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Someone looks like they want stock ..... a quick flurry late Friday ..... a couple buys this AM .... and bid moving northward again.
Still doesn't appear that anyone is willing to sell.
Amigo Mike
Bagger,
It doesn't appear that anyone wants to give up stock lately below 70 cents. In the past, I've had no problem camping out at or just below best bid and landing shares, but that has not been the case of late.
No sellers to be found. Hope that changes a little as I'd like to land more shares on the cheap.
Amigo Mike
A yahoo poster ........ thinking that HEPI will be bought out by Pfizer ..... with a $15-$20 price tag by July 2010. =)
I am certain there will start to be more and more rumors in this regard if HEPI in fact does have a "discovery" on their hands.
The new IP law firm that HEPI hired ..... Kohn & Associates ..... they've done IP work for pharma titans. No doubt a phone call from them could certainly open doors in the right places.
Cholesterol is a $35 billion market currently. Not to mention there are expectations of PAZ having some level of effectiveness against other targets (aids, cancer, inflammation, allergies, prostate, etc) as well. There's no telling what the true value of this could be to an acquirer .... if all were proved out.
Fun to dream about though.
Amigo Mike
Hercules,
Actually might be a good thing. Personally, I don't think the general investing public has an idea about this stock right now.
That is a good thing ..... because if HEPI comes to the table with a discovery and can prove its findings ...... everyone will want a piece.
Amigo Mike
spongi,
Been around this name for years.
The current situation ..... could be one of those "once in a lifetime" deals. If you've been following, HEPI has been testing PAZ for getting close to a year now .... trying to ID the active ingredient that lowers LDL and raises HDL. Pharmas have spent billions and have had no success raising HDL. Their LDL drugs all have side effects. PAZ has no side effects.
HEPI recently hired a top biotech IP law firm to handle patent filings. The initial provisional filings are what kicked off this rally .... it has been all time record volume since. The word "discovery" has been put out there. If true .... the potential is enormous.
Amigo Mike
It is amazing not to see new investors posting about this stock.
The price is up 5 bags in just a few weeks and volume has been many multiples above average.
Amigo Mike
Reden,
It doesn't appears to me that blocks are being purchased over the ask. There has been and still appears to be a professional at work on the stock.
It could appear at times the trade posts above the ask but at the same time, the ask moves up and down immediately upon trade completion. Unless you track the actual bid and ask quote movement .... you wouldn't see it.
Reality is that someone or group of someone's has been moving around size blocks for some time. Some may have to do with the pile of stock bought in the low 20 cents range ..... turning over 3 1/2 times in a short period of time is alot.
The stock simply needs to see some longer term investors take out the short term (flippers) supply. Every time that happens, the stock moves to the next level.
Amigo Mike
Timberline management has been very frugal in the past with regard to acquisition of just about everything. I have not found them to be frivolous in their spending at all.
Bringing SMD into the fold and into the culture TBLC has created .... leads me to believe there is a high level of synergy here. SMD is basically coming public via TBLC ..... and SMD is VERY highly regarded in the mining business. If the general market wasn't much aware of TBLC before ...... the acquisition of SMD will certainly change that. TBLC is putting together a top notch full service, mining services company ...... and as a result, TBLC can leverage its own expertise going forward to help develop its own blue sky possibilities.
That being said ...... You are probably right about the general ballpark on the price tag. I'd expect the acquisition price tag will not be excessive however. I'd expect a large chunk to be in TBLC stock (likely restricted for a while) so Guill can leverage his company to maximize his worth even further. Too much debt service would eat into profits.
Amigo Mike
Swapper,
How can you make your earnings assumption when you do not know the profitability of the company or the structure of debt/equity and cash in order to fund purchase ???
Profitability and how it is paid for may significantly alter the level of contribution per share going forward.
