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Thanks professor.
Professor, I was reviewing 505(b)(2)" NDA filing requirements a coupe of weeks ago and dismissed it, as I thought they would have to use info from a drug like Intrinsa, but it is not FDA approved. Thanks for getting me to re-examine it upon a closer look, it appears male testosterone replacement which is approved can be the starting point.
It allows for a different formulation and a new indication of a previously approved drug. There is much documentation on HSDD and testosterone. Not as much for Testosterone and the CV benefits. Do you think it would cover the CV benefits as well, as a new indication?
Good series of pickups off the 10k. I would guess they are referring to the Pill Plus transdermal.
Jeff, I agree, it is mind boggling what information we as a group have collectively learned which has yet to be released. I am certain that when everything unfolds, it will make perfect sense to us.
Let's see what the next couple of weeks produce. Remember Biosante has inside information that we are not privy to, yet.
In addition, BSM had $21.244 billion in revenue last year. Assuming a 7.2% share dilution to acquire Biosante and an equal $4 billion towards developing and marketing BPAX's pipeline, you are looking at a 14.4 % investment. 14.4 % of last years revenue equals $3.06 billion. This is what BPAX's pipeline must produce in order for the deal to have neutral effect on BSM's bottom line.
Libigel alone should eventually generate over $3 billion/year. Therefore the rest of the pipeline would be pure profit.
This is why I believe Biosante to be worth more then $4 billion. However, if such an offer were presented, you would have to consider it.
Interesting Jeff, Gumshoe had it reaching a pps of $148 within 5 years. That equates to almost $90 with today's outstanding share total.
If Bristol Myers Squibb were smart they should make a $4 billion offer for the company now. That equates to approx. $33/share. BMY was trading Friday at $33.09. They could do this though the issuing of shares straight up one BMY for one BPAX.
This will dilute the existing shareholders portion of the company by 7.2% but in exchange the $4 billion dollars can now be used to complete the NDA run for Libigel, fund any additional CV related trials, advance the entire GVAX portfolio, and start the Pill Plus Phase 3 trials. This plan would create a win - win scenario for Biosante and BMS shareholders.
In return BMS gets the following:
- Global rights to Elestrin, excluding US and Isreal.
- Global right to Bio-t-gel excluding US
- Libigel which should give BMS a full ROI in 5-6 years or less depending on the number of treatments it is approved for.
- The entire cancer portfolio. Using Pharmalcyclics as a comparison could put a market value ($2.26) in the same ball park or higher.
- Pill Plus and Biolook, Biovant
- Equity in Ceregene which reduces the cost of Ceregene by 16% should they go after it for the Alzheimers and Parkinson treatment.
- Equity in Cold Genesys 19.9 %
- Probably most importantly for BMS is a replacement for many of the outgoing patents. This will attract other buyers as well.
Personally I believe Biosante to be worth more, but such an offer would be hard to turn down. The longer they wait, the risk is reduced and the more expensive the offer will have to be.
Note: I used BMS in this scenario but the same is true for any big pharma looking to acquire Biosante.
The Phase III Vital prostate cancer trial which were terminated prematurely did set back the GVAX program but allowed researchers to understand how to best use the GVAX vaccine. In the long run this may be a blessing. One of the take aways from the Vital trial was that the vaccines need time to react. Therefore GVAX works best on slower growing cancers or aggressive cancers that are detected early.
As better methods for early detection improve such as Nanotechnology For Detecting Diseases Earlier, the market for cancer vaccines such as GVAX will increase.
In the article Prevention and Early Detection of Cancer in the United States they suggest using vaccines as a method to prevent cancer. It makes sense that one day GVAX could be prescribed to people who have a family history of a given cancer, boosting their immune system to fight the cancer in its infancy. This would be in addition to the combination therapy presently being tested for those who are diagnosed with cancer.
When the above happens the target audience for GVAX vaccines will have grown significantly. This could end up being much bigger then any of us ever realized.
The work is a bit self serving. Some are going to jump off and take some profits on the way up. The MMs will play their games in order to accumulate shares. If people don't jump off then MM will let it ride. If shareholders truly understand the value of what they are sitting on, they will let it climb to a decent level before taking profits.
