Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
I don't know man. All I know is they engineer it (it's an ETF after all) switching horses around. When they run out of horses then it goes down.
I attempted once upon the time to make a spreadsheet to figure them out, almost got there, but dropped the thing as I found the energy spent on that is not efficient as I lack some key elements to "decode" the models, plus they change models just like bank codes to prevent just this type of thing - we see this in form of "erratic" and "senseless" inexplicable market behavior now and then.
The concept however is rather useful as can be used to fish for good trades.
i.e. if AAPL was ignored for a while and those high beta stocks horses are getting tired, it's a great probability that they will use the AAPL horse soon so you can look at AAPL and position on it an yey, run with it as they sure enough will switch the pump on it.
GE was a great example recently down on the DIA corner, jumped like crazy, a stock that usually takes it easy
it can't be much downside with QQQ and IWM holding up.
However,
IF those do break, well, then things will deteriorate. The day is young and dip buyers better watch the screens and be nimble as it started to wobble a bit..
I don't think any crash coming but just NEW-normal market behavior..
I have no problem poking fun at those entrenched into some wrong thinking, ignoring reality at any cost. It's good joking material.
With bears we have a problem. While it's fun to poke the jokes and fun at them, the problem is that in my mind I know for a fact that they are correct and then some in their basic arguments. And this fact ruins the fun.
Bears were crazy prior to 2000 bubble burst. The fundamentals AND the technicals were all bullish.
This time around, post 2000-ish, the technicals are bullish but the fundamentals are bearish (except with one exception, the feds which is bullish).
I suspect next time around when the market will come down with a vengeance, whenever that will be, it will be a reverse of situation, where bulls will be abused and laughed at for years to come just like it has been happening to bears. I have no idea when that will be.
Laughing is good :)
funny parody and we need fun.
However, I don't see any supporting analysis of crash-2016 or whatever other than "it must happen at some point" or "bears must be right at some point".
"Could be this", and "may be that" are more of the same.
And it doesn't matter what the minority or majority does, think or say, it only matters what I am doing and if it is right.
Sometimes you had a good article
If this was just for fun then good job
yeah, the volume is the fuel for market moves, traditionally anyway.
But in majority of cases the key as I see it is the average volume. (they usually adjust volume in charts post stock split accordingly, so averaging will take care of it beautifully)
Deviations from this average is the true picture.
People use all types of averages, so I'm not having an opinion on that much, but it must be averaged.
Where you don't need averages of volume are breakouts and phases. In those examples volume can stand by itself for each day.
So absolutely, at the end of the day no matter how we look at it the volume is a crucial factor.
jimy I agree with your math
...the way you presented it.
Also, I wasn't referring to less money based on fees from transactions, although that is not a negligible factor either having said that.
Hurrying to find mistakes with my point, you ended up making a mistake.
look at the volume
It shows less participation. It also means by definition less money is made. It's a very logical consequence. Now who wants less money? NOBODY that's who! So they have to attract the participation. Grinding (up) is one factor what caused the rather dramatically low dropped volume, so they will have to change that, don't they.
PATIENCE friends, they will let it down. Suck it in for a bit longer, that's all. Drink, have fun, and wait them out. They WILL drop this charade mark my words. You can take me on the record if you want, I don't mind.
I listen to music, mind family, stuff, games, studying, you name it.
HAVE FUN - it will help with being patient, I know it for a fact
As daytrading is concerned DEEJ is right, too small volatility to make a good RR trade.
Inside ETF however thing are totally different, so if you want to push trading you have that avenue. See AAPL etc for edification.
Just be mind oriented that these charlatans ROTATE the horses!
Again, HAVE FUN
yes, they rotate the "pistons" driving the ETF.
When AAPL rises, the other (crap) are down or lagging and vice-versa. It's engineering 101.
SPY is no different.
I think it's also a computer generated or controlled action as it would be rather difficult for a human to do.
