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Monday, December 22, 2014 7:10:00 AM
Right now there is not much in the way of resistance. One can think 208ish is a resistance and I won't argue, but coming from support I suspect it will go higher through that resistance willing or grinding.
A more interesting case is the speed and strength, as for the last 24 months it has been on a tear, and this period is on record as the strongest in nearly 20 years !!!
Had it been parabolic rise, we would expect a crash coming that would put 1929 to shame. But "they" made sure it is NOT parabolic! So we can only expect fed-willing a correction now and then. I'd argue sooner giving we did not have one.
The last correction does NOT count because the "V" recovery !!!
But it could've been!
So the market "needs" (so to speak) a correction that counts, a correction similar to one we had recently down to 200, but NOT with V-recovery, so to flush out "weak hands".
So I can't see what's coming this week or next, but I'd say 187 is a buy and so 182 (absolute bottom for now IMO)
Meanwhile, what-to-do depends a lot on your trading. If you buy the ETF then no worries, just hold and average down, you'll be good. But if you buy options, then be nimble and wait for pivots to buy to diminish premium erosion.
So with options you kinda must be patient and wait like a lion for the right moment to strike.
Best is to follow the big picture. As per my large chart, even Stevie Wonder would see that SPY is again at resistance, so it is clear is a horrible place to initiate buys, and who has long positions (yes I know about Santa-rally) should look to trim them anywhere between 50% to 100% to keep most/all recent gains.
I put in my chart green circles in the channel (also hand-holding instructions), zones where long position should be initiated REGARDLESS OF (media)NOISE OR even INDICATORS.
On the last selloff SPY dropped slightly inside the first green circle on that channel (now it's history). Whoever followed and bought it (I did) made money. This will repeat again and again and again and again until it doesn't, but there are hand-holding instructions for that too.
If you can hit few home-runs, you can commit with more funds, make more profit, easier on the nerves too. I used to daytrade for years. Now I only use that knowledge and experience to better get in or out on longer term pivots like that home-runs chart.
So once the SPY gets inside of those circles, use whatever ST thing you know (ALL WILL WORK!!!!!) and get in with impunity.
At top of channel (like now) reduce/eliminate long positions (do NOT short).
Make money
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