In answer to the R/S, if they don't find a partner who will give them a fair deal, I see them initiating a R/S followed by an offering to raise capital to make the run for an NDA. If they are going to manufacture Libigel they will need financing for a facility. As I understand it this has to be in place and inspected prior to NDA approval. If they are going this way I would like them to go all in and seek funding for a Marketing Team and to take GVAX to phase III trials. Under these conditions these share price would elevate rapidly requiring less shares to be issued to finance the activitites. This type of plan would give it the respect some of the other biotech are getting and would end up with a $3+ billion market cap and much more once approved.
Just a thought, but I could see Tang purchasing the new shares issued to get to 20% of the outstanding shares. This would get the ball rolling on the climb up. His earlier shares would be given a big lift by his purchase.
Simes is presenting June 6th @ 11:00 at the Jefferies 2012 Global Healthcare Conference, New York.
Agenda
In relation to going it alone with GVAX, I meant take the lead as the cancer treatments today have moved to a combination of drugs to treat the disease. Obviously this would require additional financing.
Please delete Post 15550 and 15551 they are unfinished duplicates. Thank You.
In order to assess what impact an NDA submission may have on BPAX share price I have collected the following information.
COMPANIES WITH PENDING NDA SUBMISSIONS.
Arena Pharmaceuticals - MC = $ 1.1 Billion
Revenue $ 12.72 M Net Income (-$109.22 M)
Lorcaserin (weight management) - Resubmitted NDA
Pulmonary arterial hypertension Phase 1
Arena pipeline
Amarin Corp. MC $1.59 billion
Revenue $0 Net Income (-$69.13 M)
No approved products
NDA : AMR101: Under Investigation for Hypertriglyceridemia and Mixed Dyslipidemia (multiple lipid disorders) and for Reducing Cardiovascular Risk
Amarin Corp pipeline
Vivus MC $ 2.45 B
Revenue $0 Net Income (-$47.03 M)
One approved drug for Erectile Disfunction STENDRA
Qnexa weight-loss therapy targeting obesity PDUFA date extension: July 17 2012
Qnexa® may be the first therapy to address Type 2 diabetes as well as weight loss Phase 2 Trial
Qnexa A phase 2 study (OB-204) evaluating the safety and efficacy for the treatment of obstructive sleep apnea
Vivus Pipeline
BUYOUT VALUE
Micro Met bout out by Amgem for $1.16 Billion
Revenue $ 21.92 M Net Income (– $74.16 M)
Blinatumomab, a BiTE antibody that has demonstrated encouraging single-agent activity in both adult and pediatric patients with ALL as well as adult patients with NHL, and is currently under investigation in five trials:
Two Phase 2 trials for adult patients with relapsed/refractory ALL
Phase 1/2 trial for pediatric patients with relapsed/refractory ALL
Phase 2 trial for adult ALL patients with minimal residual disease (MRD)
Phase 1 trial for adult patients with relapsed/refractory NHL
Ardea Bioscience To be acquired by AsraZeneca for $1.26 Billion
Revenue $ 7.3 M Net Income (– $86.58 M)
Gout Phase 2 trial
Gout Phase 1 trial
Liver Cancer Phase 2 trial
Liver Cancer Phase 1 trail
Ardea Pipeline
Inhibitex - Acquired by Bristol-Myers Squibb for $2.5 Billion
Revenue $1.6 M Net Income (–$ 22.67M)
Hepatitis C Phase 2 trial
Shingles Phase 2 trial
Aurexis®, a humanized monoclonal antibody Phase 2
Staph vaccine Phase 2
Inhibitex pipeline
Pharmasset acquired by Gilead for $11 Billion
Three promising mid- to late-stage hepatitis C drugs
It has seven candidates in its pipeline: four compounds in Phase 2 and three in Phase 1.at the time of the sale
HONORABLE MENTION
Human genome Science Inc. MC $2.71 Billion turned down a $2.6 B offer from GSK
Revenue $130.98 M Net Income (-$381.11 M)
BENLYSTA® became the first new approved drug for lupus in more than fifty years
Raxibacumab -new way to address the threat of inhalation anthrax. Phase 3 trial
Phase 3 clinical trials of darapladib in men and women with chronic coronary heart disease through GSK
Albiglutide in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus through GSK.
COMPANIES WITH NO APPROVED DRUG SOME GOING INTOPHASE 3 TRIALS
Pharmacyclics, Inc MC $2.26 Billion
Revenue 8.3 M Net Income (-35.20 M)
Has a cancer program with a number of phase 1 and 2 trials underway of which a Leukememia trial is about start a phase 3 trial.
