Greetings from Florida! Looks like WAG has been getting trimmed a bit. Maybe its just the first part of a shorter haircut?

GLTA,

Yank

Look for S/P pressure downward here as we approach the fiscal cliff. There are a lot of big holders that bought ginormous positions when this traded around 25 cents. They will want to pay the 15% LT cap gains rate if no deal is struck to extend the Bush tax cuts into January or beyond.

Huge volume will tend to drive down S/P in a linear correlation.

Don't forget the in-room adult movies!

Walgreens executives deserve the very best.

Yank

As for Miquelon at the Credit Susie shindig... what I want to know is "Will alcohol be served?"

LOL.

Yank

Milo, did you place a stop/loss or are you still long Walgreens? I think this could breach $32, next week, if there is no news. WAG is actually trading worse than the broad market, as are many other dividend payers in this cycle of "Fiscal Cliff" fear.

GLTA,

Yank

I like that concept and it is true to Obama's mantra about only raising taxes on the wealthiest Americans. There is a "flavor" of that in the current tax code in the sense that:

Today all investors get a 15% longterm capital gains tax rate.

If nothing changes and we go over the "Fiscal Cliff" then your taxrate on LTCG will rise to your regular bracketed tax rate which is determined by your adjusted gross income. The more you make, the more you pay. The less you make, the less you pay.

One point to ponder... how does this all affect overseas-owned shares such as controlled by A/B? Hmmmmmmmmmm...

Yank

A follow-up point on the fiscal cliff pertaining to Walgreens...

Stocks held less than a year are always taxed at full IRS bracket taxrates if there is both a gain and a sale. They will not be unduly affected by the "Fiscal Cliff" because they are ineligible for a long term capital gains rate.

The "Fiscal Cliff" concern arises from the failure to renew the Bush-Era tax cuts which included a lowering of long term capital gains rates to 15%. Without some agreement on extending these cuts, wealthy taxpayers could see their taxrate rise to as much as 43%, compared to the current 15%. That is a HUGE difference on stocks owned for more than calendar year 2012 which have seen substantial share price improvement since their time of purchase. That includes stocks like WAG that was around $24 when a LOT of today's holders took a position and now must consider whether to hold or sell before we near the precipice of the cliff.

I do believe that SOME form of amelioration will be reached. That said, I sold off longterm positions in mReits at the end of October since they have seen huge appreciation in S/P over 24 months and would be prime targets for a massive sell-off if people fear the higher capital gains outcome as the end-of-year draws closer.

WAG must be considered very vulnerable to such sell-off action... as much as a 30% S/P reduction if it moves linear to volume. This is precisely the action affecting AAPL and an enormous sell-off as investors that got in years ago freak out over potential tax liability after January 1st. Other stocks that I would consider highly vulnerable would include PCLN, PNRA, AMZN, MCD and, yes, RAD and SIRI.

GLTA,

Yank

The link that you posted is for a health club in Arcadia, California and has absolutely nothing to do with Arcadia Resources.

The reduced capital gains and dividend taxes were part of the Bush Tax Cut which expires January 1st, just like the middle class tax cuts which also expire. This is part of the "Fiscal Cliff" that everyone fears; it has nothing, per se, to do with Obama and he has been trying since the debt ceiling crisis to persuade the Boehner House to fix the problem. He wants higher marginal tax rates for the super wealthy to offset some of the cost. Boehner, yesterday, offered some tax reform concessions, like fewer IRS deductions, to help pay for some of the relief.

I am hopeful that with the election being over we will see some conciliation and agreement reaching across the aisle.

GLTA,

Yank

Yes, you are right... not much left to buy that they could afford. I would look more towards them paying down the MHS debt, but I am not close enough to ESRX to have a truly informed opinion. Paz klled of my Express interest with today's sophmoric C/C. Stupid, if you ask me.

CVS came back strong after their C/C. Today's close for WAG could be interesting as the big guys load up or unload based on today's news and yesterday's lies, IMHO.

