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I believe it's 547.5 as 537.5 is 8-9 bucks
not 3
That's what I see
(a 10 differential limited to 7 which fits the parameters as well)
---------
I didn't realize 500 Google at money can be that "cheapo". For some reason I believed it should be higher. Good "news" for me.
Thanks for posting - now I looked it up and know.
I'll be a future customer ASAP, way better IMO than lower price stocks. I hope they don't split the pig.
I placed my buy orders but missed
(I am talking about morning lows)
Now I lowered it..
whatever
I can wait .
I don't have to trade each day.
(also I can lower the buying further, or cancel until further notice - my money -> my terms)
oh no, it wasn't guesstimate, it was certainty
I won't waste my writing and didn't when I see you guesstimate, check it out in fairness.
What I understand now, from your needless outburst, is to not EVER bother to relate to your posts as they would all be guesstimates completely detached of technical analysis and charting.
I was pointing out objective points, NOT opinion , nor guess, pure TA. I don't understand your problem with it. Sorry to bother.
I don't have a problem with guessing and guesstimating, we all do, but we don't mix the two, guessing and TA. Guessing is based on TA, and experience add to what we call "gut-feeling".
Not to mention, this is not a pure guesstimating board, but a TA board, and it comes naturally to expect someone to use charting TA in opinions he/she expressed unless otherwise stated!!
But here's your post, and feel free to point me to where you said anything about guesstimating (Like I said , you want me to regard all your posting guesstimate and expect nothing more like TA) :
Here's your post:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=108321561
optionslearner Wednesday, 11/19/14 12:06:27 PM
Re: TR4GEDY post# 125682
Post # of 125697
TO ME ITS OPPORTUNITY!
I like seeing the Big Drops on Stocks/Indexes/Sectors that I believe are in a Long Term UPWARD TREND!...That is How I see GOLD so this gives Opportunity to add Quality Miners!....IF I was ready for Options as I will be implementing in the FUTURE; RIGHT NOW I would price and purchase GLD 119 Dec/19th CALLS
calling GLD LT-uptrend when is squarely LT-downtrend ??
I wonder why
And you are ready to buy
I wonder why again
Let me see:
GLD is bellow both daily 50 and 200 (isn't this LT ?)
50 crossed death-ly 200 !
Both 200 and 50 are going down!
GLD is bellow both, yearly resistance as well few MONTHS resistance.
GLD just bounced slightly so off the 52 week lows (so basically is near 52 week lows!) !!!
What do I miss in this so bullish picture ??
Maybe I missed the fundamentals that matter like the US goonvernment /fed doing all in their power to suppress the gold so the USD won't be wiped out along with the US of A ? They have (for now) the power to continue to suppress the gold, and will continue to do so, just like they pump the market.
So fighting the fed is bullish fundamentals ?
I can't see what I missed
(oil is in a better shape than gold, but is plagued by similar fundamentals - I do like to trade both, but gold is a meh now)
-- usually where gold is moving the cousins follow, and they tend to rush it even more (stuff like silver and miners, but miners to a point)
look at that trading room picture, my my
Guys trading, and so equipped, what an envy.
I've seen many like it. I always wondered if that's our ideal.
IMO is a lot of BS in this pic. There is no freaking way one can read the numbers on the top layer of monitors, so is a BS/dumb setup. Pictures like TV channels or some magnified charting can be glanced upon, but that's about it, it's just for the show.
Evidence is that the guy on the left has them turned off. But I don't need the "evidence" as I am struggling myself with reading numbers over medium distances that's how I know this stuff.
So the guy on the right is either a fool or is posing for us.
Also there is no way you don't need a small calc and papers as a trader. Again, the guy from the right has the desk voided of such things, while the guy at the left has papers, and if you look carefully he also is "into it".
All that said, I think that a row of 4 large screens console is more than enough, and a TV or 2 at the top row, say a news and a Business channel (or cartoons if you are into it LOL).
I would add a 3rd screen, a surveillance screen for some areas (outside etc) to give me a feel I'm "connected" and not be surprised by "the mailman".
I have 1 TV and 1 monitor as of now. (TV out of the way to minimize distraction, so I only glance now and then, or pay attention if something important for me shows, which is quite rare, and lots of days the TV stays closed)
A lot of pics (especially official pics) have a lot of fake and nonsense stuff in them, you just have to identify it.