Pharmacyclics
Interestingly, similar to pharmacyclics, if Biosante were to start any of their GVAX unpartnered into Phase 3 expect GVAX alone to push Biosante Market Cap up $2+ Billion.
Now if Biosante were fairly priced such as most of the above companies you can decide what you think is a fair share price upon NDA submission or buyout.
I notice that the market rewards those who go it alone. Maybe it is time for Biosante to take that step.
In order to assess what impact an NDA submission may have on BPAX share price I have collected the following information.
COMPANIES WITH PENDING NDA SUBMISSIONS.
Arena Pharmaceuticals - MC = $ 1.1 Billion
Revenue $ 12.72 M Net Income (-$109.22 M)
Lorcaserin (weight management) - Resubmitted NDA
Pulmonary arterial hypertension Phase 1
Arena pipeline
Amarin Corp. MC $1.59 billion
Revenue $0 Net Income (-$69.13 M)
No approved products
NDA : AMR101: Under Investigation for Hypertriglyceridemia and Mixed Dyslipidemia (multiple lipid disorders) and for Reducing Cardiovascular Risk
Amarin Corp pipeline
Vivus MC $ 2.45 B
Revenue $0 Net Income (-$47.03 M)
One approved drug for Erectile Disfunction STENDRA
Qnexa weight-loss therapy targeting obesity PDUFA date extension: July 17 2012
Qnexa® may be the first therapy to address Type 2 diabetes as well as weight loss Phase 2 Trial
Qnexa A phase 2 study (OB-204) evaluating the safety and efficacy for the treatment of obstructive sleep apnea
Vivus Pipeline
BUYOUT VALUE
Micro Met bout out by Amgem for $1.16 Billion
Revenue $ 21.92 M Net Income (– $74.16 M)
Blinatumomab, a BiTE antibody that has demonstrated encouraging single-agent activity in both adult and pediatric patients with ALL as well as adult patients with NHL, and is currently under investigation in five trials:
Two Phase 2 trials for adult patients with relapsed/refractory ALL
Phase 1/2 trial for pediatric patients with relapsed/refractory ALL
Phase 2 trial for adult ALL patients with minimal residual disease (MRD)
Phase 1 trial for adult patients with relapsed/refractory NHL
Ardea Bioscience To be acquired by AsraZeneca for $1.26 Billion
Revenue $ 7.3 M Net Income (– $86.58 M)
Gout Phase 2 trial
Gout Phase 1 trial
Liver Cancer Phase 2 trial
Liver Cancer Phase 1 trail
Ardea Pipeline
Inhibitex - Acquired by Bristol-Myers Squibb for $2.5 Billion
Revenue $1.6 M Net Income (–$ 22.67M)
Hepatitis C Phase 2 trial
Shingles Phase 2 trial
Aurexis®, a humanized monoclonal antibody Phase 2
Staph vaccine Phase 2
Inhibitex pipeline
Pharmasset acquired by Gilead for $11 Billion
Three promising mid- to late-stage hepatitis C drugs
It has seven candidates in its pipeline: four compounds in Phase 2 and three in Phase 1.at the time of the sale
Honorable mention
Human genome Science Inc. MC $2.71 Billion turned down a $2.6 B offer from GSK
Revenue $130.98 m Net Income (-$381.11 million)
BENLYSTA® became the first new approved drug for lupus in more than fifty years
Raxibacumab -new way to address the threat of inhalation anthrax. Phase 3 trial
Phase 3 clinical trials of darapladib in men and women with chronic coronary heart disease through GSK
Albiglutide in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus through GSK.
Companies with no approved drug going into phase three.
Pharmacyclics, Inc MC $2.26 Billion
Has a cancer program with a number of phase 1 and 2 trials underway of which a Leukememia trial is about start a phase 3 trial.
Revenue 8.3 Million Net Income (-35.20)
In order to assess what impact an NDA submission may have on BPAX share price I have collected the following information.
COMPANIES WITH PENDING NDA SUBMISSIONS.
