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I think your said before your in real estate industry. Any place you know where one can get online stats of number of houses for sale. When people really lose faith in equities and then pull up last stake of their net worth like putting house on market would signal real capitulaiton IMO.
I would expect sharp rise in homes for sale even before average selling price data showing price decreases comes out from house closing data months later.
What does the CEO of Alcoa Aluminum and bible thumper political hack know about Homeland defense and how to staff and fund it. You guys have not a clue how screwed we are.
Reagen years "defeat communism" deficit economic spending made some sense to the market. This scatterbrain hand out lollipops to rich cronies approach hard to phatom IMO.
Bush Team Presses for Homeland Dept.
By JIM ABRAMS
Associated Press Writer
WASHINGTON (AP) — Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill asked a special House committee Thursday not to let resistance to change block creation of the Homeland Defense Department that President Bush wants.
``We cannot respond to the terrorist threats simply by pledging more cooperation or making marginal changes,'' O'Neill told the first hearing of the House Committee on Homeland Security. ``We must be willing to make a dramatic transformation in light of the dramatic threats we face.''
O'Neill was one of four of the president's Cabinet secretaries testifying before the special committee, which next week is to piece together the administration's proposal and lawmakers' ideas into one bill.
``Working together with the other agencies charged with U.S. national security, we will accomplish our common goal of ensuring the security of the American people, our territory and our sovereignty,'' Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, his arm in a cast after a thumb operation, told the panel.
Outside the committee room, Rumsfeld told reporters the administration is not worried about changes to the president's planned recommended by some House committees.
``It seems to me we're a good distance yet from a conclusion,'' Rumsfeld said. ``Anything that's this substantial ... will take a good deal of discussion.''
Attorney General John Ashcroft assured the committee that the CIA and FBI, which under Bush's proposal would not be part of the new security agency, would fully share the intelligence they gather. ``For the first time, America will have under one roof the capacity for government to work together to identify and assess threats to our homeland,'' he said.
Ashcroft also said the Immigration and Naturalization Service should be moved intact into the new agency, not split between the Justice Department and the new department as one House panel has recommended.
``I believe that it's very important that they be connected, because there are frequently overlaps,'' Ashcroft said of the agency's dual responsibilities to enforce immigration law and to serve immigrants. ``I believe that is best undertaken if you don't have these two functions in different Cabinet agencies.''
Secretary of State Colin Powell, despite an investigation in his department of visas being obtained through alleged bribes, resisted calls from some lawmakers to switch that function to the new Homeland Security Department.
``We have the experience, the training, the language skills and the dedicated people to perform this mission,'' Powell said. But he endorsed the idea of having the new department ``determine who can and cannot enter the United States.''
House Majority Leader Dick Armey, R-Texas, who heads the special panel, said it would work out the final details of the House vision of the Homeland Security Department after about a dozen House committees this week complete action on their pieces of the legislative puzzle.
On Wednesday, five House committees approved portions of the bill affecting agencies under their jurisdictions. Most endorsed the outline Bush set down June 6, although there was some tinkering.
The Judiciary Committee voted to keep most of the Federal Emergency Management Agency as an independent disaster response agency and to move the Secret Service from the Treasury Department to the Justice Department rather than into the new Homeland Security Department.
That panel also decided to move the enforcement arm of the Immigration and Naturalization Service into the security agency but leave other immigration services with Justice.
On Thursday, four more committees will vote on the proposal, with one focus being how the Transportation Committee handles the Coast Guard. The president would incorporate the Coast Guard in the new department, but some lawmakers say that could diminish its non-security functions such as search-and-rescue missions.
Five former Coast Guard commandants sent a letter to House Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Ill., Wednesday supporting the president's plan and saying the Coast Guard must remain intact if it is to continue to fulfill its traditional missions.
The Senate is expected to act on its version this month as well, with the goal of sending the president a bill in September.