(It is worth mentioning that the setup such as the one in the pic has to have a minimum 2 computers - also a necessity if you are serious enough and care for a backup)
--------------------------------------------------
- On other news -
Buy (cover shorts) support intraday (soon to show up).
Yesterday BS-day was sold off in premarket, as well as in about 15 min inmarket. But make no mistake, they ramped it up yesterday for 2 reasons - 1) in a "selloff" the real gains shall not be given back !!!, while 2) Today they put a show of "selloff" to scare the panties off Yellen, to squeeze more QE (just a speculation as I believe the QE never tappered, and never will, just more lies).
MISSION of this marketeers (Market MAKERS) - defend 202 at all costs !!!
So any and all selloffs are MEANINGLESS if 202 remains !!!
If 202 is lost, then , well, short at will (but at resistance points only !)
Delusions aside, there's fair chance for pullback tomorrow
(to be clear, not talking about me having delusions)
The question remains of how much and .....from where !!!
If the pig gaps up and then fades it will be a pain for shorters
but it will also be a low risk fading game.
If it gaps down, it 1st depends just how much down, must be juicy or no deal. Then it will be a good buying opportunity for those knowing what to do, and a good shorting for intraday for those fast traders (didn't see any yet here) willing to be on top of volatility.
There is a 3rd scenario where it opens unchanged, in which case tough luck guestimating the top in case it runs up, but fair opportunity on the pullback.
To set foolish thoughts straight
- Money from sidelines can only be attracted by pullbacks, so since we don't have a pullback that money remains there, period.
- Continuous rallying without pullback attracts nothing and nobody. It does something however, and that is increasing the heat on FMs , especially for this period. I think last year they tried something similar. This year is stronger.
If FMs will participate too strong then we have indeed a recipe for a major pullback from exhaustion point. Hard to tell without data.
simply defending 202 at all cost, nothing else
They are playing the TA
So what's going on?
The sale IMO will come in dec
(multi-million dollar) bonuses needed on WS
All hail the fuhrer
USA next Iceland - Absolutely correct
But there is a major advantage for US to prevent the same type of financial catastrophe just yet. US CAN print money which are so far accepted by the fools of the world.
Iceland could NOT print fiat money and pass them as money, so they exhausted their financial reserves.
There will be a financial US collapse, absolutely. It will be like no other we've seen due to USD status.
But for it to happen, a special catalyst must kick in, something like a "perfect financial storm" scenario.
No one (we know of) can foresee this catalyst yet, I guess until will be upon us.
The crashes, or "major corrections" we had are convulsions of the system, preceding the crisis.
This ultimate crash, a systemic crash, I would call it "FUNDAMENTAL crash", and will wipe out entire market gains in one of 2 ways or both: 1) The indexes will correct dramatically (up to 90%) magnified by sheer TRUE panic and despair (this sinister scenario is actually the preferred option), 2) The Indexes will remain more or less at same levels happening to be at the time, BUT ! but the inflation will outpace the market gains (up to 90%), offsetting the market gains and rendering the market gains non-existent (if I'm not mistaken, an example of 2nd scenario could be found in Turkey's stock market, with prolonged and huge market gains, but meaningless in face of inflation - search it out).
Catalyst is not here yet, or it is here but we don't see it.
at least 2 main-things say Oil is ALIVE
and uptrend (sideways at worst)
That will make you wrong. So stop listening to misdirection from pros (unless you are one of them) that try to scare us off A GREAT TRADE OPPORTUNITY to make A LOT OF MONEY !
The 2 things are (but not only them) :
- fundamentals (like humanity is not off addiction of oil, and supplies, while we have new sources, the long trend of supply is down which is divergent of price movement)
- Charts - they clearly show (to me and to pros) that long trend is uptrend, intact.
Consider this a beautiful opportunity similar to the one like we had in 2008-2009 in equities in the stock market.
Now if you are a pro wandering these boards trying to scare people off a great trade opportunity, shame on you pal, is not working with me and I'll make sure I get the word out.
If you are not a pro, but just a regular guy, stating his own opinion, then it's all good, but do yourself a favor and keep studying charts and/or fundamentals, because you are missing and missing big this "2008-2009" style 2014 oil bottom.
Oil has my full attention -> squarely AS A BUYER !!!
I am an oil bull getting ready to position at beautiful and so comfortable upcoming Oil BOTTOM-lows.
ST Oil bottom is nearer than ever
Start buying
get FREE Gas(transportation-costs) and utilities for entire 2015
Buy oil (or better yet a good-solid beaten-down oil company) these days, and hold it for half year.
