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feb 12 press release said trial already started
sam
Based on last prs available, it is a great speculation. The pretty aspect was the way it appeared people in the know were accumulating.
If current price drops from .38 by .39 and does not pop above .40, technicals to me are saying maybe a hidden negative about to come to surface.
sam
thanks 2tmorrow eom
2morrowsGains/hrbn,
Thanks for the post. Among your favorites where do you now rank this company?
sam
Kozuh,
There is a belief of 1 month delay in revenue recognition, so all or part of big december jump may not be in 4th qtr.
thanks,
sam
see the ragingbull comments following my post there
if there is a 1 month lag, the big jump in december in total members will be reflected in the first qtr
in fact 1st qtr might more than double net income from 4th
one risk is if membership growth stalls even at a higher earnings, then the stock may be punished
also if we all think next qtr should jump dramatically it better do what is expected
sam
kozuh/cpne,
Thoughts?
4th qtr disappointment:
If my facts are straight this is the earnings progression:
194
1460
3114
3830
Conference call gave impression that the growth meant recurring. But with each month increase and december 50% above novem, turnover seems is happening so what happens if new memberships don't jump. Very confusing to me.
sam
4th qtr disappointment:
If my facts are straight this is the earnings progression:
194
1460
3114
3830
Conference call gave impression that the growth meant recurring. But with each month increase and december 50% above novem, turnover seems is happening so what happens if new memberships don't jump. Very confusing to me.
sam
I think the truth is the most significant pumping is by the company. That is the only issue worth long-term focus.
Trust the company or to not trust the company: that is the question.
Don't put life savings on this company but is it worth a nice position? The company has been screaming essentially "buy this company".
sam
Cytocore,
If he believes in just $10/share, I believe he can pick up 5,000,000 for 75 cents when the time comes with no personal risk.
5,000,000 now even at 50 cents would cost big money.
Also, where is all this huge buying coming from? Not a negative forbes article, not from a little read message board.
sam
Opinion of this?
We expect to be ready for volume production by mid-summer, producing up to 800,000 units a month on one shift," Dr. Ocana said. "With our cash-flow break-even point at a volume of between 80,000 and 100,000 units per month, we're projecting a very strong return right out of the gate."
Ctycore, Is he full of shit or is this going to be a cash-positive company soon? The company came through on getting their debt improved, people interested, why not believe now?
sam
Actually the press releases do look like promises of riches. The question everyone has to decide is how much to trust the promises as being solid.
In a few months hopefully the promises will start looking like facts.
sam
One could take the view that the company is pushing upwards their expectations as the press releases show which means either:
they are becoming too optimistic or they are being accurate about a great outlook.
It is not clear if they expect production capabilities to be adequate, ie with maybe 3 shifts or whether if demand is what they hope more production capacity will be added.
sam
if one could get the warrants at .75 and could sell at $10 versus sell at $3 which would one do
How can one go from 800,000 units to $150-$450 million revenue?
The press release does not say when the market range would be reached so first year I suppose could be considerably less but the press release says based on discussions so not exactly theoretical (we all are speculating as being solid figures).
Use then $150 million initially. If in reality 3 shifts at max capacity, 2.4 million units sellable per month within 1st months of full manufacturing.
$150m/12 12.5 million monthly
$2.4 million times $5 per test = 12 million
From a pricing standpoint I would think consumer billing of $20 would not be unreasonable, not a big deal. If so, distributors would do nicely if they paid $10.
Sticking though with an examined hurdle of $150 million revenue, a modest gross margin of 65% $97.5 million gross annually. Maybe taxable $60 million net income.
pe of 30 would translate to $6 per share by this method.
I guess it comes down to how well management is guaging the market. If they are being conservative, $6 will probably be very easily beaten.
sam
Throwing numbers around, my best guesses are:
I don't see in the report or press releases the cost. $10 sounds believable as a cost to the company while $50 charged per test sounds good as 10 million tests by $50 which is just above the revenue range provided. 10 million is also just above 800,000 per month production.