QQQ has 100 components.
This would be easier to see with DOW as it only has 30 components.
yep, all indicators lag, some badly some less but all do. There are some saying Williams is NOT lagging bot forecasting. I have seen some of that so I believe there is something with this Williams after all, but dropped the issue many years ago as I moved on.
Using an indicator by itself even if lags it should make good trades and that's what counts. But this only comes with choosing the right indicator for the present market conditions.
Dissing the indicators is not helping lagging or no lagging. An indicator will tell (indicate) you that "it's time to".
Then you can go in with different approach to make your decision. So indicators do help and quite a lot.
I trust indicators but never initiate a trade based on an indicator alone. An indicator will help you focus on what happens and add confidence which we all need.
there is always an amount of gambling even if it's small.
The gamblers are those buying or shorting and hoping.
The less gambling comes with using charts, and the least gambling (but still some gambling remains) is with those using the indicators and charting correctly.
Funny you said indicators don't mean squat but then you point out an indicator that works, the everyday new highs.
It shows you chose too use one of the correct indicators :)
The proof that it's always an amount of gambling involved is in the fact of what you feel when you initiate a trade. If you buy, then you HOPE you are correct, and when you sell you HOPE you are correct. You are never certain 100%
the AH trades, in particular the big blocks are of a special breed.
And these can even occur inside the market hours, and often do if you look for it - major outside market executions!
It is a quite fascinating underworld. To understand them you have to read a fair amount of boring stuff in some books on market executions (did it). These orders completely bypass the system.
In other words the bid in the (seen) market could be 50k while such an order could dump ONE MILLION at the same price or lower and the market would not even flinch, the 50k bid remaining untouched!!!
Don't take my word for it, watch the market at such times and you will see how spot on is what I described.
Fascinating per se, but unnerving for me, ugh, cheaters
Distribution is the biggest form of true market Resistance there is (accumulation is the opposite).
Resistance in general is from a bunch of small traders like us, the small fish.
Distribution is none of that, unless when coincidental. Distribution is the Big Money, the whales, dumping SLOWLY some or most/all of their MASSIVE positions.
Since they are the ones that matter, the PUMPers , they'll either let the market slide/drop on its own, or "help it" drop (faster).
Usually distribution takes longer periods, not a couple of days (see recent SPY grinding). Reason being the sheer amount of shares needed to be dumped while carefully not to damage the market , in small increments bot controlled to not induce a reversal/selloff prematurely.
Looking at SPY channel is quite easy to see these zones, often roundish or flat or grinding wedge.
When prices drop after such a period, it validates the period as distribution.
The next step is to find the best way to triangulate these zones, to uncover the pattern to be able to extrapolate and find the next upcoming one.
In SPY it is seen beautifully insiy the numultiyear channel.
And because it's multiyear, such a long time, it has now momentum thus credibility to continue.such
A break of it will reveal that our Big Money are turning around or moving away.
Another form of distribution is progressive, when market seems normal but the volume is drying up. In same category falls also the large crazy (5%) swings (like the period we just had).
Spotting distribution and accumulation is critical because you don't want to find yourself positioned against the Big Money , which are normally in bed with the fed...
SPY is grinding, but not on some metrics I have where it is moving at a breakneck speed of 300-400% above its own valuations.
Unless they push and push and take SPY parabolic it will correct anywhere between -3% to -5% in a hurry
I have no fear or slightest doubt standing behind these metrics
Even the darn chart screams distribution.
Question1 is, are people afraid to load calls when that correction soon will happen?!
Question2 is, are the people that will buy the calls hold on to them for bigger pay, or chicken out at the slightest big-boys market wiggle and sell them cheap?!