Sell, and the profits should cover all your gas and utilities costs even after tax haircut.
Now just for your enlightenment make it at least a paper-trade, and see the could've-should've-would've down the road in half year.
Now is mid November, and the oil is at 74 (and probably going even lower).
So, here's your chance !
What, I say WHAT are you gonna do about it ?
(I will buy for hold AND trade. Not to mention I also already have been holding an oil position in red, but small size relatively speaking - here comes the buying order/s)
rubbing hands looking at oil 74 and the price action
(it would also put a halt/top into the market overall as if oil bottoms will suck liquidity away from bloated she-pig market into corrected oil, which is a juicier, not to mention safer trade-horse under the circumstances)
Buy when cheap and on sale !!!!!!!!!
you do NOT believe in 3:30 ramp-up job
Had you believed in it, you would've bought the market before it at 3:30, each and every day, sell at close, pocket the dollars, and rub your hands in satisfaction.
(and post in satisfaction of such fortunate sure-thing)
I know they defend 202, but I won't buy 3:30, no sir !
And that's because I do NOT see it a sure thing that "never fails".
If and when I see a sure thing, even if just for a while, I would trade it and happily so and laugh and be happy.
good you are agreeing with me pumpers
If somehow you intended to disagree try differently.
You should understand that NOT all ignorants and newbies make money. On the contrary, while this market is a market that is for them, most of them actually lose, yeah lose, some even go broke. It's the rule of the beast.
It would be nice if all ignorants and newbies would make money. But it will also put a halt to this market as it just won't be able to carry us ALL, it never did - when all in, it reverses like clockwork.
But most than usual, ignorants and newbies are making money for sure.
You can't say it looks to you "ridiculous" when you ignore DAILY media talk about money creation and market support with fiat money, AND (!!!) the Fed itself official statements no less.... what is QE (among other things)
Why you ignore all that pouring data is beyond logic.
In the bottom-line conclusion, on the market and trade we seem to be 100% in sync.
So you seem to want hard to disagree, but I did not offer something you can disagree with, other than that I am displeased with the officials abusing their power and lying in their promises, in summary, being immoral and rotten to the core (BOTH sides pal !).
Unlike the ignorants and newbies I do NOT need Fed to pump the market for me to make money trading. (don't use the word investing with me, I do NOT invest, I only trade)
They're doing their jobs, just defending the 202
Last hour, or whatever it takes, no shame too high for them to care - see the strongest ramp-job they just pulled in years !!
If you still feel like deer in headlights, just read my prior post in this regard.
Just because they defend 202, or trying to, it doesn't necessarily means it will succeed or be done strong enough to succeed.
Be cool, stay calm, wait, wait your turn, then punch the beasts and take your pound of dollars.
No real support till 201.80 area ->NOT Support!!
In fact there is not support whatsoever in sight, and that's a fantastic thing considering the maniacal run-up
So if she breaks it could be a no-breaks deluge.
Aside of NO support (just take my word for it, I don't want to write long explanations for the too lay-back to study), here're just some of NOT secret TA bearish signals:
- Weekly volume pattern is bearish.
- weekly stochastic is overbought (so far this has always been resulted in weakness or outright significant (trade-able juicy) correction. (Of course. also daily stochastic is overbought but that is going on for a while now)
- some other indicators are also pointing to weakness/ST-top (like money flow, negative divergences, MACD to name a few)
SPY needs to not lose 202 for another about 10 days to save itself. The time is ticking and with all that weakness shown it might just lose it, and then December weakness should add to make the corrective plunge needed for Santa rally and my entry.
201.80 not only is not support, not yet anyway, but it's a line of danger to be lost, thus you don't want to buy at that level unless you have money to burn.
here's the--> secret sell signal that hasn't failed all year long :
A very, VERY simple so called secret !!!
the man bought calls
even individuals can control a stock trend !!!
Then the SEC would investigate and find those PUMP-and-DUMPers, and sometimes punish them.
Individuals or groups can only control a stock or 2, NOT the market as it is too large, although it didn't stop some large traders from trying.
Stories are many if you want to do your DD.
So the background IS ESTABLISHED ! So your statement that the market pumping is not pumped is not being done is FALSE.
On the scale of the market it is happening but not exactly so like in pump and dump, not yet dumping anyway. The pump comes from influx of liquidity and it is WIDELY RECOGNIZED that vast majority of market gains are due to this Fed (government) money pumping.
