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1977,
I question the prior statement of yours about big money view of this company's history.
Big money should be evaluating current management and history only of current management in my opinion. I can understand that a short unfulfilled history under current management might not carry much weight except as speculation and being placed under watch.
What are you willing to say about the company that is not known in the public realm?
I don't believe anybody can refute the position that current management is scum if company is not actually on track to succeed and timely succeed.
Throwing big numbers around only emphasizes scummy qualities if company status is falsely being represented.
sam
I am an eternal optimist, if these are honorable scouts got to be 51% chance that all kinds of giant obstacles will be overcome.
sam
Doc,
I still don't see where you come up with a very slender thread leading to success.
If management is filled with honor scouts who are pumping, it seems fair to conclude at least 51% chance of success which is a not so slender thread.
sam
I saw a target price of $4 for now but could with a year or two be much higher. I don't know with seismic results soon how much faith on just seismic.
sam
You might be right about the order of events but management is pumping. Either management is scum or management believes they will be successful in terms of profitable by Christmas.
Is there really a middle ground?
sam
Good post. I like this speculation. The only question I have is how much to like.
sam
As far as I know, nobody has a serious problem with management. That is the big plus.
The other side of the coin is I think professionals know there are many promising looking tiny companies in the medical field.
They know most will not live up to the rosiest scenarios.
The marketcap on this company is not particularly cheap either. To push the company marketcap towards the billion dollar range requires I think a signal event. The question is what. Signing of distribution agreements, announcements on current study or further progress on other products. I don't know but I think the big boys are probably waiting.
sam
cytocore/buy out,
Here is the debate,
The good doc makes more money with higher buyout price.
Reason for lower price umpteen million is enough for the good doc, why double the umpteen?
Reason for higher price is if doc is ethical and believes worth more ...
sam
prvbwealth,
One reason most talk on the boards is about lead product is it looks closer to reality. Timeline makes a difference regarding speculation. Maybe the smartest investors are looking harder and liking the following products, but I don't know.
800,000 per month (not shift is the word in press release).
If $6 per still less than $5 million per month revenue, less than $60 million per year.
If lower end estimate of $150 million potential market: then is the supposition of management one of taking a reasoned chance that we can sell $50 million over next 12 months and will wait to see if demand proves out before expanding.
Another possibility is they fully expect to continue expansion plans towards end of year.
From a conservative view $50 million revenue next 12 months which means $1 to $2 may be a fair value for 12 months goal and towards the end of 12 months hopefully lots of good stuff on expansion of product line and pipeline to push stock higher thereafter.
Maybe $5, $10, $20 etc. could happen in 2008 or 2009 but why see this potential multibagger as being immune from the uncertainties that come with.
sam
Sounds like good news to my ears that it was not a buy. A healthy company should never buy interest in what is supposed to be a big inferior.
sam
I think basically 2 theories with a starting point in the past of problems:
a) company is improving, making significant progress
or
b) company is still struggling
sam
prvbwealth,
How about explaining what I googled which showed the company bought 10% of diamics? I don't know the whole story but why would a far superior company buy 10% of an inferior company?
sam
janice shell,
You are known as looking for scams. Are you suspecting something here?
sam
We are pleased to have settled this quarter with Diamics, Inc., and to have finished the majority of the arbitration litigation and associated expenses against the former Chairman and CEO of the Company, Peter Gombrich. We expect to substantially reduce our future legal expenses with the addition of Mr. Edward Renner as Vice President of Regulatory and Legal Affairs.
Above from 6/12/2006 release.
I am not happy that press releases don't say anything about competition. At least I am not aware. Competition may not be significant but I would like properly covered.
Also
CytoCore Announces Purchasing a Contract for an Undiluted Interest in Diamics, Inc.
Source: Business Wire
Publication Date: 24-FEB-06
CytoCore Announces Purchasing a Contract for an Undiluted Interest in Diamics, Inc.
COPYRIGHT 2006 Business Wire
CHICAGO -- CytoCore, Inc. (OTCBB: MCDG.OB) today announced that it had entered into an agreement to purchase a contract from a private individual giving the holder the right to receive a ten (10%) percent undiluted interest in Diamics, a privately held California company founded by Peter Gombrich, former CEO...
sam
Schadenfreude,
I closed rest of my position at the close. The red flag bothers me but the big Indian deal looks very good legit-wise on surface , so re-entry is a definite possibility. I appreciate any help though on separating good companies from bad, especially when related to China. In my opinion China related OTC is credibility wise half way between pinksheets and non-china otc.
sam
Schadenfreude,
I don't have a handle on what to expect for total shares down the road. Currently less than 79 million according to yahoo statistics.
200 million sound like a reasonable guess? The business seems reputable and sound.
If I am reading right at revenue maybe of 4m/mw and if can do 130 mw in 2009, 520 million dollars on 200 million shares would be revenue per share $2.60 makes what kind of fair price today per share?
sam
austin, tx would love the roulette players to pile on
sam
$1.50 to $2.00 looks right to me, but the market can always surprise, if there is a big drop, buying opportunity
sam
What guess for 2008 revenue for just this one deal?
sam
Sneaky,
Fundamentally is this stock cheap? Hard to know when this company will reach 100,000 vodka per qtr.
At 100,000 and other stuff selling stretched to annualized would be perhaps $50 million revenue. $25 million gross margin. Maybe $10 million for costs not including Trump's cut and we are down to $15 million. After Trump down to $9 million perhaps. After tax (whenever it hits) down to $6 million on over 80 million shares.