Any opinions/facts from anybody about cost to make $10?? or $50?? per test?
$40 profit roughly before tax. Use post tax lets say $25.
10 million tests is 5% roughly of worldwide market.
$250 million taxable profit. If pe on that of 30 and 300 million shares o/s would be a $25 stock.
Any flaws in assumptions?
sam
prvbwealth,
I think the story evolution and the chart are about equally convincing.
Theoretically if the story was as is but the stock remained in a tight trading range of 20-25 cents with a volume of 100,000 to 200,000 how different would you assess the situation?
sam
I think sell value would most likely be based on what management really thinks the company is worth.
For sure it would only be done if it is what is best for management.
I think we all in agreement that the risk looks very low on this company compared to the potential gain.
Looks to me like the company hopes e-2 can approach 800,000 units per month this year.
If it reaches 400,000 per month, what is the odds it will grow dramatically in another year from that?
sam
Thanks Doubloon for keeping us informed
sam
Doubloon have you learned anything since past 1/31?
sam
I don't trust this company. How about a persuasive argument as to why trust? Other words all this talk about waiting on contracts could mean absolutely nothing.
sam
Is there any old-timer who does not believe the future will be rewarding?
sam
I guess old adage never trust a board or company which deletes a lot.
sam
great post on global warming, what do you think?
Paul Harvey today said Greenland is currently coldest in 110 years if I recall accurately.
Also said Antartica has been cooler than for nearly 100 years, confused though since warm time of year there.
sam
Rawnoc,
I am surprised that with so many people looking at company ckys that fraudalent contracts were not exposed on board. Are you surprised? How can this be?
Glad I made a profit in this case.
sam
10 bagger,
I am curious as to what pinksheets would theoretically interest you.
I assume a ta that is not gagged would be first item.
I assume press releases that name names of partners which are well-known names who will verify.
Filed audited statements.
Then and only then? More criteria?
sam
Rawnoc, Here is another question. I threw out 100,000 cases as a figure sometime back for through Jan.
What is your price guess if 100,000 cases of revenue for quarter?
sam
prvbwealth,
A poster on vmzipcodechangers board brought this up.
However I think it is only a matter of time and it will be implemented if the 5-6 mins to inflate and deflate it is not a factor. Physicians may like pap smears better because they only take 30 seconds and of course time is money for the average OBYGEN.
I just sent this question to company, do you have any knowledge or opinion?
sam
Call it $500 million for 10 million women if company charges only $50 per test.
With the lower dollar figure and 5% market penetration roughly, use $20 after tax net income per test.
$20 * 10 million = $200 million earnings for 5% penetration.
pe of 30 $6 billion / 300 million o/s $20 stock price
sam
Call it $500 million for 10 million women if company charges only $50 per test.
With the lower dollar figure and 5% market penetration roughly, use $20 after tax net income per test.
$20 * 10 million = $200 million earnings for 5% penetration.
pe of 30 $6 billion / 300 million o/s $20 stock price
sam
Cytocore statistics:
The Pap test, also known as the Pap smear, is the current standard of care used to screen for cervical
cancer. The test detects precancerous lesions (which may develop into cancer if left untreated) and
cancerous cells before they spread or become visible to the naked eye. The Pap test currently costs
between $70 to $350 per test, depending on the laboratory and physician, and is administered to 55 to 60
million women each year in the U.S. Approximately 10% of these tests are considered abnormal.
Globally, approximately 180 million Pap tests are performed each year, according to the International
Consensus Conference on the Fight Against Cervical Cancer.
Despite the large number of Pap tests that are performed, there could be as many as 1.5 to 1.8 billion
women around the world who still require annual Pap tests but are not receiving them. In the U.S. alone,
roughly 60% to 80% of women with cervical cancer have not had a test in the past five years, and many
have not had a test at all—particularly among woman who are elderly, African-American, or in a lowincome
bracket. In addition, the accuracy of the Pap test is perpetually disputed. The Brigham and
Women’s Hospital, a teaching affiliate of Harvard Medical School, reports that approximately 20% of the
time, abnormal cells in the cervix do not show up on a Pap test. It is further believed by some gynecologic
physicians and researchers that the Pap test is typically between 50% to 70% accurate.