GLTA,

Yank

For you Techies, next support is $33.69. It has already been as low as $33.77 on an upside broad market. Milo, I would be seriously thinking about a stop/loss if it breaks that level. The $33.48 support looks very shallow.

ESRX is getting hammered today on lousy 2013 guidance. I actually think the CEO's gross negativism was premature, emotional and immature. It was also ruinous to investors who will not soon forget his extreme comments if events prove him wrong... which I predict will be the case.

GLTA,

Yank

Stunning impact of negative 2013 guidance. Very odd timing with election results still pending.

What a dumb move. Insty's will revolt with S/P down over $10.

This company needs some new IR blood. This debacle was unnecessary and will set S/P growth back for at least a year as big players remain gunshy from further self-inflicted wounds.

JMO.

I will keeep digging, also. I would think a timeline in 2017 would be likely based on experiance with trains 1 & 2, but that may not be the case.

Thanks for the effort.

Yank

If Walgreens eased revenue to improve margins, how will that play with added loyalty programs and $25 gift cards offered to Express Scripts returnees... which I think can be counted as scant, at best. The cost of these programs will surely be consequential.

CVS reports, today. The street is expecting $.83 per share. I am expecting $.86 per share. I will also be looking at revenue growth against the backdrop of declines at both WAG and RAD.

Bet you will see Walgreens S/P below $34 by day's end.

Yank

Any info on when trains 3 & 4 are likey to go online? That's when things get really interesting, here, IMO.

Rite Aid SSS for October declined 1.1% vs. 5.9% for Walgreens. RAD was more heavily impacted by Hurricane Sandy than was WAG. November looks like it will be bloody. Better start praying for a huge flu season.

Miquelon's comment about dropping costly promotions to enhance profit margins flies in the face of the prior month's numbers and the launch of the loyalty program which surely adds to the cost line, just maybe not captured in GM but, rather in SGA. Either way, the alleged "strategic decision" looks more like a Romney campaign ad claiming Jeep production is moving to China.

GLTA,

Yank

I'm still waiting for the shareholders to sign off on the new Board of Directors! I also must have missed the proxy seeking shareholder approval for Alliance Boots.

These guys seem to think its is okay to simply put out a fluff piece in "Drugstore News" with self-congratulatory pats on the back for transforming the hedgehog into a new Walgreens... it's just that beyond the obvious vestiges of sushi, nail salons and on-tap beer in select "Flagship" stores, there is nothing concrete or metrically-supported to justify these huge and semingly arcane adventures away from the traditional drugstore milieau.

The best conclusion I could draw from the "Transformers" piece was: HOLY COW does WAG have a lot of new Executives, including a VP for just about everything under the sun. How can they hack store labor and then replace it with all these expensive, option-laden 3-piece suits? No wonder SGA looks so out of whack.

JMHO.

Yank

You will likely recall all my posts on "Wal-Born" which Yahoo routinely deleted as Terms of Service violations when all they did was link the scam to reputable published commentary. I actually quit posting there for a month or two over the insanity of all messages negative to Walgreens being deleted.

Yahoo message boards are a POS.

Yank

LOL.

No, DSN is happy just remaining the suck-up source of laudatory, worthless crap promoted by the Big 3 in retail pharma. But mostly Walgreens, because they cultivate the most yogurt among drug chains. What a hoot!

I posted a link awhile back on the Yahoo WAG board about a "Murder Mystery Party" Walgreens hosted for its HDQ employees at Christmastime, a few years ago. It was at the heighth of a cycle of misfill deaths in their stores when such an affair could only be construed as grotesque and macabre. I'll have to see if I can find that link, again. It was, of course, deleted at Yahoo along with anything else topical or meaningful unless it was "planted" by the WAG Corporate Sponsorship effort.

GLTA,

Yank

That's a truly sobering thought.

Then again,we ARE talking about Wade...

LOL.

Yank

One of the lessons I learned at substantial cost a few years back was precisely as you reference. I read a lot of recommendations from reputable sources about investing in BRIC as the U.S. economy tanked. The "talking heads" on CNBC, daily, were hammering that that was the place to be. So I invested around $100K in ETF's that were highly recommended as the perfect hedges to exploit that opportunity (other than Brazil with which I had currency valuation distrust from earlier exposure). I bought IFN, GCH and RSX... all highly rated and all of which tanked, costing me more than half my intial investment. Of these, the worst was The Russia Fund.

