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Yep, it was close. I'm thinking 200% short is extreme here and will try to convince myself to reduce to avoid giving any back.
Maybe I sell the news tomorrow AM on the employment report, but it will be a blind trade as I'm not in.
I had planned to take 1/4 to 1/3 off on a break of 1550 but the other traders pre-empted me. EOD selling is relentless on higher than avg volume. I think we continue down untill we see some capitulation.
The plan is to average out of the short. A rebreak of 1550 will get me to take some off.
A big gap down may end the selling for a bounce.
Yep, would have been whipsawed with an automatic stop.
Looks like they fluffed it up to run the short stops before taking it down. Had I been in QQQQ at a brokerage I would have lost 2/3 of my position.
OT buddy. Check this one out.
No changes. It was too close to call at EOD whether Ndx would close above 1605.
Impossible to quantify the effect of EOQ. The two day rally could be completely reversed by Fri.
I think backtest of broken uptrend. Maybe a flag up to 1604 and change, reversal to 1535-1542. Action Thur/Fri totally looked like EOQ buying by funds. The indicators I studied look like their resetting oversold before more down.
Booking some profits over the week both long and short helped mitigate some of the damage Thur./Fri.
Looking at various indicators I don't have a clear go long...it looks more like a reset of indicators before another leg down. Thinking this EOQ stuff stalls out next week and we head for 1535-1542.
A close above 1605 will get me to reduce shorts. 1611 again and 1620 out.
This looks bullish. Pennant/Sym. triangle.
That was August data...the latest. As far as PMI...businesses are slow to react on changes in demand which typically results in inventory corrections.
All said one month does not make a trend. We'll see whether the consumer is holding up or not soon enough.
Stocks Open Lower As Consumer Spending Dip Intensifies Concerns About Economic Impact of Storms
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050930/wall_street.html?.v=7
Consumer spending dip should send markets lower. Who cares if Chicago Pmi higher if end demand is falling off.
Could be first evidence of consumer slowdown.
Ratio of safe/riskier assets
Ndx/Indu
EMD:$USB
'O' has been reliable on wave structure.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=7940872
Yesterday's candle is a big concern, but looks like we should come back to test the red line somewhere around 1579-1580. Momentum may have turned up. MACD 7/13/7 looks reliable. Full Stochs tend to have a whipsaw before bottoming. If we get weakness today I think lighten up or hedge.
I think today was the EOQ window dressing I was looking for yesterday w/hedged position. The buying initiated a short squeeze that added fuel.
I'm still of the belief we get lower prices but delayed now as we need to rework the same area.
Stayed short.
The average Joe is unaware of what lies ahead.
Gap fill. Should head back down if Da Boys are ready.
Futures led the opening dump. Lot's of resistence now.
Static.
Live.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=NQ1%21&o=&a=V%3A60&z=610x300&d=mediu...
Yes...you were spot on. Ndx map you're next trick?...
Summer of complacency.
Not only are delinquencies at a record so are the balances. Lot's of bad news on the docket for 4thQ as K effects show up. Should tank the market. I don't see any way earnings can hold up with so many scratching out an existence.
Yep...getting boring. Traded my way up to a positive 9.77% Ytd. Probably just jinxed myself...
Credit-card delinquencies hit record
Pain at the pump is a major factor, according to the American Bankers Association.
September 28, 2005: 1:48 PM EDT
By Jeanne Sahadi, CNN/Money senior writer
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Hit by rising gasoline prices, a record percentage of credit-card accounts were delinquent in the second quarter, the American Bankers Association reported Wednesday.
The ABA found that the 4.81 percent of credit-card accounts had payments that were past due by 30 days or more between April and June. That's up from 4.76 percent in the first quarter, which was the previous record. The ABA started tracking delinquencies in 1973.
The ABA also noted an increase in delinquent payments on personal loans, auto loans, home equity loans and lines of credit.
A key reason for the increase: the strain of higher gas prices.
The group noted that the the average cost of filling up the gas tank of a mid-size car in June averaged $38.33, up from $30.63 at the end of last year. Today, the average is higher still, at $47.78.
"The last two quarters have not been pretty. Gas prices are taking huge chunks out of wallets, leaving some individuals with little left to meet their financial obligations," ABA chief economist James Chessen said in a statement.
What about the Katrina effect?
An obvious question, post-Katrina, is what will happen in the next few quarters to delinquency numbers, given that some evacuees, left jobless and homeless, may be relying on credit cards to get through the initial stages of rebuilding their lives.
If there is going to be a Katrina effect, Chessen said in an interview, it may not show up until the fourth quarter, which more fully encompasses the post-hurricane period.
Credit-card companies must report delinquencies to the Federal Reserve, but they have agreed not to report evacuees' delinquent payments to the credit bureaus for an indefinite period of time in order to preserve survivors' credit standing.
More...http://money.cnn.com/2005/09/28/pf/debt/delinquencies/index.htm
Tough decision but back to full 2X short. funds may be exausted or not...
Gotta agree with that. I'm consider moving some cash to ProFunds unless Rydex get's off their asses and offer something near the stable of leveraged and short funds at Pro.
The AM opportunities will cause me to keep a Rydex acct. tho.
Msft and Payx.
http://quotes.nasdaq.com/quote.dll?page=nasdaq100&col=6&dir=D
Hope they hold it up into the close. Action looks pretty negative though.
Executed at 1576.
AM decision time. Ndx trading at resistence, looks like it's waiting on oil report. Sold 33% of long hedge and added it to short side. A bit net short here.
I'll be in the rest of the week so I can watch my long hedge for an opportunity to flip it. That definately influenced my decision.
I don't have a choice. Rydex takes off the oldest position and that profit is reported to the IRS.
$TYX looks like bad news for stock bulls. Been along time since it has put in higher lows/highs. This could be it.
Goodbye equity line ATM's.
May be best. I got in late and had to make a too quick assesment. Basically flat for tomorrow but with opportunity.
Here's the position I'm taking off today.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=7636745
Other half from yesterday at 1582. Don't want to wish bad luck on you but a G&C tomorrow would be perfect so I can switch back to short.
Hedged 50% long Ndx to offset short. EOQ fear and a bit too much bearishness.