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Walgreens jumped through hoops, as I heard it, to hire Kim Feil away from Sara Lee Foods to become Chief Marketing Officer. She had a strong Marketing and Strategic Planning resume that included senior roles at Kimberly Clark and several retail fastfood multi-nationals. She, IMHO, did a first rate job at moving Walgreens out of the garbage & gimmick retail advertising mode it had been rutted in... "mail-in rebates", what a SCAM... and actually moved Walgreens into a classier merchandising posture that enhanced the overall brand. I thought she did a really good job, from what I saw.
Wasson dumped Feil for Joseph Magnacca who came from the Duane Reade pedigree, appropriate (dog) play on words fully intended.
Kim Feil is now the Chief Marketing Officer at Office Max and I doubt would return to Walgreens. What a loss of talent, only to have no talent left at all.
GLTA,
Yank
Arcane action in the Walgreens Deerfield C suite! Joseph Magnacca is promoted to Executive Vice President in an announcement made by Greg Wasson on February 1st. Such a move must have been in the works for some time, obviously with Magnacca's knowledge and assent over details like compensation. Senior appointments like this are just not doled out casually.
Less than a week later, Magnacca announces he is leaving Walgreens to become CEO at Radio Shack, a very troubled retailer with highly questionable survivability. This is all very strange. I once was offered a significant promotion, knew I was resigning in a few weeks and came up with a plausible reason for turning it down. When I later resigned, I explained that I did not want to embarass the company or create confusion by accepting a new role and then pulling a 180, shortly thereafter. My company was extremely grateful for how I handled it, and I remain on great terms with their leadership, to this day.
Walgreens would have every reason to be furious over the lack of class Magnacca's action exhibits. It is a slap in Wasson's face and an embarassment to the entire Deerfield inner circle, IMHO. Anyone who would employ such slimeball tactics is an executive worth losing, and Walgreens will be better off replacing this guy with a person, male or female, with higher ethical standards. It is sad that Walgreens had a highly competent woman heading Marketing who did an exceptional job reinventing their ad strategy and promotional portfolio, only to replace her with this dirtbag. Maybe she remains available!
GLTA,
Yank
Looks like Radio Shack will be adding Delish Choco-Chip Cookies and sushi to an enhanced menu of over-priced cellphones, non-digital TV roof antennas and obsolete electronic conveniences like 8-track tape players, Atari "Pong" sets and transistor radios from Japan.
Good luck, Joe. Your track record transforming Duane Reade stores to Walgreens stores speaks volumes...
Thpppppppppp!
Yank
Further CVS update... strong guidance for 2013, modest growth for retail, 11-14% growth for PBM. Generic impact anticipated to negatively impact pharmacy revenue by 1.1% but boost margins for the year. Conflict with CMS (see link I posted yesterday) negatively affecting Medicare Part D business.
Lots of interesting detail in FY12 slideshow put on CVS website concurrent with C/C, especially the breakout on Minute Clinics whose revenue rose 38% in Q4. 41 new clinics opened in 2012, 150 additional opening in FY13. Would be appropriate to see this type of detail from Walgreens.
In Q&A, UBS analyst specificlly asked about 2013 impact of retaining Walgreens/ESRX clients which Merlo affirmed was expected to remain 60% without additional marketing or promotional cost.
CVS market share in retail pharma rose for the year measured by Rx count. They also purchased a 44 store retail pharmacy chain in Brazil which I must have missed the PR on.
$5 billion spent on divies and share buybacks in 2012, a similar amount planned for 2013.
I may be a buyer, here. Liked what I heard.
CVS C/C update: Merlo just stated a 60% retention rate of clients from the Walgreens/ESRX dispute. He also commented on the positive impact the new clients had on front end sales. His expectation is that CVS will permanently retain that 60%, going forward.
Yank
Strong numbers posted by CVS this morning. S/S Rx and frontend revenue up equally. The $.91/share earnings beat expectations and included a $.17/share charge for early retirement of debt fees in Q4/12 which propels metrics in subsequent quarters.
Be sure to take a look at the Mail Choice results... up 14.6%, now exceeding 20 million Rx's per quarter. Pair this with the 90 day biz which CVS reports as a single Rx (WAG reports it as 3) and the retail CVS numbers are quite remarkable.
No mention of retention of WAG/ESRX clients in the PR. I will listen to the C/C which starts in 20 minutes.