I would never again invest in Russia or China, and have almost as grave an opinion on India. Accounting standards are non-existent in many of these countries and there is no SEC governing the accuracy of their public info. I know dozens of other investors that were raped worse than I was on these foreign adventures, no matter how highly recommended they were by all the Wall Street Cognoscenti. Never again!

I think Walgreens is getting its pants taken down by KKR. It's like children playing "doctor" and the "patient" is Greg Wasson dropping his drawers for the enjoyment of Pessina and cronies.

JMHO.

Yank

Be sure to check out this site:

http://www.allianzworldwidecare.com and go to the section on Russian healthcare. Very interesting stuff. Makes you question the wisdom of an investment of shareholder resources.

Just put "russia" in the search box and click on the first link that comes up. <20% of the pharmacies are independently owned and only hospital-dispensed Rx's are paid by governmental healthcare, meaning most never get filled. While private insurance is allowed, it is far from prevalent.

Yank

Robb, Walgreens may have bought into a position with one of the world's largest single-payer healthcare systems... Russia. Why they would want to do this is, frankly, beyond me, but who could know since once again there is no I/R or PR to explain the JV.

There is an extensive report on the "drugstore news" website showcasing an enormous party Walgreens hosted to celebrate a DN cover store on how they transformed themselves. The problem is, beyond the "Wellness" blather which is far from newsworthy, there is nil detail on what it is Walgreens thinks they transformed themselves into.

Looked like a very nice party, though. Too bad shareholders weren't invited or clued into the reasons for such a fete which, ultimately, they paid for.

GLTA,

Yank

Let's hope he didn't pick up too many bad habits from Aubrey.

I have traded in and out of CHK for years. I've remained out since the scandals broke, but I made a lot of $$ there playing the trading range: buy around $20, sell in mid-$30's.

When nat gas plunged earlier in the year I took a major position in Sandridge because they had shifted their drilling emphasis by acquisition to petroleum. Following the Buffett Rule, I cashed out this position when it took a 10%+ dump. Thank God I did so because the elevator hasn't quit descending yet.

It has become my sense that trading gambits far more affect energy share prices than do logic, research or even results. I like Cheniere for the dividend and for its future value when the first two trains open in 2015. I plan to continue accumulating as I think there is a certain rise when actual exports commence. CQP is way ahead of the rest of the field in nat gas export because of the lengthy EPA permitting process which they have already completed.

I don't follow CTRX, but I did take a look. There was a plethora of 8-K filings. Their share price fell of a cliff in early October. No divvy. Are you into this, or looking at it?

Yank

robb,

That's your position, I respect it and I can't really disagree with you. I have said for some time that one of the key components in any decision I made to reinvest in WAG would require a change in executive leadership. There is IMHO a vacuum of accountability for both the acquisitions previously made and the lack of a reported business plan by Wasson & Company. We are not just talking $millions, but $billions in shareholder equity spent on adventures in home infusion, clinics, cyber-sites, retail drugstore acquisitions both small and large for which there is NO REPORTING or apparent accountability by the management that bought them.

The current lack of reporting does not bridge the gap between "Happy and Healthy" for investors. There is a day of reckoning coming, and at some point a Board of Directors either needs to ask the difficult questions or be replaced by one that has enough testosterone to adequately represent the interests of ahareholders.

The paucity of accountability for expenditures totalling into the $billions is wholly unacceptable and potentially a dereliction of duties by the Walgreens B-o-D by failing to demand an open and published accounting for the many, many expensive acquisitions made by WAG management over a sustained period of time. It is either explanation time, accounting time, change-in-BoD time, class action time or jail time. I see few other options.

GLTA,

Yank

You are surely welcome. I will also be looking at shorting Barnes & Noble/BKS who is getting its walnuts crushed by Amazon.

Good luck!