I'm looking at roughly $140 million in annualized revenues for the combined company, but the net profit is unknown. I could guess from your statement that potentially 15% makes it to the bottomline for SMD after taxes. That would be ~$15 million net divided by over 30 million out now. But there are bound to be more outstanding shares with the closure of this deal.
Amigo Mike
Metoo,
You sound like one of the whiners on Raging Bull.
Below is the presentation you are referring to. Slide 5.
"Furthermore, Timberline will not rely on dilutive equity financing to fund its exploration projects"
http://www.goldseek.com/goldcasts/tblc/
The presentation clearly shows the baseline business as 20 drill rigs. Then shows what will happen if they can add 4-8 more rigs. They didn't say they WOULDN"T do financing to grow the drilling business. You do understand this company has two distinct business lines at this juncture, right ?
You also don't seem to get that TBLC could have possibly been presented with another opportunity on the exploration side that would require some cash. BUSINESS CONDITIONS CHANGE DAILY. It is up to mgmt to react accordingly. If TBLC needed some immediate cash to fund another project, I've no problem with that as long as it produces in the future.
From the financing PR:
"Proceeds from the offering will be used for the purchase of drills and support equipment; permitting, field work, and drilling at several of Timberline's exploration projects; debt reduction and general working capital. Proceeds will also be used to evaluate merger and acquisition opportunities in mining services and exploration."
Only a small portion of the PP was earmarked for "PERMITTING, FIELD WORK and DRILLING AT SEVERAL TBLC EXPLORATION PROJECTS". This is TBLC's BLUE SKY dude. Don't you get it ???? This is where the company's home run potential lies. So what if TBLC spends a few bucks advancing the development of its exploration properties. That could only lead to them being JV'd and developed ...... we wouldn't want that would we ? (tongue firmly planted in cheek). You do understand that TBLC will have its own motivated drill crews and rigs drilling our properties. Our own people doing the work gets us what amounts to a wholesale discount.
You'll also notice in the same PR:
"We are very pleased that this offering was oversubscribed due to the support we received from existing investors, including Praetorian, our largest shareholder. We are also delighted to welcome many new retail and institutional shareholders to Timberline."
Seems like investors were overly eager to jump in on this PP including existing investors and new institutional players. Wonder why they don't have the same concern you do ????
Lastly, retail investors have had AMPLE opportunity to buy TBLC at prices just above those of the PP. The PPers stock is restricted and can't be sold immediately. The average price is $3 in total when considering an exercise of the warrants. This stock has been PENNIES above the $3 level SEVERAL times since Late August. So don't cry about the PPers getting an unfair price. If you bought any of those dips in recent months, you could sell recently for 40-50% profit with no restrictions. PPers can't do same.
You should probably rethink your investment here. You clearly don't understand financial markets or this company.
Amigo Mike
Well said TradeSwapper.
Frankly, this company is still quite simply unknown in the general marketplace. There appear to be a small group of investors who have picked up on this one early and are sticking to it.
This is a gem of a stock and only needs to hit on one of its gold properties to make for a huge, huge money maker. I've not been able to find another company like it in the gold arena.
Excellent mgmt team. Unique business model. Mgmt delivery is spot on so far. Still relatively unknown outside of die hard gold bugs. PM prices strong and likely to strengthen. It doesn't get much better in the micro cap arena.
Amigo Mike
No chatter after the patent announcement ?
Amigo Mike
Westy,
I'd say that comment is a wee bit off base.
HEPI would not even know how the clinical is going.
I suspect news of 5 new possible distributor covering the entire US and news of a combo version of PAZ has something to do with it.
I also think it possible the identification process for the ingredients in PAZ might be coming to the forefront and some peer reviews of the Cameroon clinical beginning to circulate.
Could be a very busy couple months here.
Amigo Mike
Conference Call 1/30/2007
I thought the call went very well. I think we are lucky to have Dr Ingolia. He gave a history of his experience which fits exactly with what is needed for HEPI.
He then laid out a 6 point plan for the company.