We will quite soon be there IMO
no need to be prudent it is clear bottom
you just have to be ready to ride it lower and buy (more) in increments
Gold has other (chart) issues but on the daily chart alone it shows a big-boy money-trail (buying)
there is a -5% downside risk so compute that in the increments calculations for positioning
it is sure money IMO
(aforementioned USD topping should also push the gold, just saying)
Nice illustration of oil bottoming
The chart would say "when the money (dollar) is trash we better have OIL instead"...
Oh, BTW, the copper is in similar pattern with oil.
On this note, there has been a huge disconnect between markets, DOW especially, and copper downtrend, as they did not drop the markets with the copper as traditionally was the case, they TOTALLY IGNORED it. Now with copper bottoming and likely rallying they could herald it as a "good news" for the pump propaganda machine.
When you are very very frustrated it only means that the market is doing what is supposed to do in your case. The market is supposed to frustrate and as much as possible.
Open an intraday chart, look to patterns, then knowing that they're out to get you (frustrate) and likely not repeating prior patterns, try to figure out what they'll do likely next.
it looks like those holding puts will see a profit tomorrow
They too need a pound of flesh to remain in the game
IBB looks more top heavy, while tech tries to hide the negativity to the last tick
is there any quick way to separate sectors of QQQ components?
some signals pointed to shorting on friday but that turned around, not often you see that fake
with correct stops you can jump the fakes and ride the reals
no I didn't short
I'm not that brave to go against the trend and fed and bots
That's precisely what will happen when US will finally enter the stage of 3rd word country , people will move on to the next promised land.
Indeed, ...simple!
It has bee happening throughout the human history, no fail.
It will get there. The politicians always do it.
Not bad exit of longs to bank it out from the sharks, but you should be prepared soul-wise to sweat some more grinding to upside, no one knows 100%. One reason is that the channel top was not really tagged and since it's rising, the room grows.
While any sell signal at this point could be used to short the pig having the top of the channel in your back as protection, we don't really know what the manipulators as insane as they are could do, so the safest course of action is go to cash (like some do), let the crooks have their fun, then reload in correction.
Sitting on profits IN HAND knowing you can buy a correction is not a bad thing.
Stochastics had a struggle on the way up along with the price (you can mention the low volume too if you like), and we saw the darn grinding day in and day out. Now we could see a violent plunge down as stochastisc heralded other times in same situations. But if stochastics shoots down soon (and will!) and the price does not really follow, it means they only reset the stochastics through slanted sideways action, sooooo BUY the pig at that point (1-4 months later should follow a realistic weakness and selling period so it's a medium trade. In our case a such weakness would be at about Jun-Jul - summer lows).
I updated the chart
like I envisioned, they had to let this day to be green.
And it should be at a minimum of o.5% and it is.
They did it even better, they made it red in the morning. This way, the red, highlights/magnifies the feel for the otherwise pitiful green.
If I'm correct (I failed few times, yes, but 70% correctness) then the cycle ahead is at most half as strong as this , if not outright seesaw or correcting.
The secret lies in the directional percentage move from today. It's a long story.
None of us know for sure not me not the biggest bull or bear, but the algos will run with the numbers at hand.
All the restriction on my charts are removed after today as we came pretty close to upper channel thus recharging the setup to strong bullish once again. While it didn't really touched the upper channel, it did in fact go and close to higher levels than the last distribution phase, and this is good enough.
(Ignore the Dec 2014 BS tick)
Now you have once AGAIN a 100% GUARANTEED profitable trade (big money mind you - you can put the farm! just not all at once, just 1/3, to be able to average the bottom of channel)
For those thinking Greece was a reason I say NO. Greece was not and never will be of any significance. Even if the mighty Germany go down is of no consequence. This is a market run by a matrix with algos and unlimited money supply. The only danger is if those in control of the matrix would turn the money cannon against the bulls (buying shorts) and shoot merciless. The channel enable us to see if or when this could be a problem.