GLTA,
Yank
Looks to me like the momentum is on the upside, right up through earnings. The strong flu season drives decent margins, especially on vaccinations, and most of the aftercare remedies where retail margins tend to be higher. The Express Scripts Rx recovery gift cards should drive February revenue and that month's numbers, a month or so from today's January release.
The real profit impact on recovering lost ESRX Rx's likely will not be felt until Q3 results are anounced, another 90 days out, in the eventual income statement. There is a good short term trade, here.
I remain skeptical of the numbers starting Q3.
GLTA,
Yank
robb, I am so many years removed from Managerial Accounting class in college that I would never qualify as an expert on gift cards. My rough understanding is that GAAP have closed much of the variability in treating revenues from gift cards and the expenses innured from a customer cashing one in: both are credited to sales and expensed to COGS in the accounting period where the consumer redeemed a card for the purchase of goods/services. I believe that the major remaining gray area is how to treat uncashed giftcards, the "breakage" if you will. I think this is now in a state by state limbo where Consumer Protection Laws vary greatly depending on where you live. Again, I am no expert.
The good news is that if Walgreens lured significant Express Scripts Rx's back from other retail pharmacies in January using a $25 Gift Card as an incentive, only the revenue from the new Rx is reported for January's revenue. When the gift card is cashed in, say in February, both the $25 in additional revenue and the expense for it will go on the books.
The Gift Card incentive is a sound marketing tool. I can tell you that Verizon is presently offering a $300 Gift Card to Fios subscribers willing to change over from Infinity or other cable providers. Now THERE'S an expense to deal with at a later date!
I personally detest this type of gimmick, like mail-order rebates, but it is what it is... a high-cost promo that is easily copied by competition, usually is, and typically just degrades an entire industry's profitability when it becomes the norm.
We will see, over time.
GLTA,
Yank
There is an apparent dichotomy in the January numbers; some look really good, some seem contra-indicative to a spike in sales. I do think PC's point on recovery from Rite Aid is correct since the RAD shopping experience delivers much less than at either Walgreens or CVS, or even Walmart or Costco. The RAD Jan figures were tepid or anemic, if you prefer.
Part of the WAG January numbers are based on dollars, part are based on customer and Rx count. I am not going to attempt to break it all down since I would have to guess on some of it, but I will share my opinion on why the pharmacy numbers seem so high.
First, the flu shot counts as an Rx filled. A flu shot at $29.99 looks huge compared to an $8 Rx for Amoxycillin. Lots of flu shots = lots of pharmacy revenue. By the way, kudos to Walgreens for aggressively pursuing this business because the impact is obviously huge.
Second, the recovery of script volume from ESRX clients does not come without a price. All those $25 gift cards get charged off as expense items in the month they are redeemed. I believe that in WAG's accounting system such expenses are charged to SGA, though I would not bet my life on it. In any event, what seems really good news in the January comps may look more indigestable in the next Q's income statement.
All things considered, The January numbers were very solid, perhaps unexpectedly so, and the S/P action today confirms that this is the street view.
GLTA,
Yank
Nice improvement in January sales numbers. Not surprising when you note a 1.4 million increaes in flu shots for the month.
There is another 90 days left in this flu season. Could show signs of strength for the next quarter as vaccinations give way to remedies, tissues and pain relievers.
GLTA,
Yank
Interesting stuff on reimbursement pressure and the future of Medicare and Medicaid: www.cms.gov
This message board is at risk of extinction... messages with no Terms of Service infractions being conveniently deleted by someone with an agenda which does not include investment discussion, just being long Walgreens stock. Totally reminiscent of the histrionics that sank the Yahoo Finance Walgreens Message Board.
CVS earnings, tomorrrow. The most interesting aspect to the conference call will be the guidance on Caremark's prospects during PBM contract season which will potentially have huge impact on Walgreens in the post-ESRX era. I am expecting an aggressive posture from Merlo.
GLTA,
Yank
GLTA.
Yank
robb,
I think that you about nailed it!
LOL.
Yank
I look for a big pick-up after Obama's State of the Union Address and the seemingly inevitable plug for nat gas and energy independence/export. The Inaugural Address set the stage.
Broke $40, but on restrained volume. My guess is a positive reaction to the Duane Reade "sushi" piece on The Today Show on NBC, earlier today. Why the inquisitive reporter even intercepted Jim Cramer who was serendipitously shopping in the Wall Street Walgreens at the time of her "unannounced" visit. What a total coincidence. Yeah, right!
This kind of "media moment" makes me want to throw up.
