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Keep your sense of humor, everyone, and have a great weekend!
Thanks for the amusing and interesting OT diversion while we wait for substantive news, and for all your informative posts in the past.
“Sell everything including the wallpaper and LIQUIDATE ASAP!”
FWIW: I came "this close" to taking a flyer on CEGE yesterday at 0.15 - 0.16. There was a lot of talk on various boards about an easy double at that price.
I held off, and IMO today's trading shows the wisdom of Microcap's opinion.
Personally, I think that you're on the right track.
IMO, with the exception of #10, all these questions are worth asking. Unfortunately, I expect that you will get no answers.
These days, one of the most discussed words on Wall Street and in our entire society is "transparency." The old paradigm of "need to know" is increasingly being exposed as another way of saying,"I'm going to profit off of this inside knowledge, why in hell should I tell you?"
Many (perhaps most, but there lies the rub) business deals require confidentiality, even secrecy. The problem is the shenanigan-filled borderline between necessary non-disclosure and outright lying.
I suspect that if last year various big name CEOs had issued press releases saying that they were going to receive a hundred mil or so for driving their companies into the ground and that they were fully cognizant that this disaster was imminent but they wanted to get their money before the disastrous collision occurred, some shareholders might have been a bit perturbed.
Unless the open and honest answers to shareholder questions genuinely jeopardize an ongoing negotiation, I can no longer see why these questions should not be answered.
Don't break out the bubbly just yet:
Dow's Monday jump doesn't mean happy days are here again
By Irwin Kellner, MarketWatch
Oct. 14, WASHINGTON, N.Y. (MarketWatch)
-- Monday's rebound in the stock market was most welcome, but it does not necessarily mean that happy days are here again.
There are a number of reasons for Monday's surge starting with the proverbial "dead cat bounce." Stocks had plunged so much in such a short period of time that some bounce upward was inevitable.
Another reason had to do with capitulation. Time and again, when everyone throws in the towel after a prolonged decline, there is a selling climax, which invariably turns out to be the bottom for stocks in that cycle. This is what happened Friday morning, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average
Don't be fooled by the volatility, according to StockMarket Cycles editor Peter Eliades, who thinks the market will test lows again and is in for a long down cycle. Stacey Delo reports. (Oct. 13)And guess who sold at this low point? That's right, the small investor who turns paper losses into actual losses. And the saddest part of this is that many folks sold stocks that were in their 401k plans, meaning that they just lost a big chunk of the money that they were planning to retire on.
On a more positive note, the levels to which stock prices were driven encouraged bargain hunters to emerge from their foxholes. Many well-known stocks with long track records of paying dividends were selling at multi-decade lows by close of business Friday.
Of course, the statements issued by the Group of 7 nations at their meeting over the weekend (which, you should know, had been scheduled to coincide with the annual meeting of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund), indicating that they would act in unison to bolster the financial system by injecting capital into the banks and virtually guaranteeing their loans, helped a great deal as well.
Indeed, while the stock market has provided all of the fireworks of late, it is really a sideshow to the frozen credit markets, which clearly is the main event. And as I observed last week, thawing them out involves restoring confidence among the banks, themselves, not to say between the banks and others.
From what I can tell, this new plan seems likely to work a lot faster than the previous gambit, which called for the Treasury to decide which securities it should buy from the banks and at what price. Judging by their leap on Monday, the markets think so, too.
But sometimes it pays to look before you leap. The Dow is still nearly 4,800 points below its all-time high set just over a year ago. And the U.S. economy is in a recession.
Irwin Kellner is chief economist for MarketWatch, and is Distinguished Scholar of Economics at Dowling College in Oakdale, N.Y.
"Sellers will be crying this time next year"
I couldn't agree more, but for some people it's a financial or "emotional" necessity.
FWIW: I loaded up on four stocks- two long-term holds and two traders- that were at prices too good to ignore. I'd have bought more but ran out of dry powder. Best of luck to all.
OT: "we could use one of your cartoons about now."
I was informed that some people felt that they lowered the grave and noble tone of this august assemblage and detracted from our pondering, weak and weary, over many a quaint and curious volume of forgotten lore.