As always, being at the top of the channel brings joy for we can CONFIDENTLY make EASY GUARANTEED PROFITS, but in the same time it tells us that NOW it is in DISTRIBUTION ZONE. This means Longs should be AT MINIMUM sold half if not entirely liquidated. Who likes to ride the correction down?...
IWM looks like a weak dog among wolfs in such a bullish day, and this is not bullish - barely scrapping by a measly green.
I will not be surprised to see a bit more LIMITED upside next week, grinding it or whatever, but IMO the bulls' dance is over for this cycle.
Thanks DEEJ
Nice to see you beating the market :)
Myself I try to focus more on swing trades ...for now
you said yesterday and I quote: "they will work it out".
This implies Greece brings leverage to the table.
Otherwise they'll be dictated an outcome, not negociating.
Now you say they don't have leverage.
Both those two statements can't be right.
it bounced off support of 208.75 and likely will bounce down the former support (broken) 209.35-45
I'm just retesting/rehearsing this old stuff
A split buy netted 0.3% profit on long side in a down market (higher profit with options)
I suspect we revisit that support
the other ST support is at -1% at about 207.5ish
of course the exit target would be this former broken support
that's intraday
If goes there as a close then it's a different story
I'm a bit surprised they let any selling to occur today , they didn't have to.
there are no "other options" for Greece or US even!
They can NEVER pay their debt, never ever.
US is printing money to dilute it (see QE infinity), but in Greece case that option isn't there, so there only thing remaining is to NOT be asked to pay EVER !
This can be under disguised wording like "extension" or "loans" , "more loans" then "more loans" then "more extensions" then "new conditions" etc etc, but it all come down to one and only one end: NEVER pay anything, basically "write down" and "forgiveness".
Question in my mind is why the Germans would go along with it. The only answer I can come up with is that they wait for more countries to be lax and become "Greeked" (BANKRUPT) , thus conquering them from economic side.
By by sovereignty !
Basically Germany's goal is not stopping at Greece.
We do have the PIIGS for starters don't we..
Countries that did not fall in this EURO scheme are smart, like UK for example.
FREEDOM is PRICELESS
dry volume above resistance, or above resistance that matters, is absolutely of no consequence, it's normal.
I mean think about it, how many people are that good or that lucky to ride it in that area? NOT MANY. And since they didn't sell, they won't now. Meanwhile, others on sidelines feel bad missing out, so they slowly slowly will step in.
This makes a low volume.
The high volume is when a lot of money or people rush in. This is not the case above a resistance with the exception (!!!) when there are a lot and I mean A LOT OF SHORTS right there.
Going above resistance and no volume it means shorts are either too small to matter/see, or none. This is bullish.
Problem with this (bullish) picture/scenario is the following:
WE ARE TALKING ABOUT AN INDEX NOT A STOCK !
For a stock the above explanation is fine 100%.
For an index on the other hand it shows trouble as index represent a lot.
In a nutshell an index running rampant spells the opposite of what the pundits want us to believe, it spells the demon of inflation, THE inflation, MONSTER INFLATION that is, which is great in short term forcing people to buy stuff as the money is dirt, thus pushing economy in ST, but like a powerful drug will kill the host (economy), and once started is very hard to stop (just like drugs).
So for stocks here and there is fine and dandy, normal stuff, but for index is toxic.
A great example of this story is Turkey stock market when it went to the sky, but inflationary, and in real terms they were normal to pitiful gains while the inflation was insane.
What's to gain if the stock market triples and everything else (prices) triples as well?!! So in one hand you have 300% gains but your dollar devalued by -300%, so it's a wash. And a wash would be nice scenario, it goes worse than that.
The gains are only when they are real, when you gain money and prices are the same, that will make you and the country wealthy.
My take and hope is that they will at least try to keep it under control and won't let this inflation demon out. On that premises alone I extrapolated their own inflationary agenda and came up with my valuation thinking/hoping they will keep sticking with it. So while they have the money printing on their side, on that above valuation metric they MUST back down and selloff the market or correct if you will, just to maintain orderly inflation (which is already too high anyway mind you).
remember, QQQ+IWM must weaken for SPY to drop!