Utter rubbish.
How would you ever know if Alliance-Boots was a bad buy? Or a good buy? Same question applies to Clinics, Home Infusion, drugstore.com, Duane Reade or numerous other blockbuster deals that all quietly disappeared in the abyss of anonymity and utter avoidance of WAG management accountability.
The only Walgreens exec that ever "faced the music" was Jeff Rein when he butchered the Longs Drug deal and the reimbursement showdown with Tom Ryan @ CVS, thoroughly trashing the WAG S/P.
Without that lone exception, Walgreens has ceased sharing results of major and expensive strategic actions undertaken with enormous amounts of shareholders equity. I know of NO other major company of this calibre and multi-$billion market cap that has avoided most any and all reference to report to shareholders and analysts the results they achieved... except when they are vague and non-specific comments like "We did it" over programs like Rewiring whose metrics just get buffed into the financial statements.
To me, it's a little like the old "Conglomerate Scam" where all those daring entrepreneurs like Chainsaw Al Dunlop, Hank Koslowski, Bill Farley, ad nauseum kept buying up crap so the numbers could never be comped or figured out untill all those bogus empires collapsed and investors fled. Remember Fruit of the Loom, Tyco, Sunbeam...?
I think there is serious question regarding the price Walgreens paid for the 1st 45% of A-B and even more potentially serious questions that may be asked if they go forward with buying the rest. But since this is the new Walgreens, I bet those questions just get swept under the rug and anyone with the moxie to so inquire during a C/C or at a shareholders meeting will simply be avoided, cut off, banned from access to the podioum microphone or given a disingenuous, baffling response that insults the intelligence of anyone with a brain.
Why do I feel that way? Maybe because that is how Wasson and Miquelon seem to have treated anyone else that tried to ask a hard question that held them accountable for their actions. JMHO.
GLTA,
Yank
There are a LOT of green initiatives in retail that involve no extra cost, or are actually cheaper as in Walmart's pressure on vendors to reduce packaging size and utilize recycled materials. These are "win/win" victories that are environmentally responsible and actually lower the cost of goods. Another example is Walmart's use of freezer lighting systems with motion detectors which actually switch off the electric lighting when nobody is there. Walmart employs similar motion detectors to turn off lights in offices and breakrooms when they are unoccupied.
I am still expecting a B-O-D move to be made on Wasson. I would not be surprised if such a move was led by KKR and Pessina who might choose to propose new board members beyond the two plants they already have, perhaps similar to the move Gabelli made at Diebold, recently, which led to the CEO's ouster.
I worked for a very large public company where the board, in fact, took out the CEO, COO and CFO. There was ZERO advance notice that anything was in the air. All the VP's were called into the main conference room, the board was present and announced the changes... you could have heard a pin drop. There were loudly audible gasps when they revealed the bloodbath that had just occurred. The only three operating exec's that had prior warning were the corporate general counsel, Exec VP Human Resources and the IR director. It was one of the most surreal days in my entire career!
GLTA,
Yank
robb,
Wasson took some heavy shots from an analyst recently over Walgreens "green" strategy and opined that wouldn't shareholders be better served by Walgreens selling lower cost stuff in place of the enviro-friendly stuff.
I gotta side with Wasson on this one. Being environmentally responsible is good corporate citizenship for an industry leader like WAG. The EV charging stations are maybe a little over the top, but if anyone saw the nightly news report on smog in Salt Lake City tonight or has followed the sustainability challenge which even MCD came out with a response today on fish filets, our good ole Earth could use a few breaks before IT breaks.
Discussion welcome, as always. I loved that Obama highlighted the global warming issue in his Inaugural address. WAAAAAAAY overdue for some serious discussion after too many years of Silent Spring advocates bleating "Wierd Science."
GLTA,
Yank
Big news from Costco, this week, who announced they are forming their own PBM in concert with 64,000 independent pharmacies and its own in-warehouse Rx system. I am wondering if wickedone is planning to hook up with this new alternative to CVS and ESRX?
Sweetbay Markets and Hannafords intro'd a new alternative to Walgreens Prescription Savings Club program, this week, with a lowered membership fee of $7 per year vs. $45 at Walgreens for the virtually identical formulary of $4 and heavily discounted generics. The program launched in their circulars last week and the content is available on-line.
GLTA,
Yank
Omigod, milo, that sounds like an entreaty to Lindsey Lohan... "Go down, Lindsey..."
Be careful what you ask for. You could catch something besides the flu.
