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Re: Robbay post# 528

Thursday, 01/03/2013 6:44:16 AM

Thursday, January 03, 2013 6:44:16 AM

Post# of 3161
Guys, I am a little more optimistic for 2013 though I think the Debt Ceiling issue will cloud the first quarter. The one caveat I offer is concern that spending reductions could be so Draconian as to derail the economic recovery. That being said...

I disagree with milo's short on housing. Investors are swarming in many markets like Florida and Michigan. The vultures are concluding we are at a bottom and the bargain opportunities will not be around much longer. Rebuilding after Sandy should augment both housing and automobile sectors.

Obama has 3 key second term objectives and energy independence and export is at or near the top of the list. The recent Shell Oil drilling incident is going to give the EPA impetus to regulate further. This helps nat gas, which I expect will edge downward until summertime. April would be the entry point to accumulate.

Shorting treasuries is a good play for 2013, but being long equities with solid dividends is a better play with cap gains rates capped at 20%. This actually helps WAG if other questionmarks are resolved, there. I actually think WMT might be the better play, though I closed out my Walmart position at $73+ and took the profits for a nice year-end pop.

I will be 90% cash through most of the first quarter... and longer if the debt ceiling garbage further threatens the economy.

GLTA,

Yank
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