Any one of those shows strength and there is NO downside!
I did tell you so!
As you can see not one but both are green, and QQQ in particular which I fully chart for my trading, shows no weakness whatsoever.
So yeah
Valuations scream stop. On that account alone (forget economy BS) I bet it will correct with a vengeance. That's all I can say.
SPY intermediate Top is at about 212 from my channel perspective (not that it can't spike above it, real or fake as they did last year), so about a remaining slim +1%, and from valuation perspective is way way WAY over the top.
Those two pressures should unite to take the market down in a correction.
I prefer the SPY to hit 212 to have a valid strong channel again. If it doesn't though, well, then it can get a bit ugly as I'm not the only one looking at that channel from what I gather and mass unloading of big money positions should be felt and then some.
No matter the case the market remains bullish and in uptrend.
A market gap down will be bought !
Especially since it's the first dip/gap (if any).
It's just normal market behavior.
It's going to the moon, but they don't want too many in the rocket !!!
So we have these gyrations to shake the unwanted passengers (aka ma and pa) that must be left behind in misery while the big money want to get alone on the moon all for themselves!
I fought my computer today, going away fixing, etc, and was away from the market for the most part. Good thing I didn't miss much as the market is NOT in ST top mode just yet. It's trying, I give it that, but not trying too hard.
Meanwhile while fixing my computer I was hearing they say Greece is asking for a 6 month extension???????
Geez, what a BS. I bet that's going to happen, it will be used as bullish (what wasn't), and then ... August (nearing September-October) when it will end, they'll use that to hammer a top? Just speculating here.
It's not a Greek drama but a Greek comedy (joke being on the Germans..!).
The question remaining is will the manipulators BS first in the media about a Greek "problem" making a nice correction on that BS, or just gun the market up up up.
None of us can really tell it, so we'll have to chart these waters for clues.
I beg to differ. I see VIX is always correct IF you apply regular charting methods. I begun to watch it more than before and I see it has a steady charting course (downtrend that is).
I don't chart VIX exactly like other stocks so I can't tell with 100% certainty, but from what I did evaluate it seems to adhere to same laws of chart gravity as say SPY does.
If and when I see an anomaly on VIX I'll post about it.
IMO VIX is typically "jumping the gun" as it's in effect a fear/greed grounds (more on fear side). Usually it should be ahead of the curve, but I've seen it lagging too, so I guess it's complacency tainted at such times.
u238ed, I wonder about the "huge" part in your statement. Was it an expression gotten out of excitement , a wish, or there is actually something behind it pointing to "huge" vs just a typical corrective swing?
Maybe you can clarify
I know exactly what I need to ride this
For now it is in the 'be patient' mode. This begets discipline. I have both hard earned.
The oil dip is a lil concerning, but understanding due to need for shaking weak hands at resistance, so I'm going to add on any selling of oil. So far I tripled my initial investment, a calculated averaging, so if it goes up even a little I will get even the deep red pilot position in green. (oil already +1% from lows as I write - so much for my hopes they will let me buy low oil)
---
On another note, I noticed a disrespectful conduct on top (..of course...) of senseless support for useless and outright detrimental nonsense.
This triggers me to withdraw my tips helping offer.
You know who you are.
..Enjoy!
I don't understand the mind of some people RUSHING to self harm themselves mindless..
..PRICELESS
Johny, in light of their past deeds I see bac a wrong source for pro opinion. This was the crux of the issue.
Why not sitting with it instead of going off totally unnecessary.
Now your post even became inflammatory and personal, again, unnecessary.
The market is in UPtrend. The market made 400% profit/appreciation. That was the 400% about. It was not about me as you twisted it. Nothing was about me or you.
I guess your anger stems from you seeing the market's continuous rise in uptrend in face of your continuous careful selected negative articles.