LOL.
Yank
WAG vs. CVS... only pertinent if Walgreens fails to complete the 2nd tranch of the Alliance-Boots acquisition.
Walgreens balance sheet remains strong, but CVS remains in fuller control of its cash flow because it heavily influences PBM reimbursements. Be wary of another ESRX-type impasse when the CVS/WAG contract comes up for renewal in this Spring, at least according to my sources.
I do not think CVS wants another war with Walgreens because they actually suffered worse than did Walgreens during a similar confrontation, a few years back. But I do believe Larry Merlo will drive a hard bargain and I doubt that Kermit has the testosterone or career "chips" to call in to risk another ESRX-type battle.
GLTA,
Yank
robb, in reply to your point/question on brand vs. generics...
I look at it this way: the principle player in the equation is the FDA. The second player in the equation is the Patent Office. The third major player in the equation is The House of Representatives who has responsibility for healthcare spending and healthcare savings. When all the major contributors are Federal Agencies and most are aligned and focused on reducing healthcare spend, and generics are SO much cheaper, is the outcome really in doubt?
I think that retail pharma like Walgreens and others are largely neutral on the issue, knowing that the good news is that the margins on generics are higher and the ticket on branded Rx's is a lot higher. WAG, historically, has aggressively supported generics so I doubt their position in the matter is likely to change. The "fly in the ointment" is pretty much limited to Walmart's aggressive price point on generics and whether or not they sustain it... which I believe they will.
GLTA,
Yank
Nice run in January. This will move up and down with nat gas inventory reports (stupid) and geo-political events (smart) until 2015 draws near. Then look out...
If you missed AAPL or AMZN at the onset, be smart and don't miss this one. JMHO.
What an honor to be on Cramer's show. He recently did a panel discussion at my alma mater, Bucknell, which was very interesting and loaded with insight. I especially like Cramer when he has Ken Langone on the broadcast... talk about telling it like it is!
Jim was very critical of WAG during the ESRX impasse and has been largely "pro" since the resolution. I would love to probe his views on healthcare reimbursements and where he see's the pressure for better Rx cost management settling... on retail pharma, PBM's or big pharma like Pfizer and Roche.
Jim follows this sector closely so his opinion would surely be insightful.
When will the segment air? I'll be sure to tune in, regardless of what questions get asked. Kudos to you for being asked to participate!
Yank
"52 week highs don't lie" but buying a range-trading stock at its historic highs adds risk to the trade. A lot of risk.
Zack's, today, came out with a "hold" recommendation on Walgreens, with a "buy" recommendation for CVS and a "strong buy" recommendation for Rite Aid. Who'd a thunk it?
Weinswig was right about JCP in the short term and I made beaucoups $$$ on a swing trade, there. She was wrong to recommend a longer term position, but that's life. I NEVER follow any analyst's rec's 100% because all of them are wrong some of the time and most are wrong more than they are right.
I bought mReits when virtually every analyst predicted painful death to shareholders and averaged 16.9% dividends for 3 1/2 years while "the experts" hid in the closet and hoped that nobody opened the door.
Analyst's opinions are a tool, not an investment system. Always do your own D/D and don't be afraid to bet against the grain if your gut steers you into uncharted territory.
Enjoy that wine...
Yank
Anyone following the thread on the Rite Aid Yahoo Finance board and the letter (of dubious origin) which is quoted as stating RAD will file for CH XI and reorganize its massive debt? I have serious reservations about the accuracy of this item, but the poster is a longterm regular on that board and while negative towards the stock, has not previously posted anything that was way out of bounds that I recall.
The possibility of a RAD bankruptcy is not implausable and could have a profound affect on Walgreens S/P during any lengthy re-org period of time. It could also radically shift the leverage PBM's might have in negotiating reimbursement rates with WAG.
Comments or thoughts appreciated.
GLTA,
Yank
I want to add my welcome back to Prudent Capitalist. I hope you will continue to add content and opinion to this message board. We have some solid discussions, here, but more participation can only broaden and improve the investment value of our discussions, whether pro or con.
Thanks for joining and enhancing the conversation.
Yank
Robb, I'm not sure that I have a helpful opinion on how Pessina and KKR may direct future strategy at Walgreens. Just looking at the superficials, my guess is that Pessina would like to see Walgreens succeed in some form of global pharmacy juggernaut with him as largest shareholder and KKR would like to take WAG private, restructure and either sell or re-enter public markets in a few years... rather like the Duane Reade saga of a few years ago.