The article posted earlier today by Jeff quantifies it at 70%.
Those are people way more knowledgeable than us. Just look it up their credentials, and/or check their findings.
You can't come and say otherwise with no supporting evidence, opinions don't mater.
In effect we are witnessing a NON-free market, a market that is controlled by the government, just like socialists and communists would do. From their experience we know is bad and that this will end in disaster.
You agree with me (or if it pleases you, I agree with you) that 1) Almost all investors are not market-timers. 2) Most people don't look at any indicators when they invest. 3) it is a bull market and we should only buy long positions. (reasons, however wrong and immoral, are still bullish reasons. Why wrong/immoral? Because if you try doing what the fed is doing they say is wrong and you go to jail)
I disagree with you that "indicators have no effect on the market". The statement is ludicrous. Is like saying the thermometer has no effect on temperature. It is baffling why you are telling (me) this.
The thermometer only measures. Likewise the indicators measure the market and let us know where to trade.
The indicators DO work and has been working with no fail.
As I explained earlier in a post, if an indicator (tool) is "not working" better check it with yourself, you are the wrong one choosing the wrong tool. You can't eat steak with a ladle.
The rising of the market is BADLY affecting the economy and my customers, they become worse off and spend less with each QE passing month. THAT IS WHY I hate QE and government-controlled market. Sorry, I like markets to be FREE.
From trader perspective it is easy-peasy trading. It is a market (like you point out) all people, most ignorant, just put money in and let it in or flip.
We are in a market that works for the ignorant and newbies if you will - all works as long as you buy long.
Never say Never
I urge you to reconsider. Honestly, only good intentions.
I sense you never traded options and not sure even if you have the account set for trading options.
Most definitely you didn't take the time to study them, or not well enough, otherwise you won't have that (so negative) opinion.
The good:
Options give you good leverage, and at the same time you take little risk, and, there's more, you know upfront your max loss, so no margin call ever.
You can sleep at night.
And if you play it right, you can laugh in the morning, sometimes each and every morning.
The bad:
The devil's side is that you have to be a darn good timer on both entry and exit. Mistakes here are not tolerated and punishments are emotionless inflicted.
The ugly:
The market has a hand in your pocket even when you are right. They call it "erosion"...
Point is the good part far outweighs the bad part!
I have lost money in options many times, and many times were total write-offs. But there were also the good times. The good times are good REALLY GOOD !
I advise you to reconsider your view of looking down on options, and at the very minimum watch them (options) and see for yourself - make some imaginary or paper trades.
Not to mention, just like Jef pointed out, you can use options to mitigate losses if the market crashes on you. Stops are pathetic compared to protection with options.
(I do NOT use stops, oops, did I say that? But I do use mental stops.)
Dee, actually volume is in itself an indicator
To that extent, like any indicator it can also "fail"!
Why indicators fail?
I have my own explanation : Indicators NEVER fail !
Here, I hope I rattle a chain LOL with such an answer ;)
The 'Fail' resides with the trader NOT with the indicator/s. It was the trader who unwisely chose the wrong tool for the job and/or conditions at hand.
I'll give you one example so you (and others) understand the concept.
Let's say you want to measure the Max temperature of something, say some water in a container. You get a thermometer (your indicator) and measure. If you got the right instrument (thermometer) it will show you a clear picture, but if you use a wrong instrument, say a small thermometer or even the back of your hand, it may show a wrong (Failed) read.
(another good example would be choosing the right car/wheels for specific trip/conditions - you can't blame the car, but you can surely blame the guy choosing it if it's inadequate)
Choosing the correct instrument (indicator) for the present market conditions will result in correct function and consistent results.
As a live-by-example, I posted earlier in a post what instrument to use for trading at this specific time - it was cherry-picked instrument, just as I explained. It has not fail, and will not fail, until conditions change. Then we can pick up another instrument or add another.
Your Volume can mean even opposite things. i.e. In a selloff can mean exhaustive move, meaning last weak hands are squeezed out and rally will ensue, but also can mean everyone is dumping and Enron is going down..
In our central-government-controlled market we witnessed even selloffs with high volume , then followed by a constant rally back up and beyond on pathetic volume, making many traders to ditch old wisdom and say 'volume is not important anymore, price is'.
Glad to share
Jef, so you'd take -5% Loss from example
Am I right?
190 puts, as your number vs the 200 ETF price start point.
