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Your story might be funny, but it's meaningless if you don't mention the close (if green or red).
If I'm not mistaken you don't realize the importance of that crucial technical factor. It kinda ruins the joke.
Maybe you have a point, but I can't see it given the missing Close factor. There are other factors just as important, but the close is an absolute need in a comment about psychology of trading to have a standing.
Poking humor at bears or bulls in general is fine but when you include a supporting technicality in the joke, like you did now, better make it standing, who knows, may help.
Now here's ONE thing for edification: bears will NEVER get excited if the market close green (so no averaging down/up) with the exception of strong gap closed in slim green, and last time (recently mind you) that they pulled such a stunt, that indeed was a bear trap for a while.
I also got trapped in it with some (modest) shorts and had to wait days and days to get my money out (and some profit).
But I'll do it again given the chance. As shown, it did work in my favor however "the hard way".
It is pretty similar to the opposing exhaustion gap down where bulls buy and ramp it up.
For some reason that would be constructed also as a joke on bears now wouldn't it
Gap up gap down, seems all bear joke material in a bull market.
Happy holidays
What's Best Oil ETF ?
It depends on few factors. Best for one is worse for another and vice versa.
First thing first !!!!!!!!!!!!!
It is paramount to understand that under NO circumstance you study and/or make trading decisions based on ETF charts !!!!!!!!!
You make an analysis only on the underlying vehicle, in this case (Oil) $WTIC !!!
If you are satisfied with a conclusion there, then while you watch THAT chart you trade the ETF.
You may use the charts of ETF only on few exceptions: when you see a decent overlap (typically on ST), and/or when there is a clear picture (like the case of my chart for SPY).
ETFs:
I suggest USO. (In Canada they don't have something similar, no 1x, only 2x so there is no alternative)
It has good volume so it works well in ST even on MT (NOT on LT!)
If you are greedy like me, then use UCO (2x Bull) and SCO (2x Short) , they are 2x volatility, so in ST you can capture nearly double the moves.
(In Canada you can have something similar, HOU.TO for 2x Oil bull)
All these 2x ETFs have an overnight erosion problem, so you better be right in direction as they leak value (your money), and of course only trade them NOT buy and hold.
I've been greedy and usually buy the 2x ETFs. Of course, I did have some serious screwups, but also some cool trades.
Live and learn!
Usually I step in gradually.
But even USO being a 1x has a leak. Just compare chart of Oil to USO. The oil rose to 140, then collapsed to 35ish, then came back more than 50% from the entire fall (110).
Now if you'll look at USO chart and compare, it followed the oil to the downside just fine, but did NOT follow the oil on its recovery !!!
On ST to MT it however seems fine, they sync pretty well, and that's our window of trading IMO.
Today Oil rallied 3.5%, impressive but not quite. Similar bottom-formations formed at 80... then 75 ...now 55
IMO they will keep it under pressure for the few days remaining to EOY (just imagine those portfolios holding Oil 100 and those portfolio managers feeling like fools - I bet they threw more of other peoples' money at it).
The elephant in room: New (All) daily-Close 52week-High
Even if it wasn't, even if it was near 52 week high, it would've still be extremely bullish.
The fed/government AGAIN helped the rich on Wall Street to get their "deserved" multi-million dollar bonuses.
While I have only very few reasons, I expect some volatility to come back in. I suggest traders take the opportunity and buy some --> but SHORT TERM, "Santa" style (if you wanna hold longer it's on you)
If you observed they drop the market when there is little to no reason. Very few bears benefited significantly, probably just the manipulators themselves.
"The good" news is that it's unlikely they put a correction in the market anymore , not the reminder of the year, not the beginning of the year. From fundamental side , they want to keep those fat million-dollar government/fed-granted bonuses, and there is also little reason to sell or take profits as the market is at 52w-highs, so this helps. The last reason will also linger in the beginning of the year.
So it's a steady as she goes, no Grinch showing.
It might be some volatility right at the end of the month as those trades will be regarded as 2015, so..
OIL will likely be under pressure for the reminder of the month as well, but I do expect some houses and hedges to take some long bets for 2015 sake..