It's all about money.
Stefano is an operating guy whose Curriculum Vitae reveals a preference for managing growth. KKR's principles have a track record for buying distressed/undervalued assets, taking them private (if public) and grooming them to be spun at a later and large profit.
It will be interesting to find out, over time, if there is a harmonious strategy between Pessina and KKR regarding Walgreens future. My visceral instinct says maybe not so happy...
GLTA,
Yank
Well stated, robb. Thanks for your comments.
I think we all do agree on the macro side of healthcare growth and dynamic change likelihood. The growing cadre of baby-boomers entering their senior years all but assures this.
For many years Walgreens was my single largest holding. I owned a huge chunck of WAG for about 13 years and made very little on it... and far less than I made on other investments during that same period. WAG remains a huge % of my family's holdings, so I am not anti-WAG, just very skeptical of any long term buy-and-hold position since much higher divvy opportunities clearly are out there.
My big objection to current top management is a seeming lack of accountability for the billions of shareholder dollars invested in major M&A adventures that have NEVER been specifically accounted for in any meaningful way. The share price today is WAY below what I sold my shares for in disgust, many years ago. I hung in there for years, waiting for the promised fruit from home infusion, clinics, multitudinous retail acquisitions and so forth.
Based on the enormity of the Alliance-Boots deal, even just the first tranch of same, I want to see some accretion to earnings and revenue, commensurate with the size of the investment and additional debt. Will this occur in the next quarter's report? We will soon see. If not, I think Skinner has the fiduciary responsibility to shareholders to make some meaningful changes.
Enough said.
GLTA,
Yank
robb, I agree with you on not being a buyer. Time will tell how my bet plays out but, at first blush, looks like you might be right. If so, I will not buy Walgreens stock again until Wasson/Miquelon/Crawford are removed from day-to-day operating decisions.
If I lose my bet, hey I get a great steak dinner at Mortons and a lot of really nice Bordeaux. There are no real losers in that mix!
GLTA,
Yank
ps. I will be off-line for a few days. Going to a funeral
Citi's Deborah Weinswig disagrees with Jefferies prognosis. As for alleged achievement of cost savings, there was lots of similar chatter from the previous "Rewiring" initiative and, while claimed a success, the results just never showed up in SGA reported on the income statement.
I would not personally be shorting WAG at the moment because of the potential "flu euphoria" that could drive the S/P up through March or April. However, the quarterly metrics could cast a dimmer view on the logic of shorting. Remember... WAG has traded largely in a range, since its last split. $45 at the top, $25 at the trough. I don't see this changing unless new top operating exec's take the helm.
GLTA,
Yank
I agree and stated earlier that Q1 would be tough on nat gas. I think we could breach $3 threshold.
I will be looking to add CQP and open positions in a few new holdings like CLNE and CHK when the spring floor settles.
Yank
Kudos to Walgreens on collaboration with UAW Retirement Benefits Trust on PAC spending transparency. This issue needs much stronger play in mainstream business media as the cost debate on Medicare and Medicaid starts to step on toes and threaten some of the sacred cows like insurance companies, hospitals, the AMA and other NOTORIOUS, anonymous PAC-spenders to preserve their own little (or large) fiefdoms of wealth from bleeding America with absurd entitlement costs.
The practice of these fatcats hiding behind nom de plumes like U.S. Chamber of Commerce and swinging enormous vote shifts by extravagant television ad spending to preserve their lucrative empires needs to be exposed for what it is... the rich preserving their riches at the expense of the little guy.
Thanks, guys.
Yank
Flu mania is "in the house". See Cramer's piece from earlier in the day.
Yank
milo, I rarely short stocks, sort of like I don't play the "Don't Pass" line in Vegas. If I were looking for a strong short I would considering one of wickedone's picks: Priceline. But there are better plays coming with higher potential returns than shorting WAG for a few dollars gain. There is also the growing potential for retail market players to come down with flu euphoria and push WAG up a lot for very small eventual gains... as happened during the H1N1 swine flu run-up that eventually collapsed after a ridiculous roller coaster ride fueled by daytraders.
GLTA,
Yank
No, robb, I don't think WAG is "Sailing over the Cliff." That implies a deliberate intent. I must correct you with the revised observation the WAG is "Falling off the Cliff" with no evidence of a safety net noted.
Will senior management be given a pirate's escort to the end of Navy Pier for a chilly, planked dip in Lake Michigan?