Arena Pharmaceuticals - MC = $ 1.1 Billion
Revenue $ 12.72 M Net Income (-$109.22 M)
Lorcaserin (weight management) - Resubmitted NDA
Pulmonary arterial hypertension Phase 1
Arena pipeline
Amarin Corp. MC $1.59 billion
Revenue $0 Net Income (-$69.13 M)
No approved products
NDA : AMR101: Under Investigation for Hypertriglyceridemia and Mixed Dyslipidemia (multiple lipid disorders) and for Reducing Cardiovascular Risk
Amarin Corp pipeline
Vivus MC $ 2.45 B
Revenue $0 Net Income (-$47.03 M)
One approved drug for Erectile Disfunction STENDRA
Qnexa weight-loss therapy targeting obesity PDUFA date extension: July 17 2012
Qnexa® may be the first therapy to address Type 2 diabetes as well as weight loss Phase 2 Trial
Qnexa A phase 2 study (OB-204) evaluating the safety and efficacy for the treatment of obstructive sleep apnea
Vivus Pipeline
BUYOUT VALUE
Micro Met bout out by Amgem for $1.16 Billion
Revenue $ 21.92 M Net Income (– $74.16 M)
Blinatumomab, a BiTE antibody that has demonstrated encouraging single-agent activity in both adult and pediatric patients with ALL as well as adult patients with NHL, and is currently under investigation in five trials:
Two Phase 2 trials for adult patients with relapsed/refractory ALL
Phase 1/2 trial for pediatric patients with relapsed/refractory ALL
Phase 2 trial for adult ALL patients with minimal residual disease (MRD)
Phase 1 trial for adult patients with relapsed/refractory NHL
Ardea Bioscience To be acquired by AsraZeneca for $1.26 Billion
Revenue $ 7.3 M Net Income (– $86.58 M)
Gout Phase 2 trial
Gout Phase 1 trial
Liver Cancer Phase 2 trial
Liver Cancer Phase 1 trail
Ardea Pipeline
Inhibitex - Acquired by Bristol-Myers Squibb for $2.5 Billion
Revenue $1.6 M Net Income (–$ 22.67M)
Hepatitis C Phase 2 trial
Shingles Phase 2 trial
Aurexis®, a humanized monoclonal antibody Phase 2
Staph vaccine Phase 2
Inhibitex pipeline
Pharmasset acquired by Gilead for $11 Billion
Three promising mid- to late-stage hepatitis C drugs
It has seven candidates in its pipeline: four compounds in Phase 2 and three in Phase 1.at the time of the sale
Honorable mention
Human genome Science Inc. MC $2.71 Billion turned down a $2.6 B offer from GSK
Revenue $130.98 m Net Income (-$381.11 million)
BENLYSTA® became the first new approved drug for lupus in more than fifty years
Raxibacumab -new way to address the threat of inhalation anthrax. Phase 3 trial
Phase 3 clinical trials of darapladib in men and women with chronic coronary heart disease through GSK
Albiglutide in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus through GSK.
Companies with no approved drug going into phase three.
Pharmacyclics, Inc MC $2.26 Billion
Has a cancer program with a number of phase 1 and 2 trials underway of which a Leukememia trial is about start a phase 3 trial.
Revenue 8.3 Million Net Income (-35.20)
I guess even though Libigel would be a good test for the Benefit-Risk Assessment. It appears that The FDA will just be drafting that portion of the PDUFA REAUTHORIZATION PERFORMANCE next year.
Something to consider, the new position for Director of Quality Assurance is to report directly to the President and CEO
July 18, 2011 BioSante Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: BPAX), announced the appointment of Sandra Croak-Brossman, MS, Ph.D., as Vice President, Regulatory Affairs and Quality Assurance Dr. Croak-Brossman joins BioSante with over 24 years of experience in the pharmaceutical industry. She has held a variety of regulatory positions and has led operations at both a U.S. and global level. Dr. Croak-Brossman's work experience includes positions at Boehringer Ingelheim, Pfizer and Abbott Laboratories. Importantly, while at Pfizer, Dr. Croak-Brossman was the worldwide regulatory lead for Viagra®. Her experience as a regulatory lead in the sexual dysfunction therapeutic market makes her uniquely qualified to manage regulatory projects as BioSante progresses towards the NDA submission for LibiGel® (testosterone gel). Dr. Croak-Brossman earned her MS and Ph.D. in Quantitative Genetics and Animal Breeding from Purdue University and conducted her Post-Doctoral Fellowship at Cornell University.