1. Duplicate the Cameroon Trial results with another trial here in the US. He indicated HEPI had an agreement with a company in Minnesota and the trial was subject to approval by an IRB. Once approved I'm sure we'll hear about it. He seemed to indicate mid February for a start ..... so he is moving quickly. The trial will be on CRP. Trial to conclude in the summer and results by late summer early fall. I got the impression additional trials for cholesterol and antiviral (including HIV) would be high priority but somewhat dependent on finances. My guess if they had the coin right now, they would be on cholesterol immediately.
2. Identify the active ingredients in PAZ. A major item as he felt it would be unprecendented to work towards pharma targets and deals without having that information locked down. He mentioned Yale University at some point during the call and I'm not sure if I heard it correct but I was left with the impression that scientists at Yale were evaluating or working to identify PAZ.
3. A follow on to #2, file additional patents and make absolutely sure they solidify this area as best possible so as to make absolutely sure they have all the protection possible.
4. HEPI priority is to increase nutraceutical sales. Discussed the 70 or so retail outlets in Arizona that now stock PAZ at retail. Hired a sales rep for PAZ to help the marketing of PAZ at retail. Did not mention sellthrough or any sales stats. Also mentioned a vigorous marketing push coming. This included a deal with a new distributor that would market PAZ under a private label.
5. Veterinary applications. Discussed Dr Overbo's work with cows with mastitis where antibiotics had failed to work. I didn't quite catch everything on this but I thought I heard Dr Overbo would be moving towards validating this area quickly. I scribbled that something would be done by the 3rd-4th qtr.
6. Vigorously pursue multiple pharma targets via HEPI Pharma. HEPI Pharma can concentrate solely on pharma applications. The advantage to setting HEPI Pharma was also so that there would be no question this division was strictly pharma and it would make it easier to work with pharma partners. Pharmas generally don't work with nutraceutical companies.
There was mention of Hamilton Jordan working his magic for HEPI. The gentlemen highlighted in the FOX News piece were first up during the Q&A. One gave an impassioned mini speech that he wouldn't be alive today if it weren't for PAZ. He and his partner also indicated they have 1 1/2 yrs of clinical data on their personal illnesses. They indicated a ZERO VIRAL LOAD and a return to normal life.
Overall, I think Dr I laid it out as best he could so far. I think the plan seems pretty much on target. I think it possible, with some funding, that HEPI would have 2 and maybe a 3rd trial going, likely a couple institutions/labs working on the identification of PAZ active ingredients. I got the impression some top people have already looked at it and have not been able to identify it. Might have an NCE on our hands. Lastly, I was struck by a comment from Dr I indicating the PAZ was grown under starvation type conditions, i.e. HEPI does little to provide sustinance. The result is secretions by the organisms which is what PAZ is when filtered off. He indicated this is the same way certain antibiotics are created.
As far as the stock, someone appears to continue to sell. My take on that is ya gotta do whatcha gotta do but I would say that Dr I appears to be the guy in the right place at the right time.
All in all, I would upgrade the stock from "a roll of the dice" to "a speculative buy" with the expectation of seeing the launch of a US clinical trial in 2-3 weeks for a largely unmet pharma candidate. I'd also be looking to see what Hamilton Jordan brings to the table and relationships with more US institutions to turn up the heat on the process of identifying PAZ.
I think an investment here could return 2-5 times your money during 2007.
Amigo Mike
If you liked this stock prior to the CC and announcement of the trials in Cameroon, you have to like the price at this point.
This here looks to be the time you'd want to quietly accumulate for the next move. All it will take is anything from HEPI indicating PAZ is gaining traction and/or attention in the marketplace.
Personally, I'd like to see a distribution arrangement and a collaboration to further validate the results from Cameroon.
Amigo Mike
What makes you think we should expect a JV soon ?
The results are excellent and there should be industry players out there taking notice. Personally I would hope a potential partner has been waiting in the wings .... waiting to see the results.
