medicare, medicaid and food stamp programs so the draft wouldn't look as unpalitiable to poor people who primarily fought the war that inflation got way out of control.
Today the government does big time deficit spending but individuals supersize it with trade inbalance of $200 per person per month month after month. Soldiers who fight in Iraqi are soldiers of fortune pure and simple.
At some point, the recession has to happen.
RE BTK
It is where dumb money are piling in hard and heavy after buy signal yesterday. DNA & AMGN now rising after having slow start. You can buy all the medical device and test equipment names like ISRG BLUD DIGE and do OK.
Ditto for QCOM SNDK and the other household tech names.
PS CUBT
got mention of their drug in AP story
The good news: MRSA infections contracted outside a hospital are easier to treat. The study found that several antibiotics work against them, including some sulfa drugs that have been around for decades. A separate study in the journal reports the effectiveness of Cubicin, an antibiotic recently approved to treat bloodstream infections and heart inflammation caused by MRSA.
semis look good all of a sudden
Why qualify everything look good all of a sudden <g>
RE AMGN
What's up with them. I am expected a $1-2 up day soon.
I've got a old GMC pickup and when it need repair I can count on them for sub $100 repair with Chinese parts and immigrant labor.
Do you know of anyone whose lost their pension or retirement incomes by their delibrate actions or are you supplier on the other side of their bargining table who feels some pain.
How can you not like Manny, Moe and Jack.
There an institution in NJ & PA area
Many a retail chains, whether they be leb scam artists(Crazy Eddie Antar), leveraged buyout disasters (Hermans sporting Goods) and nascent REITS(VNO's Two Guys retail chain) holding the real estate, have come and gone while they are still there.
Your peaks in S&P chart happen right before release of jobs data during the 1st week of month for the last 4 months.
The fact that this chart counts data that covers premarket data from 8:30 AM time frame when jobs data is released does accentuates dramatically the shifts in market sentiment that one can't see as clearly and cleanly when looking at S&P charts for open market data.
RE ISRG
I noticed that Newark Star Ledger has page 1 story on ISRG new da Vinci S device.
There's a new da Vinci in town -- but this one is devoted to the surgeon's art.
Newark Beth Israel Medical Center is opening its Robotic Training Center, featuring the new $1.5 million da Vinci S Surgical System. The new system allows for greater precision in performing minimally invasive operations.
Doctors from all over the world are expected to train at the center -- one of only three sites in the country to have the latest da Vinci robot. The other two are The Methodist Hospital in Houston, affiliated with the Weill Medical College of Cornell University, and the Sunnyvale, Calif., headquarters of the robot's manufacturer, Intuitive Surgical Inc.
I think bear has caught him already and gnawed on the hind leg a little. It's leaving the lame bull's juicer cuts of meat ready to serve at any time.
YUP more then 50% of my positions right now are short SEP CALL options in the money.
I closed out most of AUG short PUTs except for the 3 that I mentioned earlier. I am assuming top is in for this month options and next 4-5 weeks it only gets worse like my typing.
RE CA
You would be better off betting on when Charles Wang changes front office personnel at the Islanders hockey team next then making investment decisions based upon their earnings.
PS If "up" day in market has 100+ pt intraday loss in DOW, I hate to see a down day.
We have been in tight trading range for 3 months. Nothing on the inflationary/recessionary horizon would lead one to believe that next breakout in trading range is to the upside.
I only have small handful of long plays AMGN DNA NVDA left
closed SNDK & JCOM longs this morning and went short JCOM ISRG & RIMM
Still short DIGI GRMN NTRI GILD CEPH SGMS XMSR
(I borrowed most of Justin's ideas <g>)
hedged for option premium on the rest.
I just got my first summer time electric bill from my commerical electric company.
Our usage went down 17% and bill is up 5%.
Basic energy charge went from 7 cents kwh top 10 cents.
Transmission costs up 25-30% as well.
I needed some things from HD today and the clearance stuff that should have blown out 7/31 still crowding the asiles making it hard to get around.
Just indicative of either slow foot traffic or more crap they been starting to stock that would just not sell.
Just like as S&P avr. would take one step back and 2 steps forward as each cruise missile fell in Baghdad in 2003, Hezbollah is plainly getting it ass kicked and forced out of S Lebanon and probably Beirut going forward the net result.
No rise in average will be long sustaining as tempered by options expiry & Iran UN intransigence.
Iran not going to be make it easy for indexes to stay up at EOM when UN deadlines for their nuclear program compliance approach.
Some posters require higher maintenance then others.
RE your call for lower market
Naz sum index
http://stockcharts.com/charts/indices/McSumNASD.html
It used to a chart to mark accurately when to buy at the bottom of channel and sell at the top of channel. Now it is just reminds me of crosses at the side of highway to mark where bullish rallies have abruptly ended.