So is 'fully hedged', but not exactly fully, being with a -5% Loss "deductible"
That's your 'Far-out'? 190 , a -5% ?
Am I right? (I said 'i.e. 200', then you said 190)
I'm quite clear about this given the numbers at hand, unless is something more undisclosed, or forgotten.
I was not talking about gold, just to clarify how one can fully hedge ONE stock by itself (no gold as counterpart, just puts) with Far-out OTM puts, hoping there's something I can learn.
Please clarify, thanks.
Have a good weekend,
and be back Monday for more of our "Sideways to nowhere" market.
Not necessarily. Sideways-churn will kill premium same
Meaning SLIGHTLY-SO red is also BAD for put holders
...If you don't believe me,... just buy some puts...
I sense a lot of money are waiting on the sidelines for a correction of this V-rally
Example Oddlot that just posted that is out and in cash waiting for a "so so event" (case in point)
Jef, how exactly the far-out OTM hedges you?
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think you made a "Mathematics is the only exact science" mistake there.
Let's take an example. SPY being at 200 (like few days back), one buys 1000 ETF shares, then how you will it work out a hedge on this with 'Far-out OTM' puts?
Maybe is what constitutes the "Far-out" that creates the mistake. So is that Far-out not exactly 'Far' ?
Please clarify (on this example)
I think the market is sitting on a truckload of puts, maybe most are for protection, but regardless they are options too. So this mountain of options need to be expired worthless. This need makes the MMakers support the market and levitate it at what some say is called the least pain zone.
In-so, the next move will be after OEX, and until then expect little gyration/s, at least for the major indices and ETFs, so look forward for 2 more weeks of grinding and churning, not a rally-November as was supposed to be.
It (November rallying) can happen after OEX last days of the month, and will also look window-dressing to some, but is the darn option mountain no one (of MMakers) want to payout to, the real reason.
From the trading perspective, we can buy any and all small dips until OEX, and sell them at the top of the range - use Stochastics for entry and exits and you'll do fine.
optionlearner, change one part of your forecast
it will greatly help you be ok - just like pros are doing btw
change DEADLINE (i.e you say "by end of year") with a technical timer like "before turns bearish/weakens".
Do that and your chance to be correct will increase many folds.
In our example spy can go there on Jan 1st 2015 and while you COULD've been correct you are not because such little variable.
Not only it will make you look right, that's actually a little thing, unimportant really, but the big thing is it will put your mindset in the right gear for being a trader.
Take it or leave it, entirely up to you
Remember, a trader doesn't care of showing off, is not after such irrelevant thing
(exception is when a trader has a business/site and wants to attract followers, but even then is not for showoff per se but advertising)
I'm not opposing your forecast/s, or anyone's for that matter, and I think chances are good for yours to happen, just wanted to help you (plus helping me, by hopefully seeing the right approach repeated instead of a non-trading one).
p.s. did you go to the options board I mentioned in one of my last posts yet? They really have good advices and pointers in the intro, and you were interested in learning, no? I think even anyone can use some stuff found in that intro there.
As for traders there they are more into high speculative trades (meaning high risk but high payout if go well) , and might not be for just everybody level or trader-personality.
(I used to do some of that stuff myself many years ago. I had enough of joyrides and decided to calm down few notches, be a bit more conservative.. But I totally get them)
Nice to find you here Jim
I may be posting now and then if that's ok. Becoming one of the Option-Millionaires club ;)
I wrote 2 more msgs for you over there at SPY.
One got "lost" (someone might be a very angry soul)
But one is recent, so read it while is there and if you have the time of course. (Post # of 125116 )
Good trading to you and to all here
Jim'has a very nice board here on i-hub
He is also the moderator, no BS, no abusing posters, all seem to get along fine, very nice job, very well handled board, all civil and happy.
Meanwhile I have valid posts abused here by someone very angry and unreasonable.
Guys, here's the I-Hub board, and I'd especially advise you optionlearner to have a look especially at the intro. You'll find there some good trading advise, guidance and tips for options. I even laughed reading some lines.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/Option-Millionaires-12013/
Thanks Jim, nice board. I may start to come and visit sometimes.
I looked into the intro trades and I think I have all the info I wanted, so I guess there is no need anymore for Jason's posts, I think I'm good.
I'd have few words to say about some of those examples of posted trades and few questions (i.e. some seem to me highly speculative), but I think is best to look forward.
I really like the intro and the advises, it surely helps many traders. The only thing I differ is telling wife about trades. That is a no-no in general (my opinion based on studies and verified by myself). But even that has lots of silver linings in some funny angles, so it's a pass even from me.