"... we are very cognizant of the negotiating leverage that third-parties may derive if they are allowed to use a company’s artificially low stock price to their advantage."
A point I was trying to make in my earlier posts about GTC.
GG-
Please see my posts wondering about the same thing:
messages 14325 and 14394.
I don't see how a buyout at the current PPS would be pretty!
Jesse-
Thanks for your prompt and courteous reply.
I think that you and I, and most of the investors on this board and elsewhere, agree that the science, the current and future products, and the prospects of GTC in general are great.(I'm not sure why one would be here otherwise, but that's another topic!) Yes, the stock might be at $4-$5 someday, hopefully soon.
But I look at Dew's chart of Biotech Buyouts. Wouldn't you agree that a buyout at a 1400% premium to market would not only be a biotech record but an all-time record in any category? I think that we both know that it's ridiculous.
I guess I'm just saying that for me, personally, I don't see a current buyout happening, or at least one that would satisfy most of us. FWIW, I bought another good-sized chunk last week and got my PPS average down to the mid-sixties, so I've just decided to hunker down and wait.
Jesse-
On another topic:
I wish that I would have received just a bit of thoughtful feedback to my message of the other day. One heavily discussed possible event has been the fabled Big Buyout. The average seems to be occurring at about 60% of PPS. But at our current ridiculously depressed share price that would not cause me to do back flips.
Any thoughts?
As Dew and others have pointed out, the likelihood of a merger/buyout becomes more likely every day.
What concerns me is that even if a buyout occurs, what would be the price? Based on Dew's table of recent biotech buyouts, the median premium to market seems to be about 60%. At the current PPS, that would yield a buyout price of about 0.50 a share!!!!
I hope that I'm looking at this incorrectly, and would honestly welcome any input.
Completely OT: I occasionally look at your board because I used to own some PPHM, and I still think that the science is promising. (Currently I'm in the middle of losing a fortune on GTCB or else I'd jump right in and lose some here. )
What I'm thinking is that if one of the genius number-crunchers on IHUB somehow came up with a numerical method to calculate the amount of posts compared to the PPS movement of a stock, you guys would win hands down!!!!
But seriously, times are tough, best of luck.
>...GTC will be taken over and maybe for a song relatively to its potential economic value.<
I'm speaking just for myself, of course, but I suspect there are more than a few people who feel the same:
I'm not in love with the company or the science, I'm just an investor, and this is getting old. If the company was purchased and the share price went to $1.00, I'd sell that morning for a decent gain and move-the-heck on!
Absolutely, I agree.
I'm just saying that when many, many average people hear the word "transgenics" they think of "Frankinscience". We know that's silly, as do doctors, scientists, the FDA (hopefully!)but the public perception is still there.
'A lot of people in the US have serious trouble accepting the concept of "playing with nature"'
I might have posted this many months ago, but:
Especially in today's growing "Christian nationalist" movement, this is how cloning is viewed:
http://www.jesus-is-savior.com/End%20of%20the%20World/Genetics%20Nightmare/coming_genetics_nightmare.htm
Our Allies In The "War Against Humanity"...uh, I mean "Terror"
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26469519
Last 30 Seconds of Trading: 0.53 to 0.48
Damn, that sucked!
I'm the last person in the world qualified to comment on the science, but it just seems like a "panic selling" situation. Thanks for the input.
AMLN a short-term play from here for a quick 20%?
Would welcome any input...
I don't have the slightest idea what that means.
But as far as labels go, sir, I believe that yours is accurate.
>the only luck I have...people can jinx each<
You obviously have a strong belief in terms like "luck" and "jinx".
When you stopped telling your friend what you were doing, you both did better in the market. So one caused the other. Hmmmm...
Here's a bit of a refresher in logical thinking:
What are Logical Fallacies That Incorporate Cause-And-Effect Mistakes?
http://www.wisegeek.com/what-are-logical-fallacies-that-incorporate-cause-and-effect-mistakes.htm
"If you can keep your head while all about you are losing theirs...you probably don't understand the situation." -Anon
OT: My "humor" has a point and a purpose.
You've got a difficult task monitoring this or any board. What exactly is pointed and what is pointless?