``It is crucial we take this historic step,'' White House homeland security adviser Tom Ridge told the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee on Wednesday. The new department is to handle security functions now spread among more than 100 agencies with budgets totaling $37 billion. Bush wants the new department running by Jan. 1.
One big issue Wednesday was what agency should handle the 10 million visa applications every year that come in now. House Judiciary Committee Chairman James Sensenbrenner, R-Wis., tried to move all visa operations from the State Department to the new agency, saying State ``has repeatedly proven that it is the wrong agency to exercise power to grant visas.''
But in an 18-15 vote, the committee accepted a proposal by House International Relations Committee Chairman Henry Hyde, R-Ill., that is in line with the president's plan: It would leave consular activities at State but give the new department power to train consular officials and review visa applications with security questions.
any ideas why trinq at 0.34 today while 175 M share bolus of crap WCOME is in down column. Subtracting WCOME that would make trinq somewhere under 0.2???
Makes no sense but there's got to be some explaination.
Zeev:
As I tell my customers. It's the world turned upside down. Keep your chin up if you are execting short covering rallies. I don't see much life until value appears. Sort of a cold realization of the stark reality described previously by George Cole.
AGM
Ah alas banks. Banks got to scream uncle before this decline is over.
That means another 50-70% on the down side.
KRB at 30 now goes to 15
JPM at 30 now goes to 12
AGM single digits.
BKX index 400-500 before support takes hold.
PS you had worst part of nassacre was later. I think is is accelerating and coming up now and deeper.
How are we supposed to correct weak dollar when the whole world doesn't trust us from the top down. Don't look for quick fixes for market, just 10,000 guys like Zeev, stocktechie and yourself pushing awat and day trades. Net result at end of down is down as more LTBH cash out.
I think mistrust of US leadership and possible criminal wrongdoing by VP are not political issue but real economic reality to be factored in.
from ap wire
Bush Got Loans He Now Seeks to End
By PETE YOST
Associated Press Writer
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Bush received low-interest loans totaling $180,375 in the 1980s from a Texas oil company where he was a director, a practice he asked companies to end as part of his proposal to discourage corporate wrongdoing.
The loans, which Bush used to buy stock in Harken Energy Corp., carried a 5 percent annual interest rate, according to company records filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Harken didn't require Bush to repay the principal for eight years.
On Tuesday, Bush told a Wall Street audience he wanted to halt such deals. ``I challenge compensation committees to put an end to all company loans to corporate officers,' he said.
Bush didn't profit from the loans, White House spokesman Dan Bartlett said. Bush eventually retired the debt by trading 105,000 Harken shares being held as collateral, and in return, received options for 42,503 shares that he never exercised, Bartlett said.
Bartlett said the loans were totally appropriate, that such deals were a common practice to encourage investment but ``recently have been abused by companies providing billions of dollars to their CEOs without much accountability at all.'
The loans were for $96,000 in 1986 for 80,000 of the company's shares, and $84,375 in 1989 for 25,000 shares, according to Harken records filed with the SEC.
Bush's business dealings as a Harken director have dogged him for years and generated fresh interest as corporate scandals mount. Bush has talked about creating a new climate of ethical behavior as worried investors sell and stock prices plunge.
Bush was a member of Harken's board when it reported a profit on the company-financed sale of a subsidiary to a group of Harken insiders. The SEC forced the company to amend its books to reflect millions of dollars in losses that had been hidden by the accounting practice.
Bush was the subject of a separate insider stock trade investigation. The SEC took no action against Bush in that inquiry.
The SEC has released some records on its insider trading probe of Bush, but has withheld others. The White House is declining to authorize the SEC to release all documents from the investigation of Bush.
I added shorts on UVN and KRB today but went long MIR.
Turnip tune up needed
That would be cow manure, bone meal or blood meal if your truly a organic farmer. <g>
The only problem is that recipe requires grinding up the bulls from head to tail.
I will not baghold under 36.
35 could go to 28 real quick.