Case in point, I perform outstandingly better for my wife account than on my own, no kidding. This to the point that I started at some point to reverse-engineer my thought process for trades in that account to find what's going on. I told her I did X times profit and she still gives me a bad look, so yeah, I understand where that opinion is coming from.
I have to re-evaluate some of my earlier timing observations on your regard if you are in fact an active poster, as that changes the variables, at least for over there. However, the pattern would remain here, where historically market weakness followed your posting?
Could it be a persistent coincidence?
p.s. Jim, be what it is, no connection, I was just looking around on i-Hub for (other) boards, particularly on options, and more active boards if possible and stumbled on yours. Little peculiar how it happened. Must be a sign from the markets ;)
Jim, PPT exists, absolutely, that's not the question
Now PPT is an acronym, and can be translated in few ways. Whatever the true name or true acronym would be, the basics remain. There is a pool of money buying (protecting/pumping etc) the market when no one else would, most importantly at key points like just as the market is about to break down, or even after.
Now that's the theory some would say (like you), and point out to officials as they never came out to admit it. Fact is even they did. Money window open? What's that? C'mon now. Just imagine you trade, throw money at the market, and if trades go bad and you have exhausted your buying power (bankrupt), you just go and get money from the fed window at low (make that zero) interest in perpetuity.
Of course, it stands the reason the officials would ask something in return, and is not going to be money that's for sure. Now you can just connect the dots if you will.
This is grossly unfair, it's an outright crime. The reason is because the rules of equal treatment are violated. We, the rest of the traders do NOT get financial help whatsoever whenever out trades go wrong.
I went one step further. I said, if money is indeed given to those preferred (manipulative) traders , then it is created. Money must leave a trail, it always does. Most looked to gold for inflationary trail. That is correct and natural thought, but the goonver. has an opposite interest to that, so through paper (electronic trading basically) manipulations they depressed the gold from rising. The operation was successful as we can see from gold going sideways or even down somewhat. Now the same goes for things like oil (national need), and we see that effect (paper price depressing) as well.
But like I said, I went one step further. You can do one or two things, yeah, sure, but not all, no one can, not even the goonver. as mighty as they are "with our money". So the money has to show its trail in some other place just as important as the gold, a place the goonver. lost control totally. Well, it is our day to day life and/or stuff like real estate. Forget the official rubbish, the real price of living went trough the roof. And in some parts the real estate went through the roof as well. Some will argue and point to low interest for real estate dramatic rise. I will not argue, it must be true, but not all that huge rise is justified by the low interest. An enormous part is just money created that found its way (our money trail) into the system one way or another.
Bottom line is money was and is still being created to serve some goon trading.
For our own daily trading routine, aside for this being a crime inflicted on us, this is not much of a trading problem. In fact it makes things easier to trade, it's all bullish and uptrend and there is no end of it in sight. (I see the end but will be farther away and will prolong the post)
From a trader perspective I have no reason to complain as this one-way market is easy to trade. The complains of traders arise from frustration about the goonver. breaking the law and helping one side.
To that end I prefer to trade long, and the only fear I have is that they will lose control of money creation, financial abuses will rise dramatically yet, and consequentially a very powerful civil chaos will ensue ending the US way of life we enjoyed so far.
Any abuse has it's payback to the piper.
So yeah, we have no officials admitting that they did that and the other like PPT, and there are lots of things they won't admit to mind you, that's politicians for you, but looking around I see the money sloshing all over, I believe what I see not what I hear.
My wife is working in a large store, and I was able to roadmap the customer and sales future status well in advance of happening. Why? Because I used the evidence like the the one I just described. The consumers are stretched to the limit and they can snap at any time. No further money printing is safe. Based on this I find it we may be toppy in the markets for some time. It's an economic biosphere - consumer-Earnings-equity valuations.
You can also look back, way back and in some markets you can make the technical case for a top.
So far everyone and his uncle is bullish and complacent that this time is different and we just keep going up.
That remains to be seen (...again).
For the time being I trade the fed/bull side. (emphasis on trade)
PPT or no PPT
(a question can be short, even one word, but true explanations take length)
"Who says this is a pump? PPT? Unreal? Why?