Yank

Sorry, but that is a ridiculous response that contributes nothing to an investment discussion of CQP.

NAT GAS is clearly the logical future for American energy independence. It positively, eventually should win out because oil reserves are globally depleting at the speed of China and India's growth as functioning consumer economies. But, as an investor, I can't say with certainty when this likely sure bet will occur. The oil companies are one of the most effective lobbying groups in Washington. They do NOT want to see conversion from oil to nat gas in either surface fleet or power generation because it intrudes on their monopolistic inner sanctum.

I support nat gas, and CQP is my second largest share holding, just behing Walmart in dimension. I continue to add CQP as a core investment.

Do you want to have a useful discussion, or just argue? I would like to see some intelligent engagement on this board as there is a lot of useful stuff to discuss and from which to benefit for all investors.

This will track downward as November sales decline, worse than October, which is a sure thing, due to hurricane impact. My Christmas gift to you: this wil be at or near one dollar before you finish all your shopping and wrapping.

GLTA.

Yank

Sorry but much of your post is factually incorrect. We have a glut of nat gas in America derived from petroleum production. There are ways beyond fracking by which to drill for oil. America has actually run out of places to store nat gas, making the Sabine Pass Cheniere project very important and of strategic long term benefit. If fracking continues, nat gas will remain a by-product of petroleum and will always remain a second-tier energy source. If fracking is discontinued, access to petroleum is diminished and nat gas steps to the forefront.

The enormous impact of Hurricane Sandy raises the spectre of a revitalized EPA if Obama wins, bringing back both the global warming debate and restrictions on fracking. Both Governor Christie and Mayor Bloomberg are orating today on the G/W stump.

A restriction or cessation of fracking could send CQP into virtual orbit as the last man left standing for American energy independence. "Clean" coal is a farce and purely political ploy for votes in KY and WV. Nuclear is all but dead after the Japanese tsunami. NAT GAS is the future and hedgies know it which is why they are driving down Cheniere, Westport and other related equities on a low volume day where market manipulation costs very little.

Watch for a big rise, next week.

JMHO!

Surprising and highly disappointing share reaction to rebuilding after Hurricane Sandy. Home Depot faring quite a bit better at the market open.

Hurricane Sandy a Halloween ghoul's short play treat. Store disruptions, especially in the Duane Reade service zone, will likely heavily impact both revenues and operating costs, including repairs, clean-ups, damage and perishables spoilage including refrigerated medicines. CVS and Rite Aid are in the same or worse situation based on store concentration in the mid-Atlantic region most heavily affected. Sadly, drugstores are unlikely to benefit to any major extent in the recovery in the sense of Home Depot or Lowes.

I will not make a "misery" play and short anyone based on this event. I am thinking about a long position in HD and another buy in Walmart who has fewer impacted stores and a likely better share in recovery expenditures.

Sad scenes of devastation from this weather event. GLTA,

Yank

Best wishes to all in Hurricane Sandy's path! This is a vicious looking storm which will potentially affect 60 million Americans in a very serious way. As a former New Yorker, I have never before witnessed an evacuation of this magnitude and I applaud Bloomberg for his guts to make the unpopular call. Chris Christie deserves mention, as well, for guts and leadership, along with the Gov. of Virginia for anticipating a huge natural event of potentially enormous dimension.

I wish that the NYSE would close for the next 2 days, along with the rest of affected trading platforms in Lower Manhattan where both getting to work and getting home from work will be challenged by the closure of most mass transit on which the majority of affected commuters rely. This is not a weather event with which to trifle from the views expressed by most experts.

Good luck to all affected! Prepare and pray for your family and fellow citizens.

Yank

Wow, robb, you have actually exceeded the amount of wisdom that should be imparted in a single post. That is one huge load of content!

For management to have credibility (the C-suite, as you call it), they must take a measure of accountability for the actions they have previously taken. These are the actions that define their "watch" in leadership roles, strategy development and spending beaucoups bucks of shareholder equity to support their vision. They are ultimately accountable for the results of their actions.