I'm not them, as government/fed won't help me/us with money to throw at bets, so I have to wait for the charts to show me oil opportunities.
But oil is on my front and center every single day.
It is there where the big bucks will be made, not SPY or equities.
I expect moves of 5% and 10% likely to come in oil, as big elephant traders will jump in the market pool. If you trade 2x ETF then you double that, and unlike the inflated market, since oil is at (52w) Lows, everyone can (and should) dig in and ride those money making upcoming volatile oil waves. The Risk-Reward is impressive as well (on your favor!!!).
I guarantee it that when Oil will bottom the equities market pig will be DONE. A huge mountain of money will be "rotated" from equities into Oil (so they will SELL SELL SELL like never before the equities to the fools AND to each other to get every penny they can to throw in Oil and likely in Gold).
Don't let that upcoming wealth transfer pass you by !!!
(... fool me once is on them... fool me twice...!!!)
The only time I can see something forward is from pivots perspective.
Right now there is not much in the way of resistance. One can think 208ish is a resistance and I won't argue, but coming from support I suspect it will go higher through that resistance willing or grinding.
A more interesting case is the speed and strength, as for the last 24 months it has been on a tear, and this period is on record as the strongest in nearly 20 years !!!
Had it been parabolic rise, we would expect a crash coming that would put 1929 to shame. But "they" made sure it is NOT parabolic! So we can only expect fed-willing a correction now and then. I'd argue sooner giving we did not have one.
The last correction does NOT count because the "V" recovery !!!
But it could've been!
So the market "needs" (so to speak) a correction that counts, a correction similar to one we had recently down to 200, but NOT with V-recovery, so to flush out "weak hands".
So I can't see what's coming this week or next, but I'd say 187 is a buy and so 182 (absolute bottom for now IMO)
Meanwhile, what-to-do depends a lot on your trading. If you buy the ETF then no worries, just hold and average down, you'll be good. But if you buy options, then be nimble and wait for pivots to buy to diminish premium erosion.
So with options you kinda must be patient and wait like a lion for the right moment to strike.
Best is to follow the big picture. As per my large chart, even Stevie Wonder would see that SPY is again at resistance, so it is clear is a horrible place to initiate buys, and who has long positions (yes I know about Santa-rally) should look to trim them anywhere between 50% to 100% to keep most/all recent gains.
I put in my chart green circles in the channel (also hand-holding instructions), zones where long position should be initiated REGARDLESS OF (media)NOISE OR even INDICATORS.
On the last selloff SPY dropped slightly inside the first green circle on that channel (now it's history). Whoever followed and bought it (I did) made money. This will repeat again and again and again and again until it doesn't, but there are hand-holding instructions for that too.
If you can hit few home-runs, you can commit with more funds, make more profit, easier on the nerves too. I used to daytrade for years. Now I only use that knowledge and experience to better get in or out on longer term pivots like that home-runs chart.
So once the SPY gets inside of those circles, use whatever ST thing you know (ALL WILL WORK!!!!!) and get in with impunity.
At top of channel (like now) reduce/eliminate long positions (do NOT short).
Make money
without enough money behind algos/programs they are meaningless
So "if you can't beat them join them" is essentially all about the big money (or house backed by fed funds)
Let's take for example "Mr. Worst-Trader" in here or anywhere. He gets in at VERY TOP in 2000. Everyone doing the same thing freaks out and blow account/s. But "Mr. Worst-Trader" having enormous funds at disposal, remains calm, and implements "Algos/programs" .....all the way to the bottom !!!
Then all the way to the next top (and crash).
And so on.
So in the end, "Mr. Worst-Trader" is made right no matter what, and becomes "Mr. Big-money brilliant Algo-user", but in fact all nothing more than courtesy of piles of money.
If they didn't want someone in the club anymore (Lehman) , they withheld funds...
I wonder why someone will TOTALLY ignore charts before making a comment on the SPY or market for that matter
I get it QE, frustration, mistakes in trading, etc, I do get it, but why not admitting what the chart is showing, this is beyond my comprehension
It is like seeing red on the traffic light and insist that it must be green and cross anyway while trucks are coming at you, now what's the logic of that
In our case it means, while we disagree with fed policy, WHY NOT MAKING MONEY while disagreeing ?