So many folks in the media, talking heads, pundits claiming this market is a bubble... BY who? What measure? "
funny - quite possible he's short
180 or lower, who knows
keep it up, that sarcasm is priceless :)
we can surely use some smiles, making fun of some otherwise sad things
After 2 days -3% drop each (oh hoho)
with high volume
Oil traders piled on the bid
Dejavue of a month
If that high volume was squarely sellers it shall continue down some more.
If big money is on the bid, then Huston, we have a bottom.
Apparently PPT only inflates what the "country" needs at the time. (well, of course, if GS needs oil 140 that will be regarded as "need" as proven in the past, but apparently not right now)
I'm curious when (how low) will be that the Russians and the Arabs will start concocting their own oil games. All they have to do is ask (hire) some super-smart eCONomists.
After all, they must've really REALLY liked the high prices GS manipulated up not so far back.
GS in its irrational greed erred in showing them the way (!), that it (high oil) is possible. Now Pandora's box is open and the high price of oil and greed genies are out.
Thanx GS, you are geniuses... NOT.
This, and the inflation created by USD are the fundamental side. It remains to be seen in the TA side. And then, when it all bottom, you can say adieu and kiss goodbye to non-inflationary market rise for good.
I really really want to buy in at that bottom in oil.
It will be like buying the market at 2009 lows.
1. you* use "lofty valuations", "high P/E ratios"
and "bubble"
...yet
2. you ridicule others using similar opinions and wording
(myself I used "MONSTROUSLY-inflated")
3. you have NOT proved it is not so. (market rising is NOT prove of no bubble - on the contrary!)
4. in order to look smart you come out when we make new high.
While you were MIA in selloff!
Really?
WHERE were you at the bottom of -10% correction ???
Not here, that's where.
Why did you not come at that timing with your chest showing?
5. we were wrong - ABSOLUTELY
but get this:
EMPHASES is on "WE"
That means ALL OF US, so you are invited and included! (see point nr 4!)
Should I wait for you to say you are never wrong? I feel that's what I smell..
6. your* blog or whatever that is, was nice and sounds neutral and that's how is supposed to be.
But here, here your* posts (*if is the same person!) go personal with the readers.
And even it it was allowed by TOS, is actually empty, not warranted, no merit. Some of your assertions are completely untrue. take for instance the assertion of what bubble opinionated would do with gold.
---
About the blog article - it fails conveniently (or the writer wouldn't know it in the first place) to include peripheral consequences of market advance. For example market appreciation relative to money erosion, or true company/s prosperity (i.e. of i.e. AAPL got it correctly vs MSFT hence one is more empty than the other).
Being young is good man, but sure inflates that ego into bad territory.
Why don't you post as neutral toward others as possible. Try it, you might like it.
We could be friends you know.
Bottom line, thanks for your input anyway.
(this post took me ....1 hour as I had to drop it and attend wife's demand to attend her games, and those are online games, fun but now? During market? Oh, the humanity)
Jef I hope it corrects before that target
And I think it will.
I only hope it'll be a normal correction and not a sideways correction as it's harder to jump in it.
I'd say few more things but it's a bit cumbersome from a phone.
I hope I'll put in a trade tomorrow in this train wreck of a one-way centralized controlled "market".
I find-it hard to believe it's just L2
I studied L2 to the bone
I studied it in books, and I studied it live exhaustively
Yes it is useful, but by itself it is weak.
One example: strong bid, then next day reverse, or 2nd or 3rd day strong bid, then gap bellow the 1st day with strong bid - resulting in either no gains or loss.
So how can you do it with just L2? You can not. No one can.
There is one element I found, one thing that gives you an edge. It is namely the signals the computers give to each other for a bottom/top, basically for a reverse, and/or "bid" or "squeeze".
Each L2 is showing it in a different way, and you have to set your L2 to see it, and you have to watch for it constantly like a hawk to catch it as it lasts mere seconds.
Watching it like this for the market hours is very stressful.
My broker/s screwed me over with platforms and L2 few times. That's how I got to see that it is different manifestation in different platforms, some better some poorer.
And it also because those screw-overs ("changes" and "improvements") that I finally gave up and stopped following them. Now I even don't have much of a L2, it's rather poor L2, hard to find those signals even by me that I know to see them - so I just use charts and throw trades at it.
Sometimes I kinda miss it.
It was fun. Sometimes the computers would not listen to "daddy" computer (I assume it was the fed-central, or GS computer) and "daddy" had to send that signal again and again few times, and even if reluctantly, the rest will fall in line and proceed with selloff or rally , whatever the case would be.