I'm not trying to single out one person, but just for example:
In the last few minutes I see post #12564, responding to oneself (that's always seemed a bit strange to me, but that's another topic.) The post adds absolutely...totally...nothing. Nada. Zilch.
The post to which it's responding adds absolutely...totally...nothing. Nada. Zilch.
Talk about bandwidth-wasting noise!
This self-referential, unsubstantiated, regurgiative, almost stream of consciousness-type posting infects virtually every message board on the net, so it's certainly not limited to our small island.
No big deal. One of these days I'd certainly like to make some money from this stock!
Jesse-
My little photos- not serious stuff, of course, but usually containing my point of view and a bit of truth- were deemed to be lowering the always on-point and ultra-professional tone of this board.
They obviously did not belong with the incessant gnawing of the same bone; endless & obvious FUD; Youtube songs; interminable and bizare speculations about everything from bankruptcy to a Bill Gates buyout; analyzing body language and skirt lengths; baseball and basketball trivia; and repetitive posting & boasting about specific trades to illustrate what a fabulous Wall Street mover & shaker one is.
Not to mention that they were poor stuff indeed when compared to the invaluable substance of such hard-news gems as:
"I'm just an animal searching for a home and hoping that this stock will make my dreams come true. And youhooewewewe?"
Or the classically germane and scientifically illuminating:
"Everyone who owns this stock is a loser. I own this stock. I am a loser."
FWIW, I still have 100K shares at 0.73 average. Just waiting.
The Bush Team Hard At Work On The Fourth Of July
"Deterrence is the art of producing in the mind of the enemy... the FEAR to attack. And so, because of the automated and irrevocable decision-making process which rules out human meddling, the Doomsday machine is terrifying and simple to understand... and completely credible and convincing."
>The 200 DMA vs buyout price for biotechs will just not pan out...
You're probably right, I was just exploring a line of thought that was suggested by a post on the GTCB board.
I think we'd both agree with what Dew recently wrote:
The stock market can be notoriously inefficient, but the market for buying and selling drugs and drug companies is generally quite efficient.
>Several of us on the JAV board are asking the same question. It appears that value decline breeds the hope (desperate, IMO) of a juicy deal to reinflate shareholder value and allow a return of investment to above water and also be done with the risk in one fell swoop.<
Yes, the same discussion is occurring on the GTCB board. Hopefully our hope is not of the desperate variety, but you are exactly right about the motivation behind it: Who doesn't want shareholder value reinflated? Who doesn't want a return of investment to above water?
>Recent Biotech Buyouts at a Large Premium<
Dew-
I'd certainly like to see a better numbers person than I do this, but...
While KOSN's buyout price was a 233% premium to the previous day's close, it was a 57% premium to the 200 day MA.
While COLY's buyout price was a 167% premium to the previous day's close, it was a 33% premium to the 200 day MA.
I stopped there (too much darn work, I have beer to drink! ) but I suspect that with some exceptions, one would find the same pattern.
I'm certainly no statistician, but this might support the thesis that many of these buyout premiums are not quite as dramatic as they appear.
RE: Recent Biotech Buyouts at a Large Premium
Dew- I've been thinking about this lately re GTCB.
I posted a comment on that board about Wednesday's 400% premium to market buyout of MEDE. One poster countered that while this number seemed impressive, the precipitous decline of MEDE's share price up to that point had to be taken into account. I think there's some validity to this.
It would be a time-consuming exercise, but I wonder if a more accurate assessment of a deal would be to compare the buyout price to a long-term moving average of a stock, or some similar rubric that considered the bigger picture.
Your thoughts? TIA.
OT: I see that the healthcare technology company MEDecisions (MEDE) is being bought for more than four times the closing price of the stock on Tuesday. Not to mention that the share price had fallen over 70% last year and 40% this year.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/rbssTechMediaTelecomNews/idUKBNG31563620080618
Once again, IMO, this shows that while the street prices companies on past performance, prospective partners/buyers consider potential.
Re GTCB, one can only hope.
OT: >Goetfonder, don't forget that GTC was not even able to introduce ATryn in the States without the help of these Byzanthine countries!!<
He's using "byzantine" as an adjective, meaning very intricate or over-elaborate; comes from the architectural style of the Byzantine Empire.