We are not here to make politics. The sole reason we're here is TO MAKE MONEY !
Everyone going against SIMPLE with-trend trading plan FAIL
It's the rule of the beast
Even lions know that.
Few hand-holding things:
- This was not a V bottom. The 2 sides CAN be asymmetrical, but here we had a vertical right one, and that is an exclusion exception.
- (as a consequence) It moved too fast back up, too near resistances, so I expect some consolidation ("volatility").
Don't waste it and get in with the program.
Be well
THE ROAD-MAP TO HOME-RUNS (use daily for trading-guidance)
The true picture of 1000 words, trend revealed.
From what I can share.
Enjoy and don't let them sharks and talking heads scare you out of this money making scheme.
As you can see it is REALLY EASY.
The hard part as always is to follow the plan. In this chart the days look cramped. Believe it or not this is not bad. When the time comes for you to act, as per these instructions, you will very likely be scared by noise and small-detailed charts boo-hoo. It will be up to you and you alone to ignore the (yes, scary) noise and punch the MMakers with your orders, then hold for the home-runs. Just look how many would've could've should've are there!
Further notes:
1) The ADX: touch of the lines signifies of course reversal ahead, but NOT guaranteed!
2) very important - this long term channel is actually a steeper channel after it broke out of a more tame channel. So in the even this channel collapses, there will be support on the other one (Not shown)
3) We're now (Now 2014) very near other major resistances (not seen in chart), so use caution and ST trading methods to wiggle in-out better.
4) The smaller "mini" channels have explanations of their own, but rules are quite similar.
(1st 2 boxes at left are notes for them) So nearly all notes are for the big 3-yr long channel.
For better view click 2 times on chart to magnify it (to max).
Now you have no excuse anymore to stare at the market's "insane" (forever-green) action and feel helpless, muttering you don't know what's going on, etc, not sure what to do.
All is needed is the right tool (and patience and discipline - also tools).
(I posted this TWO WEEKS before already in November/14 - and you can see just how outstanding on the money analysis AND trading plan it is ! This should help lots - be all winners ->>> IT IS UP TO YOU !!!)
(Caution: I reserve the right to modify and/or take any chart off)
it looks like selling to me
I don't hear talk of PPT, wonder why
Being Crude
from plus +1% (gap up ?)
to -2%
in all just the usual another nice daily -3% selloff to bulls
...another day another -2% on oil... !!!
A LOT of bulls got slaughtered there !
Those are not just "oil bulls" but full fledged bulls (on all the official bull). After all, if one believes the economy is great, then the energy will be booming, so there is no choice but be bullish across the board.
For some unfairly tortured bears this might be of little payback comfort, but it's reality.
From market metrics point of view, this money (buried in oil trades gone wrong) is GONE , no chasing stocks (plus vengeance/chase syndrome on oil now going on).
Since oil market is huge, it is basically the elephant in the "market room" - the place where all should be focused squarely.
Once that bottoms you can make a truckload of money AND SAFE!
As I keep saying, Oil bottom will mark the market top as will draw the money like a hungry GREEDY vacuum.
Is not to say SPY won't reach 250 for 2015 before that or ...at the last moment 2015 EOY pump which the feds are so good at with free money.
nasdog is FOUR times bullisher than the rest!!!
this is beyond unbelievable insanity
this alone is a foretelling (insert here what I said before)
Boy am I glad I closed my shorts at the open :o
While I believe in more pressure, didn't have the stomach nor the time to go through all this again
Whoever kept holding the shorts ofter the open on high flying nasdog is a hero
I'm expecting another volatile day Friday
You can almost smell it
What happened last two days was both frustrating and interesting.
Also, my unchallenged statement in regard to December underwater cloud remains like a Damocles' sword.
It is not a force per se, but a beacon showing ST intentions, a tool to guide us in trading.
the first week of December holds the if-then-key
Latest traders (dip buyers and whatnot) are being trapped in there
(think of your short-positions trapped bellow, just in reverse of course)
IF - price goes into that cloud area (especially if makes a higher high)
THEN1 - everybody is out and happy ,,, (consequentially) ->
THEN2 - prices will go much higher
All this aside, SPY to 250 by EOY 2015 at current speed, also Nasdog is super-bullish (2x SP500) so in this light it is almost a guaranteed.