Walgreens stands virtually alone among major S&P 500 companies by having a senior management team that NEVER reports on the concrete results of their actions which include acquiring DSCM, Duane Reade, clinics, home infusion (multiple deals), retail Rx acquisitions (multiple deals)... ad nauseum. DEALS, DEALS, DEALS. NO RESULTS, NO RESULTS, NO RESULTS!

There is a huge gap in credibility with all these adventures which involved $ BILLIONS in shareholder equity and which NEVER have been properly explained, validated or accounted for, IMHO. They just seem to disappear into the accounting abyss with no shareholder activist or insty investor rising up to question where all the money was spent and what did it accomplish.

Carl Icahn... "Where are you?" Shareholders could use a voice to express doubt over the efficacy of so many huge, strategic deals that have NEVER been specifically accounted for and for which little S/P appreciation has benefitted shareholders for a lengthy period of time. Meanwhile, the rewards to management have been huge, and recently converted from shares to cash in a classic case of misalignment with shareholder interests.

I'm just sayin'...

GLTA,

Yank

I enjoyed your post, robb, and all that embedded humor. I still occasionally scan the old Yahoo Finance/WAG board and note amidst all the spam a few recent customer complaints about poor service and lack of help. As was always prior practice, any and all complaints are met with derision and contempt by Walgreens employees that continue to populate that board. If the people that work at Walgreens have so little regard for customer complaints, I know plenty of other places that WILL care and react...

GLTA,

Yank

Hi, milo. You are dead on about the similarities between Albertson's and Walmart in the pre-Duke WMT years. Walmart did a lot of foolish things and shareholders paid a steep price for poorly managed expansion and adventures (like in Germany) that were not well strategized. I have my PHD in Walmart which is my largest holding by a wide margin. My average cost just exceeded $40 per share with the last buy I did, but I bought most of it back in the low $30's awhile back. I have been adding for over 10 years and my divvy yeild is excellent in today's climate.

The difference is that Walmart announced slowing retail growth and actually did so. Walgreens announced slowing new store growth, then did the same thing a different way by acquiring every swinging "d" they could find.

I am intrigued by the Alliance Boots deal. I think it could represent an extreme value and is possibly something I would commit a big chunk of cash to purchase. I am not certain that KKR may not be a better play than WAG by which to reap the outcome. I am following this for all the reasons you correctly note. But I do fear the similarities with Albertson's that are now sinking SVU who allowed a renegade board to ruin a fabulous company.

By the way, Publix SUCKS as a grocer. They have prospered only because Winn-Dixie and Kash & Karry sucked worse and Albertson's closed down, leaving crumby stores as the survivor in many markets. Have you ever cruised the meat aisle at Publix? You can't even buy a lamb chop or a decent steak at a fair price.

GLTA,

Yank

I certainly share your view on Best Buy. I think they took the Geek Squad concept a little too far; for an interesting comparison, try visiting an Apple retail store if you have one in your area. Their people are highly knowledgable and very well trained, without coming across as technofreaks. Ditto for Radio Shack, as well.

I actually think that Walmart has come a long way under Mike Duke. Their assortment strategy is much improved, as has their in-stock position. I actually shopped there for a flat screen television earlier in the week and found their sales assistance surprisingly solid and most helpful. Unlike your findings, I find Walmart's staffing model to be very insufficient. This stems from their total movement to a computer-driven labor scheduler called "Scorecard" with no human input at store level. For years the peaks at the register frontend were addressed by the Assistant Managers pitching in, something that has gone away as the number of A/M's has been reduced leaving no safety net for congestion at the check-outs.

Most of the Walgreens in my market are better than your experience. Far from perfect, but quite a bit better than CVS and a ton better than Rite Aid. My big issue with Walgreens is inflated pricing vs. Walmart on staples like shampoo, toothpaste and razor blades.

GLTA,

Yank

I think matters change when someone takes an equity that normally trades <7M shares per day and, with no news except a PR piece from a competitor, >32M shares trade in the morning session, driving the share price down around 7%. Is there linkage? I can't say for sure, but I smell a hedgie in cohoots with a sugar daddy.