Amigo Mike
I don't think they understand ........... LOL.
Guess we'll have to see what the webcast has to offer.
Amigo Mike
From a knowledgeable poster on RB ....
http://ragingbull.quote.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=HEPI&read=270
Amigo Mike
Can't believe how quiet it is here on the eve of the most important announcement in company history.
Any opinions on the trading Monday ??? I understand a press release will be made prior to the market opening tomorrow.
Gap up ??? How much if any ??? Highs and lows for the day ??
It is also amazing to me the company is broadcasting the meeting live on the internet at Noon EST. I can't for the life of me think of any reason they would do that unless the news was hugely positive. Be interesting to see how this plays.
PR before open I'd assume generates tons of interest. Probably 3-6 hours between PR and webcast for everyone to see should generate even more curiosity.
I don't think there are a huge number of shares floating around on this stock. Could make for an interesting day.
Amigo Mike
You gotta be in tomorrow people is this thing is for real.
http://ragingbull.quote.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=HEPI&read=261
Amigo Mike
Wouldn't you call excellent results for HIV and CRP .... "blockbuster" news ?
Be nice if HEPI also gave a rundown of all the other indications PAZ has been shown to be effective on.
I figure if you know about this stock now, you have to buy today and Friday because there is no telling what the stock will do on Monday. I don't believe there are that many shares available in the float at present.
Amigo Mike
I am curious ...... what do you guys think the stock will do the remainder of this week and early next week as the trial results are announced ???
Just curious as to the expectations .............
Amigo Mike
It is time to back up the truck on PRXI.
It is a simple story that only gets better from here. Now that the partnership arrangement is settled, the company can move forward with its plans on Bodies as well as expansion into the 3rd exhibit line.
Its only a matter of time before the micro and small cap funds and analyst pick up on the story. The presentation at the Singular conference on Thursday should certainly heighten interest in the stock.
A value microcap = PXHB.
If you spend a few minutes looking at this company you will find it has recently become profitable. Owns and exhibits artifacts recovered from the Titanic. Has recently launched a new Bodies exhibition.
Should report a strong QoQ increase in earnings within a few weeks.
Solid business plan if executed as expected. As many as 13 traveling exhibitions slated to run concurrently by late next spring.
On top of all that, the Titanic assets and salvor in possession rights the company owns are estimated to be worth better than $100 million ..... of which only about $5 million (cost of recovery) is carried on the balance sheet.
To borrow a poster's handle here ..... very possibly a 10 bagger over next 12-18 months as earnings ramp sharply higher. Plenty of info available on the Raging Bull site.
Amigo Mike
VFNX - The Dataflash Corporation
http://www.dataflash.us
Howdy folks. Emerging turnaround in this stock. Having cleared up quite a bit of its checkered past ..... new mgmt purchased a small ACH business called United Capturdyne 1 year ago. Capturdyne's business is clearing high risk ACH transactions upon which they generate 90% gross margins.
Basically this stock trades at .27x.33 today. Should report first profitable FY ended July 31, 2002 sometime this week. I expect the company to have earned .03/sh for FY02, its first profitable year ever ! In addition, the 1st qtr 2003 ends 10/31 (10 days away) and will have a favorable comparison YOY against the 1st qtr FY02 (aug-Oct 2001) which was the last loss reported by the company. I'd expect trailing 12 month earnings between .07 and .09/share for the 12 months ending 10/31/02 . Those numbers are not likely to be released until early December, however, if they only post flatline growth, that's what they would amount to. A modest PE of 10-12 should equate to nearly a triple by Christmas.
No Debt. ! Line of Credit for $300K. 18.9 million shares outstanding, 12 million share float .... although tightly held.
There are significant new client additions pending including Crosscheck, the 3rd largest check guarantee company in the US, and a new stored value card program about to rollout out which should further add to revenues and earnings for next year. Quickly becoming a cash cow ! I look for somewhere near $1 by Christmas.