So concerns are only ST, December-bound if or not first week of December will be bought !
PLEASE point out where I'm wrong - if not, you better put the feelings aside and adjust your trading to make money
In the end is all about money
Few months ago when Oil was trading above 106 they were saying "due to fundamentals change (supply) we see the oil will go down to $80 by .....2019" .
It seemed far fetched given how until then they only used bullish talk and reasons when it came to oil commentaries, much like we've seen in markets in general (unrest in Iraq, tension in Russia, China hungry for oil, etc etc). So this was a -25% (bear market) negative call while the consensus has been bullish for years and years nauseating (similar to our reg markets media BS-mill).
But, in reality, it didn't need 2019, and we're still only months later after those media comments and the oil didn't go to $80 but to low $60s, an almost -50% drop in mere months !!!!!
What??? -50% ??? This is CRASH !!!
But we don't hear any of that kind of talk !!!
This is about how useful media is generally, and how it can get traders and especially the public in trouble.
That slightly aside, I am thinking now from a different angle, the general market angle. In the end it is all about money.
I'm sure lots of traders, some might have been big ones, poured ("allocated") funds (other peoples' money) in the oil all along and averaging down for greed and ultimately desperately to make good.
My angle here is that that money is now NOT chasing anything, it's dead money, and most importantly, it is not participating in nasdaq and SP. So it is less money to support SP/Nasdog insanity run.
I understand the fed is pumping, but the attention is IMO shifted squarely on Oil , and whatever money the fed is giving will ultimately be used to chase the Oil "for the Big trade"..
(Gold has a somewhat similar story, and ... seems stabilized already..)
Unless the fed can ORDER (with clearly stated consequences or else, for disobedience - good luck enforcing any) how the printed money must be used, this ultimately will impact the markets in a major way in spite of fed QE/pump.
Fed can NOT control one thing, a critical factor - Human GREED !
They deserve what's coming to them I guess.
The challenge for us remains to ignore the USSR Titanic's musical band singing bullish on the deck, and of course, good luck timing all this domino..
The charts reveal nasdaq has been most bullish of all indices.
I had tremendous support and buying.
The "megaphone" chart I posted also showed this.
So it stands the reason why would be strongly bought in a down day and finally go green alone while all rest remained red.
That is technical angle alone.
My feel is that it's insane and irrational to be like this but it has been what it is. Even today Nasdaq is reluctant to be too much red. It can be seen.
Contrary to what is believed, it is not the sp that leads the market but nasdaq. SP is the tail of the Nasdog. Therefore for a correction to occur nasdaq has to weaken and/or lag.
today professional media made critical comments (slip-of-tongue)
1) the recent (BS) rally was primarily confined in S&P500 at 15 majors (while having lots of under performers)..
2) WE (the professionals/Big Boys) started to sell (distribute to public/suckers) these 15 (overly inflated) majors.
3) and WE started to buy Oil and in particular Oil Companies (as they are good value UNLIKE the market)!!!!!
ROTATION INTO Oil
Just like I thought and forecasted back in my posts
I disagree with most said by "inside 6intelligence"
You are preaching to the converted
I am thinking exactly the same.
I'm amazed at the power they have to rise the market with one hand and sell the oil and gold down back into the ground (the margin calls and account blow-offs might be spectacular).
Today the energy market was funny with the game they played - the oil was at one end among the most sold off, and the natural gas on the other end being most gainer (+4% !!)
What a market joke
Not even chance for ST-top without oil bottoming!!
The capital must first have where to go !!
With the oil still selling they better stick with the equities no matter how overvalued is, not to mention it's backed up by taxpayers' money the QE-infinity safety-net!
Gold is trying, but it only seems wimpy efforts, maybe because the big money keep distance (?).
In "short" no top, not even a ST top.
And we just see this day after day after day.
Few pennies "dip" is not even a dip, it's just market noise.
The trend is UP
Any analysis that ignores the trend is prone to failure.