On the fact sheet for the 14th Annual BIO CEO & Investor Conference, Dr. Croak-Brossma is listed as a vice president.
BIO Sheet
She may very well hold the VP of Quality Assurance until the Director is appointed.
Seeing Dr. Croak-Brossman's background and the elimination of her quality assurance duties,it leads me to believe that Biosante may very well be getting ready to have her concentrate fully on using her global regulatory expertise. If so this is going to be a fun stock to watch.
Tom, a number of variables will impact the PPS even with an FDA approval.
1 - What treatment (1 or more): HSDD, Testosterone Replacement, CV related treatment for Hypertension and Dyslipidemia (for which they may have enough data to include in an NDA submission).
2- Will the FDA allow a phase IIIb trial for diabetes to expand on the data collected for Diabetes Mellitus (which would allow them to submit an update near the end of NDA submission but prior to the PDUFA date)
3 - Will they partner or go it alone, if they go it alone, who they hire to assemble their marketing team will impact the price (ie, expected revenue from sales). If they partner who they partner with will impact price as well.
To answer your question upon approval, I figure as little as $10 or as much as $50/share. Obviously positive news with GVAX, Pill plus, Elestrin European Royalty Deal with Jazz Pharma, Teva Bio-t-gel launches could take us even higher.
Bottom line much more then the $2.50 it was trading at in December before the 80 % drop in price.
Thanks Jeff, good articles.
Some GVAX perspective, I have attached the meat of the deal between Cell Genesys and Takeda in 2008 for GVAX Prostate only. It was $320 million in up front and milestone payments up to approval plus double digit royalties.
GVAX Prostate Deal
Biosante has at least 8 cancer vaccines involved in 17 clinical trials.
What would they be worth today? Remember that was 2008.
Jeff, I obviously agree with your assessment?
If I was Big pharma I would make a fair offer sooner rather then later. The later you wait the greater chance someone else will come to the table, this in addition reduction of risk that Libigel won't get approved, will only elevate the price. It has to be a good offer. Management has an idea as to the value of Biosante.
Personally, I think Gilead would have been better off making an offer for Biosante over Pharmasset and could have saved a couple of billion dollars in the process. I think Biosante's diversity in big market products, would give a bigger and quicker ROI.
The new hepatitis treatment is the flavor of the day and they are paying a premium for something that is just starting phase III trials. While Biosante has the global right to two FDA approved drugs which target a fast growing market (the ageing population) in addition to everything you have mentioned.
I agree, but I was being conservative and even a conservative estimate is very tantalizing. I like you believe it will go much higher, my only concern is the manipulation, slowing the pace of growth as much as it can while continuing to accumulate.
But you are right, long term it will be much higher then $10.
If someone is trying to buy this company, the price will be high, but they will try to accumulate as many shares to reduce their net cost for the company. In such a scenario those who hold on will be handsomely rewarded.
I am surprised that the MMs haven't slowly let it climb earlier allowing them accumulate on the way up as people who are trying to break even say that's close enough and sell. Then let it climb again up until the news overpowers their ability to control the price.
I will be around for a while, GVAX is very interesting. Could become the duct tape of cancer treatment (101 uses).
Josh, I averaged down from $2.13 to $0.72. If I didn't have a wife and an advisor acting as my conscience I probably would have averaged down further. But it always good to diversify your portfolio
Obviously you are uncomfortable with the games being played. Once news comes out it will start climbing. When it gets to $1 it will continue to climb past $1.39. You don't need to add any more shares, but the lower your average PPS the more you can make.
Putting perspective on whether you should sell at even.
Assuming Libigel is headed for NDA PDUFA date in 2013 the climb will go towards $4 to $6 dollars. Even higher if GVAX gets partnered
The company is hiring, most likely to bring Libigel to market, for what treatment(s) they have yet to announce. A company trying to preserve cash would not do this unless they had a good reason. Maybe we will find out within the next week or two. Jeffries is a huge conference. If they want to gain attention there aren't many better places to be.
Put it this way, if it was worth $2.50 when you bought about 9 months ago and there were many more hurdles to NDA approval. What will it be worth now that GVAX has risen from the ashes and all the hurdles to an NDA submission have been cleared. What if they are able to apply for a much bigger market then the HSDD which was the initial intention of Libigel?