Ouuuuu but the lure of those option premiums
:)______
Internet drool <g>
This money coming out is coming out of "safe" stocks like drugs and utilities. Market makers just dumping what people are sellling regardless of price. Strikes me of capitulation but more to come until fundementals change.
They are complex political, economic, monetary and psychological ones.
Someone posted dollar chart from 70's on last night. You could see Nixon, Ford, Carter down line post Watergate. Then up and down during Reagen years. Continued down all during under Bush Sr years. It rocketed in 1995 after slow start under Clinton and just peaked recently under GWB.
Economic and monetary leadership form the administration is more important to market confidence then any dam bin laden guy.
To play these markets now a days it couldn't possibly hurt to be dutiful to your religon
Futures got that starting to look same way every day. unchanged AH, dead as a cold fish, followed by relentless mutual fund redemptions all day long. I think George Cole has mentioned the fact that utilities as well as drugs, both safe havens, have been sold off with nary a trace of, ubitquious as the air we breathe, sector rotation in last few days.
Had to. He needs that foot to press sell order buttom on computer <g>
PS with the market the way it is he is praying at same time.
Steve:
Has the perception that market is rotten in America and there is no reason to return unless things are reformed. I see many more of these down days intersperced with wicked 2 hr up streaks that are unsustainable.
The PPT blew its wad on WCOM last week and nothing left in tank to deal with Qwest news today. We are in free fall and there is no safety net below us. Surely, Dick, $25 M option man, Cheney is not the source of reform he is the actually the poster child for stock market CEO corruption.
Funds and foreign dollar holders have left the market not to return unless market becomes sure thing at cash book value.
Naz day traders determined the way Naz momo stocks behaved yesterday and today. No one is leaving any money on the table at eod so we are almost guaranteed new LOD every day until some sense of stability or value is acheived. Like I said, factors that lead to stability have left the house only other force is net value.
Still bagholding QLGC, for a hopeful bounce tomorrow. Some at 38.35 and 37.35.
I got short Calls @40 and 35 and short PUT @ 35
I need to know if you can hold your bag so I will buy back my Calls @ 35. If you drop your bag while stock goes below 35, I got to decide to roll over short PUT to AUG or buy back or write AUG 35 calls depending on how nasty Nasty can be.
I wrote NVDA AUG 15 PUTs and ZRAN AUG 17.5 PUTs after SSB upgrade
I got about 80 long PUTs to sell and need 40 more short PUT to combo to get to neutral on options.
Then I think about going long
It been fun the last 3 days.
Watch out we got another day or two of grinding down. I Wrote short puts AUG 12.5 SNDK, Cree AUG 12.5, and ADRX AUG 20
I still all my short CALL and long PUTs and down see a need to become too bullish right now.
I haven'tb closed any shorts calls but wrote short PUTs on ADRX and CREE. I will add CMCSK & CCMP short PUTs if they give me a discount as you say.
This is day 2 where S&P with bigger percentage dropthen NDX. Money is leaving in droves. It not index rebalancing IMO.
Wre we bottom I don't know.
PS But I am getting ready to hedge 2:30 PM???
You will learn pretty soon my well runs dry quickly.
I agree (at 49 here).
I promise you not to short your stocks if you promise not to sell equity stake out<g>
Sold 1/3 aliquot of QLGC PUTs AUG 35 for $3.50. There got to be bottom somewhere out there.
George
Have you ever seen a day where SPX down greater percentage then NDX. Money is leaving market in huge piles IMO.
The large cap names are getting wacked today
Just a smattering of names down over $1 today.
HD MEK AIG FNM AMGN
Larry
He will be back. I got a gut feeling
Regulate hedge funds and hold short sellers to some higher standard. I am just thinking out loud here
When in the boom years, for every $8 invested by LTBHers resulted in only $1 of market appreciation no one complained. Now that people are pulling the plug on some of their investments. you say no you can't do that because it will make the market go down further.