I have not seen not even one single failure of this signal in a 3 years span I watched. However, it was strongly correlated with chart technicalities. Meaning, it will coincide with a support or resistance more often than not.
Of course I refer to index etfs exclusively
SPY closed the last gap. Now UP?
In theory that should be happening.
But !!
Other cousins did NOT close the said gap, they lag. Worse so, they closed it partially.
So... since SPY is not alone in this game, I assume that it will be subjected to pressure from the peers.
So no UP much but down will be the ST pressure.
Also, depending on your level of charting, you may think 200 was a support. It darn tricks you to think like it. They made it look "support".
But if I look at it, I say NOT support just yet, not 200.
So we bounced the 200 to make believe. I suspect an "oh no" about that 200 pretty soon.
Only if they jack the market higher like drunken feds, only then we can have a support at 200.
Simple
"Yet people still use charts and imaginary lines?"
uhm, say what? Come again?
"Charts and imaginary lines?"
That would be the most of us if I'm not mistaken.
And what is it that you do use if I may ask ?
I imagine is something that has nothing to do with charts and TA then?
And, BTW, it's that little matter, that..... if you look closely, this board, which you've been happily using, is meant to be primarily about TA, and that would be exactly charts, lines, and funny shapes, to name a few - so I don't get it.
I'm rather new to this board, is something I'm missing?
The only things you can use other than "charts" are :
1. Nothing, just buying and selling on a whim.
2. Speculative trades based on TeeVee or papers advise.
3. Fundamentals
4. Using a financial adviser or broker (however, this does not count as this is in fact using "charts and imaginary lines" through that person)
Am I missing anything ?
Just so we are clear, whatever you are using is fine by me, and while you may laugh at silly me using charts, I'm perfectly happy with them. Oh, I use also fundamentals and "TeeVee" but not too heavy, and rely on charts... that's how I did not get trapped above at OIL 110 !
It's intriguing, I'm a bit curious now
I might enter for a day trade today
I must be nimble, not to be suckered in at these MONSTROUSLY-inflated valuations by those controlling the market
so another -1% and I'll be nibbling 'bite and run'
- I will also load the cistern with OIL when it finds a bottom
I expect that to bring a tank-load of profits
• I've been holding a relatively small oil position , was green red green, and of course currently red ---..... no kidding here - I bought it and hold it for one reason, so to jinx the oil rally and to prevent the oil from ranging or rallying any longer, and as you can clearly see , it worked like a charm
• ...now I wait with the real cash to buy oil on the cheap :) hehehe and hohoho
this is NOT a selloff, nor top (yet)
so be prepared for more officials and (their CONTROLLED) media lying non stop to scare (tactics) you from participating in enriching yourself from market inflationary rise
(i.e. "market is selling because oil is selling" BS of the day)
I expect a -2-3% correction so I can reload my longs
I would even say the -3% correction should be in extension of today's whatever corrective gain
interim-Top comes when OIL and/or GOLD will bottom
reason: big boys hot money has to be rolled into something good
(reason 2: a conspiracy reason based somewhat on speculation. Since few adhere to such endeavors let's just say it is tightly related to reason 1 or even a deviation of it)
So if you are curious where this goes, how high, there, I gave you the target to watch.
My question is different - how high this equity market will continue shooting vertically up like a penny stock, parabolic , without consolidating along the way.
(I also need said consolidation to reenter, or they want no one in anymore until the top?)
they want us to believe no distribution apparently
as they made sure to buy it up in last hour to prevent closing at the lows
but that's a hung man
increased volume on Monday should confirm distribution
Then the small pockets peasants should buy the long awaited dip
Make it decent to count
flat line can be very bullish
a step as they call it
but if the day closes at lows, under the circumstances it will reek of distribution, which will bring in weakness.
And here will come the dip I'm looking for.
Bear in mind, today is EOW and EOM
So naturally they'll like to preserve the advance and break of resistances.
The charts will then push into action the puppets (traders) any way the master puppeteers (boys with toys - money that is) want.
I doubt we'll see a crash. The markets showed us just how safe they are under the fed/s. Any substantial dip will be bought with impunity. This should convince and make the smart traders to reasonably believe that ANY dip, even 5¢ ones, will be bought and bring a profit.
I don't buy the 5¢ ones, but just saying. I buy a bit more substantial dips.
it has been one hell of a weak month, October, with so much displayed weakness that makes new highs !!!...
November should be strong as well, just close your eyes press the buy button and buy dips, that's all.