I am looking for long trades as per technicalities, and hopefully help some of the decent people to trade profitably.
I don't have an agenda to continuously seek negative opinions and articles to throw traders off.
I am hopeful that the few people that agree with your NON-technical posts (!) , take it seriously and bet their money against the market as per your posts and one-sided articles.
We will both be happy ;)
johny, let's clarify few things as you, for some reason, obviously ignored some parts of the post.
I'd appreciate if you don't edit and then misinterpret my posts.
1. I have nothing against negative comments or commentaries.
2. But negative commentaries are NOT equal. It means some are of biased distorted or even unprofessional and unethical form.
BOA is one of them. MarketWatch or whoever, they are on;y the middleman, the trojan horse.
You have been posting negative commentaries and articles and I did not care. It was the BAC that I see as a tainted source, that's it.
3. The market is in an uptrend and finding trades that go long is the thing to do and majority is on this opinion and that includes bog money and smart money.
You say you don't advise anyone, but in fact the negative articles make traders unsure of their hand when they look at the up-trending market for a long trade, so it induces fear in them.
I have been saying to trade long, and while you tell me don't advise, you advise me to not advise them (to trade long in an up-trending market!!)
This is not about you ! It's a bout facts.
Lat but not least you DO say/agree we have a right to an opinion.
p.s. just check the reputation of the article writers.
Bank of America? A bunch of incompetent bankrupt handouts?
And I have to care what they say?
Be serious.
I rather listen to Bush's priceless clips.
Oh, btw, what's up with the fear mongering articles?
Negative articles could be useful but not when they are poor and bad jokes.
I suggest you look at the ROARING market for how thing are and where they're going!
We all know economy is not great, but in case you didn't understand, we're here to ride the market, pure and simple.
We're rather too busy making money to find time to waste on headfake articles.
Market move is unbiased zero game and is the only truth. That's because MONEY TALKS!
Everyone should be busy making money !
400%+
and going
I saw weakness in the morning but it was undone.
As stated charts never showed weakness. The weakness I saw was of the lowest/earliest grade - sometimes it's fabulous sometimes is not. But the momentum never gave up bullishness of ST.
Now it still has to climb another 1-2% to charge the LT channel positively. A fail of that here will usher in a lot, and I mean A LOT OF SELLING. This bullishness slow cooking buy buy buy up up up will be reversed 180 degree. BUT, if that 2% is given, then we have a renewed game with 100% GUARANTEED (big mind you) profits.
Coming back now and wow, it closed at highs, boy oh boy.
It is pretty simple explanation. The buyers do NOT use their own money. It has all been federal taxpayers' money (other peoples' money basically - forget the constitution and equal rights).
The bulls of this board have every reason to laugh. Don't hold it against them.
Buying at new high is always a good trade, or so the theory goes anyway.
I will wait for a dip to buy though.
Meanwhile I watch my OIL going +6% up for me today on my doubles.
I will buy more on OIL dips. This time I ride the big guys (big only because in bed with fed). ...Oil will be open way before the US market...
Advice for those holding LT puts. IMO is not a great thing to face decay and capital loss. It's better to wait for momentum to subside and only then take those puts at whatever low price will be at the time.
Well, you guys have a great long weekend.
I sense weakness, but not yet developed in charts.
Soon the price will IMO trade bellow first half hour which will bring in the revealing of the weakness
Even then is not weak enough to short just yet imo, so I'd let it show a bit more
Today I can't bee on/watch the computer too much, ugh
Intermittent
Edit/update : OK, I saw more weakness that developed. While it is still too early to tell, I feel shorting stands a more than 50% chance for profit. Short from anywhere you like but I'd short anything above 209.3 (so even nearing that, like now actually, at 209.25, should be a low risk shorting daytrade adventure) - We will see the rest of the day. I think/expect a drop of about -0.50% bellow red line.