Lots of growth needed, growth over 100,000 per qtr will drop quickly towards bottom line.
sam
I also think amar.ob is worth a look
sam
SOEN.OB is worth a fast look
sam
Took me a minute to figure your post but discerning money knows the difference between a full penny and rounding to a penny. In your example the rounded one penny is only 2 cents annualized. If that was rewarded a lowly 50 pe, could be $1.00 after next quarter but that would be short-sighted because I would expect if revenue growth approaches something like 30%/qtr net income growth could be 50% qtr.
Do you think the company can avg increase revenue per qtr 30% for next 1 1/2 years?
sam
Actually I think of net income as staying low because of Trump's cut until I am not sure when since I don't know when roughly 50% of net will not be parcelled out.
To make 1 cent if Trump takes 50% requires $1.58 million income after other costs.
sam
The fundamental question would be by 2008 any guesses to outstanding fully diluted count?
sam
If by November 2008 annualized 400K plus, I suggest $7-8 stock price about that timeframe not as nice as in 2007 but a winner.
sam
One can pick any numbers as a guess for costs which leads to earnings guess.
If company earns next quarter of one penny and shows 30% revenue growth per qtr then:
One evaluation method would be annualized 4 cents earnings with a pe of 100 = $4.00. $2.00 price would be believable too.
Basically if one is comfortable there is growth, the big question is evaluating the cost. I guess the questions could be seen as how to rate management and how easy to expand production.
For the time being I consider management probably a grade B. How easy to expand production, I have no idea.
sam
Here's to a profitable year, take a swig of Trump Vodka if you wish
sam
Best to all of us prvbwealth
sam
Prvbwealth/ot,
Are you interested in applying your diagnostic skills to a small cap medical I have started looking at?
sam
Hexonx plz see my previous post.
I see you follow the rawnoc world of stocks.
sam
Just read an unsolicited stewart report and have been looking at this.
I believe I read that both Turks and Taiwanese are funding their respective studies completely. Is completely right?
Regardless of the other studies, if first two are true and the big Japanese company is still all behind this also, seems like a very puny marketcap.
I can understand if years of slow progress has been discouraging. However am I missing negatives or seeing things too positive?
sam
thanks netman eom
Questions:
What revenue per month would be break even? Is $185,000 per month perhaps leveling off, any feel for?
I am sure people are betting on francise profitability. If one used Dave and Busters as a rough comparison, what would be guesses for future franchise story? I think to compare, one would have to know average profitability per dave and buster's restaurant.
sam
finkployd,
I read the accusations. I appreciate the digging.
When you say shady, is the large list of organizations under Taub referred to in site as being significant for you in your description of shady?
Besides that I am not a scientist and I attended no trials in Albuquerque and more presentations of a negative nature independent of the UNM dispute would be necessary to be objective.
Also even if Taub is best described as "mixed", I don't see evidence presented as to how the full Cytocore team can be seen as more shady than any other group of scientists.
They may be a shady group. I don't know them. I am not detecting on the surface a bad odor though.
I will say though I am a believer that the scientific/medical community is far from purely independently objective.
sam
Given the unreliability of diagnostics in general, and the fact that Pap smear slides are read by lab technicians for a matter of seconds, this seemed a perfectly reasonable request. She refused, however, imploring me to "stop being in denial," and acquiesced only after I politely but unrelentingly insisted. Holding my own was emotionally exhausting, and in the end it felt more as if she were humoring me than respecting my judgment.
The second Pap came back grade 2, a slightly less concerning level of diagnosis. According to my doctor, this suggested the presence of Human Papilloma Virus or HPV, a supposedly contagious condition associated with cervical cancer. Since I have never been diagnosed with a sexually transmitted disease, my husband's never had one, we've been together for six years, and all my previous Paps have been normal, I questioned the new results. My skepticism seemed to reinforce her notions I was lolling in denial. Our conversation turned contentious.
I cited information refuting the HPV/cervical cancer hypothesis, Professor Peter Duesberg's well-referenced deconstruction in particular. I recalled how the assumption that HPV caused cervical cancer had risen to popularity in the late 1970s following the complete failure of the Herpes Virus/cervical cancer hypothesis of the 1960s. That according to studies, half the American adult population is infected with HPV yet only 1 percent of women develop the cancer, and while equal numbers of men and women have HPV, men rarely develop penile cancers.
Actually I have made no estimate on the overall potential.
If one took the mid-range of $150 to $450 million, that leaves $300 million.
I believe 70 percent profit margin would be a modest estimate on that $210 million.
Tax and other expenses leaves a conservative $110 million estimate.
$110/300 mil os 36 cents plus earnings
Due to pipeline a very conservative pe would be 20.
$7.20 seems reachable and is enough speculation.
That is approximately 20 times current price.
From being bought out standpoint, I think $5 to $10 could be a very probable scenario. If there is not a buyout done by early next year, positive developing news could up the ante.
So really the initial potential I think is the way to look at things and the risk is the most meaningful topic. If risk is small, this is a screaming buy.
The moderate slip in schedule of when 2007 production hopefully happens is motivation for judging the risk to be more significant but still I would say 75 cents makes more sense to me for a current price.
sam
Prvbwealth,
What is your thinking on upper end of potential world-wide market of $450 million?
Seems like with 180 million pap tests per year that if charging $5 to wholesalers upper end of world wide market potential would be $900 million.
Of course the question is does the company mean market potential or future revenue estimate which should be less than market potential?
sam
Prvbwealth,
That is my understanding what you said about potential but not all products should be assumed to be equally likely to succeed.
Maybe there is an overwhelmingly high chance of success for several products, but if that is the case more focus needs to be placed there to make it evident.
Just maybe it could all be sifted through in existing info, but e2 collector has been the focal point for me.
sam
My assumption is currently the highest confidence factor should be for the e2 collector and rest of pipeline is more speculative and should have less influence as to current value.
sam