2 things stand out
- the distribution from DEC to MAR, when I kept posted about all the stock I was assigned from short PUTs
- the 3rd failure in last 3 months to rally off chart lows which nicely coincides with markets reaction to monthly jobs data for Jun, Jul, Aug.
Hard to get too bullish like you know who right now when we get next jobs data in early SEP that should be more of the same thing (wages paid that are inflationary) that market doesn't like one IOTA and NAZ sum index should be close to -900. Where does market go but down if FED next rate hike is applied.
Difference between North Jersey and people from the boonies is more pronounced then that.
I have a test to detect if person is form in Northern NJ South or West of New Brunswick.
Ask them 1 question
What do you you put on Ice Cream? Sprinkles or Jimmies.
PS I once drove back from Atlantic City to Trenton area in a convertible to visit the in laws.
You have to drive over 55 to out run the mosquitoes.
I am from North NJ and root for Giants and my wife is from Trenton and only roots for Phiadlephia teams.
We have had cable for years but on a windy day the old antenna on the house fell down, I was ordered to put new one up because it was pointed South to Phila not North to NYC and it was only way for her to watch the Eagles.
You have no idea how hard it is to have found that antenna.
Which has worse management in the board room/arena
CA
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writers/michael_farber/07/18/smith.reax/index.html
or
CVC
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=2501271
PS Had CVC been added to options back dating list. Dolan has such free rein to do stupid things. I can't the stooges in accounting have the guts not to back date their options.
I think NVDA surprises to the upside. With the purchase of ATI by AMD to provide in house captive technology for intergrated video for the sub $400 PC AMD dominates in, NVDA is left standing alone in high end engineering and multimedia arenas.
The banning of liquids on flights may mean that they were possibly trying to make nitrocellose from nitric acid and your average ordinary cotton clothing.
They cold only pull off that type of slow form of chemical reaction on longer duration transatlantic flights.
Intel's current response is to standardize laptop components. At least your generic battery would be cheap and readily available. However, they state it may take 5 years to take hold.
Sounds like the same idea like RDRAM where they could standardize on 1 memory chip design for 90% of usage that would last for many years performance wise which would drive down price of memory to cost of production. DRAM resisted it tooth and nail.
If I was intergrated component and laptop maker like Toshiba or Sony, generic Chinese components would not something I would embrace.
http://www.thechannelinsider.com/article/Intel+Promotes+Interchangeable+Notebook+Components/174320_1...
Intel has identified seven component categories—hard disk drive, optical drive, LCD panel, battery pack, customizable notebook panel, power adapters and keyboards—that can be built on common building blocks, making them interchangeable and readily available for replacement or upgrade, the company announced the week of March 13 at its Intel Solutions Summit partner conference in Scottsdale, Ariz.
The chip maker is assisting three ODMs (Original Device Manufacturers), Asus, Compal and Quanta, in the fabrication of 11 devices based on the seven components. Intel is also encouraging OEMs and system builders to begin designing systems built for the common, interchangeable components. The components would be verified by Intel.
...
Dallman said he expects the initiative to take about three to five years to take hold.
90% of users don't need 64 bit OS and multiple core CPU's.
The problem when you start shipping $400 computers with $55 OS's and $90 CPU's by the millions it is hard to get them to buy $600 PC's with $150 OS and $190 CPUs unless you can instigate widespread PC component inflation.
The last 2 instances of it I can remember were in 1989 from Congress putting tariffs on Japanese DRAM chips(spot market price went from $2 per 256 KB to $8 per 256 KB chip) or from DRAM cartel colluding on artificial RDRAM prices in 1999-2000 which resulted in Justice Dept meted out a high penalty for their actions.
Wishing for higher ASP of PC's is like a child expecting $20 from tooth fairy based upon child hearing story about FED fighting inflationary expectations.
RE MSFT
This quarter's package of new MSFT software contained only:
- Vista Beta disks
- next version of Office release candidate disks
- SQL version 5.
The least amount of new software in a quarter I've seen from them in several years and not much more is expected unitl 1Q07.
You think that MSFT going to go higher based upon potential earnings in 1Q07.
Economy could go so soft by then that businesses could postpone any major desktop roll outs for many quarters.
You tell me how many companies still have to upgrade desktops now that they only cost $400. Every company that has to face shareholders is going to cut expenses to the bone as economy softens.
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NVDA off $1 from high IRF $1.5 from high.
SNDK & AMGN still holding some of their gains.
One has to be a nervous long in this market.
S&P should have taken 13 pt gain this morning and ran away higher if market was heading higher.
S&P is off 1 pt and it is hard not to see it turning to reach the bottom of channel soon.
PS they will keep it somewhat interesting by closing 1-2 pts higher today.
I have a guy who works the night shift in AIG data center who also works part time for me. He seems to be giving me that funny vibe that existing job is going bye bye and is looking for a fall back position.
PNRA & JOE starting to fall about
ISRG & WFMI next