Since the trend is up I am looking for support pivots.
Some might not believe in them, but what else you are gonna use for trading..
I think a dip to bellow 206 is warranted ST given the market looks tired at 208.
On the other hand, Megaphone is not bullish and may forecast serious weakness ahead:
No "opinion" that attacks other posters is allowed!!!
We're not here to offend each other.
I allow plenty of chatter, maybe too much, but NOT toxic ATTACKS.
That was uncalled for and a TOS violation!
Do not talk about me anymore!
Now move on and post about shop not other posters!
Stay away from getting personal!
Talk about market if you have anything to say..
Be nice !
Behave
Nobody on long side cares that market's QE
QE set them straight no matter where and how wrong they ever enter!
It's a dream come true.
How can they not be faithful and confident day in and day out..
It has been six years of this !!!
The toxicity of QE is of no consequence to anyone on long side.
Prices doubling? Who cares. Cost of living up and good jobs gone forever? Who cares.
I want to see them how well they "trade" when the music stops one day.
But let's be fair to trading itself:
So far technically AND FUNDAMENTALLY the market, rigged or not, is UPTREND, and as a consequence any and all dips will be bought, even a 1 penny "dip"!
The bots have full batteries of money at all times, just shoot buy orders each and every day at any sell order they detect.
I guess any red should be cheered at-this-point
But any red bellow -o.5% is irrelevant, just a profit taking and a minor one at that.
So I won't do a victory dance.
If you see -o.5% and lower, then you can slightly indulge in bearish joy. At -1% you have something, while -2% you better look to cover and go long.
It has been happening over and over and over again.
This only until we cross the MOON !
Thanks Oddlot
I don't know if it's just me, but to be perfectly honest I failed to see relevance of that CMA. And it wasn't for the lack of trying as I'm all receptive to stuff about cycles.
I placed for example daily 50 and CMA 50 on same chart, and saw nothing of use, the CMA is just a tad back, and from my point of view is "so what".
I'm glad your CMA works for you. I only wish I'd see a use.
Thanks for taking your time and sharing.
All is not wasted as I did however find use for the reference of MAs showing only longer cycles, and that was cool enough.
(fact of the matter is I forever did know about it, how I couldn't, but lost the focus on it for a long time with all the work, so thanks for helping me refocus once again on it).
.
It is NORMAL for the indices to press (insanely) upward as the trend is upward, so the least path of resistance is upward.
I know, a lot of us see the market as overpriced and overvalued, bubble, etc, but that fundamental (and emotional) factor aside, it remains UPTREND.
And in uptrend the pressure is constantly up defying any NON-technical rationale.
Unless they change the speed (to faster or slower), the course is for 250 by EO-2015.
It can go there fast and deflate, who knows, but that's the target technically speaking for Hi of 2015.
(i.e. It can also go at 240 by EO-Dec 2014, then quickly climb to 250 in 2015, then sell sell sell or range entire 2015)
Oddlot, I also just found the explanation to that in StockCharts' site.
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?st=moving+averages%2C+second+number&id=chart_school:technical_indicators:moving_averages
There is no explanation to how could be used or useful.
So I still don't get it how this could be used.
There they do not talk of it as CMA ("Centered" as you call it), but "Shift Left"
You say "watch the price crisscrossing" it. Well, I used some of MAs I know as a quick evaluation test, and I got nothing.
But with this op I found something of interest to me that I used very long time ago, the charting of highs. At least something.
Oddlot, what is it doing the second set of numbers in MAs in the chart you posted.
For example you used MA 25,-12
What is it the relation, what is it doing the second number, the ,-12 , and why is it negative.
thanks
How to find a posted chart's setting ?
Right-click/properties only leads to static pic, no settings.
I searched a bit the StockCharts site but no success yet.
I remember not long ago reading somewhere about it, but can't remember where, was it iHub, was it StockCharts, can't tell.
thank you
EDIT:
is it :
- How'd they do that ? in Post 6917 (down the page) ?
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=74409478
Folks, GREAT deal on charting on StockCharts (TODAY-ONLY)
For who is interested of course, in charting.
But JUST TODAY !
Because Cyber Monday I guess.