I tell you I am 46 years old and I have been playing the short side extensively until I need the money for my retirement. I say that because in the early 70's I was that young kid who had a hard time finding a part time job during the high unemployment recession years. There were so many millions and millions of baby boomers ahead of me competing for the limited number of low paying part time jobs that where available. I live though several years of my teenage with this crappy situation and I am think I figured out how the baby boomer population who is growing older and getting ready for retirement is going to effect me in the future RE equity investments.
I see no great upside for the market unless some great new captive audience of investors somewhere in the world who are willing to let their entire nest egg accumulate in US equities again. Ity may take 3 years, 5 years, 10 years hell 20 years. All I know is net outflows of funds are here to stay for a while.
denigrating posts
You have had your share of well documented problems on SI. What can one do if univeral dissapproval from thread participants doesn't stop the attacks. Some people think that they are virtually anonomyous from the garbage they post.
With only 2 up days before resuming down trend as the norm, if one wants to be bullish for medium term by writing PUTs one has to look for percieved absolute ST bottom for stock and then pick strike price below where stock traded.
I only get this "bullish" because if I already have short calls in place going to zero, so short PUT usually only adds additional maintenance requirment of the PUT option premium. So if I write sub $1 short PUT, I have to have some idea that has a low probability of going to $2-3 if one is looking for limited fixed return.
Ususally I close short PUTS when about 50% of premium is earned and wait for next big selloff which could be today <g>
I would love to believe that someone would quash every contray opinion writer who has ever replied to some of my more provactive posts.
However, if one is paying for lifetime membership, it becomes hard for admins to bounce people for "personal" attacks. I had one guy on SI thought should have been bounced without a doubt but all he got was suspended twice for a couple of days each.
I got a need to write short PUTs on QLGC to hedge short Calls on QLGC. Where does the falling knive hit the ground. I would be couragous to write AUG 35 PUT but I am a real chicken s___ on the long side. Do you see sub $35 before JUL options expiry so I could scalp some AUG 30 PUTS.
Market's overcoat looks pretty threadbare this afternoon. I guess technical bounce not in cards for today. eh.
trading technical bounces
I got flat fee for virtually unlimitted trading.
I only trade options, mostly short, to keep 3X portfolio value limit for cheap flat fee from being exceeded. I still go through broker so I hold posiitons for a few days and as long as optionss expiry hoping for zero cost on short sale.
I still haven't found a way to trade like Zeev.
Terra del Fuego.
Is that where they junked my my old Renault POS. <g>
Please explain is that Argentina
Biggest problem I see and that will continue to plague market is the outflow of funds. Last week it was $13.5 B. Funds have no other choice to sell and sell and sell day in day out. No technical chart analysis is going to allow for nothing more then short shallow technical bounces.
I guess President is done speaking. The market selling off again. I wonder of he said "smoke em out" referring to corrept CEO's likie Kenny boy. Some how I doubt it.
I can't see how much more they can pound market down. We got NYSE tick of 900+ and Trinq of 1.3 including WCOME's 110 M share down volume. Things not as bad as they seem but earnings picture fugly.
I think we are close to ST bottom of trading range with bias to continued down as we have been for 3 months now.
Playing upside by holding for more then 1 day is still extrememly risky IMO.
Out of "greedy" respect for GWB the market will be on uptick while President speaks in downtown NYC. Look for decline to resume after he done talking and hitailing back to DC.
I found that the indices P/C ratio does not have much predictive value.
I think only thing I decern is from P/C ratios is not the absolute value intraday but the fact that it changes. The changes it indicates a change in investor sentiment like a change in sign of a derivative of an equation.
S&P chart crystal clear never more then 2 up days in a row since 3/27. Until we get 3 days up in a row, you can be a short with impunity IMO. Today was going to be 3rd day.
Resume writers rate of increase of posting resumes declining rapidly on DOL web site.
In the last 4 weeks, new resumes are showing up at 1374 per day down from 2344 per day over previous 4 week period.
I am going to personally declare worst of UI crisis over if we keep this up for another 2 weeks without any post July 4 upticks
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