So 10 million in first full year at $100/test would be $1 billion. 10 million versus 180 million currently worldwide.
If all goes well I think $100+ stock potential.
sam
Cytocore statistics:
The Pap test, also known as the Pap smear, is the current standard of care used to screen for cervical
cancer. The test detects precancerous lesions (which may develop into cancer if left untreated) and
cancerous cells before they spread or become visible to the naked eye. The Pap test currently costs
between $70 to $350 per test, depending on the laboratory and physician, and is administered to 55 to 60
million women each year in the U.S. Approximately 10% of these tests are considered abnormal.
Globally, approximately 180 million Pap tests are performed each year, according to the International
Consensus Conference on the Fight Against Cervical Cancer.
Despite the large number of Pap tests that are performed, there could be as many as 1.5 to 1.8 billion
women around the world who still require annual Pap tests but are not receiving them. In the U.S. alone,
roughly 60% to 80% of women with cervical cancer have not had a test in the past five years, and many
have not had a test at all—particularly among woman who are elderly, African-American, or in a lowincome
bracket. In addition, the accuracy of the Pap test is perpetually disputed. The Brigham and
Women’s Hospital, a teaching affiliate of Harvard Medical School, reports that approximately 20% of the
time, abnormal cells in the cervix do not show up on a Pap test. It is further believed by some gynecologic
physicians and researchers that the Pap test is typically between 50% to 70% accurate.
So 10 million in first full year at $100/test would be $1 billion. 10 million versus 180 million currently worldwide.
If all goes well I think $100+ stock potential.
sam
2MORROW/HRBN,
Do you think $20 is a fair current price? What are your thoughts on when to sell?
sam
Opinions:
Is $15 a reasonable target? Net income of $200 to $300 million should easily lead to that.
sam
cleverrox/cytocore,
It is just now looking like it is shaping us as the real deal and the price is coming up.
Any success at all and the stock continues up.
sam
Poster prvbwealth on cytocore I noticed thinks based on revenue the company could reach of being a $30 stock without any reverse. I am hoping to see him give some thinking on that kind of price tomorrow.
I just know the press releases make it clear that they expect to be making postive net income by summer product launch.
sam
prvb on cytocore,
Could you give some detailed thoughts on possible $30 price target, it would be sweet.
Is this your biggest holding?
sam
tablepounding post on cycr from the ihub cytocore board:
In all my years of researching and analysing large- and mid-cap stocks and (most recently the last several years) micro-cap stocks, I have never come across an issue with the potential of CYCR. I have spent the last three weeks doing fundamental and quantitative analysis here (the cytocore website alone took up one whole weekend), and I am convinced this will be huge, and soon. The turn-around and absolved debt, the heavy insider ownership, the notes being converted into shares, the rapid addition of noted and respected members in the field to the staff and MAB, the high-quality affiliations and partnerships, the attention to shareholder value---it's astonishing. The audio interview with Dr. Weissberg, who has purchased shares on the open market, was very reassuring in the fact that he discussed his great belief in the company and it's products, and the candid way in which he discussed his preparedness to relinquish his role as CEO during the next phase to someone more adroit at the marketing end. The addition of Dr. Raab is a coup de grace. Look at his qualifications and speciality and you can see where this thing is headed. Worldwide distribution. The e2 collector can change women's lives. The products in the pipeline are equally exciting. This company is not vulnerable to sector rotation or bearish moods---as Baby-Boomers age, health concerns rise, and as the Third World becomes more industrialized, exposure to medical advances increases. Amazing potential here. Absolutely amazing potential.
cycr.ob read what company expects in latest pr by mid-summer
sam
thanks 2morrow eom