If so, giving Jack Sparrow a B-o-D seat would be only too appropriate. Hey, maybe Johnny Depp could be hired to play Greg Wasson in the film version.
GLTA,
Yank
For whom the bell tolls...
The next salvo will be when Walmart extends its price-match-guarantee to Pharmacy and publicizes it. The Costco/HEB lowest common denominator Rx price will become the retail industry standard and mailorder will be even less.
As ACA impacts pharmacy Rx's, nobody is going to reward Walgreens with a higher reimbursement than others because they have a brow bar, barristas, sadly-wilted produce or a sushi bar. It will all boil down to cost, and the Express Scripts debacle just proves all the more that the self-serving WAG corporate blustering about convenience and customer-centric-retailing matters not when the retail prescription price is bloated, non-competitive or denied by insurance if the consumer chooses Walgreens over less costly alternatives that are clearly and readily available.
Remember when Wasson, Miquelon and Crawford all but guaranteed huge customer retention during the ESRX dispute? That clearly was a fable. Just like all the billions of investment dollars in home infusion, clinics, online acquisitions and drugchain acquisitions like Duane Reade have had huge, promised outcomes by mnanagement and virtually ZERO accountability for results after completion.
There is "A Day of Reckoning" on the horizon and you know my predictions as to outcome. C'mon, Skinner, prove to us that you didn't exhaust all your testosterone when you fired "The Hamburglar"!
GLTA,
Yank
December numbers continue the trend of decline and results worse than benchmark competitor Rite Aid. I am looking for change at or prior to the Navy Pier Annual Walgreens Shareholder Clusterf^<k.
Remember to submit your questions in advance (not assuring that they will be addressed) because The Peanut Gallery is always gagged by management at the meeting so they can celebrate their reverie of "How Great Thou Art" in the secular group cheer for the execitive suite.
LOL!
Yank
Robb,
It all depends on how you look at things. I think that debt is very much part of the problem because when, not if, interest rates rise we will not be able to pay for anything but debt service. The spending absolutely must be better controlled, as must revenue streams be increased as must pork-barrel crap cease, forever.
Extending the retirement age for Social Security and Medicare only worsens employment opportunities for younger Americans. It will FORCE seniors to remain in the market longer, filling jobs that are thus not available to younger workers who, in many cases, can fill them cheaper with benefits like defined contribution retirement plans vs. the defined benefit plans of their parents and grandparents. The sooner the boomers retire (and sadly die off, over time) the bubble in entitlement costs bursts... assuming that sloppy immigration policy doesn't create a new ocean of entitlement claimants.
The U.S. housing industry is in better shape than you think as housing prices and interest costs have declined much faster than average loss in household income. Housing is not all rosiness, yet, but it will fully recover as is the automobile industry because eventually the old "inventory" must be replaced and as Sandy has accelerated in much of the Northeast.
I agree with you fully on corporate taxation policy which makes repatriating overseas profits very costly. However, the potential offset is the stability of the U.S. economy vs. the extreme volatility in Eurozone and BRIC economies. If the U.S. gets its fiscal house in order, not by gutting all spending or entitlements but, rather, via incisive decisions like means testing, outcome-based strategies and waste and regulatory cleansing then off-shoring of jobs could clearly migrate to returning those jobs to American soil. The big driver in this is CURRENCY valuation... but that's a topic for another day.
This is healthy discussion!
GLTA,
Yank
Guys, I am a little more optimistic for 2013 though I think the Debt Ceiling issue will cloud the first quarter. The one caveat I offer is concern that spending reductions could be so Draconian as to derail the economic recovery. That being said...
I disagree with milo's short on housing. Investors are swarming in many markets like Florida and Michigan. The vultures are concluding we are at a bottom and the bargain opportunities will not be around much longer. Rebuilding after Sandy should augment both housing and automobile sectors.
Obama has 3 key second term objectives and energy independence and export is at or near the top of the list. The recent Shell Oil drilling incident is going to give the EPA impetus to regulate further. This helps nat gas, which I expect will edge downward until summertime. April would be the entry point to accumulate.
Shorting treasuries is a good play for 2013, but being long equities with solid dividends is a better play with cap gains rates capped at 20%. This actually helps WAG if other questionmarks are resolved, there. I actually think WMT might be the better play, though I closed out my Walmart position at $73+ and took the profits for a nice year-end pop.
I will be 90% cash through most of the first quarter... and longer if the debt ceiling garbage further threatens the economy.
GLTA,
Yank