Subscribe or renew 2 years and get 11 months free
This is like 40% off !
Some of us use this service and cutting costs (40% today) is money in YOUR pocket.
I just found out looking around over charts, so I wanted to share with you all.
I took the deal, who knows.
Anyway, I never got this type of discount so far.
You do what you have to do!
Good trading all
A lot of people will like that performance.
Just continue.
The market is full of money.
It sucks when you have to close your short at even money or even some loss :(
It feels unfair.
But muttering aside, I have to follow the conditions.
Still keeping my finger on Oil buy button , trembling but not pressed yet.
I wanted to, Friday, but I decided to let the selling dust to abate a little or a little more whatever the case will be.
Gold too looks desirable around here for a MT buy and hold
All the commodities should bottom in a hurry given that their prices is denominated in a fiat ever more diluted dollar.
Precisely like the Stock Market case when bottomed based on dollar dilution (then QE more QE etc etc)
Here's a closeup peephole and refresher
Honestly now, without those magic master lines and key, the observer would see only the averages, wiggling around, red and white candles, all anarchy, with no sense and no trade-plan jumping out of it. Even the recent rally, an insane rally makes perfect sense and calm is restored looking at my chart.
It also becomes astonishingly clear that chances for "breakaway" are slim to zero, and rather a correction (the sane of us expect) should come instead.
The stochastic is plateaued into overbought for four weeks, which is at or near maximum.
ADX both the direction and most importantly even the trend signal are pitted against plateau as well.
Yes we have QE and what not, but TA seems to work just fine if you correctly know where to look.
SPY has to start going parabolic or do one of the aforementioned 3 oopsies for me to abandon this old speed.
In this smaller chart, an excerpt for magnification, you can better see the Averages , the last bottom, the candles, and the gold lines. It's a clearer peephole.
Whoever is short this chart will make you sweat it less now, and empower you "to believe" and not be shaken out like before of a good trade (however, observe Jun-July up-grinding), and for longs, well, it shows you hold at high risk, and listening to talking heads and taking new long positions is a horrible idea.
(6M;20E;S780)
THE ROAD-MAP TO HOME-RUNS
The true picture of 1000 words, trend revealed.
From what I can share.
Enjoy and don't let them sharks and talking heads scare you out of this money making scheme.
As you can see it is REALLY EASY.
The hard part as always is to follow the plan. In this chart the days look cramped. Believe it or not this is not bad. When the time comes for you to act, as per these instructions, you will very likely be scared by noise and small-detailed charts boo-hoo. It will be up to you and you alone to ignore the (yes, scary) noise and punch the MMakers with your orders, then hold for the home-runs. Just look how many would've could've should've are there!
Further notes:
1) The ADX: touch of the lines signifies of course reversal ahead, but NOT guaranteed!
2) very important - this long term channel is actually a steeper channel after it broke out of a more tame channel. So in the even this channel collapses, there will be support on the other one (Not shown)
3) We're now (Now 2014) very near other major resistances (not seen in chart), so use caution and ST trading methods to wiggle in-out better.
4) The smaller "mini" channels have explanations of their own, but rules are quite similar.
(1st 2 boxes at left are notes for them) So nearly all notes are for the big 3-yr long channel.
Click 2 times on chart to magnify to max.
Now you have no excuse anymore to steer at the market's "insane" (forever-green) action and feel helpless muttering you don't know what's going on, not sure what to do.
All is needed is the right tool (and patience and discipline, also tools).
I think Oil vs SPX makes correlation sense
Low(er) Oil, an important and main energy, helps the businesses and the economy by lowering their costs.
In return this should be reflected in higher profits and better operations, leading to higher valuation, and finally reflected in (sorry) ever higher SPX.
The businesses got used to 100 oil. Now that the oil is lower, their profits should rise. What I don't like is that the savings are NEVER so far passed onto customers, but when the oil was on its way up, then hey, they passed ALL the extra (oil) costs onto the customers and then some (speculative and greed).
It's the lack of morals that I don't like, and it's running all the way up. Since this comes trickling down from the goonvernment officials, what else can we expect, it is harder to blame the businesses of unfair and dirty practices.