I believe when it comes to Biosante the trader will make money, while the investor will be able to retire early. It's toys vs lifestyle.
If you need the money right away then it simplifies your choice.
Like life there are no guarantees, when investing only play with what you can afford to lose.
Josh, I am pretty certain you will be happily holding the bag right up to a PDUFA date in 2013.
Thanks for the chuckle. LOL
I agree there are a lot of uncertainties but if the PR eliminates many of the uncertainties, such as:
- Announcing a GVAX partner to take it forward (BMS)
- FDA meetings resulted in proceeding to a NDA submission on one or more applications for Libigel . Remember the CV benefits of Libigel and their patent application have yet to be publicized.
The MMs at this point would no doubt unleash the stock. Combined with the number of shorts trying to cover, all together could add up to a rapid climb.
I agree on being surprised that people aren't covering. BPAX traded in the $2.50 range prior to the December drop. Biosante presents at the Jeffries conference the next week in new York. If positive news or a series of positive PR is coming regarding Libigel and/or GVAX, post ASM, the price will pop much higher then $2.50. Not to mention that the window to cover prior to the meeting is now down to 4 trading days.
Jeff, you may have already seen this, but it seems to confirm your earlier assertion that Dendreon was given a much easier road to FDA approval then GVAX. Interestingly, the 20 additional deaths attributed to the GVAX arm was enough to terminate the trials. If corrected to 9 additional deaths in the GVAX arm earlier the study no doubt would have continued. They would have then learned that the GVAX arm would have a had a greater Overall Survival no doubt by strengthening the immune system.
Cellular Vaccine Approaches
Jeff. Professor
Excerpt from the 2011 Annual Report
Sales and Marketing
We currently have no sales and marketing personnel to sell any of our products on a commercial basis. Under our license agreements, our licensees have agreed to market the products covered by the agreements in certain countries. For example, under our license agreement with Jazz Pharmaceuticals, Jazz Pharmaceuticals has agreed to use commercially reasonable efforts to manufacture, market, sell and distribute Elestrin for commercial sale and distribution throughout the United States, and under our agreement with Teva, Teva has agreed to use commercially reasonable efforts to market our male testosterone gel in the United States. If and when we are ready to launch commercially a product not covered by our license agreements, we will either contract with or hire qualified sales and marketing personnel or seek a joint marketing partner or licensee to assist us with this function.
Form 10 K
I agree, I would not want to risk being short post ASM. Especially if there is a lack of liquidity. A few will take profits along the way letting some shorts cover, but many will ride it to it's potential, especially with the crazy buyouts that have been happening this year or a run-up to an NDA, if announced.
Let's not forget Ceregene's cousin Cold Genesys which is about to start a Phase II/III trial, an Efficacy Study of Recombinant Adenovirus for Non Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer (BOND)
Trial
Biosante owns 19.9% of this company as well.
Good post, seeing that Ardea bioscience is being acquired by AstraZeneca for $1.26 billion and Inhibitex went to BMS for $2.5 billion. CERE could very well go for more then $3 billion. Parkinsons and Alzhiemer's are major neurodegenerative disorders.
That is why I posted it, maybe I should have elaborated on Jaffee's connection to JHU for the others. Thanks for clarifying that.
Still would like to know what is in the report. Seriously thinking of taking a course at university simply to get access to all the paid subscription sites (maybe when I retire).
Hopefully this article will create additional buzz for GVAX
Whole Cell Vaccines—Past Progress and Future Strategies
Authored by Bridget P. Keenan, Elizabeth M. Jaffee
Only wish I had access to its contents.
Thanks Jeff.
Jeff, you are very knowledgeable with GVAX.
Do you know if they have done any research around graft vs host? My niece lost her battle with AML about 18 months ago. The first bone marrow transplant gave us two years with her, for that I am thankful. The second did not go as well. In a graft vs host scenario, you have very little immunity, much like a baby. Do you know if GVAX could be added to the graft bone marrow prior to the transplant, this could create a much more robust transplant to fight the host which is carrying the disease.
Your insight is much appreciated.
I am guessing a perfect storm, Post Index re-balancing, MM's are done accumulating and Shorts only have 7 days remaining to cover by the ASM (post ASM news could be lethal to shorts). Then again nothing since December has made any sense.
Unless the shorts are covering. If shorts expect it to climb dramatically post ASM, there are only 7 shopping days left to cover.